Showing posts with label FTTO. Show all posts
Showing posts with label FTTO. Show all posts

Sunday, August 09, 2020

Week 32 in Telecoms, Internet, Media

CORPORATE

Earnings
  • VodafoneZiggo: 20Q2 prelim (final: Aug 2020)
    • stopped using OCF, replaced by Adj EBITDA
    • 95% of targeted cost synergies (210m) realised, on track to deliver 1 yr early
    • spectrum costs (EUR 416m) to be paid 50/50 in 2020 & 2021, to be funded by new shareholder loans
    • maintains guidance 2020 (despite expected economic slowdown): adj EBITDA stable to modest growth, TSR 400-500m
  • Liberty Global 20Q2
  • TIM: 20Q2
  • Intred: 20Q2
  • Magyar Telekom: 20Q2
  • CK Hutchison/3 Group Europe: 20Q2
  • Rostelecom: 20Q2
  • SES: 20Q2
  • Intelsat: 20Q2
  • Viasat: 20/21Q1
  • Warner Music: 20Q2
  • Sony: 20/21Q1
  • Walt Disney: 19/20Q3
  • ViacomCBS: 20Q2
    • Pluto reached 26.5m MAU in US (target 30m YE 2020), global 33m MAU
    • CBS All Access & Showtime 16.2m subs in US
  • Discovery: 20Q2
  • AMC Networks: 20Q2
  • AMC Entertainment: 20Q2
  • Fox Corp: 20/21Q4     
  • ITV: 20Q2 
  • Activision Blizzard: 20Q2
  • Nielsen: 20Q2
    • to spin off Global Connect unit 21Q1

M&A

Funding
Expansion
  • Amazon
  • UGC
    • Facebook: Instagram launches Reels in >50 countries [see 20070716]: create 15-sec edited videos
    • Snap: Snapchat launches feature to add music to Snaps (trial in Australia & NZ) [a la TikTok], licensing deals with Warner Music, Warner Chappell, Universal Music Publishing, NMPA, Merlin


NETWORKS

Fixed

5G

4G


CONTENT

Video

  • SKO (NL): living room TV set usage down for live linear TV, up double digit for delayed and VOD viewing
  • US District Judge approves DoJ termination of Paramount Consent Decrees (barred studios from owning movie theaters (applied to Warner Bros, 20th Century Fox, Paramount)
  • Walt Disney
    • Disney+ reaches 60.5m subs; Mulan to premiere on Disney+ 200904 for $30 (one-off TVOD offering); Disney+ to expand to Indonesia 200905
    • plans new int OTT service Star 2021 [instead of expanding Hulu internationally], content from content from ABC, FX, Freeform, Searchlight, 20th Century Studios, no licensed content, focus on adults
    • Disney+, Hulu (35.5m) & ESPN+ (8.5m) have combined >100m subs
    • Hulu adds annual subscription tier, 60 $/yr (first for existing subs)
  • ViacomCBS
    • No plans to bundle CBS All Access, Showtime, BET+. Noggin as single service in US
    • Plans global SVOD service early 2021 in Australia, Nordics, Latam, with originals from Showtime, CBS All Access, content from CBS, MTV, Comedy Central, Nickelodeon, some first-run moviers from Paramount; to continue from existing services in some countries: Australia (CBS All Access), Nordics, E-Europe, Latam (Paramount+)
  • Discovery plans streaming service (as companion to services such as Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, Disney+)
  • Eleven Sports rebrands to Eleven; strategy update (2.0): to expand in Europe from 2021, adds 3 vertical: Elevenwomen, Elevennext (local), Eleven Esports
  • Quibi launches free+ads AVOD tier in Australia/NZ, reduces SVOD tier from 13 to 7 AUD/mo

