TD-LTE: an introduction

TD-LTE is an interesting area. Spectrum is cheap and lends itself very well to data traffic. TD-LTE may also present an upgrade path for WiMax, possibly leading to a merger of LTE and WiMax. Touseef Ahmed of Mobile Broadband has been friendly enough to make an intro into the topic, that is presented here as a guest post.

Defining TD-LTE:

LTE (Long Term Evolution) is the fundamental and primary technology for the development of 4G technology, which is an evolution of 3G networks. TDD (Time Division Duplex) version of LTE is called TD-LTE. It was developed by China Mobile in the recent years.

TD-LTE explained:

TD-LTE allows carriers to make use of unpaired spectrum that many of them already own. Compared to the previous standards GSM, EDGE, etc., TD-LTE's commercial release time period is very short, due to its later addition into the standards.

There are some essential similarities and differences between TD-LTE and classic LTE. Basically LTE has the following characteristics:

• Much faster upload and download speeds than the 3G.
• It can reach download speeds of over 150 Mbit/s and upload speeds of over 80 Mbits/s.
• It has a larger cell size where a single LTE cell tower can cover upto 100km. Although its size will be greatly diminished in urban areas, it is still a lot better than 3G.
• It can easily be upgraded as it was developed with the intention of making the implementation of upgrades easier down the line.
• It has a great advantage of being compatible with existing standards.

Differences and similarities between LTE and TD-LTE:

• They run on different bands of wireless spectrum. But the part of spectrum that carries the TD-LTE signal is a lot cheaper and has much less traffic.
• LTE and TD-LTE are so similar that both the networks can be accessed by the same chip, which is easier for handset manufacturers.
• 4G, WiMAX standards are not compatible with LTE, but compatible with TD-LTE.

TD-LTE technical specifications:

• TD-LTE is specified to operate in the frequency range of 1850 to 2620 MHz.
• It uses the same MIMO (Multiple Input, Multiple Output) scenarios.
• There are two frame configurations, each with an overall length of 10 milliseconds and divided into 10 subframes as shown in the figure above.
• That is, the transmitted signal is organized into subframes of 1 millisecond.
• There is only one single carrier frequency and the transmissions (uplink and downlink) in the cell are always separated in time.

TD-LTE frame structures (see figure above):

• The 5ms version has two special subframes when compared to one in the 10ms version which provides greater chances of uplink/downlink flexibility.
• The frame can be dynamically configured to any one of the above depending upon the transmission requirement.
• Each one millisecond downlink subframe contains blocks of data called “Resource Blocks” meant for a number of different users.
• Uplink subframe contains blocks of data from the users to the Base Station.
• The specified latency time is 5 ms or only half a frame for small data packets.
• The current system is made such that the stationary or pedestrian users or the low speed users experience operations done at the highest speed.

Advantages of TD-LTE:

• There is no need to develop new devices for using TD-LTE. It's enough to add TD-LTE support to the existing devices.
• There is a lot of TDD spectrum available and it is cheap in cost.
• The increasing availability allows transition of WiMAX (Worldwide interoperability for Microwave Access) operators to TD-LTE using the same allocated spectrum.
• Industry commitment is great without any limitations.

Future of TD-LTE:

TD-LTE will bring in new challenges to developers and vendors of design. New schemes, new configurations, higher system bandwidths, higher system capacity, lower latency are some of the expected challenges. There is a prediction that there will be 30 to 80 million subscribers and over £70 billion in operator revenues within 5 years.

FTTH and LTE help increase focus on wholesale

Three weeks of holidays create a truck load of catching up to do. Results, LTE, MVNO, FTTH, VoIP, WiMAX - every possible new item crossed our mail boxes. They can best be categorised at the next higher level: Corporate, NGN, Wholesale and OTT.

Corporate:

• Results: incumbents (KPN, DT, BT, Telefonica, Belgacom, FT, Bell Aliant), mobile (Sprint), cablecos (Liberty Global, Telenet, Ziggo, Virgin Media, ONO, Comcast).
• Financing: Reggefiber got its desired EUR 130m loan from the EIB.
• IPO: Skype's $100m plan.
• M&A: possible buyers (Telefonica, PT, Vodafone, FT, TI) and sellers (PT, TI, Vodafone).

NGN:

• FTTH: lots of deployments announced (inclusing China and India).
• NBNs and NBPs: Australia expands coverage plans to 93%, New Zealand receives 15 bids, the US awards another round of funds.
• LTE: several deployments announced.
• 4G: Clearwire moving closer to switching from WiMAX to LTE and the WiMAX2 standard gets ready for a 2012 launch.
• 1 Gbps: several MSO and telcos are now going beyond 100 Mbps, while ever more are eying 1 Gbps as the new frontier for bandwidth.

Wholesale:

• Structural separation: proposal from Telecom NZ in order to be able to bid for the Crown Fibre plan.
• MVNO: KPN reports success with foreign MVNO operations (2G, 3G); Econet plans launch on the Everything Everywhere network (3G); Best Buy will do the same on the Clearwire network (WiMAX); Airspan is LightSquared's first wholesale customer (LTE); Tele2 NL started offering CATV on the networks of Ziggo and UPC (analogue TV); Chile considers a wholesale-only network (mobile and digital TV).
• BT was not allowed to raise wholesale prices to help stem the pension fund deficit.

OTT:

• Apps: Google ended the development of Google Wave and acquired Slide; Samsung announced a developer contest.
• Net neutrality: Google and Verizon struck an agreement.
• Hybrid TV: Apple was rumoured to rework Apple TV into iTV, Cox partnered with TiVo and the Virgin UK/TiVo partnership added Cisco.

Conclusions:

• The focus in the sector is shifting to Wholesale and OTT; FTTH and LTE are ongoing; wholesale is established as an important new business.
• M&A is focused on emerging markets, esp. Latam.
• Many incumbent telcos are still assembling global empires in order to be able to show growth. KPN is continuing on the wholesale path for growth.
• A telecoms network can be looked at as a vital piece of national infrastructure. If structurally separated, its cash flows can be seen as a vital element of the governments budget (incl. retirement funding).
• Cablecos are outperforming telcos. If you split the business three ways, it becomes clear why. 1. Connectivity (access): Docsis 3 outperforms xDSL and provides cable with a growth engine. Utility rates are close to 80% in the Netherlands, still much higher than FTTH's. 2. Communication: a nice add-on for growth and loyalty, hitting incumbent telcos in their hearts. 3. VAS (incl. content): here cable is the incumbent and benefits from a considerable head-start on multiple fronts (network, digital services, content deals). The foremost risks include FTTH and non-linear TV/hybrid TV/OTT.
• NGNs (FTTH, LTE) are exploring their advantages: 1. Maximum symmetrical bandwidth. 2. Lowest opex, highest score on the green scale. 3. Options for open access and wholesale.
• OTT is a complex and uncertain field, but hybrid TV seems to be a promising direction.

