Sunday, November 29, 2020

Week 48 in Telecoms, Internet, Media

Corporate

  • KPN: Strategy update: Accelerate to Grow
    • FTTH roll-out accelerates to 500k HP from 2021
    • expands current savings program to EUR 375-400m, new program EUR 250m for 2021-2023
    • capex 2021-2023 raised to EUR 3.5b o/w 1.4b for FTTH
    • FTTH penetration to 50% by 2023, 65% by 2025 (double from current penetration), longer term 80%
    • outlook 2020: adj EBITDA AL 2.32b, capex 1.1b, FCF 750m, div 13c
    • outlook 2021: adj EBITDA AL up, capex 1.2b, FCF 750m , div growth 3-5%
    • outlook 2023: adj EBITDA AL >2.45b, capex 1.1-1.2b, FCF >870m, div growth 3-5%
    • SR from mass market (Consumer, SME, Wholesale; 75% of rev, 90% of EBITDA) return to growth end 2021; LCE market lags SME by 1-2 yr
    • to improve MijnKPN app for Consumer and service modules for SME
    • aggregator for entertainment for Consumer, one-stop shop for SME with 3rd-party services for security, cloud, workspace
    • savings induced by corona virus (increased working from home, less office space)
    • cash tax: EUR 50-60m in 2021 (from  fiscal unity and loss compensation rules), then 150m EUR/yr (reduced loss compensation but tax losses will be available indefinitely)
    • target leverage ratio <2.5; to digitalise customer journey
  • Orange: Denies rumor of planning offer for ATOS
  • Vodafone: Rumor: Vodafone ES plans merger with MasMovil, Vodafone to own 60-80%
  • Altice Europe
    • Next launches offer, plans EGM 210107, offer period 201125-210121: 4.11 EUR/share cash
    • EC approves acquisition of Covage by SFR FTTH (Altice Europe 49.99%, Piaf BidCo (OMERS, Allianz, AXA Infrastructure Equity 1 AFS SAS, IST3 Investor Foundation; controlled by OMERS & Allianz) 50.01%) [see 191125], with conditions over reduced wholesale & retail competitions: to sell 95% of Covage's wholesale FTTO business (30 institutions)

  • Liberty Global: Acquires Phoenix Works (Leeds; EV charging, solar, battery storage)
  • Telenet: Interested in VOO
  • DPG Media puts Mobile Vikings (Full MVNO on Orange BE) & JIM Mobile up for sale; 300k active subs (334k subs icl JIM Mobile) 
  • Telesat: Plans merger with major shareholder Loral Space & Communications to form Telesat Corp (listed), focus on LEO (298 sats); plans IPO mid 2021
  • ViacomCBS: Sells Simon & Schuster to Penguim Random House (= Bertelsmann), $2.17b cash   
  • Google: Rumor: plans to acquire ShareChat (India), $1b [a la TikTok]
  • Bytedance: CFIUS delays deadline for finding TikTok US buyer to 201204
  • Slack: Rumor: Salesforce plans offer
  • Square: Acquires Credit Karma Tax (free do-it-yourself tax-filing service), $50m
  • Stripe: Bloomberg: to raise funds at $70-100b valuation

