Showing posts with label Vodafone. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Vodafone. Show all posts

Monday, October 17, 2022

Vodafone selects Altice for open access fiber joint venture

Vodafone selects Altice for open access fiber joint venture (instead of KKR, Brookfield or Deutsche Glasfaser/EQT).

  • Vodafone DE to establish 50/50 JV FibreCo 23H1 with Altice
  • To develop 7m FTTH lines (o/w 80% to housing ass in existing HFC footprint, 20% to neighbouring homes outside current footprint) in 6 yr
  • Total investment EUR 7b o/w 70% debt financed
  • Currently offering 1 Gb/s to >24m homes (incl wholesale on Telekom, ...); to complement node splitiing, Docsis 3.1 (high splitting, max 3 Gb/s), Docsis 4.0
  • Open for wholesale (Vodafone DE anchor tenant without minimum revenue or volume commitment)
  • Construction & maintenance by Geodesia (= Altice)
  • Vodafone DE to receive max EUR 1.2b cash (o/w 120m upfront at closing JV, 487m deferred during roll-out, earn-out max 595m)
Current JV's in Germany:



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Thursday, June 17, 2021

Vodafone Technology - investor briefing

Vodafone Technology Investor Briefing (Vodafone Business was presented March 18, Digital Services & Experiences will follow September 29.)

4 Chapters:

  1. Demand accelerates (cloudification of communications, proliferation in devices & services across IoT, cloud, media streaming, cloud gaming, big data, low latency connectivity)
  2. Roadmap (51m self-built gigabit HP & 60% 5G pops coverage by 230331; HFC, cloud-native digital architecture & advanced analytics to drive efficiency, speed, reliability, network automation 80% of incidents (zero-touch), lead times redux 50%)
  3. Capital allocation (forensic approach, mid-term ambition of RoC > WACC, shared operations model)
  4. Transforming (most efficient & simplified operator, shared platform approach)









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Monday, May 24, 2021

Week 20 in Telecoms, Internet, Media (UPDATED)

CORPORATE

  • KPN: Telegraaf: EQT and Stonepeak still interested in offer
  • Telefonica: Rumor: to sell Zeleris (logistics), wants EUR 100m, HIG Capital interested
  • BT: Fitch: agreement with BT Pension Scheme (to meet part of its pension deficit repair plan through an asset-backed funding (ABF) structure) is broadly neutral to BT's leverage profile and rating
  • CityFibre (West Street Infrastructure Partners = Goldman Sachs 35%, Antin Infrastructure Partners 35%): Rumor: to sell 30% stake for GBP 1b to ~20 pension & investment funds, to expand target from 8m to 10m premises 
  • Vodafone
    • 20/21Q4 prelim
      • guidance 21/22: adj EBITDA AL EUR 15.0-15.4b, capex GBP 8b (raised), adj FCF >EUR 5.2b
      • Strategy Update
        • to apply for EU's Recovery & Resilience facility
        • targets rev growth, adj EBITDA AL growth MSD, adj FCF growth FCF, leverage 2.5-3.0x, dividend minimum 9c
        • focus on 1. Network investment (fixed & 5G), 2. stronger, more comprehensive product offering, 3. accelerate digital capabilities, 4. flexibility to support Vantage Towers
    • Rumor: interested in co-investment with BT to build 5m premises by 2026
  • VodafoneZiggo: Ziggo Sport to lose Formula 1 rights from 2021/22 season to NENT Group, rumored to pay >EUR 30m, to establish Viaplay, with Bundesliga football (currently at RTL NL); reaches 1.5m viewers
  • Liberty Global
    • CMA approves Virgin Media / O2 UK merger without remedies, to close 210601
    • Establishes JV AtlasEdge Data Centres with Digital Colony to develop >100 edge datacenters in Europe, to close & launch 21Q3; for s 5G, gaming, IoT, edge compute applications; e Josh Joshi to be Exec Chair; Virgin Media UK & IE, Sunrise UPC, UPC Poland to be anchor tenants, open for 3rd parties
  • Cegeka: Citymesh plans to expand mobile nationwide and into consumer market under new brand, to invest EUR 100m, to participate in upcoming auction (700, 900, 1400, 1800, 2000 bands)
  • Iliad: 21Q1; delays fixed-line market IT entry to after summer 2021; expects Iliad IT to report positive EBITDA AL over 2021; to sell remaining 30% stake in towerco FR (On Tower France = Cellnex), >EUR 600m; to revise Op CF target for FR (excl B2B, originally EUR 900m) by Sep 2021
  • Altice Europe: SFR acquires 50% stake in RegloMobile (MVNO France, 770k subs; = Afone Participations) from E Leclerc Group (retailer)
  • 1&1 Drillisch: Finalises nat roaming (2G, 3G, 4G plus 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G MVNO; excl 4G in urban areas from 260101: 1&1 Drillisch 5G covered areas) deal with Telefonica DE, 5 yr; 1&1's subs to be migrated to own network after certain period
  • Gamma Communications: AGM & 21Q1 trading update; outlook 2021: rev, adj EBITDA, adj EPS at high-end of range of market forecasts (rv GBP 442-461, adj EBITDA 86-94m, EPS 55-63p)
  • Deutsche Telekom
    • CMD (1)
      • Targets 2021-24: rev CAGR 1-2%, adj EBITDA AL CAGR 3-5%, FCF >EUR 18b by 2024 (2020: 6.3b), EPS >EUR 1.75 by 2024 (2020: 1.20), pay-out ratio 40-60% of EPS (lower limit EUR 0.60); aims for sustainable growth
      • 5 key action areas: 1. Turning customers into fans (leader in terms of customer experience in fixed, mobile, convergence; superior networks and best-in-class service), 2. Lead in B2B in Europe (rev CAGR 2% in DE and Europe; T-Mobile US to double market share), 3. A new level of sustainability (to become climate neutral in terms of its own emissions (Scope 1 and 2) by as early as 2025, from 2040, 10 years earlier than the original target, this will apply to the entire value chain (Scope 1, 2 and 3), management compensation contains components based on these targets), 4. Number one in fiber and 5G (FTTH penetration >60% by 2030, from 5% currently; to add 2.5m HP/yr from 2024; 5G coverage 97% pops coverage by 2024), 5. We continue to drive digitization (continue to digitize its business at all levels, 30 percent of purchases by customers in Germany to go via our electronic channels by 2024) 
      • Strategic review for T-Mobile NL (preparing for sale) & towers
    • CMD (2)
      • Targets tech & inovation
      • Targets T-Systems
      • Group Development (US, BT stake, NL, Towers, DTCP): valuation T-Mobile US $76b, BT stake GBP 1.9b, GD Towers EUR 12.8b, T-Mobile NL EUR 5.7b incl towers 5.0b excl towers (reduced EBITDA AL EUR 30m) (based on broker estimates), own valuation EUR 6b (enterprise value)
      • Targets T-Mobile NL ('Crown Jewel') YE 2024: 900k fixed subs, FMC penetration of branded base >40%, >50% of customer transaction digital
      • GD Towers ('Kingmaker asset') targets 2024: add 6k sites, 15k site extensions, external rev CAGR >3% (3rd party business), lower opex/site; targets GD 2024: rev CAGR >2%, adj EBITDA CAGR >4%, cash contribution AL CAGR >6%
  • AT&T
  • SingTel: Plans impairment charge on Amobee (ad platform), Trustwave (cyber security), Optus (Australia)
  • RTL
  • Vivendi: Reduces ambition for ownership of UMG after IPO 210927 of 60% from 20 to 10% (Tencent to retain 20%), may sell 10% to US-based investor or increase float to 70%; to retain 10% stake for minimum 2 yr; UMG 21Q1: rev EUR 1809m (+9.4%; recorded music +10.8%, music publishing +6.9%, merchandising & other -10.0%), EBIT 322m (+36%)
  • Google: Bloomberg: Waymo plans to raise $4b, considers IPO

