Friday, March 24, 2017

Breaking down Amazon's revenues (2)

Here are the absolute numbers for Amazon's 8 revenue lines.
Note: indicative.
Note: from 14Q1 to 16Q4 Prime grew from ~$600m to ~$1.8b.

revenue contribution (%)03-31-201430-06-201431-03-201530-06-201531-3-201530-6-201530-9-201531-12-201531-3-201630-6-201630-9-201631-12-2016
media: Amazon retail4,3063,7704,0135,3233,9123,4253,7995,2293,9883,5923,8905,216
electronics & other gen merch: Amazon retail10,25210,33310,67815,80711,56011,92312,75818,69114,40515,13915,88122,079
media: 3rd party sellers7356857649968357588831,2011,0299601,0981,459
electronics & other gen merch: 3rd party sellers1,7491,8782,0332,9582,4672,6392,9664,2943,7154,0484,4826,174
Content subscr, Other (ads, cc, other)207213213320234235249303329344372516
Shipping rev8498891,0481,7011,2991,3991,4942,3281,8202,0002,1543,003

Thursday, March 23, 2017

Breaking down Amazon's revenues

Amazon supplies different revenue breakdowns:

On a quarterly basis:

  • Products & Services
  • North America & International & AWS
  • Media & Electronics & Other & AWS
  • Shipping revenues (separately)
On an annual basis:
  • Retail products, Retail 3rd party, Retail subscriptions, AWS & Other
  • US, Germany, UK, Japan & RoW
Note: you have to be very careful about what is included in all these items, specifically Shipping, Prime and AWS.

This is what we found for 14Q1 and 16Q4:

Disregarding geographic distribution, this is our estimate for 8 different revenue contributors, based on very few assumptions. We have estimates on a quarterly basis, going back to 14Q1. Our main findings for the period 14Q1 - 16Q4 on revenue contributions:
  • Retail media (12%): falling
  • Retail electronics (50%): almost flat 
  • 3rd Party media (3%): almost flat
  • 3rd Party electronics (14%): rising
  • AWS (8%): rising
  • Prime (4%): flat to rising
  • Shipping (7%): rising
  • Content subscriptions & other (1%): flat to rising
Note that a stable contribution still implies that growth is in line with Amazon's overall 20+% growth.