Final conclusion: while areas such as Latam may provide telcos with some more growth, wholesaling (open access) appears to be the way to maximise the value of a network. FTTH and LTE carry the lowest possible technology risk. OTT is a promising but complex development.

Mobile Broadband

There is a lot going on in mobile broadband. I plan to cover that over the next few weeks. But first, off on hoilday for a week.

Some issues:

• Enablers: IP (i.e. 4G), VAS (such as LBS and payments for consumers, full access through laptop cards for workers), data tariffs coming down. Is the data over service revenues fianally taking off (settling above 20% at AT&T, Verizon and KPN)?
• Per IP: the Broadband Incentive Problem.
• MTA: comparing minutes of use in Europe and the US reveals that there is a lot of price elasticity.
• Fixed line replacement? (think 16d)
• Outsourcing, network sharing and separation to further lower costs.
• New entrants: Nokia, Apple, Google, Yahoo!
• Offloading (that's whta it is, no more!): mobile TV, femtocells.
• 4G Standards war: LTE, WiMAX (and Gaiacomm?).

Sprint Nextel: no inflection point nor WiMAX success just yet

Sprint Nextel is a tricky investment case. On the one hand, there is a meltdown of sorts. On the other hand, WiMAX holds a promise as a 4G solution. For those wanting to catch up, read these two articles: Light Reading summarizes all the big disasters (management, churn & customer service, joint ventures & technology choices), while IEEE focuses on the biggest issue going forward: WiMAX.

All will depend on the company reaching an inflection point and the take-up of the Xohm WiMAX-service. Success is inevitable, but timing is everything.

I believe it is still to early to jump in.

As to the former, it is very hard to make a trustworthy valuation in a case like this one. Market target prices range from $12 to $28, but personally I believe the share is still overvalued (based on takeover speculation, I suppose, related to Comcast which may find it harder to grow its basic subscriber base when capped at a 30% penetration rate).

As to the latter, I am a big believer in mobile broadband, but one has to be realistic. Mobile data so far is a big disappointment.
WiMAX may have a headstart over LTE, but there are several challenges: (1) LTE is the technology of choice for most entrenched players (all GSM and possibly some or most CDMA operators, including Verizon Wireless), (2) how does it scale?, (3) will there be enough of a choice of handsets and devices?, (4) will Xohm be open enough, and last but not least (5) demand as related to pricing.
What Sprint needs to do most, I believe, is to make Xohm really open to all internet-based services and it should come at a reasonable price.
Look out for usage numbers at Vodafone, which may have finally understood that currently data tariffs border on the insane. Vodafone NL is reducing data tariffs by up to 85%.

Behind the end of OEN and Sprint/Clearwire

Here is an interesting story on why OEN (Optical Entertainment Network, a FTTH company in Houston) folded. Apparently there were management issues, but it seems to have boiled down to a tech matter: PON (gear from Alloptic) v. active ethernet (gear from PacketFront). The company couldn't decide. "It was a group of engineers getting together and having a serious case of vendor love."

(PON is cheaper to deploy and has a shorter reach. Active ethernet requires more active electronics, a fatter backbone and therefore looks more future-proof, but it comes at a 15-20% premium.)

By the way, look out for France where FT is a supporter of PON, v. Iliad and Neuf favoring active ethernet.

Which brings me to another (so-called) demise: the end of the intended Sprint/Clearwire partnership in rolling out WiMAX. A new ABI Research report (I haven't seen it, just the abstract) justly points to the fact that it wasn't a contract but an LoI only. I agree with Phil Solis of ABI that the parties may still come together, but I believe they need a different approach, preferably full network sharing.

And: communicating a little better with the investment community.

Update on WiMAX

Some more factoids (see also the previous update).

• Standard: the ITU approval, I would add, is a set-back of sorts. Not 4G but 3G, as Mr. Daniels eloquently put it. I suppose if you want 'xG' real-life performance, you better aim for '(x+1)G' lab-performance. (Also, compare this WiFi distance record: 382 km!)
• Sprint/Clearwire: much has been said about the consequences for Sprint, Clearwire, Intel, Motorola and the rest of the WiMAX industry. I think Sprint doesn't communicate very well about its intentions, deploying so many standards (iDEN, CDMA, WiMAX). Also, the original MoU was somewhat puzzling to me. Building out together is only logical, but why not put the network assets into a joint venture? The way it was set-up made it look like a complicated roaming deal.
• WiMAX v. cellular: KPN decided to go with HSPA, not WiMAX, for rural deployments (fixed-line replacement, with WiFi for in-home and Digitenne for TV). No surprise: cellular technology is heavily entrenched.
• Deployments: recently mostly in emerging markets.
• Auctions: coming up in Japan, Italy, Mexico and New Zealand.

Update on WiMAX

WiMAX is gaining momentum, especially in Taiwan, Japan and Italy.

Looking at the technicalities, we have seen several interesting developments recently:

• Standard: The ITU approves the standard as 3G.
• Handover: Datang (a TD-SCDMA vendor) challenges the ITU decision, pointing to the lack of handover capabilities. Interestingly, Alcatel-Lucent and Onemax just demonstrated seamless 16e handover in the Dominican Republic, a 'world's first'.
• Interference: Reports out of Australia over satellite interference. Interesting to see how this develops.

Update on WiMAX

The WiMAX World 2007 Expo invited many participants to issue press releases. Here is a short overview of what is happening at the moment.

1. Equipment and technology
Several vendors have started interoperability testing. Also, competion for erstwhile first-movers Alvarion, Redline, Navini and Aperto is still on the rise, as Nortel, Nokia, Alcatel-Lucent and Motorola expand their offering. Alvarion is teaming with Hitachi for the Japanese market.

2. Auctions and licenses
Many auctions will be carried out in the short or medium term. Watch out for Japan, where two groups have formed, one around DoCoMo and one that includes SoftBand and eAccess.

3. Trials and deployments
There is no single trend here. Many emerging markets use the technology to leapfrog fixed network investments, AT&T is aiming for rural markets and Sprint is moving ahead on its 4G plan.

Of course, there is also the ongoing debate of WiMAX vs. LTE (not to mention Terahertz). It seems to me that LTE has a considerable advantage:

• It is an evolutionary technology to entrenched networks.
• It could be the tentative end point of both GSM and CDMA evolutions, as Verizon Wireless and Vodafone have attested.
• And the performance is continually enhanced, whereas WiMAX doesn't seem to have that much upside (but I am not quite sure of the latter point - readers please fill me in on that).

Gaiacomm: mad scientists v. the establishment

Back in July, I picked up a couple of factoids on the (not so good) real-life performance of WiMAX and xMax. I also noted that xMax had (surprisingly) received an award from Frost & Sullivan. Previously a company named Gaiacomm International had received a similar award. Referring to Gaiacomm as a ‘dormant’ company got its CTO commenting to my post. And that developed into quite an extensive exchange of questions and answers. By now, I have a large set of documents and presentations on the Gaiacomm wireless technology.

