Thursday, November 29, 2018

KPN CMD 2018: no revenue growth; EBITDA and FCF growth from savings

General

  • Strategy
    • organic sustainable growth (note: growth refers to EBITDA, FCF, not to rev)
      • based on innovative operating model and commercial approach
        • based on premium, vlaue, focus, lean
    • value over volume (esp. in LE segment)
      • not competing for market share
      • consumer: grow the converged base
      • business: stabilise service rev & EBITDA (mid 2020) (note: adj e2e EBITDA, i.e. incl Networks portion (not reported after 2016))
    • lean operating model
    • to accelerate strategy for 2019-'21
    • new technology
      • fiber, 4G/5G, virtualisation/cloud
      • faster, higher customer satisfaction, lower costs
      • enables service switch-off (from all-IP) and copper network switch-off (from FTTH)
    • targets lean, faster & more agile company, more flexible, faster time-to-market, faster innovation
    • 3 prios
      • best smart converged infra (add 1m FTTH HP by 2021)
      • focus on profitable growth (add 300k converged HH, convergence to 70% of postpaid; stabilise adjusted e2e EBITDA on business market)
      • accelerate simplification and digitalisation
  • Financial targets
    • progressive dividend
      • based on sustainable FCF growth
        • based on organic EBITDA growth and stable capex
    • plans cost savings 350m by 2021 (not run-rate, i.e. run-rate 350m is reached mid 2021; opex only, this time; net of restructuring costs and incidentals)
    • opex savings large part from restructuring; effect on FCF: cash out after 6 months (pay out severance), accreditive after 12 months)
    • maintains 2018 guidance
    • capex
      • remains 1.1b EUR/yr (excl. spectrum)
      • shift to access networks (FTTH, 5G), from 33% to over 50%
      • IT/TI lower, CPE lower
      • invest in future-prof technology
    • growing FCF (for progressive dividend and deleveraging)
    • mid term target leverage below 2.5 (incl. spectrum)<2 .5="" font="" incl.="" spectrum="">
    • service revenues to stabilise
  • Other
    • 100 developers in Amsterdam (eliminate 5 Indian developers for 1 in Amsterdam)
    • sustainability: green energy (2011), CO2 neutral (2015), 25% energy redux (2020), circular (2025)
    • T-Mobile/Tele2 merger: no substantial change expected; solid players are good for the market
    • open cable: no short-time effect due to long-running existing contracts with wholesale customers
  • Main risks
    • execution
    • declining revenues
    • cord cutting (FT, TV): no
    • engineering capacity for FTTH roll-out: no

Networks

  • Best networks, enable innovative tech, accelerate (simplification, digitalisation)
  • FTTP
    • currently 2.35m FTTH HP (30%), FTTC coverage 50%, FTTS 80%, accelerate FTTO
    • target +1m to 3.4m FTTH HP (over 40%) by YE 2021
      • regional approach, no nationwide coverage (complement with copper and FWA)
      • trusted relationships with 8 or 9 construction companies for complete service package
      • speeding up from end 2019
    • improvements
      • roll-out 650 EUR/home (cheaper labour and equipment, optimised engineering), to be reduced further
      • design in 20 hr (down from 2 yr)
      • raises utilisation 8 pp
      • pay-back time 50% shorter (result of lower capex, higher utilisation, higher ARPU, lower churn)
  • Copper
    • to finalise copper upgrade 2019 (2500 cabinets for 500k HH on FTTC)
    • plans to switch off copper from 2019, customers to be migrated to FTTP (first in 6 areas)
  • Gigabit
    • to add Gfast (FTTB, 1 Gb/s)
    • total reach 1 Gb/s 45% YE 2021 (40% from FTTH, 5% from Gfast), 200 Mb/s 70%
  • Hybrid
    • for rural
    • to add 200k additional subs with DSL/LTE hybrid (50 Mb/s)
  • 5G
    • plans 5G-ready network (i.e. software upgradeable)
    • massive MIMO
    • "4G connects people, 5G connects society"
    • 5G mostly for B2B
    • 5G field labs (agro in Drenthe, urban in Amsterdam, automotive in Helmond, harbour in Rotterdam)
    • government decision on 3.5 GHz band expected 181218
  • Other
    • single core network, from 5 currently (rationalise, centralise, virtualise (NFV, SDN))
    • decentralised CDN at 160 metro core locations (offload 70% of core traffic, low latency)
    • all-IP 100% by YE 2021; enables legacy switch-off (PSTN (450k users), ISDN (160k users), SDH, 3G)
    • plans 28 GWh power savings 2019-'21
    • target 50% virtualisation YE 2021 (currently 5%)
    • reduce 20 to 2 IT stacks (1 for consumer, 1 for business)


