Sunday, August 16, 2020

Week 33 in Telecoms, Internet & Media

5G



VIDEO
  • AT&T
    • Rumor: to sell Crunchyroll to Sony but price ($1.5b) too high
    • Rumor: CNN plans global streaming service
  • Apple: Bloomberg: plans bundling Apple TV+ with CBS All Access (stand-alone 10), Showtime (stand-alone 11) for 10 $/mo (on top of 5 for Apple TV+)
  • Locast: Launches in Minneapolis-St Paul, total pops coverage US 42%
  • ViacomCBS
    • Bloomberg: plans SVOD bundle (CBS All Access, Showtime) with Apple TV+ for 15 $/mo
    • Rumor: to rebrand CBS All Access in 2021, possibly to Paramount+
  • Fox Corp: Fox News Media to launch Fox News International (SVOD, based on Fox News Channel & Fox Business) 200820, 7 $/mo first in Mexico, 200917 in ES, DE, UK, total 20 countries YE 2020; apps for iOS, Android, Apple TV, Android TV, later Amazon Fire TV, Roku
  • Telenet: EC approves streaming JV of Telenet & DPG Media: Streamz, to be established 200901, Peter Vindevogel (Telenet) CEO, Kris Vervaet (DPG) Chair; to focus on Flemish & int content
  • Tricolor (DSB, Russia) adds TVOD to streaming service


MEDIA & SERVICES

Internet
  • Amazon
    • To add podcasts to Amazon Music (both free and paid tiers), Audible (combined 55m users)
  • Apple
    • To direct users to Apple News+ for reading articles (instead of publisher websites) from autumn 2020; also for links appearing in social media & search results
    • Bloomberg: Plans Apple One subscription bundle Oct 2020, with Family Sharing (max 6): Music, TV+ (video), News+ (news), Arcade (gaming), iCloud (storage) (not Apple Care or monthly paid hardware); 3 tiers: 1. Music + TV+, 2. Music + TV+ + Gaming, 3. Music + TV+ + Gaming + iCloud; could be limited by music majors agreements not allowing Apple Music bundling with other services; plans app for virtual fitness classes (subscription-based, codename Seymour)
Media
Telecoms
  • Sunrise launches Back to School promos until 200831: 100 CHF/mo in 24 mo contract for BB, TV (neo max), Macbook Air (retail price CHF 1130), Apple TV (retail price CHF 200); free iPhone SE & Apple Airpods for new Freedom swiss unlimited subs (65 CHF/mo in 24 mo contract); fgree MacBook Air for new Freedom europe & US subs (100 CHF/mo in 24 mo contract)
  • Ludwigsburg (DE) launches V2X tech from Cohda Wireless, with Swarco (traffic tech): all traffic lights & intersections fitted with Cohda MK5 road-side units, which correspond with MK5 on-board units in fire trucks & rescue vehicles to grant them green-light passage when on the way to emergencies


REGULATORY

Platforms

Platforms general
  • Indonesia extends 10% VAT on Amazon, Google, Netflix, Spotify [see 200710] to Facebook, Disney, Apple, TikTok; to be collected from 200901
  • EU and US talk over replacing Privacy Shield
  • Social networks (Google, Facebook, Twitter, Pinterest, LinkedIn & Microsoft, Reddit, Verizon Media, Wikimedia) cooperate on scenario planning during run-up to US Presidential Election 201103
  • Epic Games sues Apple & Google for banning Fortnite from app stores as Fortnite bypassed in-app payment systems from Apple & Google, claims monopolistic behavior (violates Sherman Act & California’s Cartwright Act), claims that Google blocked OnePlus & LG from pre-installing Fortnite launchers on new smartphones - Spotify and Match Group support Epic; [Apple has monopoly on iOS access for apps through App STore; Google allows sideloading app (not through Play Store) and 3rd party app stores such as Epic's, but erected contractual & technological barriers on distributing apps not through Play Store] - Apple refused Facebook's request to waive 30% App Store fee for small businesses hosting live events (Facebook Pay instead applies zero fee)
  • The Privacy Collective sues Oracle & Salesforce (CALS) over personal data collection, bundling & trading
Spectrum
  • RTR (AT) plans multiband (6 blocks of 2x10 in 700, 12 blocks of 2x5 in 2100, 9 blocks of 1x5 1500) auction Aug-Sep 2020; coverage obligation: 900 towns (of 2100) with little or no mobile to be connected to 5G, bonus (price discount) for connecting any of the 1200 other
  • CTU (CZ) launches multiband auction tender, applcations due 200930: 700 band (2x10 MHz reserved for newcomer), 3400-3600 band - MNOs oppose newcomer
  • FCC (US) to reallocate military spectrum (100 MHz in 3.5 GHz band: 3.45-3.55) for 5G by 2021
  • ACMA (Australia) plans 26 GHz auction March 2021, cap 1 GHz
  • MoC Israel ends 5G auction, 3 winners with identical spectrum (2x5 in 700 band valid 15 yr; 2x10 in 2600 band valid 10 yr; 100 in 3500 band valid 10 yr): Cellcom/Golan Telecom/Marathon Telecom (owns 018 Xfone; pay ILS 115m = $34m), Pelephone (= Bezeq; pays ILS 88m), Partner Comms/HOT Mobile (ILS 62m); to be paid Sep 2022
Telecoms