Networks

  • Fixed
    • TIM: EC approves FiberCop (access network) spin-off and stake sale to KKR (37.5%), Fastweb receives 4.5% from contributing stake in JV Flash Fiber - To share fiber with Intred, 5 yr
    • Proximus: Plans JV with EQT Infrastructure V [replacing Delta Fiber], to close 21Q1, to connect 1.5m premises in Flanders to open FTTP; to be owned 49.9% by Proximus, EQT 50.1%; target 4.2m premises (= 70%) in BE by 2028 remains; interim target 2025 raised 30%; plans update mid Jan 2021
    • UK reduces fiber ambition from 100 to minimum 85% by 2025, budget remains GBP 5b 
    • Vodafone DE plans FTTP to 150k homes & 23k businesses
    • KPN plans quantum network in Randstad, with QuTech (= TU Delft, TNO), SURF, OPNT [all members of TKI = Topconsortium voor Kennis en Innovatie]
  • 5G
    • ZTE report: on 5G Uplink Enhancement Technology 
    • Launches
      • A1 Bulgaria launches 5G in Sofia 
      • Orange LU launches 5G in Luxembourg City, no price premium; with Nokia 
      • Togocel (= TogoCom) launches 5G in Lome (Togo) 
      • Orange FR plans 5G (3.5 GHz supplemented by 2.1 GHz) launch 201203 in 15 munis, target 160 munis YE 2020 
    • SKT completes 5G core (cloud native) based on Release 16, with Samsung 
    • BNA (DE): Private 5G (3.7 GHz) submissions 93, granted 88 
    • MTS (Russia) plans Private 5G at Polimetall (gold mining), with Ericsson 
    • Sunrise plans 5G Smart Stadium at FC Basel (incl Sunrise CamCheck: replay from 4 different camera positions) 
    • ITU completes evaluation of 3 technologies for IMT-2020 (5G): 3GPP 5G-SRIT (submitted by 3GPP), 3GPP 5G-RIT (submitted by 3GPP), 5Gi (submitted by Telecommunications Standards Development Society India (TSDSI)) 
    • KPN launches #6 5G FieldLab: for healthcare applications 
    • Citycom Telecommunication Graz (= Holding Graz) orders 5G network for Graz & Steiermark from Nokia, focus on IoT, to offer Private networks; to launch 21Q1 with 50 macro sites (target 200) 
    • Telenor NO launches FWA over 5G service (max 100 Mb/s, 1000 NOK/mo; 10 Mb/s for 600 NOK/mo), data cap 2 TB/mo (at overage throttling to 5 Mb/s) 
    • Telefonica DE trials live sports broadcast over 5G, with Sky DE 201206 at handball match, footage from 12 smartphones 
    • UK may ban Huawei from 5G earlier than expected (2022) - Huawei to be banned from Sep 2021 
    • Russian State Commission on Radio Frequencies decides 5G will use exclusively domestic equipment 

Services

  • Video
    • Netflix: To expand ABQ Studios (New Mexico), to spend $1b on production`- UK production spend 2020 rises to GBP 750m
    • ProSieben: Distr deal for ProSieben Fun, Sat.1 Emotions, Kabel Eins Classics with Amazon Prime Channels, 4 EUR/mo each or bundle (Seven Entertainment package) 6 EUR/mo
  • Web services
    • Facebook: FT: to launch Libra currency Jan 2021, backed by USD, dependent on approval from Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority
    • Snap: Launches Spotlight feature (tab): short-form video (curated, creators receive $1m per day) [a la TikTok]
  • Smart city
    • Glasgow interim report on 2018 smart city plan of 73 actions over 5 yr: 12 complete, 43 in development, 11 to begin; joins MetroLab Network for smart city innovation; reaches 3500 intelligent streetlights, 3600 WiFi hotspots in schools

Regulatory

  • RU (Slovakia) ends multiband auction (700, 900, 1800), raises EUR 100m; Orange, O2, Slovak Telekom 2x10 each in 700 band; O2 2x4.2 MHz in 900 band; O2, Slovak Telekom, Swan Mobile 2x3 MHz each in 1800 band
  • EU approves 6 GHz band for WiFi (480 MHz)
  • Google: US State AGs (Texas, Colorado, Iowa, Nebraska, New York, North Carolina, Tennessee, Utah) plan antitrust lawsuit Dec 2020


Sunday, November 22, 2020

Netflix: all the originals and licensing announcements of Week 47

Movies
Series
Non-fiction
Other
  • First-look deal with Shawn Levy (21 Laps Entertainment)
  • Content deal with SF Studios (Nordics) after theater and buy-rent windows