VIDEO

  • Amazon
    • The Information: to offer $7-10b for MGM (studio, channel Epix); Variety: to offer $9b (others expect $5b)
    • libary of 4000 films (incl James Bond, Hobbit, Rocky/Creed, RoboCop, Pink Panther franchises) + 17k episodes (incl Stargate, Vikings, Fargo, The Handmaid’s Tale, Get Shorty, Condor, Fame, American Gladiators, Teen Wolf, In the Heat of the Night), unscripted shows (incl The Voice, Survivor, Shark Tank, The Real Housewives of Beverly Hills, The Hills)
    • MGM 21Q1: rev $403m (+27%), net income $29.3m
    • Variety: valuation $5-6b + debt, Eon Productions (= Broccoli family) control James Bond franchise, insist in theatrical release, refuse spin-offs
  • NENT Group: Plans to launch Viaplay in NL 22Q1 as streaming ad-free SVOD service
  • WarnerMedia: HBO Max AVOD tier (HBO Max With Ads)
    • to cost 10 $/mo
    • to launch in US early June 2021
    • to exclude day-and-date Warner Bros movie premieres throughout 2021
    • no ads against HBO originals; minimal ad load
    • to produce equal margin to ad-free tier
    • ad types: Brand Block, Pause Ad, Branded Discovery
    • ad-free tier to expand to Latam/Caribbean end June 2021
    • to upgrade HBO-branded streaming services in Europe to HBO Max 21H2
    • Some HBO Max originals to be aired on TBS & TNT from summer 2021
  • ViacomCBS: CBS plans addressable commercials for broadcast TV from 21H2
  • Netflix
    • Established division (events/spectacle team) focused on obtaining franchise rights; currently 90 shows in development based on already established properties across comics, books, manga, video games
    • Rumor: plans expansion into videogames, ad-free, may be bundled with SVOD - Confirms expansion into interactive entertainment
  • Vimeo: Launches enterprise-grade video hub

MUSIC

  • Spotify
    • Launches virtual concert series May/June 2021 (with The Black Keys, Rag’n’Bone Man, Bleachers’ Jack Antonoff, Leon Bridges, girl in red)
    • Spotify for Artists publishes Fan Study
    • Partners with Storytel (500k audioboks, 1.6m subs) to allow Storytel subs to connect their account through Spotify to access their audiobooks within Spotify’s app (based on Open Access Platform, to add more OAP partners)
  • Amazon: Allows Amazon Music Unlimited subs (10 $/mo for Amazon subs, 8 $/mo for Prime subs, 15 $/mo family plan) free upgrade to Amazon Music HD (originally 15 $/mo); 70m tracks in HD (lossless, 16 bit, 44.1 kHz) o/w 7m in UHD (24 bit, 192 kHz), some upgraded to 3D Audio (Dolby Atmos, Sony 360RA)
  • Apple: To migrate to lossless audio (ALAC; from 16 bit 44.1 kHz to 24 bit 48 kHz and24 bit 192 kHz) & spatial audio (Dolby Atmos) June 2021, price unchanged; total 75m tracks