Music

Gaming

  • Microsoft: to launch xCloud (streaming) 200915 for Android (ended iOS test) in 22 countries (AT, BE, Canada, CZ, DK, FI, FR, DE, HU, IE, IT, NL, NO, PL, PT, Slovakia, ES, SK, SE, CH, UK, US) with >100 games, as part of Xbox Game Pass Ultimate (15 $/mo); with Xbox & 3rd-party controllers (Sony, Razer, PowerA, 8BitDo); distr deal in SK with SKT

SERVICES

Telekom DE expands MagentaEINS-Beta-Tarif (service ends 210930) to 2000 more subs, 20 EUR/mo in 12 mo contract: fixed (VDSL max 50 Mb/s + mobile (LTE; unlimited in DE for voice, text, data; 15 GB EU data) 
KT launches smart building services, with KT Estate: Smart Building Sensing (monitors boilers, water tanks, motors & other operational facilities), Smart Building BEMS (building energy management system) 
Lycamobile BE (MVNO on Base = Telenet) launches unlimited (voice, text, data with FUP of 35 GB/mo, thereafter throttling to 512 kb/s, EU roaming 19 GB/mo) prepaid, 40 EUR/mo


HARDWARE

Samsung Galaxy Unpacked: launches Galaxy Note20 & Galaxy Note20 Ultra (notebook with new S Pen, with 5G), Tab S7 & S7+ (tablets with 5G), Galaxy Watch3 (smartwatch with health features), Galaxy Buds Live (earbuds), Galaxy Z Fold2 (foldable smartphone)
Google launches Pixel 4A smartphone in US, $350 (ships from 200820); to launch Pixel 4A with 5G (from $500) & Pixel 5 with 5G autumn 2020 - Discontinues Pixel 4 & 4XL - Rumor: plans foldable smartphone (Project Passport) 21Q4
Amazon launched 2nd version of Ring Video Doorbell, $100


REGULATORY, CSR

Spectrum

  • AKOM (Slovenia) plans 5G auction (700, 1500, 2.1, 2.3, 3.6, 26) 20H2, with caps per bidder: 2x35 MHz in low bands (700, 800, 900), 190 MHz in midbands (2.3, 3.6), 1x800 in 26 GHz, 425 MHz in low/mid (700, 2100, 2300, 3600 incl current holdings in 800, 900, 1800, 2600)
  • Ofcom (UK) plans auction (simultaneous multiple round ascending, SMRA) Jan 2021
    • to add 18% to total spectrum; 80 MHz in 700 band (6 lots of 2x5, reserve price GBP 100m each; 4 lots of 1x5 for down only, reserve price GBP 1m each), 120 MHz in 3.6-3.8 band (24 lots of 1x5, reserve price GBP 20m each)
    • no coverage obligations
    • 37% cap on total spectrum, restricts MNOs to acquire max 120 MHz (BT/EE), 185 MHz (3), 190 MHz (Vodafone), unrestricted (O2)
    • combined reserve prices GBP 1.084b
    • to facilitate defragmentation of 3.6-3.8 band by allowing negotiations during assignment stage, enabling the winning of adjacent spectrum
    • Vodafone and 3 propose to cancel auction (award spectrum at reserve prices) because of cost to remove Huawei equipment
  • FCC (US) PAL (3550-3650 MHz) auction (CBRS, auction 105) reaches $2.2b after 28 rounds    
  • FCC (US) plans C-band (280 MHz in 3.7-4.0 GHz range) auction to start 201208

Telecoms

Platforms

  • Alphabet
    • YouTube: Banned 1000s of Chinese accounts (2596 in 20Q2) over coordinated influence operations on political issues
    • Alphabet: The Markup: Alphabet made certain words taboo (market, barriers to entry, network effects) when training new employees
  • Amazon:
  • Facebook
  • Twitter
    • FTC could fine $150-250m for misusing emails & phone numbers (for targeted ads), based on 2011 agreement
    • To exclude tweets from state-controlled media organisations (except those with editorial independence, such as BBC, NPR) from its recommendation systems (for search, notifications, timelines)
  • Apple: removes 27k games & apps from App Store in China to comply with Chinese law

Platforms general:


