Showing posts with label WhatsApp. Show all posts
Showing posts with label WhatsApp. Show all posts

Sunday, January 17, 2021

Week 2 in Telecoms, Internet, Media

Corporate

  • Deutsche Telekom: FD: plans to sell T-Mobile NL, EUR 4-5b, PE candidates: Apollo, Cinven, Providence, Warburg Pincus, Apex - Handelsblatt: to sell T-Mobile NL or sell minority of T-Mobile NL + IPO of infrastructure [Deutsche Funkturm]
  • Orange: Spins off Orange Ventures, allocation EUR 350m; focus on cybersecurity, digital enterprise, mobile financial services. e-health
  • Telefonica: Telxius Telecom (Telefonica Infra 50.01%, KKR 40%, Pontegadea (Amancio Ortega) 10%) sells Europe & Latam units (30722 towers in ES, DE and Brazil, Argentina, Peru, Chile; EBITDA AL TTM EUR 190m) to American Tower, EUR 7.7b cash (pro forma 30.5x EBITDA AL), capital gain EUR 3.5b, reduces net debt EUR 4.6b, reduces leverage 0.3 pp; ATC to expand tower network by 3300 in DE, Brazil for $500m by 2025
  • BT: Establishes BT Digital 210401, appoints Harmeen Mehta (formerly Bharti Airtel, BBVA, HSBC, BoA) to head as CTIO: accountability for IT, digital innovation, BT-wide business transformation, data & product strategy - Appoints Howard Watson CTO: network strategy, network transformation & service platforms, cyber & information security; establishes Technology Advisory Board with Daniela Rus, Mike Young, John Stecher, Shweta Sharma, Steve King, Dame Wendy Hall; CSTP Mike Sherman exits, roles move to Digital and CFO
  • Vodafone
    • Vodafone UK transfers 50% stake in Cornerstone (Telefonica O2 UK 50%; 14200 macro sites, 1400 micro sites; 2019/20 EBITDA AL GBP 111ml leverage remains 3.0-4.0, distributes 100% of excess cash) to Vantage Towers (total 82k macro sites in 10 countries), reaches Master Services Agreements for 8 yr; to add 1200 new macro sites by 2025 & 1950 new passive tenancies by 2024 (FY EBITDA GBP 17.5m by 2026E)
    • Vodafone IE launches sub-brand Clear Mobile: low-cost, SIM-only, online-only; 13 EUR/mo for unlimited voice, text, data (max 5 Mb/s)
  • Bouygues Telecom: Capital Markets Day (Ambition 2026) - Details
  • Elisa: Acquires camLine Group (industrial software) for smart factory applications
  • MasMovil (KKR, Cinven, Providence): Nowo (Portugal, won 1800 spectrum for EUR 54m) to enter PT market with 4G network
  • Gamma: 20Q4 trading statement, expects 2020 EBITDA above forecast; full results 210323
  • Snap: Acquires StreetCred (platform for location data)
  • Poshmark: Prices IPO at $14, raises $277m from 6.6m new shares, valuation $3.5b (fully diluted)
  • Affirm: Prices IPO at $49 (range was 41-44), valuation $11.9b, raises $1.2b by selling 24.6m shares; symbol AFRM - First trade at $90.90, closes at $97.24 (+98%) 
  • Walmart: Plans fintech company, with Ribbit Capital

Networks

General

  • Deutsche Telekom: Launches Access 4.0 platform (A4; software-defined, disaggregated, highly automated, microservice-based), first for FTTH line in Stuttgart, also supports other telco edge (incl Open RAN); BNG (Broadband Network Gateway) functionality developed by RtBrick

Fixed/FTTP

Mobile/5G

  • United Internet: To start mobile network construction summer 2021
  • GSA: 5G ecosystem at 201231: 559 devices (278 smartphones, 108 FWA devices, 26 hotspots, 9 laptops, 8 tablets) announced across 20 form factors from 108 vendors o/w 335 (233 smartphones, 35 FWA devices, 16 hotspots, 1 laptop, 6 tablets) commercially available
  • Vodafone Greece launches as #3 5G network in Athens & Thessaloniki, target 40% pops coverage by 220331
  • NBN demos long-range mmWave FWA over 5G, with Ericsson, Qualcomm, Casa Systems: 1 Gb/s at 7.3 km
  • 3 UK plans Private 5G at Port of Felixstowe, GBP 3.4m, with Cambridge University, Blue Mesh Solutions, Ericsson, Siemens (part of UK gvt 5G Trials & Testbeds Programme); remote-controlled cranes via CCTV, IoT sensors, AI to optimise the predictive maintenance cycle
  • O2 UK plans 5G mobile based platform to broadcast events in stadiums and other venues, with Digital Catapult, Global Wireless Solutions, Rohde & Schwarz, DTG; receive GBP 1.3m from UK gvt (5G Create); total investment GBP 2.3m
  • Nokia partners with GCP (Google) to jointly develop cloud-native 5G core solutions to develop the network edge as a business services platform for enterprises