Gaiacomm has many facets to get skeptics ranting and raving. So here I am, calling upon scientists and corporate executives to take a look at Gaiacomm’s claims. If anybody is interested, I can mail the material.
Let me make it perfectly clear that I have no personal interest in the matter (unlike Stuart Schwarz, who was rewarded for validating xG’s xMax technology). I am interested in physics and in the proposed technology, where two quite different signals (ultra low and ultra high frequency) are superimposed, using DNA-theory. I cannot validate the claims, but I call on other people to verify or falsify them.

The wireless industry is at a junction. 3G Networks aren’t used to the max, but 4G is being developed already. Several companies are entering the industry (Apple, Google, Yahoo!, Microsoft), others are trying to grab a larger share of it (Nokia through Ovi, Vodafone through music downloads, etc.). Spectrum auctions are coming up around the world. Competing standards (WiMAX, xMax) are vying for ‘Third Stream’ status of sorts to existing GSM and CDMA-based networks.
In other words, it is now or never for Gaiacomm.

My plan B would be is to turn the whole thing into a movie. It has all the right ingredients to inspire a person like Michael Moore to produce a documentary on the wireless industry. It could even go beyond the ‘$200bn Broadband Scandal’ (Bruce Kushnick) or the ‘$750bn Telecom Heist’ (Om Malik). It would include:

• conspiracy theories, the CIA, the FBI and the NSA, as well as the states of Israel and Kuwait;
• a weapon of mass destruction, secret nuclear testing (Project Argus), mysteriously disappearing documents, leukemia casualties;
• the abandonned Wardenclyffe Tower antenna site in Long Island, other huge aboveground and underground sites in Wisconsin and Michigan;
• an amateur-turned-physicist from Greece, a Kentucky farmer who first invented the wireless telephone, a Latvian love-sick man who produced writings on magnetism and single-handedly built a giant coral monument for his unrequited love, and an autodiadict ‘mad scientist’ named Judah Ben-Hur who pays his bills by owning a company that transports human remains in Los Angeles.

The core elements of the story are:

• Gaiacomm proposes to build an open access 4G wireless communications system.
• It builds on a wide range of scientific theories, even beyond physics.
• Basically, it uses VLF as the carrier signal for terahertz radiation. The earth’s telluric currents are used to carry the signal worldwide.
• Gaiacomm is seeking $15m to build a prototype.
• And yes, they do address the Shannon theorem.

Here are the contents to my short story.

1. Introduction
2. The technology in quotations
3. Q&A
4. Specifications and Performance
5. Business Model and Current State of Affairs
6. Obstacles
7. Sources


1. Introduction

Gaiacomm claims superior wireless technology that could be the basis for a new 4G system. It builds on:

• standard physics theories, including Maxwell, Tesla, Faraday, and quantum physics;
• some unusual physics: terahertz technology; ground radiation; telluric currents; the Christofilos theory; Nathan Stubblefield, the Kentucky farmer who invented wireless telephony before Tesla or Marconi; and Edward Leedskalnin’s theories on magnetism;
• DNA theory and the workings of the sun;
• the same remarkable Edward Leedskalnin, who single-handedly built Coral Castle, for inspiration to Judah Ben-Hur.

2. The technology in quotations

Gaiacomm is guarding its protocols well. It does not want anybody to hijack them. Obviously, that makes validation hard, if not impossible. Moreover, describing the technology in general terms is a daunting task. The proposed architecture is quite different from any existing wireless system. So, here is a set of quotes from the documents I have that will give you a sense of what it is all about.