WEB SERVICES

  • Google I/O 
  • Snap
    • Partner Summit
      • new services
      • Spotlight paid out $130m since launch to creators (5400)
      • reaches 500m MAU
      • demos Spectacles gen 4 for AR creators (currently 200k, supports with $3.5m + $1m with Verizon for 5G-based AR): AR (dual waveguide displays capable of superimposing AR effects made with Snapchat’s software tools), 4 built-in microphones, 2 stereo speakers, built-in touchpad, Connected Lenses (allows multiple people to see and interact with the same scene in AR)
      • launches Ghost (AR innovation lab)
    • Acquires WaveOptics (AR display supplier, powers Spectacles), >$500m
  • Microsoft launches personal (consumer) version of Teams: chat, video calling, share calendars, locations & files (online (teams.live.com) or app for desktop, Android, iOS) 
  • Vodafone UK launches 3 packages for SME around Wix services (website creation tool): Get Selling Online (10.5 GBP/mo excl VAT; create presence, with payments), Peace of Mind Online (13; adds security), Supercharge My Business Online (22.4; adds Microsoft 365)

TELECOM SERVIVES

  • Ziggo launches internet-only tiers: 75/10 Mb/s for 42.50 EUR/mo, 300/30 for 53, 600/40 for 60.50, 1000/50 for 65.50

NETWORKS

  • Ookla Speedtest Global Index (April 21): global average FBB 102/54 Mb/s, MBB 53/13 Mb/s; FBB: Singapore #1 (246), S Korea #2 (242), HK #3 (241), Monaco #4 (220), RO #5 (214), NL #25 (153); MBB: UAE #1 (191), S Korea #2 (186), Qatar #3 (181), China #4 (149), KSA #5 (148), NL #9 (107) 
  • GSMA calls on governments to allocate 6 GHz band (5925-6425 & 6425-7125) to 5G (at least 6425-7125 portion, 5925-6425 license-exempt; currently mostly for WiFi) for mobile, smart city, smart industry, smart transport
  • Melita (first in Malta) launches 5G (in existing spectrum), nationwide, with Ericsson
  • Sunrise UPC proposes 5G for Smart Buildings (using MR, AR) for Building Information Modeling (BIM); demos transparent building app from Builcon (MR glasses see through walls, enabling them to detect where pipes, cable routes and ducts run)

REGULATORY

  • Platforms
    • EU proposes unified corporate tax regime, based on OECD rules (to be agreed June 2021)
    • US House Dems propose Social Media DATA Act: forces platforms to share data (ad libraries) with researchers and FTC (description of the audience that was targeted, information about how many people interacted with the ad, details about whether the ad was optimized for awareness, traffic or some other purpose); working group within FTC to establish best practices around social media research
  • Apple: lawsuit Epic Games (Fortnite) vs. Apple ongoing


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Monday, March 22, 2021

Week 11 in Telecoms, Internet, Media

Corporate

  • KPN
  • VodafoneZiggo
    • 20Q4 final, Annual Report 2020
    • Moody's affirms Ba3 corporate family rating (CFR) & Ba3-PD probability of default rating (PDR)
  • Vodafone: Vodafone Business Investor Briefing ("Connecting people, places & things for a better future")  
  • Telefonica: Considers selling minority stake in submarine cable unit (part of Telxius), to be integrated in Telefonica Infra
  • Iliad: 20Q4; Iliad IT to add fixed-line services summer 2021
  • Elisa: Annual Report 2020
  • Rakuten: Rakuten sells equity (13% stake) for $2.2b to Japan Post (8.32%), Image Frame Investment (= Tencent) 3.65%, Walmart 0.92%, Mikitani
  • Spotify: Launches Loud & Clear website: guide to royalty payment system; >13k artists made >$50k in 2020, 870 made >$1m
  • Google: Cuts Google Play app store fees for developers to 15% from 210731 for first $1m earned per yr (above remains 30%)
  • Amazon: Expands Amazon Care telehealth service nationally for its employees and other companies summer 2021 [see 201216]
  • Snap: Acquires Fit Analytics (fitting tech for fashion e-commerce)
  • Microsoft: Acquires Marsden Group (industrial innovation)

Networks

  • FTTH
  • Nokia
    • Nokia partners with Google for cloud-based 5G radio solutions, combining RAN, Open RAN & Cloud RAN with Google's edge - Also with AWS (Amazon) for cloud-based 5G radio solutions, combined with AWS Outposts - And with Microsoft on cloud solutions for enterprises (Private 4G & 5G), combining Cloud RAN with Azure
    • Nokia to reset cost base by EUR 600m by end 2023 from 5-10k job cuts to 80-85k in 18-24 mo; to be redirected to R&D, innovation (5G, cloud, digital infra), salaries; restructuring costs EUR 600-700m (o/w 50% in 2021, 15% in 2022, 35% in 2023) by 2023; maintains outlook 2021 (incl EUR 500m cash out for previous restructuring); units to streamline portfolios [see 210311] 
    • Nokia to halve 5G base station power consumption by 2023
    • Nokia CMD: target oper margin 7-10% in 2021, 10-13% in 2023 (Mobile Networks 5-8%, Network Infra 9-12%, Cloud & Network 8-11%, Nokia Tech >75%)
    • Nokia launches midrange 5G smartphones A52, A72