WiFi

LEO
  • Starlink receives Ofcom (UK) approval for terminals (CPE); plans UK trial: 84 GBP/mo for 100-150 Mb/s, equipment GBP 440
  • Eutelsat raises EUR 200m debt from EIB to roll out Konnect VHTS (Very High Throughput Satellite) programme
  • OneWeb downsizes target LEO constellation to 7k sats (from 48k) - Raises $400m from SoftBank Group (350) & Hughes Network Systems (50); total raised $1.4b fully funds 648 sats by YE 2022

Services

IPTV

  • AT&T closes AT&T TV Now (originally DirecTV Now: OTT-TV) for new subs; adds AT&T TV tiers without contract: Entertainment Plan 70 $/mo (65 channels), Choice Plan 85 $/mo (65 chanels + RSN + HBO Max for 1 yr), Ultimate 95 $/mo (130 channels), Premier 140 $/mo (140 channels); plans contain less storage (20 hr; 500 ht for 10 $/mo), no Android TV STB
  • Community Fibre (London) launches TV service, with Netgem, 10 GBP/mo for BB subs: 135 channels, streaming (VOD (30k hr), catch-up (25 services)), 4K STB`; also fixed telephony service, unlimited nat fixed & mobile calls 10 GBP/mo
  • Swan (MNO Slovakia) plans Anroid TV based IPTV service for STB and smart TV

B2B

Bundling with non-telco service

Broadband-only

  • Jazztel (= Orange ES) launches BB-only 600/600 Mb/s service, 30 EUR/mo (add-on unlimited nat fixed & mobile calls 3 EUR/mo)

Smart city

Video

Gaming

Regulatory

Telecoms

Platforms

  • Google
    • Google Search sued by Rumble over “unfairly rigging its search algorithms” to place YouTube above Rumble in its search results
    • NOS: royalties rev 2012-2019 through NL to Bermuda EUR 128b, avoided EUR 38b in US taxes, paid EUR 25m in tax in NL
  • Amazon: Connecticut starts investigation of e-books market - Sued in CALS for driving up prices 30% in collusion with Big 5 publishers (Hachette, HarperCollins, Macmillan, Penguin Random House, Simon & Schuster)
  • Facebook:
  • Capitol Hill attack 210106:
    • Platforms ban POTUS Trump after assault on Capitol Hill (210106): Reddit, Amazon (AWS), Twitch, Shopify, Twitter, Google (Play Store), YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat, TikTok, Apple (App Store), Discord, Pinterest, Stripe
    • PGA Tour
    • Facebook halts political spending
    • Facebook removes content containing 'stop the steal'
    • Twitter updated coordinated harmful activity policy, deleted 70k Qanon accounts
    • Parler sues Amazon (AWS)
    • List of worries over content moderation
    • Reports: downloads for alternative social networks (MeWe, CloutHub, Signal, Telegram, Rumble) rise
    • YouTube bans Trump for 1 week
    • Amazon removes Qanon merchandise
    • YouTube blocks Trump channel for uploads and live streams
    • Snapchat permanently bans Trump's account from 210120
    • Airbnb cancels bookings in Washington DC week to inauguration day 210120
    • Google suspends political ads in US around inauguration
    • Bumble (social net) (re)instates political filter to block terrorists involved in Capitol Hill attack (also: Tinder, Match)


at 9:51 pm 0 comments
Labels: , , , , , , , ,

Wednesday, December 09, 2020

FTC starts antitrust lawsuit against Facebook over 'illegal monopolisation'

The FTC & 48 AGs (46 states, DC, Guam) start antitrust lawsuit based on Instagram [see 120409] and WhatsApp [see 140219] acquisitions and imposition of anticompetitive conditions on software developers (illegal monopolisation):

  • "... initially tried to compete with Instagram on the merits by improving its own offerings, but Facebook ultimately chose to buy Instagram rather than compete with it. Facebook’s acquisition of Instagram for $1 billion in April 2012 allegedly both neutralizes the direct threat posed by Instagram and makes it more difficult for another personal social networking competitor to gain scale."
  • "Facebook’s leadership understood—and feared—that a successful mobile messaging app could enter the personal social networking market, either by adding new features or by spinning off a standalone personal social networking app. (...) Facebook chose to buy an emerging threat rather than compete."
  • "Allegedly has made key APIs available to third-party applications only on the condition that they refrain from developing competing functionalities, and from connecting with or promoting other social networking services."