Consumer

  • strategy: best access, grow converged base, value
  • targets
    • add 300k converged HH by YE 2021, 70% of postpad base converged in 2021
    • to raise SIMs/HH 10%
  • FTTH raises NPS 15%, ARPU by EUR6, BB share 9pp, lowers churn 34%
  • we are the best, so we don't need exclusive content

Business

  • targets: stabilise service revenues, stabilise EBITDA (adj, e2e) by mid 2020
  • grow in profitable segments; compete for profitable tenders (in LE segment) only
  • total customers: 350k SoHo, 225k SME, 2k LE
  • to reduce portfolio 50% by 2021
  • to raise connectivity at business parks: 100 Mb/s to 70% (currently 52%)
  • KPN EEN (platform for SME and LE)
    • target penetration to 100% in SME (currently 35%)
    • raises NPS 10 points
    • time-to-market x2
    • low churn (5%)
    • cost to serve -25%
    • 75% fewer IT systems
    • simplified organisation
  • revenue growth SoHo positive, bottoming at SME, still declining in LE

Finance

  • targets 2019-'21: organic EBITDA growth, capex stable (1.1b), FCF growth, progressive dividend
  • past FCF growth from low cash tax (continues), decreased interest (continues; 55% lower o/w 30% result of lower debt, 25% result of lower interest rates), capex (now fixed)
  • now EBITDA growth from opex savings & stabilising rev
  • targets "cable-like margin"
  • opex redux to continue "for a decade"
    • portfolio: rationalise, simplify
    • e2e digitalisation front and back-end
    • all-IP and virtualisation (incl. CPE)
    • IT landscape rationalisation
    • organisational effectiveness
  • execution strategy ESSA (eliminate simplify standardise automate)
  • to provide guidance on FCF, restructuring costs, div with Q4 results (each year)

Tuesday, July 31, 2018

5G auction Spain translates to other auctions and spectrum holdings

In Spain, 200 MHz in the 3.5 GHz band was auctioned for 20 years for total proceeds of EUR 1.41 billion. Prior to that, MasMovil bought 40 MHz for EUR 30 million. This works out to be 0.755 c/MHz/pop/year for the auction and 0.080 c/MHz/pop/year for the MasMovil transaction.

Conclusions
  • Good deal for MasMovil.
  • No matter all the differences between auctions (bands, number of participants, etc.), this may be translated to other auctions. The Dutch 2019 auction would have proceeds of EUR 572 million at the valuation of the Spanish auction.
  • Apparently, satellite stocks respond to these auctions because of the potential 5G spectrum holdings (SES, Intelsat, Eutelsat).

Wednesday, June 20, 2018

Telstra Investor Day: Telstra2022 Plan

Highlights from Telstra's Telstra2022 plan:

4 Key pillars

1. Simplify offerings

  • consumer & SME plans from 1800 to core 20
  • all-digital experience (complete migration consumer & 50% of business by 210630
  • to reduce customer service calls by 33% in 2 years and 67% by 21/22

2. Stand-alone infra business

  • establish Telstra InfraCo from 180701, potential demerger when nbn complete or entry of strategic investor; contains fixed, datacenters, fibre, copper, HFC, international subsea cables, exchanges, poles, ducts & pipes; no mobile assets
  • customers: Telstra, nbn, other wholesale
  • 3k employees
  • assets AUD 11b
  • rev AUD 5.5b, EBITDA AUD 3.3b

3. Simplify structure

  • new operating model & organisational structure TBA July 2018
  • to reduce 2-4 management layers
  • to establish Telstra Global Business Services (point of consolidation for all large scale back-of-house processes and functions)
  • to invest in 1500 new roles, Transition Program for 8k job cuts & training program for those who stay (together funded with AUD 50m)

4. Cost reduction program & portfolio management

  • plans asset sales AUD 2b by YE 19/20
  • to increase cost savings by AUD 1b to 2.5b by YE 21/22
  • underlying core fixed costs from AUD 7b in 16/17 to AUD 4.5b by YE 21/22

