Showing posts with label Microsoft. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Microsoft. Show all posts

Monday, September 14, 2020

Week 37 in Telecoms, Internet, Media

Corporate

M&A

  • Proximus: Considers sale of Be-Mobile (develops apps for parking, toll, mobility; 92.7%, Jan Cools 7.3%; rev >EUR 40m)
  • Vodafone: Rumor: STC to reduce price (originally $2.39b) for Vodafone Eypt stake (55%)
  • Altice Europe: Agrees on Next Private (Patrick Drahi) offer of 4.11 EUR/share (A & B) cash (cum dividend) = EUR 2.5b for minority shareholders (premium 24% over 200910, 17% over 180 days); equity valuation EUR 4.9b; minimum acceptance level 95% (may be waived down); followed by statutory squeeze-out; to close and delist 21Q1
  • MasMovil: Indumenta Pueri accepts offer from Lorca    
  • GTT: Bloomberg: to sell European fiber networks (Apollo, formerly Interoute, Hibernia), candidates Macquarie, AustralianSuper, 3i; $2b
  • Liberty Global: Fitch assigns BB-/Stable to Virgin Media O2 UK
  • EQT

Earnings


5G

Launches

  • Orange ES launches NSA 5G (in 3.6 GHz band) in Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia, Seville, Malaga; with Ericsson (Core & RAN in Madrid & Barcelona)
  • Yoigo (MasMovil) launches NSA 5G (80 MHz in 3.5 GHz band) in 15 cities: Alicante, Alcobendas, Almeria, Avila, Barcelona, Hospitalet de Llobregat, Huesca, Jaen, Madrid, Malaga, Melilla, Orense, Salamanca, Seville, Valencia
  • TDC launches 5G (3.5 GHz) in Copenhagen, Odense, Aarhus, Helsingor at 3k sites, with Ericsson; target 90% coverage YE 2020
  • Vodafone CZ plans 5G launch 201001 in 5 cities, with DSS
  • Telenor SE plans 5G launch Oct 2020; target nationwide coverage (99% of pops, 90% of geo) by 2023    

Expansions

  • DNA 5G reaches >1m pops in 24 munis (Espoo, Heinola, Helsinki, Hyvinkää, Hämeenlinna, Jyväskylä, Kuopio, Lahti, Lieto, Nokia, Oulu, Pirkkala, Pori, Raahe, Raisio, Rauma, Rusko, Seinäjoki, Sipoo, Tampere, Turku, Vaasa, Vantaa, Ylöjärvi); target 1.5m pops YE 2020; plans expansion to Järvenpää, Kaarina, Kangasala, Kauniainen, Kerava, Naantali, Nurmijärvi, Hyrylä in Tuusula
  • O2 UK extends 5G coverage to Tyne and Wear cy, Surrey cy, Lincoln

Services

  • Elisa plans 5G-based drone trial in Helsinki, with Vertical Hobby, Helsinki Rescue Department, Stara, Forum Virium Helsinki
  • BBC, Al Jazeera Media Network, BT Sport, EBU, ITV, Olympic Broadcasting Service, SVT, TV2, ViacomCBS Networks Int, YLE to demo broadcast production over 5G in Amsterdam 200910, over Vodafone NL & EE (BT) 5G; tech partners: Aviwest, LiveU, Sony, Huawei, Mobile Viewpoint, NewTek, Univ of Strathclyde
  • Telekom DE (DT) launches MagentaMobil, prepaid, 97 EUR/yr; unlimited on-net voice/text in DE, 200 min/mo to DE numbers, 2 GB/mo, access to 5G
  • Optus adds 2 5G tiers: 5G Internet Entertainer Plan (90 AUD/mo; no throttling, average spead 214 Mb/s; incl Optus Sport & Fetch Mighty box) & 5G Internet Everyday Plan (75 AUD/mo, max 100 Mb/s; unlimited data, Optus Sports)