CORPORATE

  • BT: Daily Telegraph: pension deficit (GBP 11.3b) could be reduced by shifting part of Openreach (estimated value GBP 20b) to the fund
  • CK Hutchison: 3 DK plans infra (1275 towers) spin-off as HI3G Networks, open for others
  • Equinix: Acquires 2 datacenters (carrier neutral) from GPX India, $161m
  • PPF: Rumor: considers selling MNOs acquired from Telenor (Bulgaria, Serbia, Montenegro, Hungary)
  • Liberty Global: Offer for Sunrise (CH)
    • Sunrise board & shareholder Freenet (24%) support
    • 110 CHF/share cash (premium 28% to 200811, 32% over last 60 days average), valuation CHF 5.0b, EV CHF 6.8b
    • valuation 7.5x adj EBITDA or 10.3x adj OpFCF after synergies, 10.0x adj EBITDA or 17,6x adj OpFCF before synergies
    • to be financed from cash (CHF 3.5b) & new debt (CHF 3.2b o/w 1.6b for refinancing Sunrise debt)
    • synergies NPV after costs CHF 3.1b (o/w CHF 2.6b from low-risk cost & capex), annual run rate from rev, costs, capex CHF 275m (46m from rev, 187m from opex, 42m from capex)
    • tender to start end Aug 2020 for 40 business days, unconditional on reaching two-thirds, to squeeze out minorities & delist, expects approval end 2020
    • break-up fee CHF 50m for Sunrise
    • pro forma combination: >3500 employees, rev CHF 3.1b, 2.1m postpaid subs, 1.2m BB subs, 1.3m TV subs, market share in each ~30%
    • target gigabit BB coverage 90% of HH by 2021 (UPC 75%, Sunrise 30%), to upgrade to 10 Gb/s over time
    • "attractive opportunity to deploy existing cash to unlock substantial synergies and sustainable free cash flow growth. (...) “This transaction is another significant step on our path to create fixed-mobile champions in all of our core markets. (...)  after this deal, and assuming completion of our recently announced UK transaction, we will continue to have approximately $7 billion of liquidity8 to drive value-creation for shareholders."
    • UPC/Sunrise to become part of UPC credit pool, target leverage 5.0x
    • May consider IPO fo the merged business in the future
  • Vivendi Proposes talks with Mediaset to settle differences - Mediaset rejects, demands compensation
  • ViacomCBS Speculation on future after Sumner Redstone died 200811
  • Warner Music Group Acquires IMGN Media (creates shareable social media content including memes & short videos for Instagram & TikTok)
  • FuboTV: Files for IPO; Walt Disney acquired 6.6m shares = 17%
  • Alphabet
  • Facebook: Bloomberg: establishes F2 (Facebook Financial) arouind payments (Facebook Pay, Novi (formerly Calibra), WhatsApp Pay), led by David Marcus