5G

  • Plans SDN & 5G, network ready 18/19H1, high-demand areas ready YE 19/20

Guidance

  • transistion from current program to reduce revenues AUD 500m over 3 years; incremental benefits from previous investment program AUD 500m
  • target capex/rev 16-18% in 18/19, 14% in medium term
  • expects fixed & mobile market decline 2-3% in 18/19
  • guidance 18/19 (AUD): rev 26.6-28.5b, EBITDA 8.7-9.4b (before restructuring cost 600m), one-off from nbn agreement 1.8-1.9b, capex 3.9-4.4b
  • ordinary dividend pay-out ratio 70-90% of underlying earnings, special dividend from nbn 75% of net receipts; dividend 17/18 22c

Monday, May 28, 2018

Deutsche Telekom Capital Markets Days 2018 - Highlights

Deutsche Telekom Group
  • Guidance 2017-21: uninterrupted growth for revenues (1-2%), adj. EBITDA (2-4%), FCF (10%), capex (excl US) flat (EUR 12.1b), all units contribute from 2019; dividend 2018 to track FCF (70 c/share over 2017), dividend to track adj. EPS from 2019 (EPS from EUR 1.00 in 2018 to 1.20 in 2021), minimum dividend 50c
  • Not on track 2014-18: capex 2014-18 CAGR 1-2% (CAGR 2014-17 6%), opex 2014-18 down (2014-17: EUR 700m indirect costs down vs. target 1.8b)
  • Plans indirect cost cutting (excl. US) from automation & digitalisation, EUR 1.5b by 2021 o/w half non-staff (real estate, legacy IT)
    • o/w 750m Telekom DE, 400m Europe, 100m T-Systems, 200m GHS
    • All-IP complete in Germany by 2019 (consumer) & 2020 (business), Greece 2019, etc.
    • Staff reduction already implemented (incl. phased retirement)
  • Focus
    • Digitalisation: app (Mein Magenta)
    • Portfolio simplification
    • Automation (1500 bots)
    • Data (analytics, AI)
    • IT transformation (harmonised API layer)
    • Real-time operations (IP/BNG, Access 4.0)

Telekom DE
  • Behind on cash contribution target 2014-17 (2% vs 2.7%)
  • Guidance: revenue growth >1% (MSR 2%, BB 3-4%), adj. EBITDA growth 2.0-2.5%, cash contribution growth 4-5%, capex flat (EUR 4.2b)
  • Target SME revenues EUR 6.5b by 2021E (2017: 6.0)
  • Indirect cost cutting: EUR 300m from automation, 250m from operational excellence, 200m from platform retirement.
  • Drivers
    • Convergence: MagentaEins (HH penetration Europe from 21% (2017) to 40% (2021))
    • Multi-brand mobile: focus on premium brands; IoT, 5G
    • Leverage fiber & TV investments: TV share 50% YE 2021; wholesale revenue CAGR 2017-21 2%, wholesale end-users CAGR 2017-21 1% to 12.3m, wholesale ARPA CAGR 2017-21 2% to EUR 13.5)
    • Customer service: 24 hr problem solving from 66% (2017) to 80% (2021); TRI*M score to 64 by 2021E (2017: 59)
  • Broadband 
    • >50 Mb/s coverage 62% YE 2018E, 95% YE 2019
    • High-speed (50-250 Mb/s) coverage 80% (95% incl. wholesale) YE 2019 (70% access to 100 Mb/s based on vectoring; super-vectoring from 18H2 for 105-250 Mb/s for 15m HH YE 2018, 28M HP by YE 2019)
    • To launch FTTH 2018, ramp up to 2m HH/annum from 2021 (given the right regulatory conditions), possibly in co-investment)
    • IRR target FTTH/B 7.5%
    • Target market share 30% by 2021E
  • Mobile: 27k sites (to add 2k/annum), 80% FTTS; mobile base stations to grow from 27k (2017) to 36k (2021) incl. small cells in urban areas, LTE population coverage from 94% (2017) to 98% (2019), 99% (2020)

Systems Solutions
  • Outlook 2017-21: rev CAGR 1%, adj. EBITDA CAGR 5%, margin 8-10%, capex stable (EUR 400m)
  • T-Systems to return to growth (based on IoT, cloud computing, security solutions), cash contribution break-even by 202E
  • Cost savings >EUR 300m
  • Transformation 2018-21
    • Portfolio focus: 3 clusters
      • Core: fixed & mobile
      • Growth: ICT, IoT, security, road charging, digital solutions, public cloud managed services, SAP
      • Classic IT: managed infra services & private cloud, SI
    • Sales revitalisation
    • Delivery integration
    • Overhead reduction (8 to 5 management layers)