Services

Regulatory

  • Spectrum
    • Ofcom (UK) raises GBP 1.36b from multiband auction (700 MHz & 3.6-3.8 GHz) Phase 1 (Phase 2 for assignments to follow); EE 2x10 MHz in 700 MHz band for GBP 280m, 20 MHz of supplementary downlink spectrum in 700 MHz band for GBP 4m, 40 MHz in 3.6-3.8 GHz band for GBP 168m; 3 UK 2x10 MHz in 700 MHz band for GBP 280m, Vodafone 40 MHz in 3.6-3.8 GHz band for GBP 176m; Telefonica O2 UK 2x10 MHz in 700 MHz band for GBP 280m and 40 MHz in 3.6-3.8 GHz band for GBP 168m
    • FCC plans 3.4 GHz band (100 MHz in 10 MHz blocks for Partial Economic Areas, total 4060 licenses) auction (110) Oct 2021, reserve price $14.7b
  • Ofcom (UK) publishes Wholesale Fixed Telecoms Market Review (WFTMR) for 5 yr (April 2021 - March 2026) framework to promote fibre: entry level copper/fiber wholesale prices not reduced, top-end fiber unregulated, regulated fiber prices may be raised, no cost-based fiber regulation for at least 10 yr  - Virgin Media UK positive - BT confirms rol-out plan (20m FTTP premises by 2025-30, GBP 12b), Openreach may not give geographic discounts - TalkTalk negative: price increases on BB, FTTP may become too expensive for many - DCMS launches Project Gigabit, GBP 5b for >1m rural premises: targets 85% FTTP coverage by 2025
  • Platforms: BEREC supports EC's DMA [see 201215], publishes Opinion and Draft Report, adds proposals, consultation until 210504
  • EC adopts first Horizon Europe 2021-24 strategic plan (EUR 95.5b), to launch call for proposals spring 2021


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Thursday, March 18, 2021

Vodafone Business Investor Briefing

Vodafone Business Investor Briefing ("Connecting people, places & things for a better future")
  • Business is 28% of SR (organic growth 20/21Q3 3.2% to GBP 10.3b)
  • Employees
    • 3100 employees in 23 countries in Prod Dev
    • 2500 employees in 22 countries in Commercial & Ops
    • x in Support
  • Serves 6m customers in Europe & Africa (>150m connections)
  • Current revenues
    • EUR 5.9b in mobile (5.6m customers, 34.4m connections)
    • 3.1b in fixed (1.7m customers, 2.8m connections)
    • 0.6b in unified comms (140k customers, 5.7m users)
    • 0.5b in cloud & security
    • 0.8b in IoT
  • Addressable market >EUR 100b, expected growth 8% per annum
    • By segment
      • Enterprise (Corporate >100 employees, MNC >1000 employees, Public sector >100 employees; current market share 6%) 75b, expected growth CAGR 9%
      • SME (10-99 employees, current market share 15%) 18b, expected growth CAGR 8%
      • SOHO (1-9 employees, current market share 20%) 13b, expected growth CAGR 3%
    • By service
      • EUR 16b in mobile (CAGR 1%)
      • 27b in fixed (CAGR legacy -6%, CAGR next-gen 6%)
      • 9b in unified comms (CAGR 12%)
      • 40b in cloud (CAGR 12%)
      • 4b in security (CAGR 12%)
      • 10b in IoT (CAGR 16%)
    • By geography
      • EUR 34b in DE
      • 30b in UK
      • 14b in IT
      • 12b in ES
      • 16b in Other
    • By sub-segment
      • Enterprise
        • EUR 18b in manufacturing, 17b in fin serv, 8b in gvt & edu, 7b in prof serv, 6b in retail & wholesale, 4b in telco, 4b in health, 11b in Other
        • 7b in mobile, 17b in fixed, 4b in unified comms, 36b in cloud, 3b in security, 8b in IoT
      • SME
        • EUR 5b in manufacturing, 3b in prof serv, 3b in retail & wholesale, 2b in fin serv, 1b in health, 4b in Other
        • 5b in mobile, 5b in fixed, 2b in unified comms, 3b in cloud, 1b in security, 2b in IoT
  • 3 Pillar growth plan 2025
    1. Trusted partner for SME
    2. Gigabit provider for LE
    3. Leading e2e IoT solutions provider for all
  • Medium term targets
    1. Above-market revenue growth in fixed & mobile
    2. Double digit revenue growth in cloud, security, IoT, unified comms
    3. Optimise EBITDA growth & EBITDA margin
    4. Invest in high-margin ROCE opportunities for consistent ROCE growth

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Monday, March 15, 2021

Week 10 in Telecoms, Internet, Media

Corporate

  • Updates
    • Elisa: Capital markets day: targets 2020-23 rev growth CAGR >2%, EBITDA growth CAGR >3%, capex/sales max 12%, net debt/EBITDA 1.5-2.0x, equity ratio >35%, profit distribution (dividend, capital repaymnet, purchase of treasury shares) 80-100% of previous year's net profit; To grow in global telco software business (customers include DT) and industrial software for manufacturing [Consumer NPS 31.8]
    • Deutsche Telekom: T-Mobile US Analyst Day    
    • AT&T: Analyst Day Strategy Update & 5G Strategy    
    • Verizon: Investor Day    
    • US Cellular (TDS): Acquired 254 C-band licenses covering 94% of subs in FCC auction 107, $1.46b
  • Towers
    • Monaco Telecom (Xavier Niel): Sells towers Malta, Cyprus to Phoenix Tower (815 towers + build-to-suit sites), to close end 2021
    • Vodafone: Vantage Towers Sets IPO price range EUR 22.50-29.00, market cap EUR 11.4-14.7b; to sell stakes in IPO to investors Digital Colony (EUR 500m) and RRJ (EUR 450m); tosell 88.9m shares to raise EUR 2.0-2.8b (incl 25% upsize & 15% greenshoe), 19.1-24.6% to be listed; subscription period until 210317, first trade Frankfurt 210318
  • Other
    • Dropbox: Acquires DocSend, $165m: document sharing via secure link
    • PayPal: Acquires Curv (crypto security, Israel), rumored price <$200m
    • Stripe: Raises $600m at $95b valuation from Ireland’s National Treasury Management Agency, Allianz, Fidelity, Baillie Gifford, AXA, Sequoia Capital
    • Airspan Networks plans IPO via SPAC merger on NYSE, symbol MIMO
    • RTL: 20Q4