EARNINGS

  • Deutsche Telekom: 20Q2
    • T-Mobile NL: Tele2 integration & synergies on track, corona virus reduced roaming income (VR, OoB outgoing), 5G-700 reached 85% coverage (nationwide end 2020)
  • TDC: 20Q2
  • Swisscom: 20Q2
  • Turkcell: 20Q2
  • Go Malta: 20Q2
  • Freenet: 20Q2
  • United Internet: Raises outlook 2020: rev growth 2020 4% (formerly: flat)
  • 1&1 Drillisch: Raises outlook 2020: rev growth 4%
  • QSC: 20Q2
  • RTL: 20Q2
    • TV ad rev -40%
    • streaming subs (TV Now, Videoland) 1.77m (+45%), TV Now subs +50%, viewing time +36%, Videoland subs +41%, viewing time +31%
    • outlook 20Q3: tv ad rev -10%
    • outlook 2020: rev & adj EBITA significantly below 2019
    • 3 priorities: 1. Strengthen core (TV ads), 2. Boost growth business (streaming & content (Fremantle)), 3. Foster alliances & partnerships (Smartclip, Atresmedia)
    • LT streaming targets 2025 maintained: 5-7m subs, rev >EUR 500m, content spend 350m EUR/yr, EBITA break-even
  • Meredith: 20Q2
  • Dentsu: 20Q2
  • FuboTV: 20Q2: 286k paying subs,  rev $44m (+53%), net loss $100m


Wednesday, August 12, 2020

Liberty Global offer for Sunrise

Offer

  • Sunrise board & shareholder Freenet (24%) support
  • 110 CHF/share cash (premium 28% to 200811, 32% over last 60 days average)
  • Tender to start end Aug 2020 for 40 business days
  • Unconditional on reaching two-thirds, to squeeze out minorities & delist, expects approval end 2020
  • To be financed from cash (CHF 3.5b) & new debt (CHF 3.2b o/w 1.6b for refinancing Sunrise debt)
  • Break-up fee CHF 50m for Sunrise

Valuation

  • Equity CHF 5.0b, EV CHF 6.8b
  • 7.5x adj EBITDA or 10.3x adj OpFCF after synergies
  • 10.0x adj EBITDA or 17.6x adj OpFCF before synergies

Synergies

  • NPV after costs CHF 3.1b (o/w CHF 2.6b from low-risk cost & capex)
  • Annual run rate from rev, costs, capex CHF 275m (46m from rev, 187m from opex, 42m from capex)

Pro forma combination

  • >3500 employees
  • Rev CHF 3.1b
  • 2.1m postpaid subs, 1.2m BB subs, 1.3m TV subs, market share in each ~30%
  • Target gigabit BB coverage 90% of HH by 2021 (UPC 75%, Sunrise 30%)
  • To upgrade to 10 Gb/s over time
  • UPC/Sunrise to become part of UPC credit pool, target leverage 5.0x
  • May consider IPO of the merged business in the future

Quotes

  • "attractive opportunity to deploy existing cash to unlock substantial synergies and sustainable free cash flow growth."
  • “This transaction is another significant step on our path to create fixed-mobile champions in all of our core markets"
  • " ... after this deal, and assuming completion of our recently announced UK transaction, we will continue to have approximately $7 billion of liquidity to drive value-creation for shareholders."


Sunday, August 09, 2020

Week 32 in Telecoms, Internet, Media

CORPORATE

Earnings
  • VodafoneZiggo: 20Q2 prelim (final: Aug 2020)
    • stopped using OCF, replaced by Adj EBITDA
    • 95% of targeted cost synergies (210m) realised, on track to deliver 1 yr early
    • spectrum costs (EUR 416m) to be paid 50/50 in 2020 & 2021, to be funded by new shareholder loans
    • maintains guidance 2020 (despite expected economic slowdown): adj EBITDA stable to modest growth, TSR 400-500m
  • Liberty Global 20Q2
  • TIM: 20Q2
  • Intred: 20Q2
  • Magyar Telekom: 20Q2
  • CK Hutchison/3 Group Europe: 20Q2
  • Rostelecom: 20Q2
  • SES: 20Q2
  • Intelsat: 20Q2
  • Viasat: 20/21Q1
  • Warner Music: 20Q2
  • Sony: 20/21Q1
  • Walt Disney: 19/20Q3
  • ViacomCBS: 20Q2
    • Pluto reached 26.5m MAU in US (target 30m YE 2020), global 33m MAU
    • CBS All Access & Showtime 16.2m subs in US
  • Discovery: 20Q2
  • AMC Networks: 20Q2
  • AMC Entertainment: 20Q2
  • Fox Corp: 20/21Q4     
  • ITV: 20Q2 
  • Activision Blizzard: 20Q2
  • Nielsen: 20Q2
    • to spin off Global Connect unit 21Q1