• This GWC (global wireless communications) technology primarily deals with a global network of land-based communication systems that uses the magnetic field of the earth (telluric currents) as a means to carry, reflect, and redistribute the signal, a modulated helix protocol, and dedicated continuous power output which will allow the use of newly designed wireless devices that are built around the new wireless protocol (terahertz).
• The vision of Gaiacomm International Corporation is to utilize its global wireless communications technology platform to enable both reliable and fairly priced wireless communications to people of all nations and races.
• William Gilbert discovered it, Faraday proved it, Maxwell laid the mathematics, Tesla and Nathan Stubbelfield built it, and Gaiacomm improved it to be as originally planned.
• The sun transmits energy to earth, and the earth filters out or absorbs the energy required to sustain an almost perfect bio-system. The earth also is an A/C induction engine that generates a sea of energy to protect itself and allow those with the insight to use its telluric currents to wirelessly communicate to the entire planet. The hardware (antennas, etc) must be made of an iron nickel base; the filters and detectors must be of a carbon/silicate base in order to channel the required waves (terahertz, VLF). The software must keep track of the signal, and direct its functions throughout the entire chain.
• To get terahertz radiation thru water and earth one only needs to go up the scale of energy, provided you use a low frequency as your carrier. The atoms (electrons, etc) will combine with each other to allow a ’binding’ (interlace) to allow you to transmit as much data as you wish thru the earth, around the earth and thru the ’air’ at little loss or drag due to the combining elements used, power applied and placement of the antenna on the planet.
• Science and business has stopped at the gigahertz range for reasons of financial survival. We challenge any scientist to prove that our 4G global wireless system does not work (function) as we claim. Many scientists and the like have disputed our claims but no one person has proven it with hardware. Anyone can claim, as we have, but we also wish to build what we claim. We do not have the financial or legal resources to protect our intellectual property rights, thus the seemingly vague responses.
• What we discovered is that the earth and its fields are very dynamic and oscillating at various frequencies. If one isolates these frequencies one will soon discover that there is one field that behaves and responds to impulses imposed on it. Like a rubber band pushed and pulled on to yield perfect response. These frequencies are terahertz waves. Extensive research has been done to generate these waves in a lab and in some cases in the field. The ’trick’ is to interlace the terahertz wave with the required data encoded and embed it on a low frequency wave to carry it worldwide and then “match” the signal wave to allow it to be reflected off the magnetic field by-passing the ionosphere. The ionosphere operates within the confines of the equipment and generation of the field/waves employed. Gaiacomm has taken the quantum leap to employ the next wave, which is the beginning of subspace communications. We use a form of frequency hopping which is properly synchronized. The net result is to maintain that single logical channel.
• We were able to understand the dissertation written by Shannon: “A Mathematical Theory of Communication”, Bell Syst. Techn. J., Vol. 27, pp. 379-423, 623-656, July, October 1948 and realized that Bell Labs (AT&T) needed a set of rules/laws to control the empire of communications, and by having one of its “own” establish a “blueprint” to build to, it sealed the success of Bell Labs (AT&T). Hardware designed in 1948 and later was all based on the “blue print” (Shannon) established, supported by Bell Labs (AT&T) and the rest of the scientific academia. Without this “blueprint”, Bell Labs (AT&T) and others were just “shooting in the dark”. It also guaranteed the establishment of a communications empire that could be controlled by the evidence supported by Bell Labs (AT&T) scientists, i.e., Shannon. It is evident that an information-bearing signal needs a specific bandwidth, whether it is to be transmitted in original or modulated (by a carrier) form. Or in other words, “how many bits of information can be transmitted without error per second over a channel with a bandwidth of N Hz, when the average signal power is limited to P watt, and the signal is exposed to an additive, white (uncorrelated) noise of power N with Gaussian probability distribution”. Thus Shannon came up with a ’formula’, C = W log2 (1 + P/N) bits/second. Given the vastness and scale of electromagnetic energy that exists in the universe, Shannon and others only defined a small section of energy that makes up the particular frequencies used. Maxwell already suggested that the electromagnetic spectrum is “endless”. Terahertz waves have unique properties when combined with others “like”, and “dissimilar” waves. It was also noted that when filtered power is applied (modulated) to terahertz waves and VLF waves below 9 hertz it also displays unique properties. Shannon defined a set of rules/laws for designers (engineers) to build to, (Shannon’s Law), given the frequencies used and allowed at that time (3kHZ-NHZ) - and the hardware (oscillators, etc) designed to accommodate the overall systems. The hardware designs were limited due to technology and a better understanding of the governing dynamics of electromagnetism, thus Shannon and others developed a ’baseline’ for general communications. Since 1920, no one successfully challenged the foundations (science) of communications (Information technology) (Shannon’s Law) because of the ’control’ and the well-established network that existed then and now (2007). The monies spent (billions) over the years and the numerous competing networks have “sealed” the fate of others like Gaiacomm International from challenging the communication systems that exists today. Thru perseverance and hard work we have re-discovered what others have left behind. Hardware and materials today are well equipped to handle new designs; software algorithms that did not exist in 1948 add depth and scale to our designs. It is almost impossible to compete with the existing wireless technologies and governmental controls, thus we decided to “go around” Shannon’s Laws and governmental controls and develop a new “standard” of rules based on the same fundamental principles established by Maxwell, Tesla and others. Shannon and others defined what was required at that time, (hardware and software restricted) thus making it difficult to design reliable systems that can operate with great efficiencies today (2007). We believe that any amount of error-free data can be transmitted over a channel of any given bandwidth not limited by noise (Terahertz/hertz (VLF)). We believe that Shannon's Law applies to a particular channel of spectrum known during that period of time; we are able to add more channels because of the characteristic quality of Terahertz energy and the forward development of technology today (2007). We believe that wireless technologies, are limited to the spectrum available because of control from a few and the lack of knowledge of electromagnetic energy. No one other than Gaiacomm International has decided to use another spectrum (terahertz) not currently regulated or controlled by the few (FCC, ITU, etc). We changed the values of the equations (Shannon) to satisfy the new data (power/frequency/entropy/snr, etc). We believe that there is not a finite, maximum speed for transmitting ’intelligent energy’. Transmitted power and filtered circuits to specs makes this possible. “The two fundamental factors governing the maximum speed of data transmission are the shape of the signal and the choice of “code” used to represent the intelligence”. We have discovered that Terahertz waves generate a specific “shape” when modulated using a “code” that allows for this signal shape (OFDM, PCM, UMB, Wimax etc). Instead of rectangle or square waves we can generate a different geometric shape. Resonance plays an important role in this, as does the filtered power. Theoretically you will have lower interference and higher capacity gains. Interference cancellation and forward error correction technologies are such that they can allow for a superior transmission, thus assisting in the ’seamless’ generation/transceiver/interpretation protocol.
• The overall system will consist of an array of custom designed equipment, tooled parts and specialized processes all combined together to prove without a doubt the existence of terahertz waves and the methodology required to use the magnetic field and the earth’s entire surface to transponder and receive a signal at any given rate without loss of signal strength.
• Digital data encoding schema: Structurally, DNA is a double helix: two strands of genetic material spiraled around each other. Each strand contains a sequence of bases (also called nucleotides). The two strands of DNA are connected at each base. The same applies for the terahertz band and the low frequency band bonding technique. A double helix combination. Each base will only bond with one other base, as follows: Adenine (A) will only bond with thymine (T), and guanine (G) will only bond with cytosine (C). This bonding combination applies to the relationship of terahertz/hertz bonding combinations. Example of this would be a one strand of DNA like this:
  A-A-C-T-G-A-T-A-G-G-T-C-T-A-G
  The DNA strand bound to it will look like this:
  T-T-G-A-C-T-A-T-C-C-A-G-A-T-C.
  Together, the section of DNA would be represented like this:
  T-T-G-A-C-T-A-T-C-C-A-G-A-T-C
  A-A-C-T-G-A-T-A-G-G-T-C-T-A-G
  DNA strands are read in a particular direction, from the top (called the 5’ or ‘five prime’ end) to the bottom (called the 3’ or ‘three prime’ end). In a double helix, the strands go opposite ways:
  5’ T-T-G-A-C-T-A-T-C-C-A-G-A-T-C 3’
  3’ A-A-C-T-G-A-T-A-G-G-T-C-T-A-G 5’
  Now lets consider the same technique applied to the terahertz and hertz band combination:
  5*TH-T-HZ-TH-TH-HZ-TH-HZ-T-TH-HZ-HZ-T-T-TH 3*
  We have left out the last sequence codec on purpose. Thru the study of the DNA helix matrix, we found that this technique can be mimicked in a communications schema.
• What we propose is to demonstrate a wireless communications system in principle by building an antenna/receiving system with an estimated cost of material and labor at $3.5 million, this includes all transmitter/receiver hardware, all electronic test equipment, special tooling molds, material needs, housings, cabling, circuit breadboards, measuring equipment, small electronic hardware, building to house the equipment, lab to plan and assemble, test bed data collectors, software programming equipment, electric power usage, mockup of submarine submersion gear, scuba equipment, travel to various locations, hotel and other living expenses, mobile terminals, spectrum receivers, antifading hardware, high speed power transmitter controllers, redundant compensation controllers and software, redundant propagation compensators, multipath propagators, auto tracking hardware, adaptive space-time processing algorithms, radio on fiber to transmit multiservice radio signals thru optical networks, develop a special frequency reuse modulator, network control station, environmental data collection, down converters, data links, geo-data collection, redundant magnetic allocations, magnifier coil, oscillators of various sizes, numerous small materials, mockup submarine shell, scalable mobile network to demonstrate digital service to handsets, laptops and other wireless devices, special smelting process to yield material used for conductive antenna, design of isotropic equipment including antenna array, Bit error rate controller,(1 bit will be in error for every 1 billion bits transmitted), bit rate generator( unlimited N), Bits per second booster( over 1 billion per second), coder/decoder, compandor(compressor-expander), datagram generator(packet), datalink connection identifier, frame relay, line frames, power and frequency modulation equipment, last mile data collection, documentation equipment, film hardware, video equipment for recording of data and experiments, multiplexer hardware, rate adaptation hardware design, router designs, routing tables developed, computers of varying speeds and size, software programs of varying need, 10,000sq ft structure for design, testing and assemblage of equipment to be demonstrated, custom built transducers, resonators, optics, fiber strands.
• The science implied here is demonstrating that terahertz waves and hertz waves combined together can be modulated to the magnetic field of the earth reflected back to the surface area, demodulated and spread in a wave that can be received at a specific point, measured and understood. A link will be established with a wireless device, a submerged craft, a aircraft, an array of stealth vehicles, computers of varying mix, and all forms of wireless communications pre-determined protocols to demonstrate without any doubt that claims made can be validated by independent sources as well as staff of Gaiacomm. All rates of transmission will be subject to discloursure before demos are scheduled.
• Power requirements: We require dedicated power source to the lab.
• We plan to have a full-scale demo ready for extensive evaluation within 12 months of funding. A detailed project schedule will be prepared later.
  