STOCK MARKET PERFORMANCE

European telecoms
  • Week 32:
    • Benchmark EuroStoxx 50: +2.5%
    • Winner TalkTalk (+10%), loser VEON (-7.7%)
  • YTD:
    • Benchmark EuroStoxx 50: -13%
    • Winner Intred (+75%), loser Intelsat (-95%)
Global media
  • Week 32:
    • Benchmark S&P 500: +2.5%
    • Winner AMC Entertainment +18%, loser Salem Media -9.0%
  • YTD
    • Benchmark S&P 500: +3.7%
    • Winner Bilibili (+123%), loser Gannett (-76%)


at 4:56 pm 0 comments
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Sunday, August 02, 2020

Week 31 in Telecoms, Internet, Media

EARNINGS
  • KPN: 20Q2
    • cumulativ cost savings since 190101 EUR 213m, maintains target YE 2021: EUR 350m
    • maintains outlook 2020, outlook 2021 uncertain; plans interim div 4.3 c./share 200804
    • plans new reporting: new Consumer rev break-down (convergence, BB-only, postpaid-only, legacy/non-SR), new KPIs (HH replacing RGUs, to add ARPA (address)), Business end-to-end adj EBITDA AL
    • mobile site modernisation targets: FTTS to 95%, backhaul 10 Gb/s, 5G-ready, 6-8 frequency bands, 4x4 MIMO (or higher), 1 antenna, 3 site configurations
  • Orange: 20Q2
  • Telefonica: 20Q2
  • Telefonica Deutschland: 20Q2
  • BT: 20/21Q1
  • Proximus: 20Q2
  • Telenet: 20Q2
  • Telekom Slovenije: 20Q2
  • Altice Europe: 20Q2
  • MasMovil: 20Q2
  • Equinix: 20Q2
  • Digital Realty: 20Q2
  • Eutelsat: 19/20Q4 
  • Google: 20Q2
  • Amazon: 20Q2
  • Facebook: 20Q2
  • Pinterest: 20Q2
  • Spotify: 20Q2
  • Vivendi: 20Q2
  • ProSieben: 20Q2
  • Omnicom: 20Q2
  • Interpublic: 20Q2


CORPORATE


NETWORKS - FIXED

Fiber
  • Telefonica: Proposes Digital Deal for Spain
    • GDP impact 1.8% per annum until 2025
    • slogan "A Digital Deal to build back better our societies and economies"
    • 100% FTTP coverage by 2025, to lead in 5G
    • 5 priorities: 1. Boosting digitalisation for a more sustainable society & economy; 2. Addressing inequalities by investing in digital skills & adapting the welfare state; 3. Building inclusive & sustainable connectivity; 4. Ensuring fair competition by modernising the fiscal, regulatory & competition frameworks; 5. Improving trust through ethical & responsible use of technology.
  • Telefonica Deutschland
  • TIM
    • Rumor: gvt IT wants single OA NBN from TIM network merger with Open Fiber, majority-owned by TIM, open for outside investors
    • Reuters: KKR offers EUR 1.8b for 38% in access network (FiberCorp), CDP (gvt; currently 10% of TIM) to also take stake, Fastweb (Swisscom; currently 20% in JV FlashFiber with TIM) 4.4%; KKR, Macquarie, Wren interested in Open Fiber
    • TIM confirms KKR offer, to discuss 200804
  • Proximus
    • Targets 4.2m FTTP premises by end 2028 (= 70% coverage)
    • partners with Delta Fiber (= EQT) for Flanders (1.5m premises) via JV
    • partners with Eurofiber (= Antin) for Wallonia (0.5m premises) via JV
  • Community Fibre
    • plans FTTP in London, target 1m premises by 2023
    • Warburg Pincus & DTCP acquire controlling stake (other: Amber Infrastructure, RPMI Railpen)
    • appoints Olaf Swantee (formerly Sunrise, EE) Exec Chair
    • Consumers max 1 Gb/s (average 920/920 Mb/s) for 50 GBP/mo, Businesses 1 Gb/s for 300 GBP/mo, max 10 Gb/s for 500 GBP/mo
  • Fore Freedom to reuse abandoned fuel ducts form Dpt of Defence
Other