T-Mobile US
  • Outlook 2018: postpaid net adds 2.6-3.3m, adj. EBITDA $11.4-11.8b, capex $4.9-5.3b 
  • Focus
    • Un-carrier
    • Beyond smartphone: Music Freedom, BingeOn, Netflix On US, layer3 TV, 5G, IoT
    • Simplicity & digitalisation 
  • Cost savings >$1b over 3 yr 

Europe (GR, HU, HR, SK, MK, ME, PL, CZ, AT, RO, AL)
  • Outlook 2017-21: revenue CAGR >1%, adj. EBITDA CAGR 1-2%, cash contribution CAGR 2-4%, capex stable (EUR 1.8b).
  • Indirect cost reduction EUR 400m by 2021 (120m from operational efficiency, 50m from simplification, 90m from digital customer interaction, 100m from leaner structure (incl cross-border synergies)).
  • FMC: HH penetration from 26% (2017) to >50% (2021), revenue CAGR 2017-21 25% to EUR 1.7b
  • FMCC (cloud): penetration VSE/SMB 31% (2017) to >50% (2021), revenue CAGR 2017-21 10%
  • FTTH/B 
    • Coverage 17% (2017) to 30% (2021)
    • FTTH/B capex
    • FTTH/B capex EUR 100m (2017) to 300m (2021)
    • HP additions 250k (2017) ramp up to 750k per annum (2021)
    • BB revenues EUR 3.6b by 2021E (2017: 3.2b)
  • Mobile base stations European subsidiaries from 41k (2017) to 47k (2021) incl. small cells (macro cells adds 1k/annum), LTE coverage 99% by 2021

Group Development (part of GHS)
  • Outlook 2017-21: revenue CAGR 3%, adj. EBITDA CAGR 3-4%, cash contribution CAGR 3% (-4% incl. site-roll-out at Deutsche Funkturm), capex flat at EUR 300m (+17% incl. site-roll-out) 
  • T-Mobile US: un-carrier 
  • T-Mobile NL 
    • "Still a long way to go" (SR & EBITDA)
    • Unlimited mobile de-risked, based on capacity expansion
    • Unique incentive scheme
    • Cost cutting 30% of overhead FTE (non-customer-facing) (from early 2017)
    • Initiated towers carve-out (stay at DT)
    • "Dutch market needs LT-viable maverick"
  • Deutsche Funkturm: creating European TowerCo by insourcing tower assets NL, AT, etc.
  • DTCP (Venture Capital)
  • BT stake

Technology & Innovation: 5G
  • Mobile capacity/speed upgrade (i.e. a better 4G). Economic rationale: efficiency gain (opex).
  • FWA to complement FTTH/FTTB in (sub)urban areas. Economic rationale: more cost-efficient & faster time-to-market than FTTH/FTTB (capex). Note: capex 30-50% lower, but FTTH/FTTB TCO better after 20 years (FWA higher opex).
  • Selected new products/solutions (massive IoT or services based on extremely low latency). Economic rationale: new revenue streams (e.g. campus networks).

Monday, May 14, 2018

Vodafone to acquire Liberty Global assets


Vodafone acquires Liberty Global assets for EUR 18.4b o/w 10.8 cash, 7.6 existing Unitymedia debt.
  • Operations
    • DE (Unitymedia; together 25m HP = 2/3)
    • HU (1.8m HP = 43%)
    • RO (3.1m HP = 41%)
    • CZ (1.5m HP = 33%)
  • Valuation
    • EV EUR 18.4b
    • 10.9x EBITDA 2019 (pre synergies)
    • 8.6x EBITDA (post synergies 5 yr)
    • 12.5x OpFCF (post synergies 5 yr)
  • Closing
    • To close mid 2019
    • Break-up fee EUR 250m payable to Vodafone, or payable to Liberty if for antitrust issue.
  • Synergies
    • Cost/capex synergies (network integration, IT/billing simplification, procurement, consolidating overlapping functions) 535m EUR/yr from yr 5 (before integration costs)
    • NPV EUR 6b (after integration costs) o/w rev synergies NPV EUR 1.5b (from cross-selling)
    • Integration cost EUR 1.2b (in first 5 yr).
  • Accreditive to FCF from yr 1.
  • Increases targeted net debt/EBITDA to 2.5-3.0x (pro forma at high end).
  • Liberty Global to provide transitional services to Vodafone (IT, TV platform tech, connectivity, other support) max. 4 yr; pro forma EUR 128m in 2019.