M&A

Funding
Expansion
  • Amazon
  • UGC
    • Facebook: Instagram launches Reels in >50 countries [see 20070716]: create 15-sec edited videos
    • Snap: Snapchat launches feature to add music to Snaps (trial in Australia & NZ) [a la TikTok], licensing deals with Warner Music, Warner Chappell, Universal Music Publishing, NMPA, Merlin


NETWORKS

Fixed

5G

4G


CONTENT

Video

  • SKO (NL): living room TV set usage down for live linear TV, up double digit for delayed and VOD viewing
  • US District Judge approves DoJ termination of Paramount Consent Decrees (barred studios from owning movie theaters (applied to Warner Bros, 20th Century Fox, Paramount)
  • Walt Disney
    • Disney+ reaches 60.5m subs; Mulan to premiere on Disney+ 200904 for $30 (one-off TVOD offering); Disney+ to expand to Indonesia 200905
    • plans new int OTT service Star 2021 [instead of expanding Hulu internationally], content from content from ABC, FX, Freeform, Searchlight, 20th Century Studios, no licensed content, focus on adults
    • Disney+, Hulu (35.5m) & ESPN+ (8.5m) have combined >100m subs
    • Hulu adds annual subscription tier, 60 $/yr (first for existing subs)
  • ViacomCBS
    • No plans to bundle CBS All Access, Showtime, BET+. Noggin as single service in US
    • Plans global SVOD service early 2021 in Australia, Nordics, Latam, with originals from Showtime, CBS All Access, content from CBS, MTV, Comedy Central, Nickelodeon, some first-run moviers from Paramount; to continue from existing services in some countries: Australia (CBS All Access), Nordics, E-Europe, Latam (Paramount+)
  • Discovery plans streaming service (as companion to services such as Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, Disney+)
  • Eleven Sports rebrands to Eleven; strategy update (2.0): to expand in Europe from 2021, adds 3 vertical: Elevenwomen, Elevennext (local), Eleven Esports
  • Quibi launches free+ads AVOD tier in Australia/NZ, reduces SVOD tier from 13 to 7 AUD/mo

Music

Gaming

  • Microsoft: to launch xCloud (streaming) 200915 for Android (ended iOS test) in 22 countries (AT, BE, Canada, CZ, DK, FI, FR, DE, HU, IE, IT, NL, NO, PL, PT, Slovakia, ES, SK, SE, CH, UK, US) with >100 games, as part of Xbox Game Pass Ultimate (15 $/mo); with Xbox & 3rd-party controllers (Sony, Razer, PowerA, 8BitDo); distr deal in SK with SKT

SERVICES

Telekom DE expands MagentaEINS-Beta-Tarif (service ends 210930) to 2000 more subs, 20 EUR/mo in 12 mo contract: fixed (VDSL max 50 Mb/s + mobile (LTE; unlimited in DE for voice, text, data; 15 GB EU data) 
KT launches smart building services, with KT Estate: Smart Building Sensing (monitors boilers, water tanks, motors & other operational facilities), Smart Building BEMS (building energy management system) 
Lycamobile BE (MVNO on Base = Telenet) launches unlimited (voice, text, data with FUP of 35 GB/mo, thereafter throttling to 512 kb/s, EU roaming 19 GB/mo) prepaid, 40 EUR/mo


HARDWARE

Samsung Galaxy Unpacked: launches Galaxy Note20 & Galaxy Note20 Ultra (notebook with new S Pen, with 5G), Tab S7 & S7+ (tablets with 5G), Galaxy Watch3 (smartwatch with health features), Galaxy Buds Live (earbuds), Galaxy Z Fold2 (foldable smartphone)
Google launches Pixel 4A smartphone in US, $350 (ships from 200820); to launch Pixel 4A with 5G (from $500) & Pixel 5 with 5G autumn 2020 - Discontinues Pixel 4 & 4XL - Rumor: plans foldable smartphone (Project Passport) 21Q4
Amazon launched 2nd version of Ring Video Doorbell, $100