Hardware


Content

Video

Gaming


Regulatory

Platforms individually

  • Facebook: WSJ: EU's DPC (Ireland) orders Facebook to suspend data transfer of EU users to US (Privacy Shleld invalidated 200716)
  • Twitter: Expands policies against election-related misinformation (add fact-check labels or hide tweets that contain false or misleading information that causes confusion about election rules or with unverified information about election rigging)
  • Apple: Updates App Store Guidelines (2.5.16): content in App Clips, widgets, extensions, notifications must be related to main app; game streaming allowed (each individual game to be submitted individually to Apple’s App Review; subscribe through in-app purchases within the service’s catalog app); free standalone apps allowed (without in-app purchases and no calls to action for purchasing elsewhere)

Platforms general


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Sunday, August 30, 2020

Week 35 in Telecoms, Internet, Media

FTTH

  • Vodafone: Vodafone UK expands Gigafast Broadband coverage by 360k premises in 3 cities (Birmingham, Bristol, Liverpool) on BT Openreach
  • Liberty Global: UPC PL partners with Operacyjnego Polska Cyfrowa (Digital Poland, led by Fiberhost (= INEA)), extends reach to Wielkopolska, Lublin, Lower Silesia; max 1 Gb/s (80 PLZ/mo)
  • Comcast: Sky Italia expands BB reach to 149 cities, on Open Fiber
  • Sunrise: Salt may sue over UPC Schweiz merger: infringes contractual rights established as part of Swiss Open Fibre joint venture [see 200519] - Sale of majority stake in Swiss Open Fiber on hold due to planned Sunrise/UPC CH merger


5G


M&A

  • Liberty Global: Publishes offer prospectus for Sunrise offer; tender to launch 200911 until 201008 followed by 10 trading days acceptance period (201015-201028)
  • Eurofiber: Reuters (resurfaced): Antin to sell minority stake (or majority if demand high enough), valuation EUR 2b (~20x 2019 EBITDA of EUR 109m), Allianz, Ardian, Macquarie, First State Investments, APG, PGGM interested    
  • MasMovil: Polygon Global Partners (1.02%) to vote against, claims offer (22.50 EUR/share) undervalues by 7-8 EUR/share    
  • Telefonica: ElevenPaths (= Telefonica Tech) acquires Govertis (cybersecurity)
  • TIM: Tiscali to participate in FiberCop
  • Intelsat: Rumor: to acquire the commercial aviation portion of in-flight connectivity specialist Gogo, $500m
  • RealNetworks sells Rhapsody (Napster) to MelodyVR, $26m + $44m in content obligations
  • Bytedance

    • TikTok sues US gvt over Exec Order from 200806 (banning business with Bytedance) suspending the company’s right to due process (under Fifth Amendment), no evidence to support accusations national-security risk - General Atlantic and Sequioa Capital support bid from Oracle - Voting rights groups (Rock the Vote, Voto Latino, Common Cause, Free Press, Maplight) also sue
    • TikTok has 100m MAU, 50m DAU in US
    • WSJ: approached Netflix to buy TikTok US, Netflix declined
    • TikTok CEO Kevin Mayer exits, Vanessa Pappas interim CEO
    • Walmart joins Microsoft in bid for TikTok US/Canada/Australia/NZ, rumored value $20-30b; rumor: originally Walmart partnered with Alphabet & SoftBank
    • Rumor: Oracle to offer $20b (50/50 in cash & stock), profit sharing with TikTok/Bytedance (50/50)
    • Bloomberg: Triller and Centricus to bid $20b for TikTok US/Australia/NZ/India in ccash, stock & shared profits; Triller confirms offer, Bytedance denies, Centricus no comment