Week 47 in Telecoms, Internet, Media

Corporate

Networks

  • General: Ookla Speedtest Global Index (Oct 20): global average FBB 88/47 Mb/s, MBB 39/12 Mb/s; FBB: Sing #1 (229 Mb/s), HK #2 (215), Romania #3 (189), Switzerland #4 (186), Thailand #5 (184), NL #26 (126); MBB: SK #1 (145), UAE #2 (130), China #3 (124), Qatar #4 (108), Qatar #4 (88), Australia #5 (88), NL #6 (88) 
  • FTTH: Nokia launches 25/25 PON solution (25G PON), based on Nokia Quillion chipset
  • 5G
    • Huawei proposes 5.5G (for XR: AR, VR, holography; Internet of Everything): to increase speed (2 Gb/s for 16K video), lower latency (5 ms), to support 100b connections by 2030; to add 3 scenarios (to eMBB, mMTC, URLLC): UCBC (Uplink Centric Broadband Communication; uplink x10), RTBC (Real-Time Broadband Communication; bandwidthe x10 for given latency & reliability), HCS (Harmonized Communication & Sensing; enables autonomous driving, Massive MIMO for sensing); requires more spectrum (sub 100 GHz), AI (limitless intelligence)
    • Vodafone Group CEO Nick Read:
      • "... dynamic spectrum sharing technology which operators use to show coverage but will essentially be 4G speeds." (currently used in NL, DE)
      • "Some operators are taking dynamic spectrum sharing…which is effectively giving you a 5G symbol but 4G performance. What we said as a company is, ‘No, we don’t want to do that. It will be misleading to consumers and businesses.’ What we want to do is 5G built right."
    • Ericsson ConsumerLab report Harnessing the 5G Consumer Potential: 5G consumer market $31t by 2030 o/w $3.7t for CSPs, ARPU may rise 34% by 2030
    • Rain (FWA ZA) performance (speed) drops due to congestion: from 17 Mb/s in 19Q4 to 11 Mb/s in 20Q3; plans to switch off 4G, to switch to SA 5G
    • 3 Denmark plans 5G launch Dec 2020, target nationwide mid 2022
    • Analysys Mason for Qualcomm, Ericsson: 5G action plan review for Europe report:
      • Use cases with highest impact smart factories, agriculture, FWA (suburban and rural areas), net benefit resp EUR 58, 37, 18b
      • Four key areas (Open Innovation Platform): Smart Production & Logistics (net benefit = benefit - cost EUR 68b), Smart Rural (55b), Smart Urban (29b), Smart Public Services (10b)
      • Environmental & social benefits from 5G connectivity. Worker safety, upskilled workforces, reduced carbon emissions & energy usage, less resource intensive production, social inclusivity, even import/export security; Open Innovation Platform may deliver EUR 208b in benefits at 46b cost (CBR cost-benefit ratio 4.5)
    • Elisa plans 5G-enabled video robots to enable doctors & nurses to interact with corona virus patients remotely.at HUS Helsinki University Hospital
    • Telekom DE plans 5G at Bonner SC football stadium, with live streaming on Sporttotal.tv via automatic 180° camera
    • IHS Market & Omdia for Qualcomm: The 5G economy in a post covid-19 era report on US, China, Japan, S Korea, UK, DE, FR: forecasts 2035 revised on corona virus impact: Sales enabled by 5G $13.1t, 5G-enabled job growth 22.8m, 5G capex + R&D $265b per annum
    • Vodafone IT plans smart city (smart mobility) trials in Genoa: remotely-controlled drones to monitor the safety of the city’s road network via a 3D reconstruction of the corresponding infrastructure; use of 5G-connected buses with HD video cameras to gather real-time data with a view to ensuring the maintenance of road surfaces
    • Bouygues plans 5G launch 201201, targets nationwide end 2021
    • Telenor DK launches 5G-3500 in Copenhagen, Aalborg (600k covered pops)
    • SFR (Altice FR) launches 5G in Nice; 40 EUR/mo for unlimited voice/text + 80 GB (EUR 5 more than for 4G)

Video

  • RTL
    • Distr deal Mediengruppe RTL DE for TVNOW Premium with Telekom DE (DT): free in bundle with Magenta TV Smart and Magenta TV Smart Flex subs (to be integrated; combined 60k hr of content); to partner in ad tech (Smartclip and Yospace, addressable TV ad trial 2021, with Telekom's emetriq), ad sales, content
    • Salto France TV, M6, TF1) reaches 100k subs after 3 weeks
  • DAZN: Distr deal with Vodafone DE: OTT + 2 linear channels, 10 EUR/mo
  • YouTube: Launches Audio Ads (15 sec, beta, auctioned on CPM basis) and ad-targetable music lineups (genres, Top 100 charts by country); total 70m tracks, 2b MAU, 15% of consumption is background music
  • Comcast
    • Universal Pictures partners with Cinemark for shortened theatrical window: if opening weekend generates >$50m, then theatrical window at least 31 days (5 weekends); if not, available for on demand after 17 days (3 weekends); rumor: terms extend to AMC
    • Hayu launches in DE, AT (via Amazon Prime Video Channels)
  • AT&T
  • Walt Disney
    • Hulu raises price of Hulu With Live TV by $10 to 65 $/mo
    • Disney+ launches in Latam
    • Rumor: Pinocchio, Peter Pan, Cruella may skip theaters to premiere on Disney+