REGULATORY, CSR

Spectrum

  • AKOM (Slovenia) plans 5G auction (700, 1500, 2.1, 2.3, 3.6, 26) 20H2, with caps per bidder: 2x35 MHz in low bands (700, 800, 900), 190 MHz in midbands (2.3, 3.6), 1x800 in 26 GHz, 425 MHz in low/mid (700, 2100, 2300, 3600 incl current holdings in 800, 900, 1800, 2600)
  • Ofcom (UK) plans auction (simultaneous multiple round ascending, SMRA) Jan 2021
    • to add 18% to total spectrum; 80 MHz in 700 band (6 lots of 2x5, reserve price GBP 100m each; 4 lots of 1x5 for down only, reserve price GBP 1m each), 120 MHz in 3.6-3.8 band (24 lots of 1x5, reserve price GBP 20m each)
    • no coverage obligations
    • 37% cap on total spectrum, restricts MNOs to acquire max 120 MHz (BT/EE), 185 MHz (3), 190 MHz (Vodafone), unrestricted (O2)
    • combined reserve prices GBP 1.084b
    • to facilitate defragmentation of 3.6-3.8 band by allowing negotiations during assignment stage, enabling the winning of adjacent spectrum
    • Vodafone and 3 propose to cancel auction (award spectrum at reserve prices) because of cost to remove Huawei equipment
  • FCC (US) PAL (3550-3650 MHz) auction (CBRS, auction 105) reaches $2.2b after 28 rounds    
  • FCC (US) plans C-band (280 MHz in 3.7-4.0 GHz range) auction to start 201208

Telecoms

Platforms

  • Alphabet
    • YouTube: Banned 1000s of Chinese accounts (2596 in 20Q2) over coordinated influence operations on political issues
    • Alphabet: The Markup: Alphabet made certain words taboo (market, barriers to entry, network effects) when training new employees
  • Amazon:
  • Facebook
  • Twitter
    • FTC could fine $150-250m for misusing emails & phone numbers (for targeted ads), based on 2011 agreement
    • To exclude tweets from state-controlled media organisations (except those with editorial independence, such as BBC, NPR) from its recommendation systems (for search, notifications, timelines)
  • Apple: removes 27k games & apps from App Store in China to comply with Chinese law

Platforms general:


STOCK MARKET PERFORMANCE

European telecoms
  • Week 32:
    • Benchmark EuroStoxx 50: +2.5%
    • Winner TalkTalk (+10%), loser VEON (-7.7%)
  • YTD:
    • Benchmark EuroStoxx 50: -13%
    • Winner Intred (+75%), loser Intelsat (-95%)
Global media
  • Week 32:
    • Benchmark S&P 500: +2.5%
    • Winner AMC Entertainment +18%, loser Salem Media -9.0%
  • YTD
    • Benchmark S&P 500: +3.7%
    • Winner Bilibili (+123%), loser Gannett (-76%)


Sunday, August 02, 2020

Week 31 in Telecoms, Internet, Media

EARNINGS
  • KPN: 20Q2
    • cumulativ cost savings since 190101 EUR 213m, maintains target YE 2021: EUR 350m
    • maintains outlook 2020, outlook 2021 uncertain; plans interim div 4.3 c./share 200804
    • plans new reporting: new Consumer rev break-down (convergence, BB-only, postpaid-only, legacy/non-SR), new KPIs (HH replacing RGUs, to add ARPA (address)), Business end-to-end adj EBITDA AL
    • mobile site modernisation targets: FTTS to 95%, backhaul 10 Gb/s, 5G-ready, 6-8 frequency bands, 4x4 MIMO (or higher), 1 antenna, 3 site configurations
  • Orange: 20Q2
  • Telefonica: 20Q2
  • Telefonica Deutschland: 20Q2
  • BT: 20/21Q1
  • Proximus: 20Q2
  • Telenet: 20Q2
  • Telekom Slovenije: 20Q2
  • Altice Europe: 20Q2
  • MasMovil: 20Q2
  • Equinix: 20Q2
  • Digital Realty: 20Q2
  • Eutelsat: 19/20Q4 
  • Google: 20Q2
  • Amazon: 20Q2
  • Facebook: 20Q2
  • Pinterest: 20Q2
  • Spotify: 20Q2
  • Vivendi: 20Q2
  • ProSieben: 20Q2
  • Omnicom: 20Q2
  • Interpublic: 20Q2