EARNINGS


VIDEO/TV

  • Comcast
    • Rumor: to sell X1 platform wholesale to smart TV manufacturers, based on Metrological tech
    • Sky DE distr deal for Sky Ticket (free OTT service; sports, films, series, docus, kids) with Sony for Bravia Android TVs
  • Liberty Global launches 4K Mini TV Box (environmental friendly: 35% recycled plastic, 77% reduced energy consumption), powered by Horizon 4 tech, first All-IP device, first for UPC PL; designed by Liberty, manufactured by Commscope
  • Vectra (MSO, PL) launches IP-based STB (Android TV based, Google certified)
  • Apple: Bloomberg: to add AR content to Apple TV+ 2021, plans 2 AR devices (headset 2022, glasses 2023)
  • Philo: Distr deal with Google Fiber: >60 channels for 20 $/mo (joins YouTube TV and fuboTV)
  • Walt Disney: Distr deal for Disney+ Hotstar with Telkomsel from 200905; 39k IDR/mo or 200k IDR/yr
  • WarnerMedia (AT&T): Crunchyroll Adds tiers (Free, Fan, Mega Fan, Ultimate Fan) and features (downloads for offline)
  • Google: Google Discover tests Short Videos [a la TikTok]


OTHER

  • MUSIC
    • Spotify
    • Tidal: Acquires tokens (SENSO Tokens: in-world currency of Sensorium Galaxy: VR social metaspace in which users can attend alternate-world concerts, nightclubs, festivals; public launch planned early 2021) from Sensorium Corp, $7m
  • TEXT/PRINT: Amazon: Audible launches Audible Plus, 8 $/mo for unlimited access (68k hr from 11k items (originals, audiobooks, podcasts))
  • GAMING: DT: Launches MagentaGaming, 7 EUR/mo: cloud gaming platform, 100 games at launch, no downloads
  • INSURANCE:
  • E-HEALTH: Amazon: Launches
    • Amazon Halo: service to improve health & wellness (AI-powered health features, Amazon Halo app; focus on Activity, Sleep, Body (3D model based om smartphone camera picture, calculates body fat), Tone (voice analysis te determine mood), Labs; Halo profile separate from Amazon account), 4 $/mo
    • Amazon Halo Band (accelerometer, temperature sensor, heart rate monitor, 2 microphones, LED indicator, button to turn the microphones on or off; no display; communicates with smartphone over Bluetooth) in US, $100 (separate band $16 or $20); promo: $65 incl 6 mo service, auto-renews at 4 $/mo + tax on early access basis; partnerships with WW, John Hancock Vitality, Cerner, Mayo Clinic, Exhale, Aaptiv, Lifesum, Headspace etc


    REGULATORY

    • Spectrum
    • Platforms
      • Google
        • YouTube Increased removals in 20Q2
        • Bloomberg: US DoJ antitrust ivestigation focuses on bundling services (Google Network, Google Search, Google Ads) in such a way to block out competition (tying); making the sale of one product conditional on purchasing another isn't illegal per se - but it can be when combined with market power
      • Amazon: CALS by All India Online Vendors Assocition (>2000 sellers in India) over unfair business practices (Amazon discounts drive indie vendors out of business; Amazon buys wholesale, sells at a loss to 3rd-party sellers)
      • Apple
        • Facebook prepares advertisers for Apple iOS 14 (brings changes to Identifier for Advertisers (IDFA) user tracking feature: becomes opt-in): will disproportionately affect Facebook's Audience Network of publishers (could reduce rev 50%); expects less impact on its own advertising revenue than on the ad-supported businesses that rely on its audience network to promote their apps; may shift demand toward Facebook’s own targeting system    
        • Microsoft supports Epic Games; Epic files response to Apple threatening to cut developers off
      • Facebook: Sues MobiBurn (UK, ad tools for developers) over malicious code that illegally collected personal data of Facebook users