Services & hardware

Regulatory

  • Telecoms
    • ACM (NL) proposes deregulation of Hoogwaardige Wholesaletoegang (HWT) over copper on business market over increased fiber-based alternatives, based on new Market Analysis; consultation until 210114
    • BIPT plans 5G auction end 2021 or early 2022
  • Apple: Privacy activist Max Schrems (noyb) complaint in DE, ES (under EU’s e-Privacy directive, not GDPR): iPhone tracking code IDFA (Identifier for Advertisers) lets Apple and all iPhone app developers see how users behave without their knowledge or agreement - Apple denies: does not use or access IDFA - Facebook: Apple data collection is about profits, not privacy


Monday, November 16, 2020

Week 46 in Telecoms, Internet, Media

Corporate

  • KPN
  • Orange
    • Acquires 54% stake in Telekom Romania Communications (TKR) from OTE (state retains 46%), EUR 268m (EV EUR 497m; #2 in fixed (5m customers, 3m fiber customers, 1.2m TV subs, 960k BB subs) & FMC (881k subs vai MVNO on Telekom Romania Mobile, to migrate to Orange RO); to close 21H2
    • Launches Djoliba: West African fibre backbone (10k km terrestrial & 10k km undersea), connecting capitals of Burkina Faso, Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana, Guinea, Liberia, Mali, Nigeria, Senegal
    • Conseil d'Etat sides with Orange in tax dispute, to recover EUR 2.2b paid in July 2013
  • Telefonica: Rumor: considers sale of undersea cable network (run by Telxius = Telefonica Tech). EUR 2b (10x EBITDA)
  • TIM: plans datacenter spin-off 21Q1
  • Vodafone: Bloomberg: to raise EUR 4b from Vantage Towers (68k in 9 markets) IPO early 2021, valuation EUR 20b (EV)
  • Virgin Media UK (Liberty Global: Sunrise deal closes 201111, holds >98%, plans squeeze-out    
  • Platforma Canal+ Polski (Vivendi): Cancels IPO plan over market volatility
  • 3 Group Europe (CK Hutchison)
    • Sale & lease-back (15 yr + option on 15 more) 24600k towers in IT (8900), UK (6000), IE (1150), AT (400), DK (500), SE (2650) to Cellnex, EUR 10b o/w 8.6b cash + 1.4b in shares (for a 5% stake); to add 5250 towers, EUR 1.4b; total rev & EBITDA (incl new sites) increase EUR 1.2b resp. 970m; to close by country over 18 mo
    • Fitch on Cellnex deal: "additional financial flexibility ahead of the group's 5G investment increase, and alleviate near-term pressure on free cash flow and leverage caused by the pandemic" - "The deal underscores the shift towards passive network sharing as telecom operators seek to monetise non-core assets and extract operational synergies."
  • Eurofiber: Acquires network assets from Levelfour (15 business parks)
  • Proximus: Citymesh to be MVNO on Proximus for business market, Private networks 
  • Telstra: Plans split in 3 legal entities: InfraCo Fixed (passive physical infra:  ducts, fibre, data centres, subsea cables, exchanges); InfraCo Towers (may be sold); ServeCo.(incl active elements: RAN, spectrum, fiber)
  • Spotify: Acquires Megaphone: podcast tech (advertising, publishing), $235m cash
  • Vimeo (IAC): Raises $150m equity; IAC considers spin-off
  • Alchimie: Plans IPO in Paris; has 300k subs for 55 SVOD theme channels (aggregated from 300 rights owners incl BBC, Arte, France Télévision, ZDF Entreprises etc)
  • Believe: Rumor: plans IPO 2021, valuation EUR 2b
  • Snap: Acquires Voca.ai, rumored price $70m (AI-based voice agents for call centers)