Networks

  • FTTH
    • UK: CityFibre (Antin, Goldman Sachs) plans Phase 2: adds 216 towns (3m homes, GBP 1.5b) to cover <33% by 2025 (England, Scotland; 8m homes, 800k businesses, 400k publi sector sites, 250k 5G sites); currently 650k homes, 14 ISPs
    • DE: TNG (= Intermediate Capital Group) raises EUR 73m debt for rural FTTH (200k premises) from UBS, others
    • DE: Telekom DE plans 600k FTTH lines in Berlin by 2025, 1m by 2027
    • DE: Deutsche Glasfaser plans 300k FTTH lines in Saarland, EUR 500m
  • LEO

Services

  • Deutsche Telekom
    • T-Mobile US plans opt-out advertising program from 210426 (excl business accounts & children): targeted ads based on anonimised online activity
    • Telekom DE partners with Envision Digital (Charging by EnOSTM) for home EV charging solution, with SIM and IP-VPN, from 37 EUR/mo (incl 100 kWh)
  • Video

Regulatory

  • Spectrum auctions
  • ACCC publishes Issues Paper on the impact of default settings for search engines & browsers on mobile devices, consultation until 210415 - Plans report on app marketplaces 210331
  • EC publishes Digital Decade plan, proposes Digital Compass: 1. Digitally skilled citizens and highly skilled digital professionals (incl 20m ICT specialists), 2. Secure, performant and sustainable digital infrastructures (gigabit connectivity, 5G, quantum computer, 10k climate-neutral secure edge nodes), 3. Digital transformation of businesses (cloud, Big Data, AI; double the number of unicorns), 4. Digitalisation of public services (incl e-medical records) - BEREC supports


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Sunday, February 28, 2021

Week 8 in Telecoms, Internet, Media

Corporate

  • TIM: 20Q4 & 2021-23 Plan Update Beyond Connectivity: 1. Unique commercial proposition, 2. Best technological infrastructure, 3. Further improve operational excellence, 4. Leaner organizational model; works with 5 factories: Noovle (cloud), Telsy (cyber security), Olivetti (integrated IoT), Sparkle (int wholesale), TIM Vision (content)
  • Proximus: 20Q4; guidance 2021: additional expenses (opex EUR 50m) for fiber migrations, IT transformation, cloudification, Mwingz (shared mobile network with Orange BE) roll-out (reducing capex), targets EBITDA EUR 1.750-1.775m, capex close to EUR 1.2b, to double fiber roll-out from 2020, net debt/EBITDA <1.6x, domestic rev close to 2020 level (EUR 4.285m), div 2021 and 2022 EUR 1.20 (floor); confirms #inspire2022 ambitions; opex redux CAGR 2020-22 1-2%, expands cost savings to EUR 400m over 2020-2025 (o/w half in 2020-22), targets domestic EBITDA to grow from 2022
  • Vodafone
    • Vodafone CZ plans strategic coop wit utility CEZ (70% state-owned)
    • Vantage Towers Intention to Float (ITF) in Frankfurt March 2021 of meaningful minority stake; rumored valuation: EUR 15b, to raise EUR 4b
  • Virgin Media UK (Liberty Global): CMA publishes responses from Sky & Vodafone regarding O2 merger; concerns on wholesale market for MVNOs and backhaul - O2 UK claims concerns addressed
  • Akamai: Investor Summit
    • 3-5 year Security targets: Application Security CAGR 20-25%, Network Security CAGR 20-25%, Security Services CAGR 10-15%, overall CAGR goal >20% (rev to more than double in 5 yr to $2.5b, addressable market $29b)
    • 3-5 year CDN targets: Edge Delivery CAGR 0-3%, Edge Applications >30%, Services CAGR 1-3%, overall CAGR goal 2-5% (addressable market $18b)
    • Financial targets Security: cash gross margin high 80s (2021: 86-87%), EBITDA margin high 40s (2021: 45-46%), oper margin mid 30s (2021: 34-35%), network capex low single digit (2021: 1-3%), R&D capex high single digit (2021: 8-10%)
    • Financial targets CDN: gross margin high 60s (2021: 68-69%), EBITDA margin mid 40s (2021: 42-43%), oper margin high 20s (2021: 26-27%), network capex low double digit (2021: 11-13%), R&D capex mid single digit (2021: 4-5%)
    • Total targets 3-5 yr: rev CAGR 6-10%, gross margin high 70s (2021: 76-77%), EBITDA margin mid 40s (2021: 44%), oper margin 30-32% (2021: 30%), capex mid teens of rev (2021: 16%)
  • Roblox: Plans IPO via direct listing 210310
  • Thomson Reuters: To invest $500-600m in AI, ML in 2 yr; to cut opex by $600m from eliminating duplicate functions, modernizing & consolidating technology, attrition, shrinking real estate footprint
  • Twitter: Analyst Day: Goals:
    • 1. Double development velocity by end 2023 (ie doubling the number of features shipped per employee)
    • 2. 315m mDAU (monetisable DAU; currently 85% from brand ads, 15% from performance ads; global digital brand + performance ads market $150b, Twitter market share 3%) 23Q4 (20Q4: 192m, implies CAGR 20%)
    • 3. more than double annual rev to $7.5b (2020: $3.7b) 
  • Snap: Investor Day: guidance: revenue CAGR 50%; Usage stats: 5b Snaps/day, Snap Map 250m MAU, advertising 90% self-serve, digital ad market US share 2% (reach <50% of smartphone uesrs), reach 13-24 year olds >90% (US, UK, Australia, FR, NL), reach 13-34 year olds >75% (US, UK, Australia, FR, NL)