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    Sunday, August 09, 2020

    Week 32 in Telecoms, Internet, Media

    CORPORATE

    Earnings
    • VodafoneZiggo: 20Q2 prelim (final: Aug 2020)
      • stopped using OCF, replaced by Adj EBITDA
      • 95% of targeted cost synergies (210m) realised, on track to deliver 1 yr early
      • spectrum costs (EUR 416m) to be paid 50/50 in 2020 & 2021, to be funded by new shareholder loans
      • maintains guidance 2020 (despite expected economic slowdown): adj EBITDA stable to modest growth, TSR 400-500m
    • Liberty Global 20Q2
    • TIM: 20Q2
    • Intred: 20Q2
    • Magyar Telekom: 20Q2
    • CK Hutchison/3 Group Europe: 20Q2
    • Rostelecom: 20Q2
    • SES: 20Q2
    • Intelsat: 20Q2
    • Viasat: 20/21Q1
    • Warner Music: 20Q2
    • Sony: 20/21Q1
    • Walt Disney: 19/20Q3
    • ViacomCBS: 20Q2
      • Pluto reached 26.5m MAU in US (target 30m YE 2020), global 33m MAU
      • CBS All Access & Showtime 16.2m subs in US
    • Discovery: 20Q2
    • AMC Networks: 20Q2
    • AMC Entertainment: 20Q2
    • Fox Corp: 20/21Q4     
    • ITV: 20Q2 
    • Activision Blizzard: 20Q2
    • Nielsen: 20Q2
      • to spin off Global Connect unit 21Q1

    M&A

    Funding
    Expansion
    • Amazon
    • UGC
      • Facebook: Instagram launches Reels in >50 countries [see 20070716]: create 15-sec edited videos
      • Snap: Snapchat launches feature to add music to Snaps (trial in Australia & NZ) [a la TikTok], licensing deals with Warner Music, Warner Chappell, Universal Music Publishing, NMPA, Merlin


    NETWORKS

    Fixed

    5G

    4G


    CONTENT

    Video

    • SKO (NL): living room TV set usage down for live linear TV, up double digit for delayed and VOD viewing
    • US District Judge approves DoJ termination of Paramount Consent Decrees (barred studios from owning movie theaters (applied to Warner Bros, 20th Century Fox, Paramount)
    • Walt Disney
      • Disney+ reaches 60.5m subs; Mulan to premiere on Disney+ 200904 for $30 (one-off TVOD offering); Disney+ to expand to Indonesia 200905
      • plans new int OTT service Star 2021 [instead of expanding Hulu internationally], content from content from ABC, FX, Freeform, Searchlight, 20th Century Studios, no licensed content, focus on adults
      • Disney+, Hulu (35.5m) & ESPN+ (8.5m) have combined >100m subs
      • Hulu adds annual subscription tier, 60 $/yr (first for existing subs)
    • ViacomCBS
      • No plans to bundle CBS All Access, Showtime, BET+. Noggin as single service in US
      • Plans global SVOD service early 2021 in Australia, Nordics, Latam, with originals from Showtime, CBS All Access, content from CBS, MTV, Comedy Central, Nickelodeon, some first-run moviers from Paramount; to continue from existing services in some countries: Australia (CBS All Access), Nordics, E-Europe, Latam (Paramount+)
    • Discovery plans streaming service (as companion to services such as Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, Disney+)
    • Eleven Sports rebrands to Eleven; strategy update (2.0): to expand in Europe from 2021, adds 3 vertical: Elevenwomen, Elevennext (local), Eleven Esports
    • Quibi launches free+ads AVOD tier in Australia/NZ, reduces SVOD tier from 13 to 7 AUD/mo

    Music

    Gaming

    • Microsoft: to launch xCloud (streaming) 200915 for Android (ended iOS test) in 22 countries (AT, BE, Canada, CZ, DK, FI, FR, DE, HU, IE, IT, NL, NO, PL, PT, Slovakia, ES, SK, SE, CH, UK, US) with >100 games, as part of Xbox Game Pass Ultimate (15 $/mo); with Xbox & 3rd-party controllers (Sony, Razer, PowerA, 8BitDo); distr deal in SK with SKT