Hardware

Services

  • Business telecom: Telekom DE launches MagentaBusiness HomeOffice: hardware (Apple MacBook or Dell Latitude; Apple also payable in monthly installments), connectivity, software (collaboration tools), security package, consulting, support
  • T-commerce: NBCU partners with PayPal to offer t-commerce
  • Video
    • Netflix
      • Distr deal with DNA (= Telenor) in Finland: bundle of BB & Netflix family tier (4 screens), one bill
      • With Google: bundle with Chromecast, $90 (ie 50% discount on Standard tier for 6 mo)
    • ViacomCBS
      • Reaches 17.9m subs at 200930 (CBS All Access & Showtime); target 19m YE 2020; to sunset smaller streaming services (MTV Hits, NickHits, Comedy Central Now, Noggin)
      • Pluto TV Reaches 28.4m subs at 200930

  • Web services
    • Google: Google Photos ends unlimited photo storage 210601, total free storage on Google Drive (photos, documents) 15 GB; currently 4t photoso stored in Google Photos, 28b photos/videos added per week
    • Amazon
      • Amazon Alexa launches Care Hub (help people to care for aging family members)
      • Launches GameOn app for mobile: capture & share mobile gameplay, clips between 30 sec and 5 min, supports 1k games
    • Facebook: Facebook Messenger and Instagram launch Vanish Mode: allows auto-delete for chats

Networks

Regulatory

  • Telecoms: Min EZK (NL) opens consultation on Regeling veiligheid en integriteit telecommunicatie, until 201216
  • Spectrum: CTU (CZ) starts multiband auction (700 MHz & 3.4-3.6 GHz), starting prices CZK 5.4b; 700 portion reserved for newcomer
  • Streaming video
  • Search: Google: 135 companies & 30 associatoions call on EC antitrust Chief Margarethe Vestager: Google Search favors Google Shopping, Google Travel, Google Jobs in OneBoxes (EC Digital markets Act draft planned 201202: level playing field for platforms)
  • E-commerce: Amazon: EC prelim view: breaches EU antitrust rules by distorting competition in online retail markets (systematically relying on non-public business data of independent sellers who sell on its marketplace, to the benefit of Amazon's own retail business) in DE & FR, sends Statement of Objections; opens second antitrust investigation of Buy Box (favors Amazon and sellers using FBA)
  • Privacy: Inrupt (= Tim Berners Lee) launches Solid: privacy platform for enterprises; starts pilot with Flanders: to roll out Solid to 6.5m people


Sunday, November 15, 2020

Netflix: all the originals and licensing announcements of Week 45-46

Series
Movies
Non-fiction
Animation
Holidays

Monday, November 02, 2020

Week 44 in Telecoms, Internet, Media

Corporate

M&A

Earnings

Networks

FTTP

  • KPN: Acquires Sterk Midden-Drenthe FTTH: 5900 premises in 23 villages, to close Nov 2020; to provide service on the network from 2021
  • Primevest & T-Mobile NL start FTTP roll-out in Eindhoven: 29k premises in Centrum, Strijp, Gestel (186 route km, 1680 fiber km), to finish end 2021
  • Proximus: Establishes JV with Eurofiber to design, build, maintain, upgrade FTTH in Wallonia, target 500k premises
  • Telefonica DE: Establishes 50/50 OA FTTP JV with Allianz, EUR 5b in 6 yr (Telefonica EUR 500m in equity, Allianz EUR 1b + external financing): rural & semi-rural FTTP to 2m HH; Telefonica Infra to own 40%, Telefonica DE 10%, Allianz 50%; to close 21H1
  • Comcast: Sky UK launches FTTP option for Sky Broadband Superfast and Sky Broadband Ultrafast subs; coverage 3m HP, target 7.3m by March 2021; average speed 145/27 Mb/s; 35 GBP/mo; G.fast reach 2.8m HH, FTTC 28.9m