Monday, April 30, 2018

T-Mobile US acquiring Sprint: doing 5G-based FMC after all

T-Mobile US (DT 62%) acquires Sprint (SoftBank 83%)
  • $26b in shares (no cash out), EV $59b: 9.75 Sprint for 1 T-Mobile US (1 Sprint = 0.10256 T-Mobile US = $6.62), EV combination $146b
  • DT to own 42% (voting rights 69% incl. perpetual proxy from SoftBank; SoftBank has certain veto & info rights), SoftBank 27%, to be consolidated by DT
  • synergies NPV $43b (net of $15b integration costs) from network integration & build-out (incl. 5G), sales & marketing, store fittings, advertising, customer support, repairs & logistics, efficiencies in internal IT & billing; run-rate savings >$6b from 2024 (assuming effective from YE 2018; excl. IFRS 16 effects)
  • to close 19H1, subject to DoJ, FCC, security authorities; no break-up fees
  • John Legere CEO, Mike Sievert COO & President, Timotheus Höttges Chair, DT to appoint 9 (incl. 2 indie) of 14 Board members, SoftBank 4 (incl. 2 indie)
  • outlook & dividend DT 2018 unchanged, positive effect on EPS after 3 yr, leverage to exceed 2.0-2.5x (2.9 YE 2019), expects max. 1 notch downgrade (current Moody's Baa1/neg., S&P BBB/stable, Fitch BBB+/stable), return to 2.0-2.5 (i.e. 2.5) by 2021 (1.8 in 3-4 yr)
  • T-Mobile US to redeem all shareholder loans from DT (to reduce directly by $8b to $6.6b)
  • T-Mobile US to pursue Un-carrier strategy; "... will be able to roll out 5G technology more quickly and better than either T-Mobile US or Sprint would have been able to do alone. To do this, the intention is to focus on convergence products combining fixed and mobile communication offerings, a portfolio with which Deutsche Telekom is already very successful in Europe"
  • to invest $40b in first 3 years; to employ more staff than the two previous companies put together (from call center capacity in rural areas, network build-out, maintenance, new stores)


Tuesday, March 13, 2018

Iliad 17Q4: targets maintained, to bid for 5G spectrum in Italy

Most targets were reiterated.

17Q4

  • div 2017 68c
  • acquired 50% stake in Sepia (housing Telecom Reunion Mayotte) in 2017
Targets fixed
  • LT 25% market share BB
  • grow FTTH subs 300-500k/yr from 2018
  • 9m FTTH HP YE 2018, 20m FTTH HP YE 2022
Targets mobile
  • add 2k sites in 2018
  • 3G coverage 95% & 4G (all incl 1800 band) 90% YE 2018
  • LT 25% market share mobile
Group targets
  • EBITDA margin up in 2018, EBITDA margin FR 40% by 2020
  • capex FR 2018 EUR 1.4-1.5b (excl. spectrum & new Freebox launch)
  • FCF (EBITDA - capex) FR >EUR 1b from 2020 from lower national roaming charges (2G & 3G with Orange, expires YE 2020), improved mobile subs mix, nationwide mobile network by 2020
"Almost ready for launch in Italy"
  • in place: infra (10k km backbone) & interconnections, offers & mkt plan, distr. network, full team, testing for QoS
  • launch summer 2018
  • to bid in 5G auction 2018 (700 & 3600/3800 bands)
  • investments Italy 2017: € 314m (o/w 50 for spectrum from Wind Tre, 220 for 1800 licenses renewal until 2029)
  • target: EBITDA break-even at <10 market="" share="" span="">
FTTH strategy
  • virtuous model, first benefits from 18H1
  • medium dense areas (co-finance model) capex < 1000 EUR/home
Macro
  • French corporate tax rate (33%) to 28% in 2020, 25% in 2022