3. Q&A

Here are a number of questions and answers that Judah ben-Hur specifically supplied to clear up a number of things.

• Are you suggesting that the reflective nodes, repeaters act basically as a mesh between all repeaters and the base station? NO NOT EXACTLY. THEY ARE A 360 DEGREE HOMOGENOUS FUNCTIONAL SYSTEM. Also, if the base station antenna is 300 ft tall, how tall is the repeaters? Same? I AM ESTIMATING THAT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT DIFFERENCE IN HEIGHT FOR BOTH HUB AND TRANSEIVERS. THE 300FT CAN BE USED AS A BASELINE FOR NOW BUT I AM WORKING ON REDUCING THE HEIGHT. I am also assuming that the repeaters are isotropic (spherical) antenna, just like the base station. YES, THAT IS CORRECT.
• Also, based upon MIMO processes and math, the MIMO radio takes into consideration multiple paths in and out of each radio; we could use MIMO technology between the BS and RS and use multiple paths to ensure data transmissions. YES WE COULD BUT I MUST SOLVE THE MULTIUSER DECTION PROBLEM FIRST. WE WILL HAVE INTERSYMBOL INTERFERENCE, ETC THAT NEEDS TO BE OVERCOME AND NOT PATCHED TO SATISFY A FEW. I AM NOW STUDYING THE VITERBI ALGORITHM. WE NEED TO SOLVE THIS A BIT TO INCREASE THE MEGABIT THRUPUT. I ALSO AM SOLVING THE CHANNEL MODELING PROBLEM THAT NOW EXISTS WITH WIRELESS NOW. Also, based upon RS repeaters, if we need to cover basically 100 miles radius from the BS, how far out would the repeaters have to be from the base station, I need this info for the Michigan preso. WE CAN EITHER PLACE THEM AT THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE BORDERS OF THE STATE OR 300-MILES SQ FROM THE HUB. MAKE SURE WE ARE CLOSE TO POWER. Also, instead of using fiber optic ring around the RS and BS, we could use a different frequency and/or different channel to mesh the station together instead of hard-wired fiber optics. The question is, can we create a reverse RF mux to basically bring in multiple channels of THz signals together as one? WHAT WE DO IS DE-MULTIPLEX THE SIGNAL FROM AS MANY CHANNELS AS WE DESIRE COMING INTO THE BACK DOOR EITHER BY MICROWAVE, FIBER OR WHATEVER WE DESIRE. ONCE WE GET THE DATA WE WILL THEN RE-PROCESS IT, COMPRESS IT AND RE-MODULATE IT TO TERAHERTZ AND THEN BROADCAST IT USING HZ AS THE BUS TO CARRY OUR DATA TO MULTIPLE DESTINATIONS AT 186, 363.2536 MILES PER SEC.
• Since we are running both Hz & THz, does the receivers have to pick up both the Hz and THz signals and just the THz? The system main hub is the antenna element which means that it is very important to have the right material and geometry of each element to create the effect that is desired which is to act as a conduit of RF energy that is reflected from the magnetic field of the earth and re distributed using the earth’s surface as a counter-reflector thus transposing a signal into a 360 degree footprint. We will employ the dynamics of HZ waves (ELF) to carry the signal thru the earth and all bodies of materials, however embedded within that wave is the Terahertz signal which will have its own unique signature.
• Since we are running both Hz & THz frequencies, will we have to dual-polarize each single transmission? Yes that is a possibility. It would make since to have the signal polarized from the base station. TDD would be most likely because it uses a single channel to transmit and receive rather than FDD, which uses two channels one to transmit, and one to receive. We will decide which one soon. They both have advantages.
• To cover 500,000 sq miles, signal must run approx. a radial coverage of 700 miles, is this correct? That would be correct if you were calculating the SKA using the basic array for coverage of antennas in the hundreds based on current RFI suppression schemes and dealing with variable beams from the antennas. We are using an isotropic antenna array with very exact coverage footprints based on the distance of elements, power and broadcast schema that will be employed. In conclusion: high dynamic range requirements argue for large numbers of antennas. So the SKA would be 500,000 ska.
• Since data-bandwidth is directly related to signal strength, what bandwidth can be expected at 700-mile distance? First we will need a processor more than 32bit to process the information received. Something like MIPS as an example. 100 or more gigabits per second at more than 700 SKA. That is contingent on the processor.
• What is the ratio of mega-watts to radial distance? 1-100 vs. miles. Every 1,000 watts of continuous dc power will yield 100,000 ska, Our isotropic antenna will radiate in all 3 dimensional directions PD = (P(t) / 4 * pi * r^2). This is the power density formula.
• If a single signal does not have to be polarized, then we can expect to run redundant broadcast by polarizing the signal, correct? Yes, see answer #2.
• We need to support IPv6 for European and North American support, this gives us the ability to use SIP right away without writing our own protocol, your latency calcs show virtually none, is this correct? There will be some latency but not the current values that exist with any current telecommunications system. Yes we will use a modified version of SIP to account for the increased compression, signal strength and frequency used. I.e. Hz/THZ.
• Encryption is going to add over-head to the payload, have you had any thoughts on what to use here? Encryption is vital and there should be no compromise. 448 bit high compression software or higher are a must. There are commercial companies that specialize in this type of software.
• All items I have read have to deal with broadcast signals typically used for coverage to clients, either mobile or fixed CPE devices, has there been consideration for a very narrow focused signals for wireless back-hauling our towers so that we only have to run fiber to 1 or 2 spots? If we used a 10-degree antenna, can we achieve 100 tbps over 100 miles? The antenna is an isotropic radiator that broadcasts omni directional. You will still need some optical fiber and wireless optical devices for backend and backbone connection.
• We will want to cut all calcs by thirds for this reason: re fingerprinting or RF triangulation. We will need at least 3 different signals to help the system accurately locate attached clients; this is a huge feature and is worth building it into the system, do you agree? Yes, I agree. We will be able to divide the channels in such a way to be able to use more than base stations to get a fix. We can use landmark areas like buildings and mountains to get a fix by skipping across the horizon or even using the crust of the earth (Plates) to get fixes of location. Each type of rock has a unique signature that can be used to reference and locate.
• As I understand your document, you basically want to use a DNA -like helix structure for data compression, correct? Yes. This is the framework and geometry in nature that works well and can encode and decode without loss of data. Nature has given us a means to transpose signals without jeopardizing its strength.
• Has anyone done any programming on this yet? Only on paper with algorithms to define the colony and cluster.
• Obviously this is data-compression, allows us to send more data at the same time, due to the helix structure, we will need to compress and de-compress this helix upon receiving and sending in order to transverse the system, what type of processor, memory and delay will this cause? Any thoughts? We will need the best processor on the planet. Intel and others like them have prototype chips that just need a box to go in. Ex. 001010101,01010101= 1 in short 2 for 1.