NETWORKS - WIRELESS

5G
Other
  • SKT starts 2G switch-off
  • SpaceX to raise $1b at $44b valuation
  • Amazon: FCC approves Project Kuiper: 3236 satellites (at 590-630 km: LEO), 50% to be operational by 260730, 100% by 290730; >$10b; 5 phases, to activate after 578 satellites; for rural BB, 4G/5G backhaul; to use 10-14 GHz, 17-20 GHz and 27-30 GHz bands


SERVICES

Video
Telecoms
  • BT launches Halo (FMC) for small businesses: Superfast Fibre Broadband, Digital Phone Line, Unlimited 4G SIM for 43 GBP/mo
  • Shaw launches sub-brand Shaw Mobile: free unlimited voice/text for BB subs, unlimited data 45 CAD/mo (throttling after 25 GB)
  • 1&1 Drillisch partners with Deutsche Post: physical mail notification (photo) 1 day before delievry for GMX.de and Web.de subs (34m)


REGULATORY

Spectrum, other
Platforms
  • Google
  • Amazon: ILSR report on 3rd-Party Sellers business in 2019: average fee 30% (2014: 19%), net rev $60b, "Amazon’s high fees make it nearly impossible for sellers to sustain a profitable business. Most fail."; proposes regulation (non-discrimination & fair pricing) and structural separation (online marketplace, retail division, logistics operation etc into separate companies)
  • Facebook
    • Established AI Red Team to hack own AI
    • Sues EU for seeking access to too much irrelevant documents in antitrust investigation - Court suspends EU request awaiting EC ruling
    • Blocks 12 accounts of Brazil President Bolsonaro supporters, complying with Supreme Court over fake news, after being fined for only blocking in Brazil [see 200625]; to appeal as regards it a threat to freedom of speech
  • Twitter
  • Snap: Diversity report 2019: 6.8% of employees Latinx, 4.1% black
  • Apple
  • General
    • India bans 47 more Chinese apps, considers to ban 275 more
    • NTIA (= Dpt of Commerce) orders platform regulation from FCC governing liability for content
    • US Congress (House Judiciary's Antitrust subcommittee) antitrust hearing 200729 of CEOs Apple (Tim Cook; App Store), Google (Sundar Pichai; search, ads, Android), Facebook (Mark Zuckerberg; ads, acquisitions, AI use, misinformation), Amazon (Jeff Bezos; 3-rd party sellers, copy services from companies that it invests in); statements from Amazon (size benefits consumers, sellers & the economy, faces plenty of competition from Walmart, Instacart, Shopify), Apple (not dominant in any market), Facebook (more work to do in combating disinformation and voter suppression), Google (helps small businesses thrive; plenty of competition in information from Amazon, Twitter, Snapchat, WhatsApp, online advertising costs dropped 40% over 10 years) - Jeff Bezos: "social media is a nuance-destruction machine"
    • Turkey establishes Digital Platforms Commission; to guard violation of laws, personal rights, fundamental rights, freedoms, privacy
    • ACCC Draft news media and digital platforms mandatory bargaining code: orders platforms (Google, Facebook) to negotiate (in good faith) payments to media outlets for news snippets (on Google News, Search, Discover) from 210101 or risk infringement penalty (max 10% of Australian rev); with arbitration process: independent arbitrator (Australian Communications and Media Authority) to choose which of the two parties’ final offer is most reasonable (within 45 business days); platforms to give notice (28 days) of algorithm changes; platforms to provide usage data (time spent on article, number of articles read etc) - Google disappointed - Consultation August 2020, final order shortly after; code to be reviewed after 1 yr

at 4:42 pm 0 comments
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Tuesday, January 22, 2019