Networks

  • Broadband Choices: report Internet Accessibility Index 2021 (based on speed & cost), ranking 169 countries: Denmark #1, Liechtenstein #2, US #3, NL #15
  • FTTH
    • Telefonica
      • Telefonica Chile sells 60% stake in fiber network to KKR (Global Infrastructure Investors III Fund), $1b, to close 21Q2; to establish OA wholesale company; to expand pops coverage from 2m to 3.5m by 2023 (FTTH, 40k FTTO lines, FTTS); reduces debt by EUR 400m
      • Telefonica Brazil plans fiber network spin-off to establish OA wholesale company FiBrasil, with investor (TBA 21Q1); Bloomberg: talks with Caisse de Depot et Placement du Quebec (CDPQ)
    • T-Mobile NL to add 1m HP by 2025 with #2 investment partner (not Primevest), TBA 21H1, to start in 10-15 areas
  • Mobile, 5G
    • Ericsson Mobility Report 20Q4 update: global mobile subscriptions (8b, penetration 102%, unique active subs 6b; net adds 19m), mobile BB subs 6.5b (net adds 100m), 5G subs 220m at 130 providers (net adds 70m), 4G subs 4.5b (net adds 90m); total global mobile data traffic 60 EB/mo (+51% yoy, +9% qoq)
    • EIB report Accelerating the 5G transition in Europe
    • Umlaut: T-Mobile NL best network worldwide (962 points), KPN (954) and VodafoneZiggo (945) also in Top 10    
    • Polsat Group sells 99.99% stake (2,069,656 shares) in Polkomtel Infrastruktura to Cellnex
    • Malaysia plans government-owned wholesale 5G network via special purpose vehicle ($4b in 10 yr; also: FTTH), to adminster spectrum for all MNOs (part of digital  transformation by 2030); Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Telekom Malaysia to build & manage hyper-scale data centres & cloud services
    • Google partners with Intel on cloud-native 5G; 3 main areas: 1. accelerating the ability of CSPs to deploy vRAN & ORAN solutions by providing next-gen infrastructure & hardware, 2. launching new lab environments to help CSPs innovate on cloud-native 5G, 3. making it easier for them to deliver business applications to the network edge; to develop reference architectures & integrated solutions for CSPs' for core network functions & edge network solutions
  • 6G
  • LEO

Services

  • Video
    • ViacomCBS: Streaming Event: Paramount+ to launch 210304
    • Walt Disney
      • Launches Star tab (75 series, 280 movies at launch) in Disney+ in Europe, ANZ, Canada, Singapore; content from content from ABC, Hulu, FX, Freeform, Disney Television Studios, FX, 20th Century Studios, 20th Television, more
      • Disney+ price increases from 7 to 9 EUR/mo, 6 to 8 GBP/mo
      • Release dates
      • Rumor: Disney+ subs 40% in N America (40m), 30% in India, 30% in Europe & Latam
    • Netflix: 10 Golden Globes (on 42 nominations)
  • Music
  • Smart city
    • Las Vegas ordered smart city solutions from Siemens Advanta & Bluetech Park Properties, $7.5b in 6 yr (net-zero carbon footprint buildings within its own insular mini-city, automated multi-functional designs, renewable energy sources, photovoltaic super trees, various other interconnected innovations)
    • Egypt (Administrative Capital for Urban Development) orders smart city ICT (datacenter, cloud services, to be operated by Orange Egypt) from Orange Business Services for new administrative capital (45km east of Cairo on a greenfield site, 700 km^2); 5 pillars: safety, connectivity, integration, digitalisation, replicability; to launch 21Q2
    • Toyota starts smart city Woven City construction near Mount Fuji, 175 hectares, hydrogen-based, solar, robotics, AI, smart homes; appointed Bjarke Ingels Group as architects
    • Stockholm ordered Univrses app to scan & map city streets from any car, transmitting & processing data in real-time to help create a more detailed picture of the state of the city’s streets, measuring everything from road damage to congestion, the location of streetlights to the state of road signage


at 11:41 pm 0 comments
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Monday, February 22, 2021

Week 7 in Telecoms, Internet, Media

Corporate

  • Orange
    • 20Q4; outlook 2021: EBITDA AL stable, capex EUR 7.6-7.7b, organic telecoms CF EUR 2.2b (3.5-4.0b in 2023), lverage (net debt/EBITDA AL) 2x medium term
    • Establishes Totem: towerco for FR, ES (25500 sites o/w 17000 in FR o/w 55% towers & 45% rooftops; 8000 in ES divided 50/50 over macro sites & rooftops), to raise colocation rate from 1.3 to 1.5 in 8 yr, plans 3000 build-to-suit sites; pro forma rev EUR 500m, EBITDA AL 300m, margin 57% [see 191204] - Considers partnerships with Vodafone (Vantage Towers), DT (Deutsche Funkturm), to keep control
  • Vantage Towers (Vodafone)
  • Liberty Global: 20Q4; merger Virgin Media UK with O2 UK to close mid 2021
  • VodafoneZiggo (Vodafone, Liberty Global): 20Q4 prelim; guidance exceeded (adj EBITDA growth 6%, PPE 20% of rev, TSR EUR 501m, synergies EUR 214m one yr early); Guidance 2021: adj EBITDA growth 1-2%, PPE 19-21% of rev, TSR EUR 550-650m; 1 Gb/s over Docsis 3.1 coverage 3m HP (o/w >1m subs), target 80% penetration YE 2021 (with >2m subs), nationwide early 2022; to upgrade Mediabox XL (1m subs) to Mediabox Next UI; plans IT systems integration; to migrate to fully digital operating model; Bonds: issued $91m Sr Secured Notes Nov 2020 (4.875%) at 104% to redeem 10% of SSN due 2027 (4.25%); Issued $200m SSR due 2030 (4.875%) to redeem $200m of SSR due 2027 (5.5%); Leverage incl vendor & handset financing 5.49x; IPO optional
  • Sunrise UPC (Liberty Gloabl): 20Q4
  • Tele Columbus: Mgt submits change-of-control confirmation; successful offer requires 50% + 1 share by 210315; plans rights offering 21Q2, EUR 475m
  • Bouygues Telecom (Bouygues): 20Q4; new governance: to separate Chair (Martin Bouygues) and CEO (Olivier Roussat); Bouygues Telecom appoints Richard Viel Chair & CEO
  • CETIN (PPF): Bloomberg: plans IPO, valuation EUR 4b