    SERVICES

    Telekom DE expands MagentaEINS-Beta-Tarif (service ends 210930) to 2000 more subs, 20 EUR/mo in 12 mo contract: fixed (VDSL max 50 Mb/s + mobile (LTE; unlimited in DE for voice, text, data; 15 GB EU data) 
    KT launches smart building services, with KT Estate: Smart Building Sensing (monitors boilers, water tanks, motors & other operational facilities), Smart Building BEMS (building energy management system) 
    Lycamobile BE (MVNO on Base = Telenet) launches unlimited (voice, text, data with FUP of 35 GB/mo, thereafter throttling to 512 kb/s, EU roaming 19 GB/mo) prepaid, 40 EUR/mo


    HARDWARE

    Samsung Galaxy Unpacked: launches Galaxy Note20 & Galaxy Note20 Ultra (notebook with new S Pen, with 5G), Tab S7 & S7+ (tablets with 5G), Galaxy Watch3 (smartwatch with health features), Galaxy Buds Live (earbuds), Galaxy Z Fold2 (foldable smartphone)
    Google launches Pixel 4A smartphone in US, $350 (ships from 200820); to launch Pixel 4A with 5G (from $500) & Pixel 5 with 5G autumn 2020 - Discontinues Pixel 4 & 4XL - Rumor: plans foldable smartphone (Project Passport) 21Q4
    Amazon launched 2nd version of Ring Video Doorbell, $100


    REGULATORY, CSR

    Spectrum

    • AKOM (Slovenia) plans 5G auction (700, 1500, 2.1, 2.3, 3.6, 26) 20H2, with caps per bidder: 2x35 MHz in low bands (700, 800, 900), 190 MHz in midbands (2.3, 3.6), 1x800 in 26 GHz, 425 MHz in low/mid (700, 2100, 2300, 3600 incl current holdings in 800, 900, 1800, 2600)
    • Ofcom (UK) plans auction (simultaneous multiple round ascending, SMRA) Jan 2021
      • to add 18% to total spectrum; 80 MHz in 700 band (6 lots of 2x5, reserve price GBP 100m each; 4 lots of 1x5 for down only, reserve price GBP 1m each), 120 MHz in 3.6-3.8 band (24 lots of 1x5, reserve price GBP 20m each)
      • no coverage obligations
      • 37% cap on total spectrum, restricts MNOs to acquire max 120 MHz (BT/EE), 185 MHz (3), 190 MHz (Vodafone), unrestricted (O2)
      • combined reserve prices GBP 1.084b
      • to facilitate defragmentation of 3.6-3.8 band by allowing negotiations during assignment stage, enabling the winning of adjacent spectrum
      • Vodafone and 3 propose to cancel auction (award spectrum at reserve prices) because of cost to remove Huawei equipment
    • FCC (US) PAL (3550-3650 MHz) auction (CBRS, auction 105) reaches $2.2b after 28 rounds    
    • FCC (US) plans C-band (280 MHz in 3.7-4.0 GHz range) auction to start 201208

    Telecoms

    Platforms

    • Alphabet
      • YouTube: Banned 1000s of Chinese accounts (2596 in 20Q2) over coordinated influence operations on political issues
      • Alphabet: The Markup: Alphabet made certain words taboo (market, barriers to entry, network effects) when training new employees
    • Amazon:
    • Facebook
    • Twitter
      • FTC could fine $150-250m for misusing emails & phone numbers (for targeted ads), based on 2011 agreement
      • To exclude tweets from state-controlled media organisations (except those with editorial independence, such as BBC, NPR) from its recommendation systems (for search, notifications, timelines)
    • Apple: removes 27k games & apps from App Store in China to comply with Chinese law

    Platforms general:


    STOCK MARKET PERFORMANCE

    European telecoms
    • Week 32:
      • Benchmark EuroStoxx 50: +2.5%
      • Winner TalkTalk (+10%), loser VEON (-7.7%)
    • YTD:
      • Benchmark EuroStoxx 50: -13%
      • Winner Intred (+75%), loser Intelsat (-95%)
    Global media
    • Week 32:
      • Benchmark S&P 500: +2.5%
      • Winner AMC Entertainment +18%, loser Salem Media -9.0%
    • YTD
      • Benchmark S&P 500: +3.7%
      • Winner Bilibili (+123%), loser Gannett (-76%)


    at 4:56 pm 0 comments
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    Wednesday, June 08, 2011