Possible remedies: "divestitures of assets, including Instagram and WhatsApp; prohibit Facebook from imposing anticompetitive conditions on software developers; and require Facebook to seek prior notice and approval for future mergers and acquisitions".

Other measures could be contemplated, such as data portability, or an obligation to offer an ad-free Facebook subscription.

Needless to say, Facebook disagrees.

Initial thoughts:

  • Take out a competitor? Sure, but is there any evidence, such as: Zuckerberg acknowledging as much on record?
  • However, Instagram was quite small when taken over: just 30m users. Last funding round took place at a $500m valuation. The question is: did Facebook's investments make it grow, or was it the 'network effect' that had already taken hold of Instagram?
    • Our notes from 120409: Acquires Instagram (photo-sharing app for iOS, Android; raised $57.5m; 30m users, 5m uploads/day; no revenue; 13 FTE), $1bn in cash/shares (raised $50m at $500m valuation from Sequoia, Thrive Capital, Greylock, Benchmark)
  • WhatsApp had 450m MAU and 320m DAU when taken over for an (at the time) ridiculous $19b. The deal was approved by the FTC (!), on some privacy conditions (which appears not to be at stake now). At the time, WhatsApp had already become very large, exploiting the 'network effect'.
    • Our notes from 140219: Acquires WhatsApp (55 employees o/w 32 engineers; Sequoia Capital 40%; >8k cores), $16bn (4 cash, 12 in shares (183,865,778 shares); cash >= 25%) + $3bn restricted stock (45,966,444 restricted stock units) vesting in 4 yr (for founders and employees: earn-out, retention), total shares 7.9%; to remain independent; 450m mo active users o/w 70% active daily (320m); 19bn messages/day sent, 34bn messages/day received, 600m photos/day uploaded, 200m voice messages/day sent, 100m video messages/day sent; break-up fee payable to WhatsApp in case of regulatory issue: $1bn cash + $1bn in shares; termination possible by both if no closing by 140819 (or 190815 if only regulation is open); to close 2014; CEO Jan Koum to be on Facebook board - Rumor: Google offered $10bn, willing to pay more than $19bn - 9.5m users in NL - Electronic Privacy Information Center & Center for Digital Democracy oppose over privacy - WhatsApp denies data sharing with Facebook - FTC approves, condition: both must uphold privacy policies
  • As to the FTC:
    • The wording of the FTC (above) is far from neutral.
    • It states that "... makes it more difficult for another personal social networking competitor to gain scale" but why would that be so?
    • The FTC approved both acquisition.
  • No matter how hard Facebook tries to unite the services, in order to preclude a break up, the three services still appear to be almost completely separate from each other. A break-up or forced sale wouldn't necessarily change anything much from a user perspective. Competitors would still have a very hard time creating a competing service.
  • Will Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp as standalone companie increase competition, in other words: will they enter each other's markets? Quite possibly so, for instance: Facebook has the facebook Messenger and Instagram has DM to compete with WhatsApp.
  • No matter how you look at it: Facebook allowed Instagram and WhatsApp to grow to their enormous sizes today, so from a consumer standpoint they did quite well.
  • Facebook's abusive behaviour relates mainly to privacy and misinformation and has little to do with owning Instagram and WhatsApp (apart from the de facto social media monopoly status giving it confidence that it can get away with this behavior).


at 11:11 pm 0 comments
Labels: , , , ,

Friday, February 21, 2014

Facebook/WhatsApp - what's next?

It's easy to be negative about Facebook buying WhatsApp: it's expensive, there are little if any revenues to show for, and there is a lot of competition. Not to mention that Facebook, without acquisitions, would arguably have no future.

But it's much more challenging to find the benefits.

First of all, Facebook is 'only' paying $4bn cash + a 7.9% stake. In other words, they are trading roughly 10% of the company for a new line of business.
Second, they take out a competitor, or to be more precise: they are merging with a competitor to keep their audience on board.
Third, no matter how competitive the market is (or rather: despite), WhatsApp has amassed 450 monthly active users - and growing. So, it is one of a very few services to actually put the network effect to work.
And fourth, monetisation will follow. A thin line need to be treaded if users are not te be alienated, but there are no doubt a plethora of possibilities - with so many users and user stats.

Finally, what's next? What could still be missing in the Facebook/Instagram/WhatsApp portfolio?
  • Vimeo: video
  • SoundCould: music
  • Evernote: notes
  • Flipboard: news
  • Foursquare: location

at 10:21 am 0 comments
Labels: , , , , , , ,
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)