Telekom DE build-out plans 2019, part 2: mobile densification, 5G, FTTH, FTTO, IoT

Deutsche Telekom's Telekom DE: build-out plans for 2019 (part 2):

 Mobile
  • 2k new base stations (o/w 300 in Bavaria, 250 in BW, 250 in NRW; focus on roads & railways; o/w half in rural areas)
  • add small cells (mainly in Hamburg, Berlin, München; in public phones, lampposts, street furniture)
  • additional 5G test sites (Darmstadt 19Q1; currently Port of Hamburg)
Fixed
  • 60k km fiber (currently 500k)
  • expand FTTH (61k HH in Bautzen, 47k in Märkischer Kreis, 45k in Sachsen, 30k in Stuttgart)
  • upgrade 5m HH from <50 to="">50 Mb/s
  • connect 140 business parks to FTTO
IoT
  • expand NB-IoT (machine/sensor network) nationwide by end 2019 (currently 35k connected parking spaces, with Park & Joy app, x2 or x3 in 2019)

at 12:54 pm 0 comments
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Monday, December 31, 2018

Telekom Deutschland: to add 2 million households to FTTH per year

Telekom DE build-out 2018 and future plans
  • added 60k km fiber (total 500k)
  • added 23k street cabinets (total 177.6k), to complete FTTC YE 2020
  • total 100 business parks (45k businesses) with FTTO (100 Mb/s - 100 Gb/s)
  • added 1,300 base stations (total 27k; coverage 99.8% pops and 97.6% area; LTE coverage 97.8% pops and 97% area; single-RAN)
  • total FTTS penetration 80% of sites
  • 5G test sites in Berlin (Schöneberg & Mitte; 2 Gb/s, 3 ms latency) and Hamburg port
  • campus networks (LTE-based, with edge computing, AI) with Osram in Schwabmünchen and with RWTH Aachen University (planned)
  • 26m HH have at least 100 Mb/s
  • plans large-scale FTTH (2m HH/yr) and 5G
  • target 3k business parks with FTTO by YE 2022
"Deutsche Telekom will have largely completed its FTTC (fiber to the curb) upgrade by the end of 2020. This will be followed by the large-scale buildout of FTTH (fiber to the home), in which Deutsche Telekom will equip up to two million households with FTTH every year."

at 11:23 am 0 comments
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Thursday, February 01, 2018