4. Specifications and Performance

Here are some factoids from the paperwork.

• The core of this proprietary technology exists of both GAIA3 (OFDM-based) and WORP (wireless outdoor routing protocol’).
• Transmission speeds are up to 100 Tbps, but predicted ‘fixed’ performance is 10 Gbps, mobile performance 10 Mbps.
• Antenna: THz radiation, using the 1-6 THz band (not regulated); MIMO; 100,000-1m Watts. VLF radiation 0-9 hertz to carry the embedded signal.
• Shannon’s Theorem does not apply in the THz band because the hardware has changed to accommodate a higher more robust frequency band.
• Worldwide coverage: 9 antennae (transmitters/stations, 50 ft diameter) and 27 towers (transceivers).
• Antenna coverage area: up to 5.1m m^2.

5. Business Model and Current State of Affairs

Gaiacomm opts to be a B2B company, offering wholesale services to both existing operators and new entrants. They can outsource their network to Gaiacomm.
“This removes barriers to entry for marketing-focused organizations that want to enter the wireless market.”

Currently, Gaiacomm is seeking funding ($15m) “to construct a working prototype that not only can demo the technology but also enable Gaiacomm International to commence commercial operations on a limited scale to produce revenues.”

Fahdtel issued an RfP to Gaiacomm in August 2004 for a nationwide network in Kuwait. However, in the end they decided to go for 3G instead of 4G/Gaiacomm.

Frost & Sullivan award (Sep 2004).

Gaiacomm presented itself at the ‘4th Annual Terahertz System Conference’, May 15-16, 2006 in Washington, DC.


6. Obstacles

To be completely open about my take on this technology, I put together this list of potential obstables to testing, funding and validation – or even being taken seriously.

• Will it work? How will it scale? How will it perform relative to GSM/LTE, CDMA/UMB and WiMAX?
• Claiming 100 Tbps and being very secretive over one’s protocols smells like a scam – or of somebody trying to get rich quick. The claims are seemingly outrageous, even though real-life claims are more modest (10 Mbps for mobile). Comparisons with xG will not help. Jim DeGries unfortunately was turned off before taking a serious look.
• Current wireless networks are deeply entrenched and the entire industry is working on evolutions toward 4G (GSM to LTE, CDMA to UMB). Other newcomers include WiMAX and xMax. Established players may want to prevent Gaiacomm from launching.
• Demand for high-speed multimedia services is disappointing. (However, it may show quite some elasticity once prices come down.)
• The theory is very difficult to understand from a physics point of view, involving quantum physics and a whole range of other theories.
• Google, the Great Disruptor, could want to partner with Gaiacomm, but is too entrenched in the existing wireless business by now through various partnerships. The same goes for Yahoo!, Microsoft and Apple.
• ‘Side effect’: weapon of mass destruction. “Selective ignition of atoms to create a controlled fusion explosion over a selected target (Compton Effect). Land based (thousands of kilometers from target) or orbited device. (Ref: Eastlund Patents, Tesla Patents).”
• “Weapon of mass destruction: by understanding the dynamics of the atmosphere or we should say the basics of rf signals and the effects they have on molecules one can then understand how to manipulate them in such a way to create a fusion reaction by matching their resonant frequency then offset it with a power burst coupled by a slight phase shift of the signal generated which in plain terms will ignite the surrounding layer of atmosphere and incinerate everything within its path from 1000km to 600ft underground. To give the “source” code combination of this process will expose the trade secret of this technology and place many people at risk of someone using this technology to hold the world hostage. All is needed is one ISO antenna of N height, Power is P resonate coding is RSCI, oscillating frequency is nT+nHz, = FLSHB. The beauty of this technology is that you can ‘dial’ in a pre-selected region of an area and begin the process from a distance away or several thousands of miles. To verify this data see Dr. Bernard Eastland’s work on this in his patent from ARCO in 1985, (APTI). We were able to take his data and perfect it by understanding the principles applied.”
• The company is in fact dormant, as Judah ben-Hur admitted.
• It’s PR could use some tweaking. Perhaps people are even turned off by the CTO’s very name (Judah Ben-Hur), not to mention his postings on all sorts of forums and blogs.

7. Sources

Gaiacomm:
Corporate web site
20 Business Applications That Will Benefit from Gaiacomm’s TeraHertz-Based Technology
Project Nemo
Request for funding to the FBI
Presentation (+ data sheets) to the ’4th Annual Terahertz System Conference, May 15-16, 2006 in Washington, DC. Topic: The Art of Global Wireless Communications’
4 sets of Q&A (July 24, 2007, August 3, 2007 and Sep 11, 2007 (2x))
Argument Shannon word file (August 3, 2007)
Answer to Kuwait RfP (Sep 5, 2007)
Conference call (July 26, 2007)
RFP from Kuwait (FahdTel, dated August 29, 2004)
The Art of Global Wireless Communications 2002 (dated Dec 2, 2002)
Nicholas Constantine Christofilos (not dated)
Terahertz Technology and the Sun (Sep 3, 2007)

Frost & Sullivan:
Frost & Sullivan Honors Gaiacomm International with 2004 Wi-Max Technology Innovation of the Year Award (September 22, 2004)
Movers and Shakers interview
xG Technology, Inc. Lauded for its Innovative, Long-range Broadband Technology (June 25, 2007)
Emerging Mobile Broadband Technologies Poised to Revolutionise the Wireless Industry (July 23, 2007)

Wikipedia:
History of radio
Invention of radio
Wardenclyffe Tower or Tesla Tower
Terahertz radiation
Project or Operation Argus
Shannon’s theorem
Double helix
William Gilbert
Michael Faraday
James Clerk Maxwell
Nikola Tesla
Nathan Stubblefield
Edward Leedskalnin
Coral Castle

Other:
My post on the performance of WiMAX and xMax, referring to Gaiacomm as ‘dormant’ (July 2, 2007)
Forum of PhysOrg.com (Jan-Feb 2007)
Wild Wireless at Wireless Facts and Fiction (Jim DeGries blog; July 23, 2007)
An Introduction to the Mysteries of Ground Radio (Gerry Vassilatos; not dated)
Operation Argus report (1982, 142 page pdf file)
Project Argus film clip on YouTube
The Coral Castle website
The Nathan Stubblefield website

Adding some realism to WiMAX and xMax

How realistic are claims of both WiMAX and xMax when it comes to cost savings on network build-outs, relative to GSM or CDMA-based networks?