5G

  • Finnish Shared Network Ltd (SYV; = DNA, Telia FI) orders 5G RAN from Nokia (also: 2G, 3G, 4G site modernisation), 2021-2023
  • OnePlus launches Nord N10 5G, EUR 200 (without 5G: from EUR 200)
  • TPG Telecom plans 5G-based FWA service ('the method of delivery of broadband, whether via fixed line or mobile, is increasingly irrelevant')
  • T-Mobile NL reaches near-nationwide (90% pops) coverage
  • Post Luxembourg orders 5G Core & RAN from Ericsson
  • BT plans Private 5G in Belfast Harbour, to launch early
  • C Spire to launch 5G in Brookhaven (Lincoln County) & Columbus (Lowndes County)
  • FCC (US) establishes 5G Fund for Rural America, $9b in 10 yr
  • Vodacom ZA orders 5G (Cora, RAN, FWA) from Nokia (incl 700/800, 2600, 3500 MHz bands to be auctioned 21Q1)
  • T-Mobile US expands 5G-2500 by 200 to 410 cities; target 100m pops coverage YE 2020
  • Verizon 5G Home Internet (FWA) expands to Atlanta, Dallas, Denver, San Jose (total 12 cities)
  • DNA expands 5G to Ylivieska, total pops coverage <1.5m
  • Telenor SE launches 5G in Stockholm, nationwide by 2023l unlimited data 570 SEK/mo
  • Hrvatski Telekom launches 5G in parts of Zagreb, Rijeka, Split, Osijek, Samobor, Sveta Nedelj, based on DSS

Services

Video

Other

  • Music: Google: YouTube Music & Music Premium reach 30m paying subs at 200930 (35m incl free trials)
  • Gaming: Facebook: Launches Facebook Gaming (beta; cloud gaming, no downloads), free, first on Android & web (not on iOS over Apple's App Store policy [see Apple 200911]), 6 games (mobile-first), users can chose Player Name
  • Television
    • T-Mobile US relaunches TVision, with dongle (Android-based, $50, with Bluetooth for casting from devices, Google Play), remote (with Google Assistant; dedicated buttons for Netflix, YouTube, EPG, nDVR); tiers: TVision Live 40 $/mo (3 simultaneously streams, 100 hr storage), Live TV+ 50 $/mo (10 more channels), Live Zone 60 $/mo (20 more channels); access to 3rd-party services via TVision Channels (Showtime 11 $/mo, Starz 9 $/mo, Epix 6 $/mo), TVision Vibe 10 $/mo (30 entertainment channels); promo for Live TV+ and Live Zone subs: 1 yr free Apple TV+; to be available for non-subs 2021
    • Canal+ Polski launches hybrid DTT/OTT box (based on Android TV'4K, HDR), PLZ 300 (EUR 65); with 4 tiers
  • Broadband: Orange BE launches Home Internet (BB-only): 100 Mb/s for 40 EUR/mo (TV add-on 15 EUR/mo, voice 10 EUR/mo, Internet Boost to 400 Mb/s 15 EUR/mo); with FUP (max 750 GB/mo)
  • Chat: Facebook: WhatsApp reaches 100m messages/day
  • Apple
    • FT: plans search engine competitor as part of iOS 14L shows own results, links directly to sites
    • Launches Apple One: bundle of Apple Music, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, iCloud; 3 tiers: Individual 15 $/mo (50 GB), Family 20 (200 GB, max 6 users), Premier 30 (2 TB; max 6 users; also has News+, Fitness+)

Regulatory

  • Google
    • Search engine alliance of DuckDuckGo (US), Ecosia (DE), Lilo (FR), Qwant (FR), Seznam (CZ) ask EC for trilateral meeting to establish a more effective preference menu in Android to more easily choose a default search engine
    • AGCM (Italian Competition Authority) starts investigation into digital ads market for p[ossible abuse of dominant position
  • Facebook: Sued in England/Wales in CALS (Facebook You Owe Us) over failing to protect users' personal data in the Cambridge Analytica breach
  • Platforms
    • ACCC Digital Platform Services inquiry interim report: Google 58% and Facebook 23% of digital ad spend (2018: 49 resp 24%)
    • Marrgethe Vestager (EC VP for Digital Affairs) opposes company break-up for internet platforms (but doable)
    • Hearing US Senate Commerce Committee with CEOs of Facebook (Mark Zuckerberg), Twitter (Jack Dorsey), Google (Sundar Pichai) over content moderation and Section 230


Sunday, November 01, 2020

Netflix: all the originals and licensing announcements of Week 44

Series
Movies
Documentaries