Wednesday, February 07, 2018

Orange BE 17Q4 highlights: Luxembourg impairment, underlying high growth


  • Impairment Orange LU 17.9m
  • MSR -3.3% (+2.9% excl MVNO impact, +6.7% excl MVNO & RLAH impact)
  • Adj EBITDA -21% (-1.8% excl Wallon pylon deal; +11% excl Wallon deal & RLAH impact)
  • Opex related to BB+TV 13.4m (~x2)
  • Rev MVNO-loss impact (Telenet) 2017 on rev -9.1m (17Q4 -15.3m), RLAH impact -36.4m (o/w -8.4m in 17Q4)
  • EBITDA impact MVNO-loss -7.5m, impact RLAH -7.3m
  • Cable business 2017 EBITDA impact -18.5m
  • NB-IoT & LTE-M nationwide
  • Launches unlimited mobile data/voice/SMS plan 180212 (a first in BE)
  • Targets 2018
    • adj EBITDA 280-300m (incl MVNO loss impact -30m on rev [also lost Lycamobile, will lose VOOmobile]
    • RLAH impact on rev -26m & on EBITDA -17m
    • capex (excl cable) flat
    • focus on oper efficiency
    • mid-term BB market share target 10%
    • div 2017 50c
    • started using network data (dropped calls) to identify & target eligible residential customers for a femtocell
    • Big Data for targeted network investments, churn mgt, rev assurance/fraud detection
    • plans one-stop shop (fixed & mobile) for businesses, coop with Orange Business Services

Thursday, February 01, 2018

KPN Q4: FTTH to migrate to PON technology after 2018

Details from the main release

  • Outlook 2018
    • Adj EBITDA flat, capex 1.1b, FCF up (excl TEF DE div), div 12 c/share; Telefonica DE stake 8.6%
  • IFRS 15
    • recognition & measurement of revenues
    • different timing of revenue recognition for handset transactions via direct & indirect channels, and a higher threshold probability in revenue related disputes
    • revenues for handsets sold via direct channels are recognized in the P&L as nonservice revenues at date of the transaction, matching the associated handset costs. Revenues (nonservice) and fees (SAC) for handsets sold via indirect channels are no longer recognized in the P&L, but reported in the balance sheet. The threshold in revenue related disputes (variable consideration) is raised, meaning that revenues are only recognized when highly probable (>75%), up from >50% under IAS 18)
    • impact (from 180101): adj rev -130m, adj EBITDA -100m, FCF unchanged, equity (at 170101) +285m
  • Q&A
    • RLAH more favorable than expected (wholesale costs, VR income, data usage grew multiple (>3x)), effect 2018 comparable (shorter yoy effect but expanded usage)
    • Expects Business Market stabilisation in 1-3 yr
    • 3.5 GHz band crucial for 5G
  • Technology update
    • Fiber reduces latency to 6 ms (DSL 14 ms, LTE 20-26 ms)
    • FTTH reaches 2.3m HH, new build FTTH only, AON in 2018, thereafter migration to PON (not for existing lines), plans access on 3rd party FTTH
    • Stepped up FTTO (after regulation ended)
    • FTTS reaches 80%
    • Bonded V Plus roll-out from 18Q2 (>400 Mb/s), cabinets suitable for VDSL & FTTH, local loop typically 150 meters
    • Hybrid DSL/LTE has 1400 subs (Nijkerk trial), average download 6 to 73 Mb/s (note: DSL is needed for IPTV & fixed IP address, LTE for peaks & streaming)
    • LTE-M nationwide by 18Q2
    • Plans 4 5G pilots: urban, rural, transport & logistics, automotive ("4G connects people, 5G connects society")
    • Plans VoWiFi
    • Network integration
      • Access
        • 1. Combine (hybrid access): FTTC/FTTH & DSL/LTE
        • 2. Massify (facilitate massive device comms)IoT over LoRa, LTE-M and 4G M2M
        • 3. Verticalise (5G for verticals): eMBB (broadband), mMTC (massive), URLLC (latency)
      • Core
        • 4. Rationalise (simplification): all-IP
        • 5. Virtualize (increase scalability, reduce time-to-market): NFV (generic cloud hardware, faster time-to-market) & SDN (smart routing)
        • 6. Decentralise (content closer to consumer): CDN at 161 metro locations (for content caching, core-network offloading, improves experience), edge computing (for 5G, improves latency for automotive, e-health, smart industry)
    • Simplification: phase 3 of simplification will follow (savings 1 & 2 relative to 2016: 570m EUR/yr)
    • IT simplification: originally for 80k subs, invisible for customers, focus on a single My KPN app, focus on open source, added 150 developers in 2017 (total 30 nationalities), time-to-market (halved to 7 days) to be halved again