I suppose a good deal of common sense (if not scepticism) is needed.

Just to add a thought on each:

• WiMAX: in this release it is revealed that the range is limited to just 0.75-1.00 miles when indoor-coverage is needed to deliver 5 Mbps. Remember that originally, WiMAX was supposed to deliver up to 120 Mbps over a distance of up to 50 km?
• xMax: I was a little puzzled over the Frost & Sullivan award last week. That seems quite premature, as xMax is far from both technical and commercial reality (see this article): "But is it stretching the rules of economics, or those of physics?" The company behind the 'Flash Signal' technology, xG technologies, puts forward Prof Stuart Schwartz. But the article quotes Prof Ben Friedlander, who dismisses the technology. Who should we believe? Now, Frost & Sullivan seems to add some weight to the xG/xMax side, but the article delicately reminds us of a similar award in 2004 for Gaiacomm ("transmit a signal of any strength to all parts of the planet up to and including inner space and outer space"), which is dormant now. Lastly, the fact that Stuart Schwartz held an interest in xG must not be overlooked (check out this paper from last September, prior to the IPO).

Network operators give limited clarity

Network separation as well as sharing are gaining momentum, but several operators provide limited clarity on their long-term strategies.

• Sprint Nextel: having several networks (iDEN for P2T, CDMA for voice and data) already, it is ready to add WiMAX (for 4G) to the mix. The iDEN networks needs investments for maintaining a certain quality level, while the CDMA network is being upgraded continuously (Rev A, B, C). The company appears to be looking for a partner in WiMAX. Will all networks converge one day?
• Deutsche Telekom: outside Germany and Eastern Europe (where it owns PTTs), the company has a mobile-only strategy (with WiFi). However, buying Orange NL would add an LLU operator. OK, that can be sold on, but to whom?
• France Telecom: selling Orange NL makes sense, given weak market positions in both wireless and LLU. However, the company owns many wireless operators and yesterday added Austria. So far, triple play offerings are limited to France, Poland, the UK and Spain (as well as fixed/BB in several smaller countries). What about the mobile-only operations, like Austria - will they add LLL or BB?

Australia plans ADSL2+/WiMAX network

Australia has awarded AUD 958m to the OPEL Networks joint venture of Optus and Elders, to build a combined ADSL2+/WiMAX network. It is part of the government's Australia Connected initiative.
The network will consist of 15k km of fiber backhaul, 426 exchanges (to cover 3m households with ADSL2+) and WiMAX (for regional areas).
End-user pricing should come in the range of 35-60 AUD/mo, depending on speed. In 2009 the maximum speed should be 12 Mbps, which is subsequently to be raised. The network should cover 99% of the population. The other 1% is eligible for a 2750 AUD/household subsidy.

I find this a remarkable move. First, the G9 consortium (around Optus - also), as well as Telstra, is vying for building a FTTN/VDSL network. Second, an ADSL2+/WiMAX looks like combining 'old' technology (ADSL2+) with unproven and possibly inferior (to LTE) technology (WiMAX), as Telstra is eager to point out.

For reference, read Alan Kohler's case for FTTH (as opposed to FTTN) and Grahame Lynch's case for a merger of the G9 consortium members, which nicely fits my view on how to beat the incumbent.

Vodafone launches WiMAX service

The Vodafone group adds a another technology, aimed at being a 'Total Communications' provider. Apart from owning a DSL-operator (Germany) or reselling one (UK, Italy, etc.), the company (i.e. MTC-Vodafone) is launching WiMAX service in Bahrain.
It is the fixed-wireless version (16d), in other words the DSL-replacement.

WiFi gearing up

This article contains the timeline for 802.11r, the WiFi standard enabling handover and thus mobility. The IEEE targets certification early 2008.

The interesting thing to me is that by adding mobility, WiFi could take away even more traffic from cellular networks. Wireless operators embracing WiFi could use this to stave off potential competition from WiMAX networks.

NextWave adds IPWireless to its portfolio

NextWave Wireless, the opportunistic wireless operator of yore, has acquired 4G contender IPWireless, known for both its 4G technology (TD CDMA or UMTS TDD) and its mobile TV technology (TDtv). Telephony Online has a good piece addressing NextWave's strategy.

It is interesting for two reasons: instead of focusing on WiMAX, NextWave it is building a much broader portfolio; and instead of opting to be a carrier or a vendor, it travels both paths in order to spur adoption.

To me it sounds unconvincing because NextWave lacks the scale and power to really make a difference (even if they just raised $355m). I would have preferred a focus on really cool technology. IPWireless doesn't seem to be a winner, with the majors focusing on WiMAX (Sprint, Intel, Motorola), LTE (Ericsson) or UMB (Qualcomm), or some homegrown technology (Samsung, Nortel, NTT DoCoMo, Chinese 3G and McWiLL). Also, the NGNM (next gen mobile initiative) of most of the major operators seems to focus on either LTE, WiMAX or UMB.

Possibly, NextWave is really attracted by IPWireless' patent portfolio, its mobile TV technology (which however seems niche) and some existing contracts. Besides, NextWave doesn't exactly position itself as an attractive takeover candidate.

With Flarion bought by Qualcomm and IPWireless acquired by NextWave, interest may now turn to xG Technologies (xMax), ArrayComm or even CSIRO's technology.

UPDATE: Trial partner IPMobile is exiting the Japanse market. Adjust that earn-out downwards.

More corporate action to trigger the telco sector

Continuing on this post, I dug up some more ongoing business dealings.

Operators for sale:

• Alltel
• Pipex (and C&W?) in the UK; possibly Lycos Germany, Jazztel (Spain), and PT's PT Multimedia unit
• FastWeb (Italy) could attract a counterbid (next to Swisscom's).
• Telefonica not only has Endemol up for sale (late March), but Airwave (UK) as well.
• Deutsche Telekom is shopping Ya.com (Spain) and Club Internet (France) around.
• TDC's owners are looking for buyers for HTCC (Hungary), sunrise (Switzerland) and Talkline (Germany).
• Both Lebanon and Libya are selling two state-owned mobile operators.
• Stakes in state-owned PTT's may change hand: OTE, TI, DT, PT, TeliaSonera, as well as the operators of Bulgaria, Uganda, Botswana and Algeria.