    Consumer clouds and lockers: implications for operators

    What is cloud computing?
    • Internet-based computing, remote computing
    • Often subscription-based or free
    • On demand
    • Managed by third-party
    • Optional: automatic updates/back-ups, synchronisation across devices
    OTT players (B2C):
    • Apple: iCloud, iTunes, iPhone, iPod, iPad.
    • Google: Android, Chrome, Chrome OS, Chromebook, Google Music, Gmail, Google Docs, Google Apps, YouTube, Picasa, Google Fiber, cloud connect for Microsoft Office.
    • Microsoft: Office 365, Lync, SkyDrive, Azure.
    • Amazon: Cloud Drive, Cloud Player, Kindle, Amazon Web Services.
    • Yahoo!: Yahoo! Mail, Flickr.
    Services (B2C):
    • Any file: Amazon Cloud Drive, Box.net
    • Music: Spotify, Google Music (beta), Apple iCloud
    • Photos: Flickr
    • Video: Netflix, YouTube, Uitzendinggemist, BBC iPlayer, UltraViolet
    • Presentations: SlideShare, SlideRocket
    • Social networking: Facebook, LinkedIn, Hyves
    • OS (turn iPad or Chromebook into fully-fledged computer): Chrome OS
    • Office: Microsoft Office 365, Google Docs/Apps, Zoho
    • Individual file storage (for sharing): RapidShare, MegaUpload, zShare
    • Back-up, remote access: Dropbox, Mozy, Carbonite
    Telco acquisitions (B2B), bringing data centers and services to the table:
    • NTT Com: Dimension Data, Frontline Systems
    • Verizon: Terremark
    • CenturyLink: Savvis
    • Windstream: Hosted Solutions
    • TDS: Visi
    • Cincinatti Bell: CyrusOne
    • Time Warner Cable: NaviSite
    • Telefonica: Acens Technologies
    Operator initiatives (B2B):
    • Netflix is a big AWS (Amazon) customer for its Watch Instantly streaming service.
    • KPN launches SME Workspace: software and services from KPN CyberCenters at 40 EUR/employee/month (May 31 2011).
    • Telstra to invest AUD 800m over 5 years; 1 new datacenter, modernising existing, building new apps and a management portal (June 16 2011).
    Developer platforms (B2B):
    • Salesforce.com: Force.com
    • VMware: Cloud Foundry
    • Microsoft: Azure
    • Amazon: BeanStalk
    • Google: App Engine
    Computer vs. cloud:
    • As the computer/files/hard disks are cut out of the ecosystem and the cloud replaces them: a. connectivity becomes more important, and b. the computer ecosystem (Microsoft, Intel) stands to lose.
    Infrastructure and connectivity:
    • Syncing/back-ups/updates will be done over WiFi, so wireless will not be burdened (for now). WiFi becomes even more important. Ultimately, WiFi implies fiber.
    • Other network elements (CDN's, data centers, servers) may also become more important. However, Apple (and Google) are using their own private networks.
    • Operators have control over the last mile, but Apple (and Google) may control all the other network elements. Next battlegrounds: WiFi, FTTH (as in Google Fiber).
    • Amazon Web Services provides cloud services to smaller players.
    • Hosting, co-location, housing.
    Data:
    • Enormous lock-in for Apple (and Google) will work in their favour. They control the subscriber's data. Will operators have an answer and provide these services: put all your data in our cloud, with automatic back-up and syncing?
    • Apple's system is closed: plays on iOS devices only.
    • Apple and Google are going OTT, while operators have their own managed and secure infrastructure.
    • Is email (Hotmail, Yahoo! Mail, Gmail) the basis of developing a cloud strategy?
    Other players:
    • Do cloud-based players such as Facebook, Dropbox, Zoho, Flickr, SlideRocket, Netflix, Evernote have a future?
    • Ericsson is in a way the biggest operator in the world, through its managed services. They can be a partner for telcos, which can then focus on sales & marketing.
    • Is UltraViolet still relevant? It's open, runs anywhere.
    General:
    • Cloud negatives: security (privacy), reliability (access), latency. Also: digital media fragmentation across multiple clouds and devices.
    • Cloud positives: better functionality and flexibility, faster and automatic updates (everything as a service), cost savings (lower capex/opex), shift from capex (hardware) to opex (subscription).
    Benefits for consumers:
    • Lower cost (SaaS, Slim PC)
    • Buy once, play anywhere (streaming)
    • Sync across devices
    • Share among family members
    What is the future role of a telco?
    • Infrastructure? Last mile (fixed and wireless) is too expensive to replicate
    • Cloud computing? Local and managed datacenters offer better security.
    • Services, sales & marketing? OTT players are building direct-to-consumer relationships, with credit card billing.
    • Telcos are squeezed: competition, regulation, device manufacturers, OTT players.
    Apple iCloud limitations:
    • iOS devices only.
    • No TV/video.
    • WiFi only.
    • Video calls (FaceTime) limited to on-net over WiFi.