Wednesday, January 10, 2018

Tele2 acquires Com Hem: target 'untapped customer demand'

Merger announcement & presentation:
  • Acquires Com Hem
    • HH coverage 60%, 1100 employees
    • Results TTM: rev SEK 7.1b, adj EBITDA SEK 2.9b, OFC SEK 1.8b)
    • Merger, Tele2 absorbs Com Hem.
    • Cash (per share: SEK 37.02 SEK) + stock (per share: 1.0374 B-shares) = SEK 6.6b + 26.9% of Enlarged Tele2 = 146 SEK/share (11.8% premium over 180109 closing price, 15.9% premium over -30 trading days)
    • To issue 184.8m new B-shares, total 687.6m shares (o/w 22.8m A, 664.8m B); Kinnevik (to own 27.3% & 41.9% of votes) supports (lock-up 6 mo after completion).
    • To close 18H2 (latest 190331).
    • Refers to EC, prepared to effect pro-competitive measures if required to complete the merger.
  • Total synergies
    • 50/50 from costs (mostly opex) & rev (complementary, cross-selling)
    • Total 900m SEK/annum in yr 5 (65% in yr 3, 80% in yr 4)
    • Integration costs SEK 600m
    • Rentention bonus 12-24 mo base salary for mgt & key employees
    • Accreditive to FCF from yr 1.
  • Management
    • Anders Nilsson (Com Hem) to replace Allison Kirkby as CEO.
    • New Board to be chaired by Georgi Ganev (Tele2), >= 2 Com Hem members (incl Andrew Barron).
  • Targets
    • Increase shareholder remuneration.
    • Target leverage remains 2.0-2.5 (at closing net debt/EBITDA TTM 2.8).
  • Rationale
    • Untapped customer demand
    • Value accreditive
    • Complementary, complete proposition to improve customer satisfaction & loyalty
    • Greater scale & diversification
    • Unlock synergies
    • Revenue & CF diversification
  • 2017
    • Dividend 2017E: 4 SEK/share for Tele2, 6 SEK/share for Com Hem.
    • Combined results TTM: rev SEK 31.8b, adj EBITDA SEK 9.2b, OCF SEK 6.1b.
    • Sweden 72% of revenues & 78% of EBITDA (TTM).
    • Market shares in Sweden pro forma: 28% mobile, 22% FBB, 39% DTV.

Tuesday, January 09, 2018

Altice strategy update: USA spin-off, Europe disposals, both deleveraging

  • To spin-off Altice USA (incl Altice Technical Services US; 67.2%; excl Netune stake) by end 18Q2; 0.4163 Altice USA shares (A (1 vote) or B (25 votes)) for 1 Altice share, CEO Dexter Goei. Altice USA free float from 10.3 to max 42.4% (voting from 0.6 to 47.2%), Next to hold 51.2% of votes.
  • Altice Europe to reorg into France (incl FOT; bought from Int for EUR 550m o/w 300m cash), International (Meo, HOT, DomRep, Teads), Pay TV (content, sports rights, other premium content: Discovery, NBCU), Dennis Okhuijsen CEO
  • Separate mgt teams, Patrick Drahi control of both (President Europe, Chairman USA) via Next.
  • Altice USA plans $1.5b cash dividend prior to spin-off from Optimum facilities o/w EUR 900m for Altice Europe (o/w 625m for debt, to retain 275m).
  • Altice USA plans $2b SBB after spin-off.
  • Altice Europe strategy: turnaround in FR, PT; optimising performance, invest in infra, monetising content (various pay TV models & ads); non-core asset disposals (towers; DomRep; Switzerland; int wholesale voice to be sold).
  • Altice France 17Q4prel: revenue declines in B2B, wholesale, equipment, FY 2017 rev -2%, target opFCF 2018 EUR 1.6-1.7b (incl 300m pay TV content expenses & 200m drag from French VAT changes); Altice Europe net debt pro forma at 170930 EUR 31.0b (5.4x EBITDA TTM), targets 4x leverage.
  • Altice USA strategy: investments in networks & video product, simplification, improved customer service, improve rev growth, complete opex synergies, Altice One (platform), FTTH & MVNO (on Sprint) completion.
  • Altice USA 17Q3 pro forma incl planned div: net debt $22.7b, leverage 5.8x EBITDA TTM, target leverage 4.5-5.0x (reduced from 5.0-5.5).