CORPORATE


NETWORKS - FIXED

Fiber
  • Telefonica: Proposes Digital Deal for Spain
    • GDP impact 1.8% per annum until 2025
    • slogan "A Digital Deal to build back better our societies and economies"
    • 100% FTTP coverage by 2025, to lead in 5G
    • 5 priorities: 1. Boosting digitalisation for a more sustainable society & economy; 2. Addressing inequalities by investing in digital skills & adapting the welfare state; 3. Building inclusive & sustainable connectivity; 4. Ensuring fair competition by modernising the fiscal, regulatory & competition frameworks; 5. Improving trust through ethical & responsible use of technology.
  • Telefonica Deutschland
  • TIM
    • Rumor: gvt IT wants single OA NBN from TIM network merger with Open Fiber, majority-owned by TIM, open for outside investors
    • Reuters: KKR offers EUR 1.8b for 38% in access network (FiberCorp), CDP (gvt; currently 10% of TIM) to also take stake, Fastweb (Swisscom; currently 20% in JV FlashFiber with TIM) 4.4%; KKR, Macquarie, Wren interested in Open Fiber
    • TIM confirms KKR offer, to discuss 200804
  • Proximus
    • Targets 4.2m FTTP premises by end 2028 (= 70% coverage)
    • partners with Delta Fiber (= EQT) for Flanders (1.5m premises) via JV
    • partners with Eurofiber (= Antin) for Wallonia (0.5m premises) via JV
  • Community Fibre
    • plans FTTP in London, target 1m premises by 2023
    • Warburg Pincus & DTCP acquire controlling stake (other: Amber Infrastructure, RPMI Railpen)
    • appoints Olaf Swantee (formerly Sunrise, EE) Exec Chair
    • Consumers max 1 Gb/s (average 920/920 Mb/s) for 50 GBP/mo, Businesses 1 Gb/s for 300 GBP/mo, max 10 Gb/s for 500 GBP/mo
  • Fore Freedom to reuse abandoned fuel ducts form Dpt of Defence
Other


NETWORKS - WIRELESS

5G
Other
  • SKT starts 2G switch-off
  • SpaceX to raise $1b at $44b valuation
  • Amazon: FCC approves Project Kuiper: 3236 satellites (at 590-630 km: LEO), 50% to be operational by 260730, 100% by 290730; >$10b; 5 phases, to activate after 578 satellites; for rural BB, 4G/5G backhaul; to use 10-14 GHz, 17-20 GHz and 27-30 GHz bands


SERVICES

Video
Telecoms
  • BT launches Halo (FMC) for small businesses: Superfast Fibre Broadband, Digital Phone Line, Unlimited 4G SIM for 43 GBP/mo
  • Shaw launches sub-brand Shaw Mobile: free unlimited voice/text for BB subs, unlimited data 45 CAD/mo (throttling after 25 GB)
  • 1&1 Drillisch partners with Deutsche Post: physical mail notification (photo) 1 day before delievry for GMX.de and Web.de subs (34m)


