Friday, December 30, 2016

Analysts and arbitrariness

Certain recommendations appear questionable (whether sell-side or buy-side), due to arbitrariness. The reasoning is in three steps:

  1. The analyst sums up an arbitrary number of positives. This is a very selective process, which includes downplaying the negatives.
  2. All these issues are based on public information and hence discounted into the share price.
  3. The analyst could argue that his views are superior to those of the rest of the investment community, and hence these issues are either under-discounted or over-discounted. What follows, is a buy or a sell recommendation.
  4. His superiority could be determined by looking at his past recommendations.
Analysts use arbitrariness to help them achieve their own business goals.

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