IPOs:

• Infamous Versatel (Germany) and Flag Telecom may re-enter.
• Several wireless operators: MetroPCS, Colombia Movil, GrameenPhone, Safaricom and Spice Telecom.

Licenses:

• Fixed line, SNO: Saudi Arabia and Kenya.
• Wireless (2G and/or 3G): Iceland, Germany (2008), France (2008), Canada (2008), Russia (2007 and 2008), Vietnam, Norway (2007), Sweden (2007)
• WiMAX: Ireland (2007), Italy (2007), Portugal (2007), Sweden (2007), UK (2007).

Product/service launches:

• DT will launch a secondary brand in Germany, aimed at the youth market (summer 2007).
• Handsets: Apple's iPhone (June) and perhaps news around the 'Google Phone'
• FTTN may come to Australia.
• FTTH in Paris will be launched by Neuf and Iliad.
• MVNOs from KPN and BT may come to Spain.
• Wireless VoIP tests at Vodafone (Starfish) and StarHub (pfingo) may have some impact.
• Breaking down the wireless walled garden at Hutchison 3G (X-Series) will be followed by Amp'd Mobile's launch of the MOTO Q (with Sling and Orb).

Regulation:

• EC on international roaming (June)
• EC v. Germany regarding DT's FTTN/VDSL network (any day?)
• OPTA on KPN's All-IP network (June)

WiMAX round-up

Just for convenience:

• Technology: IEEE proposes the new 802.16m standard.
• Hardware: Palm rumoured to plan a WiMAX Treo - ultra-thin, mind you.
• Roaming: WiSOA sets up the first alliance.
• IPOs: Clearwire debuted as the #3 pureplay (after xG and Towerstream).
• Plans: Vodafone and Sprint provide views.
• Tenders: Italy, Taiwan, Israel, Thailand.
• Trials: Swisscom, TVA (Brazil), Worldmax (Netherlands), Altech (South Africa).
• Deployments: BSNL in India, Dialog in Sri Lanka, Nexcom in Bulgaria, Åre Network in Sweden, Neotel in South Africa, Emax in Peru, UHT in the Ukraine, Arab Telecom in Kuwait, ABC in Canada, EgyNet in Egypt, the state of Catalonia, Telecom Namibia, ICE in Costa Rica, etc.

WIMAX://Monks need no wires

Now here's a new launch: WiMAX is coming to Mount Athos. Where else would you start your nationwide roll-out? Monks may need no women, but they sure do need to communicate.

A blessed plan of the Greek incumbent, OTE.

Aperto is to supply base stations, which just got a nice award.

2007: extending 2006 trends

Here are some thoughts on 2007, mainly as simple extensions of 2006 developments.

Telecom:
- 2006 was the year of the seeds of WiMAX (more of a supplement than a replacement) and wVoIP (to rebalance mobile pricing toward flat-fees)
- My personal favorite: Google’ efficient power supply
- Third world countries profit from the lack of legacy systems, as witnessed by WiMAX, 3G and NGN builds
- Regulation: international roaming cuts to be effective; NMa on Tiscali/KPN; one EU regulator; the rise of VDSL/FTTP (NL, D) will pressure regulators and altnets alike
- Structural separation: to happen in Ireland, Denmark, New-Zealand
- Standards, technology: 802.11n ratification, UWB certification (and a mobile handset from SKT/Staccato), CDMA Rev C, TVoW
- Auctions (spectrum, licenses): UK (WiMAX/mobile TV/UMTS), Russia (3G), Montenegro (2G/3G), Kosovo (2G/3G), Macedonia (2G/3G), France (UMTS), China (3G), Kuwait (2G/3G), Saudi Arabia (2G/3G), Chile (3G), Nigeria (3G), Cyprus (WiMAX), Italy (WiMAX), Finland (mobile TV)
- Operator launches: Etisalat in Egypt, eMobile in Japan, Vodafone BB in the UK; WiMAX from Sprint and many others; more FTTH (focus on symmetrical BB)
- Service launches: X-Series (Hutch), IPTV (KPN), TVoW, wVoIP, WiMAX; mobile and fixed operators converging by moving toward triple/quad plays
- MVNOs: many to come to market (Spain, France)
- Subbrands: telcos will copy KPN’s sucessful strategy
- For sale: Hutch 3G, Hutch Essar, Tiscali UK, FastWeb?, TDC mobile assets, PT, directories of Windstream, Endemol (Telefonica), debitel DK/FR/NL/Slovenia, TIM Brasil (TI), TIM Hellas (TPG/Apax), Alltel, Leap?
- Buyers include PE, China Mobile, Vodafone; and professional hooverers KPN, BT, FT; more ICT takeovers
- Corporate: strategy update from DT
- IPO: NextWave (from OTC to Nasdaq) and Clearwire; Oger Telecom?; Idea Cellular
- Mobile: tariffing (homezones, personalisation, flat rates) aimed at FMS, reducing churn and stimulating data/3G usage; more applications, as diverse as Disney Mobile, Nokia’s new software-based N-Gage, KPN’s AyWorld and payments/banking; advertising-based services (Blyk MVNO in the UK)
- Applications: will an operator buy an applications provider?
- The dogs of 2006: Sprint Nextel, DT, FT, TI, Telecom New Zealand

Internet:
- 2006 was the year of: video, Web 2.0 (UGC, social networks, sharing), virtual life
- Terry Semel will leave Yahoo!, Susan Decker to take over, replacement for SD at Audience unit
- Google market share is likely to peak
- eBay could start paying dividends
- Jon Miller (formerly AOL), Dan Rosensweig (formerly Yahoo!), Lloyd Braun (formerly Yahoo!) and Ross Levinsohn (formerly News Corp) are looking for jobs
- AOL could be sold
- Yahoo! could score more telco/cableco deals
- More offline deals (mobile, print, TV, radio)
- The dogs of 2006: Yahoo!, eBay, Amazon.com, Cnet, Overstock.com

Media:
- 2006 was the year of: broadband video, VoD, place-shifting
- Regulation: the US could drop the 30% audience limit on MSOs
- EMI and Warner Music are likely to merge finally; Vivendi will sell its 20% NBC Universal stake to GE
- RCN is still up for sale
- The education units of Thomson Corp and Wolters Kluwer will be sold
- Launches: a new free, ad-funded high-quality newspaper, delivered daily door-to-door in the Netherlands
- #3 movies (i.e. 2nd sequels): Spiderman, Bourne, Shrek, Pirates, Ocean’s
- Ad accounts under review: Wal-Mart, Heineken, Philips
- The dogs of 2006: Viacom, Lagardere, XM, Sirius