Networks

Services

  • Telecoms
    • Telenet bundles Tadaam (FWA-over-4G + OTT-TV) with Base (mobile), 5 EUR/mo discount
    • MasMovil (KKR, Cinven, Providence): Launches MoneyGO for Yoigo subs: banking services (device financing, cc, loans up to EUR 60k)
  • Video
    • Walt Disney: Plans 10 original series for Disney+ in Europe (4 from FR, 3 from IT, 2 from DE, 1 from NL), target 50 by 2024
    • NBCU (Comcast): Hayu (reality) expands to 11 new countries: ES, PT, FR, IT, CH, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, PL, HU, CZ (earlier to DE, AT), 5 EUR/mo
    • YouTube (Google/Alphabet): To expand Shorts (short vertical videos) [a la TikTok] to US March 2021; to add 4K, downloads for offline viewing & DVR to YouTube TV; to launch in-video shopping
  • Web services
    • Google: Updates Google Meet, Classroom, Google Workspace for Education for e-learning with >50 new features
    • Facebook: To restrict users from sharing news in Australia in response to Media Bargaining Code
    • WhatsApp (Facebook): WhatsApp ToS to change (share payment & transaction data with Facebook in order to help better target ads), new conditions to be accepted by 210515, then few weeks for asking users to comply, then users to be blocked from reading & sending messages, then to delete inactive accounts after 120 days
    • IBM: WSJ: IBM puts Watson Health business (annual sales $1b) up for sale; brands: Merge Healthcare (analyzes mammograms & MRIs), Phytel (assists with patient comms); Truven Health Analytics (analyzes complex healthcare data)

Regulation

France wants changes to DSA: each member state to have the right to fine tech platforms & force them to remove illegal content; proposes illegal content to also contain harmful content & disinformation


at 12:14 am 0 comments
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Sunday, February 14, 2021

Week 6 in Telecoms, Internet, Media

Corporate

  • BT:  Hatch report (The Economic Impact of BT Group in the UK): gross value added (GVA) 2019/20 GBP 24b, supports 300k FTE, spent GBP 10.1 on UK suppliers, maintains 35k vehicles; spending by people on BT pension contributed GBP 2b, supports 26600 jobs
  • Proximus: Buys out Swisscom (22.4% for EUR 110m) and MTN (20.0% for EUR 107m = ZAR 1.8b, to record ZAR 1.2b book profit) from BICS for full ownership and strategic flexibility; EV EUR 569m = 4.4x EBITDA
  • Vodafone: Vantage Towers Moodys: Baa3, outlook stable
    • 45,500 fully controlled macro sites + 14,200 and 22,100 co-controlled macro sites in Cornerstone (50%) and INWIT (33.2%) JVs, 20/21 Adj EBITDA EUR 814m; debt EUR 2.3b, leverage 4.0 (Moodys: gross debt/EBITDA excl Cornerstone, INWIT 5.0x)
    • Positives: strong market positions, geographically well-diversified, high barriers to entry for competitors, high barriers to exit for customers, good earnings & cash flow predictability (supported by anchor long-term service contracts with Vodafone), expectation of medium-term EBITDA growth (driven by site additions, improving tenancies ratios, operational efficiencies)
    • Negatives: high customer concentration with Vodafone, short history of operating as a separate entity, expectation of negative free cash flow over the next 2 years (as a result of Vantage Towers' capital intensive model (7,100 contractual built-to-suit commitments that it is targeting over FY2022-FY2026) and planned dividend payments of EUR 280m to be paid in FY2022), starting net leverage of around 4.0x EBITDAaL with willingness to increase up to 5.5x
  • Telenet: 20Q4
    • Outlook 2021: rev (+1%) & Adj EBITDA (up 1-2%) to return to growth, Op FCF -1%, FCF 420-440m
    • Outlook 2018-2021: Op FCF CAGR lower end of current range 6.5-8.0%
    • Focus on 5 pillars: 1. Expand customer relations, 2. grow in B2B, 3. Customer approach simplified, digital-first, 4. Perfect networks, 5. Empower employees, agile structure
    • Eltrona deconsolidation [see 200225] reduces operationals from 21Q2: HP -47700, customers -9500, RGUs -18500, TV -9200, BB -5500, FT -3800
    • Other: expects to win VOO auction (21Q2), Wallonia may hold on to stake; talks with Fluvius on FTTH ongoing (currently full fiber for FTTO and greenfields); considers towers (>3000) monetisation in case of funding need or transformational transaction
  • MasMovil: Acquires controlling stake in Lucera: energy reseller
  • Vivendi: To spin off 60% of Universal Music Group (Tencent holds 20%, Vivendi to hold 20%) in IPO as special dividend end 2021 in Amsterdam 'to reduce Vivendi’s conglomerate discount'; EV EUR 30b; EGM 210329; Vivendi shareholders to receive 44%, Bollore Groupe (holds 27% of Vivendi) 16%; proposes ordinary div EUR 0.60 over 2020, AGM 210622
  • Twitter: 20Q4
    • outlook 21Q1: rev $940-1040m, oper income loss $0-50m
    • outlook 2021: headcount +20%, costs + expenses +25% (incl new datacenter), rev to grow faster than expenses, SBC expense $525-575m, capex $900-950m
    • CEO Jack Dorsey considers decentralised social network to be built by Bluesky team [see 191211]; plans to give people more choice over what they see through marketplace of algorithms
  • Match Group acquires Hyperconnect, $1.73b: social network S Korea, operates Azar (live video & audio chat platform) & Hakuna Live (live-streaming app for video & audio broadcasts)
  • Bumble: Sets IPO price at $43, to sell 50m shares - First trade $76.00, closes at $70.31