    at 9:22 am 0 comments
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    Sunday, February 03, 2008

    Microsoft to MSN/Live: "You suck"

    To the plethora of comments on the Microsoft bid for Yahoo! I wish to add just a few shorts.

    The reasoning can largely be categorised in 3 groups: 1. Attack: together we are stronger; 2. Defend: against Google, MySpace, Facebook et al; 3. Synergies: from better management and reduced costs.

    I think people should not loose these things out of sight:
    1. Typically, large corporations destroy a lot of value doing deals like these (cf. HP/Compaq, which was all about Dell).
    2. Market shares cannot simply be added together. Advertisers want to shop around, as do consumers. Therefore, to say that a 10% and a 15% share add up to 25% is shortsighted. It will be more like 20%. (And so: the little guys in particular may benefit!)
    3. What is the message from Ballmer to the MSN/Live employees? Quite simply: "you suck". And should Yang sell out, his message is loud and clear too: "you totally suck". I wonder what that will do to the motivation of these people, their willingness to cooperate and their eagerness to innovate. It wil be virtually impossible to get everyone to work together, from California and/or Washington. There will be ugly fights over whose video platform, whose shopping site, whose brandname, etc etc will dominate and 'win'.

    at 9:14 pm 0 comments
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    Thursday, June 21, 2007

    Turmoil in Yahoo!/Semel aftermath keeps eBay merger option alive

    I believe all the turmoil around Yahoo!, after CEO Terry Semel quit, fortifies the case for a merger with eBay, which I defended before.
    Keep in mind that Google is the perennial enemy to both. Microsoft on the other hand is carefully treated as an equally beleaguered colleague, rather than as a competitor.

    The recent animosities by no means endanger a Yahoo!/eBay merger:
    • Google was ready to invade eBay's Live event, which made eBay pull away from AdWords. Instead, eBay could be a bigger Yahoo! partner.
    • Google attacked Microsoft over Vista's desktop search. The case was settled.
    Nor do the recent advances, quite to the contrary:
    • Yahoo!'s problems keep any merger speculation alive, particularly with Microsoft.
    • Now the Times of London reports that News Corp floated the idea of swapping MySpace for a 30% Yahoo! stake. I believe the implied MySpace valuation must be too high for Yahoo!, which proved quite frugal when approaching Facebook. Also, I believe that Yahoo! needs to be a 'content neutral' aggregator, not a News Corp vehicle.
    • However, the eBay/MySpace talks are still ongoing.
    • Yahoo! has not responded to Ron Burkle's try to involve Yahoo! in a counter offer for Dow Jones, News Corp's much desired prey.

    In other words, I think Yahoo! is carefully aiming for eBay. At the same time, News Corp must be kept at an arm's length.


    at 12:08 pm 0 comments
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