KPN Q4: FTTH to migrate to PON technology after 2018

Details from the main release

  • Outlook 2018
    • Adj EBITDA flat, capex 1.1b, FCF up (excl TEF DE div), div 12 c/share; Telefonica DE stake 8.6%
  • IFRS 15
    • recognition & measurement of revenues
    • different timing of revenue recognition for handset transactions via direct & indirect channels, and a higher threshold probability in revenue related disputes
    • revenues for handsets sold via direct channels are recognized in the P&L as nonservice revenues at date of the transaction, matching the associated handset costs. Revenues (nonservice) and fees (SAC) for handsets sold via indirect channels are no longer recognized in the P&L, but reported in the balance sheet. The threshold in revenue related disputes (variable consideration) is raised, meaning that revenues are only recognized when highly probable (>75%), up from >50% under IAS 18)
    • impact (from 180101): adj rev -130m, adj EBITDA -100m, FCF unchanged, equity (at 170101) +285m
  • Q&A
    • RLAH more favorable than expected (wholesale costs, VR income, data usage grew multiple (>3x)), effect 2018 comparable (shorter yoy effect but expanded usage)
    • Expects Business Market stabilisation in 1-3 yr
    • 3.5 GHz band crucial for 5G
  • Technology update
    • Fiber reduces latency to 6 ms (DSL 14 ms, LTE 20-26 ms)
    • FTTH reaches 2.3m HH, new build FTTH only, AON in 2018, thereafter migration to PON (not for existing lines), plans access on 3rd party FTTH
    • Stepped up FTTO (after regulation ended)
    • FTTS reaches 80%
    • Bonded V Plus roll-out from 18Q2 (>400 Mb/s), cabinets suitable for VDSL & FTTH, local loop typically 150 meters
    • Hybrid DSL/LTE has 1400 subs (Nijkerk trial), average download 6 to 73 Mb/s (note: DSL is needed for IPTV & fixed IP address, LTE for peaks & streaming)
    • LTE-M nationwide by 18Q2
    • Plans 4 5G pilots: urban, rural, transport & logistics, automotive ("4G connects people, 5G connects society")
    • Plans VoWiFi
    • Network integration
      • Access
        • 1. Combine (hybrid access): FTTC/FTTH & DSL/LTE
        • 2. Massify (facilitate massive device comms)IoT over LoRa, LTE-M and 4G M2M
        • 3. Verticalise (5G for verticals): eMBB (broadband), mMTC (massive), URLLC (latency)
      • Core
        • 4. Rationalise (simplification): all-IP
        • 5. Virtualize (increase scalability, reduce time-to-market): NFV (generic cloud hardware, faster time-to-market) & SDN (smart routing)
        • 6. Decentralise (content closer to consumer): CDN at 161 metro locations (for content caching, core-network offloading, improves experience), edge computing (for 5G, improves latency for automotive, e-health, smart industry)
    • Simplification: phase 3 of simplification will follow (savings 1 & 2 relative to 2016: 570m EUR/yr)
    • IT simplification: originally for 80k subs, invisible for customers, focus on a single My KPN app, focus on open source, added 150 developers in 2017 (total 30 nationalities), time-to-market (halved to 7 days) to be halved again

at 11:04 am 0 comments
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Monday, September 11, 2017

Vodafone DE's Gigabit Investment Plan

Vodafone DE launches Gigabit-Offensive, or Gigabit Investment Plan: EUR 1.8-2.2b in 4 yr (18/19 - 21/22), for 1/3 of all HH: 13.7m connections.

 3 pillars
  • GigaKabel (Cable): 12.6m HH; EUR 200m (excl CPE); accelerates Docsis 3.1 deployment from 4 to 2 yr; target 0.5-1.0 Gb/s.
  • GigaGemeinde (Municipality): rural, 1m HH = 2m pops, FTTH; EUR 200-400m; requires 33% participation; muni to own passive and apply for subsidies; Vodafone active operator (incl CPE).
  • GigaGewerbe (Business): 100k FTTO in 2k parks; EUR 1.4-1.6b; with partners incl. Deutsche Glasfaser for passive; long-term full ownership of passive; requires 40% participation.
Targets
  • IRR minimum 20%
  • Pay-back: max 4 yr (FTTO), 6 yr (rural FTTH)
  • Contribution to SR growth: 1-2 pp from mid-term (FY 19/20)
  • EBITDA-margin above-average/materially higher (currently 34.1%)
  • CF impact limited due to coop approach (17/18 limited, then 100-200m EUR/yr)
  • Group capex/rev unchanged (mid-teens mid-term) excl Gigabit Investment Plan (disclosed separately)
Observations
  • Limited FTTH.
  • Smart way of reaping subsidies and sharing cost with partners.
  • Focus on (ultimately) vertically integrated model. Not a word about open access.
  • Attractive financials.
  • Deutsche Glasfaser takeover target eventually (others not clear).
  • Cost per connection/household
    • Docsis 3.1: EUR 15.87 (excl CPE)
    • Rural FTTH: EUR 300 ad mid-point for part of the investment
    • FTTO: EUR 15,000

at 12:51 pm 0 comments
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Friday, March 12, 2010

And now for a word from our sponsor

FTTH is sooooo 2009, so we decided to do FTTO. You can order it here.

FTTO is three things: local access (not long-haul) fiber (not DSL or HFC) to business locations (not homes). We did 12 interviews, covering ~90% of the market. Top-down estimates in volume terms, topics surrounding FTTO and drivers & inhibitors.

at 10:26 am 0 comments
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