Networks

  • 5G
    • GSA report on 5G devices: total 558 announced (o/w 365 = 62% commercially available) in 20 form factors from 113 vendors, 294 smartphones & 113 FWA devices announced (o/w 251 resp 42 commercially available)
    • GSA report on 4G & 5G networks, technologies & spectrum: 806 commercial 4G networks (incl 421 FWA, 743 mobile); 156 invest in NB-IoT o/w 111 launched, 51 deply LTE-M; 413 operators in 131 countries invest in 5G (o/w 65 operators in SA 5G) o/w 144 in 61 countries commercially launched 5G
    • Qualcomm launches Snapdragon X65 5G Modem-RF System (gen 4 5G modem-to-antenna solution; Release 16, 10 Gb/s, sub-6 GHz & mmWave, AI antenna tuning tech, upgradeable architecture) & X62 (for mainstream adoption of mobile broadband)
    • Personal (= Telecom Argentina) launches 5G in Buenos Aires, Rosario using DSS
    • Omantel launches 5G, no extra charge
    • Asia Pacific Telecom develops 5G-supported smart robots, with Foxconn Global Network (FHnet), to operate over SA Private 5G
    • Verizon opens 5G for sub-brand Visible (supports e-SIM)
  • 6G
    • Fraunhofer (5 institutes: IIS, HHI, FOKUS, IAF, IZM) launches 6G Sentinel research; focus on THz (100-300 GHz; very small cells, beamforming (Massive MIMO) integrated), flexible networks
    • CEA-Leti launches 6G research project RISE-6G, with 13 partners (Orange, TIM, NEC; Chalmeers University, Aalborg University, National & Kapodistrian University of Athens, University of Notthingam; Consorzion Nazionale Interuniversitario Italiano, Centre National de la Recherche Sceintifique; SNCF, Fiat); plans 'smart & energy-sustainable technology advances, on reconfigurable intelligent surfaces that will enable programmable control'
  • LEO
    • Starlink requests FCC designation as Eligible Telecommunications Carrier (ETC) to comply for funding [see 201207] - Competitors (FBA, NTCA) oppose funding as Starlink to hit capacity ceiling (congestion) by 2028 (Starlink plans 12k sats, throughput per sat 20 Gb/s, peak bandwidth per user 1.7-2.7 Mb/s); Starlink current permission max 1m users, to raise to 5m
    • Telesat orders LEO fleet Lightspeed (at 1015 and 1325 km; Ka-band, first launch in 2 yr, commercial servivces 23H2) from Thales Alenia Space; total capacity with 298 sats 15 Tb/s, max data rates 7.5 Gb/s (20 Gb/s for hotspot)
    • Starlink beta to expand to ZA in 2022 (already in US, Canada, UK); opens for deposites, fulfilled on a first-come, first-served basis - And to Spain - And global, where legal
    • Starlink (SpaceX) considers IPO
  • FTTH
    • Fern Trading
      • Jurassic Fibre (= Fern Trading) launches service in Barnstaple, max 950 Mb/s; to cover 10k premises by summer 2021
      • Swhish Fibre (= Fern Trading; plans 250k HP in 33 towns, 10 Gb/s) plans expansion in South Buckinghamshire
      • Vorboss (plans 250k FTTP lines by 2022) 75% stake acquired by Fern Trading

Services

  • B2B
    • Deutsche Telekom: T-Systems adopts Cloud-First strategy, expands partnerships with AWS, Azure; to launch new cloud offering 210216
    • Swisscom: Acquires Webtiser (expertise in SAP Customer Experience, 40 omployees), expands SAP-unit to 440 employees
    • Multiscope Thuiswerk Monitor survey report NL: 44% of WFH staff (due to corona virus) bought office products, spending average EUR 359 = total EUR 400m; 48% received financial support from employer
    • Microsoft adds Bulletins (news, info) and Milestones (track progress of work items) apps for Teams
    • Metrigy report (survey of 476 firms): 47% of businesses globally use UCaaS

  • Wholesale
  • Mobile
  • Smart city
    • Plasencia (Spain) orders smart city solution for tourism from Red.es and Vodafone ES, EUR 374k
    • Sharing Cities program (London, Lisbon, Milan, Bordeaux, Burgas, Warsaw) reaches EUR 250m investments in retrofitting buildings with energy-saving measures, developing sustainable energy management systems for new & existing developments, shared electric mobility, smart street infrastructure
  • Video
  • Web services
  • Hardware
    • Amazon: Rumor: plans wall-mounted Echo device as smart home control by end 2021/early 2022; 10-13 inch, $200-250
    • Facebook: Rumor: plans Android-based smartwatch, with  health and fitness features

Regulation

  • Spectrum
    • Nkom (NO) plans 5G auction Sep 2021: 2.6 GHz band (2x70 MHz in 14 blocks of 2x5 (minimum price NOK 25m) + 1x50; cap 80 MHz), 3.6 GHz band (3400-3800; 4 blocks of 40 (minimum price NOK 100m), 24 blocks of 10; cap 120 MHz), consultation until 210409
    • Ancom (RO) plans 5G auction 21Q3 (700, 800, 1500, 2600, 3400-3800; procedures by 21Q2; plans consultation on 24 GHz band
  • FT: EC considers forced payments by platforms to publishers for using snippets in search results, news
  • EU decides on e-privacy guidelines


at 2:26 pm 0 comments
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