REGULATORY

Spectrum, other
Platforms
  • Google
  • Amazon: ILSR report on 3rd-Party Sellers business in 2019: average fee 30% (2014: 19%), net rev $60b, "Amazon’s high fees make it nearly impossible for sellers to sustain a profitable business. Most fail."; proposes regulation (non-discrimination & fair pricing) and structural separation (online marketplace, retail division, logistics operation etc into separate companies)
  • Facebook
    • Established AI Red Team to hack own AI
    • Sues EU for seeking access to too much irrelevant documents in antitrust investigation - Court suspends EU request awaiting EC ruling
    • Blocks 12 accounts of Brazil President Bolsonaro supporters, complying with Supreme Court over fake news, after being fined for only blocking in Brazil [see 200625]; to appeal as regards it a threat to freedom of speech
  • Twitter
  • Snap: Diversity report 2019: 6.8% of employees Latinx, 4.1% black
  • Apple
  • General
    • India bans 47 more Chinese apps, considers to ban 275 more
    • NTIA (= Dpt of Commerce) orders platform regulation from FCC governing liability for content
    • US Congress (House Judiciary's Antitrust subcommittee) antitrust hearing 200729 of CEOs Apple (Tim Cook; App Store), Google (Sundar Pichai; search, ads, Android), Facebook (Mark Zuckerberg; ads, acquisitions, AI use, misinformation), Amazon (Jeff Bezos; 3-rd party sellers, copy services from companies that it invests in); statements from Amazon (size benefits consumers, sellers & the economy, faces plenty of competition from Walmart, Instacart, Shopify), Apple (not dominant in any market), Facebook (more work to do in combating disinformation and voter suppression), Google (helps small businesses thrive; plenty of competition in information from Amazon, Twitter, Snapchat, WhatsApp, online advertising costs dropped 40% over 10 years) - Jeff Bezos: "social media is a nuance-destruction machine"
    • Turkey establishes Digital Platforms Commission; to guard violation of laws, personal rights, fundamental rights, freedoms, privacy
    • ACCC Draft news media and digital platforms mandatory bargaining code: orders platforms (Google, Facebook) to negotiate (in good faith) payments to media outlets for news snippets (on Google News, Search, Discover) from 210101 or risk infringement penalty (max 10% of Australian rev); with arbitration process: independent arbitrator (Australian Communications and Media Authority) to choose which of the two parties’ final offer is most reasonable (within 45 business days); platforms to give notice (28 days) of algorithm changes; platforms to provide usage data (time spent on article, number of articles read etc) - Google disappointed - Consultation August 2020, final order shortly after; code to be reviewed after 1 yr

Sunday, July 26, 2020

Week 30 in Telecoms, Internet, Media

CORPORATE
Main: tower IPOs planned (Telxius, Vantage), eBay sells classifieds.

Proximus
Sewan launches MVNO on Proximus, to launch end 2020 as light MVNO for B2B (unified comms)    
Telefonica
Rumor: considers Telxius IPO for 2021; KKR holds 40%, Amancio Ortega 10%
Colombia to sell its 32.5% stake in Coltel (Telefonica Colombia)

Telekom Austria
Sells stake in FL1 (Telecom Liechtenstein)     

Vodafone
Plans IPO of Vantage Towers (88k sites in 9 countries Europe: DE, ES, GR, PT, CZRO, HU, IE; merger with Wind Hellas, Inwit stake (33.2%, IT) & Cornerstone (JV with Telefonica in ES) to be included) in Frankfurt early 2021; 2020 pro forma     

Eir
May lose >EUR 125m in cumulative rev if Comreg lowers wholesale rates for leasing to NBN

QSC
Acquires Incloud (IT, cloud & web solutions) 200731     

Cellnex
Edizione to reduce stake by 3.4 pp     

RTL
SpotX invests in SpringServe (ad serving platform for OTT & CTV)     

Alphabet/Google
Google Search delays mobile-first indexing to March 2021

Amazon
SMB Impact Report 2020: >2m independent sellers, authors, content creators, delivery providers, developers, IT solution providers in US; average income $160k (2019: $100k)
Amazon IT to add 1600 jobs in 2020 (to 8500 in 25 offices)
Plans 10 new fulfillment centers in India; to offer auto insurance in India
Plans fulfillment center in Mt Juliet (Tenn), to open late 2021: 855 ft^2, 1k FTE
Rivian plans e-van deliveries from early 2021 (10k by 2022, all 100k by 2030) (R1T pick-up truck, R1S SUV from June 2021); Rivian sued by Tesla over stealing trade secrets via former employees (total 178 o/w 70 directly)

Microsoft
LinkedIn Cuts 960 jobs (6%) due to corona virus slowdown in hiring

EBay
Sells eBay Classifieds Group (Mobile.de, Gumtree, Marktplaats, dba, Bilbasen, Kijiji, 2dehands, 2ememain, Vivanuncios, Automobile.it, Motors.co.uk, Autotrader (Australia), Carsguide (Australia), eBay Kleinanzeigen) to Adevinta, $9.2b (based on closing prices 200717) in cash ($2.5b) & stock (540m shares = 44%, 33.3% of votes); annual synergies: $150-185m after 3 yr; to close 21Q1; Schibsted (majority) to vote in favor, Blommenholm Industrier (6.3%) to vote in favor; Schibsted to acquire eBay Classifieds' Danish entity (DBA.dk, Bilbasen.dk) after closing


EARNINGS
Main: Vodafone.
  • Vodafone 20/21Q1 trading update
  • Gamma Communications 20Q2 trading statement
  • TalkTalk 20/21Q1
  • Euskaltel 20Q2     
  • Crnogorksi Telekom 20Q2     
  • Hrvatski Telekom 20Q2
  • NENT Group 20Q2; Viaplay to expand to >15 new countries in ~5 yr     
  • Twitter 20Q2; plans complementary (to ads business) subscription service 20H2
  • Snap 20Q2
  • Microsoft 19/20Q4


5G
Main: Globe Telecom and Telekom Slovenije launch 5G.


VIDEO
Main: Google Fiber terminates TV Nashville, Sky closes OTT-TV Spain, Locast expands.


OTHER SERVICES
Main: IoT launches by Telekom and Inmarsat, Cyfrowy Polsat resells solar.


REGULATORY
Main: auction NL ends.

Termination
Broadband
Spectrum
  • Multiband auction NL (700 available directly 703-733 paired with 758-788, 1400 available directly, 1452-1492; 2100 available from early 2021 as ectension from existing licenses, 1920-1980 paired with 2110-2170; all valid 20 yr until 401231); total 26 blocks) NL ends (started 200629, reserve price total EUR 914.668m), raises EUR 1.231717947b, licenses to be delivered within 10 days; coverage obligations: 98% of each muni, average 100 Mb/s; KPN EUR 415.8m ("satisfied", "reasonable price relative to reserve price"; total 75 MHz; 2x10 in 700 band for 158m for 5G; 3x5 in 1400 band for 95m for 4G & 5G; 4x10 in 2100 band for 163m for 4G & 5G), VZ EUR 415.763924m ("zeer tevreden"; reaches 80% pops coverage with 5G in 1800 band, peak speed 650 Mb/s; 2x10 in 700 band158m; 3x5 in 1400 band 95m; 2x20 in 2100 band 163m), T-Mobile NL EUR 400m ("zeer tevreden"; plans swift 5G launch, as soon as licenses received; "starting prices were too high"; 2x10 in 700 band for 5G 158m; 2x5 in 1400 band 77m; 2x10 in 2100 band 163); 3.5 GHz band auction early 2022; AT requires EMV limit of 28 V/m; all bids to be published by 200728 - 26 GHz auction uncertain (3250 MHz, currently for microwave backhaul)
  • Multiband auction LU ended 200718 (38 rounds), raises EUR 41.3m, duration 15 yr, coverage requirement nationwide by 2025: Post LU 110 MHz (2x10 in 700), Orange LU 110 MHz (2x10 in 700), Proximus (Tango, Telindus) 100 MHz (2x10 in 700), Luxembourg Online 10 MHz (in 3.6 band), Eltrona no licenses
  • FCC (US) starts PAL (3550-3650 MHz) auction (CBRS, auction 105)
Platforms

Wednesday, July 22, 2020

Multiband auction Netherlands 200629-200721 raises EUR 1,232 million

Total
  • 700 band available directly 703-733 paired with 758-788
  • 1400 band available directly, 1452-1492
  • 2100 band available from early 2021, 1920-1980 paired with 2110-2170
  • all valid 20 yr until 401231
  • total 26 blocks
  • reserve price total EUR 914.668m, raises EUR 1.231717947b
  • licenses to be delivered within 10 days
  • coverage obligations: 98% of each muni, average 100 Mb/s, AT requires EMV limit of 28 V/m
  • all bids to be published by 200728 at AT
  • 3.5 GHz band auction early 2022
By MNO
  • KPN EUR 415.8m
    • "satisfied", "reasonable price relative to reserve price"
    • total 75 MHz; 2x10 in 700 band for 158m for 5G; 3x5 in 1400 band for 95m for 4G & 5G; 2x20 in 2100 band for 163m for 4G & 5G
  • VodafoneZiggo EUR 415.763924m
    • "zeer tevreden"
    • 2x10 in 700 band; 3x5 in 1400 band; 2x20 in 2100 band
    • reaches 80% pops coverage with 5G in 1800 band, peak speed 650 Mb/s
  • T-Mobile NL EUR 400m
    • "zeer tevreden", "starting prices were too high"
    • plans swift 5G launch, as soon as licenses received
    • 2x10 in 700 band for 5G; 2x5 in 1400 band; 2x20 in 2100 band