3.5G (HSDPA) is being readied by Siemens for commercial launch in 05Q4.

Some specs:

• HSDPA: High Speed Downlink Packet Access
• Part of GSM/UMTS migration
• Software upgrade (!)
• Enhances spectrum efficiency and capacity
• Delays decrease, allowing for better voice quality
• Theoretical max through put: 14 Mbps; average: 2-3 Mbps
• Demonstration Jan '05, trials 05Q2, commercial launch 05Q4

Addition to previous entry on Shrinking Inventory:

TV:

• DVR skipping
• Remote control zapping

Radio:

• Reduction of commercial time per hour to drive value and improve listener experience

Advertising inventory is under attack from two sides:
Internet: links drives up prices
TV: time-shifted watching (through VDRs) reduces the 30s-commercials market

Inventory on the other hand is growing:
Video games:

• in-game advertising, as a form of product placement that has already emerged form infancy stages. Both Massive and inGamePartners provide services. Nielsen Entertainment trials a metering service in cooperation with Activision (for inventory) and Chrysler (for displaying the Jeep brand).

TV:

• Sponsoring of reality TV shows.
• The rise of the 10s-commercial.

Internet:

• Extending the reach through Google SMS (search from mobile handsets).
• Google Desktop (increase inventory to include PC hard drives) and Enterprise Search (to include intranets).
• Personalisation (such as MyYahoo!) en localisation (Yahoo! Local, Google Local) to drive the value.
• Also: an enhanced search experience. Specifically: MSN will debut a new search engine within the next few months, Vivisimo introduced Clusty and Idealab launched Snap.com. Google, Yahoo! and Ask Jeeves continuously improve their search engines.
• Extending search databases by including books & magazines (Google Print, Amazon Search Inside the Book) and science (HighBeam).
• Advertsing in e-mail (e.g. Google's Gmail) and along web logs (Google's Blogger service).

There does not seem to be a shortage of inventory, but to tap all the above requires capex and willingness to take risks.

Trends 13-19 september 2004:

Telecoms:
· FTTH, PLC: steun van FCC (FTTN max 500 feet)
· Broadband Ned: Impulscommissie adviseert overheidsinvestering 340m (Garantiefonds 260m in 15 jr voor infra (techniek-agnostisch); Stimuleringsfonds 80m in 4 jr voor projecten in sectoren (zorg, onderwijs, mobiliteit, veiligheid))
· DSL: uitbr dekking Verizon (26 staten + DC)
· Triple Play: intr Livebox doo Wanadoo in Ned
· IP TV: plan Tiscali Ita
· LLU: intr 12 Mbps door Tiscali Ita
· WiFi: Cingular breidt dekking uit door samenw met SBC’s WiFi per 06; SBC combineert WiFi met DSL (samen 29 $/mnd); SBC combineert VoIP en WiFi per 05; intr CallVantage Local door AT&T (unlimited alleen local)
· WLL: plan Nepal Telecom
· VoIP: Verizon combineert met DSL (samen 30 $/mnd); Tiscali in Ita; Sununu wants to regulate trhough new Telecoms Bill, M Powell wants no state regulation & will propose to the FCC within 1 month; Germany intros non-geografic code for VoIP (032) or geografic code, must be fit for emergency calls (112), wants ‘naked DSL’; high growth of Skype’s ‘minutes served’
· 4G: trial Aloha met Flarion (Flash-OFDM); all Flarion with Netgear (Flash-OFDM in Netgear WiFi products)
· Regulation: Sununu, McCain & Stevens aim for new Telecoms Bill in 2005 (VoIP/USF, intercarrier compensation)
· Convergence: cellular/WiFi at Cingular; DSL/WiFi at SBC; WiFi/VoIP at SBC; VoIP/WiFi at Vonage/Boingo; FlashOFDM/WiFi at Flarion/Netgear; EDGE/UMTS handset van Nokia (6630; bij TIM; eerder: World Phone van Verizon (GSM/CDMA), World Wind van China Unicom (GSM/CDMA))
· Spectrum/license auctions: 3rd GSM-license Croatie cancelled (new tender end of October); NextWave delayed 2 weeks to 260105
· Job cuts: Sprint
· Share buy-back: Telkom
· Venture capital: in Bezeq, uit Telfort
· IPO: 1e notering Hutchison Tel Int 14/10 (prijs 11.67, 1e koers 11.35, slot 11.26); 1e notering StarHub 0.95; Etisalat okt 04; plan CelTel 05 in London

Internet:
· Search: intr desktop search door Google
· Social networking: intr Lycos Circles; funding voor LinkedIn; Evita (= IAC) intr restaurant/entertainment recommendations; acq Metails.com door Buy.com; planned intro of new community by eBay
· Retail sales US sep: +1.5% (verw +0.6)
· Holiday sales US (Thanksgiving – Christmas): verw +20% tot 13.2 mrd (Forrester; 03: +31%)
· IPO: PlanetOut in handel 14/10 (prijs 9, 1e koers 9.32, slot 10.30); plan eLong (travle site China)

Media:
· Muziek: intr MSN Music in Ned; deal ASCAP (19k leden; 7.5m composities + affiliates abroad) met RMLC (12k radiostations US), incl internet streams (1.7 mrd in 8 jr)
· Digital tv: groei HDTV hoog (8.7m households eind 03, 14m eind 04, 37m 08) maar niet voldoende voor FCC deadline voor analogue switch-off (Strategy Analytics); hoge groei IPG (killer app; sales 207m in 03, 282m in 04, 1 mrd in 08, CAGR 37%), ‘big 3’ winnaars Gemstar-TV Guide, Microsoft, Tribune Media Services (In-Stat/MDR); weinig belangstelling stand-alone DVR (Jupiter)
· Ads B2B US: aug: pages +3.7% yoy, spending +4.6% yoy; YTD: pages +0.7%, spending +1.7% (ABM)
· In-game ads: start test Nielsen Ent (VNU) met Activision; Yankee verwacht hoge groei (79m in 03, 260m in 08)

Social networking is a new trend:

• Overstock.com launched Overstock.com Auctions: combining auctioning with SN.
• Buy.com bougt Metails.com: combining etail with SN.
• Lycos introduced Lycos Circles, extending to personal interests.
• Evite (IAC) added recommendations in order to increase traffic and site visit time.
• Similar offerings are from Judy's Book (which recently got funding), Idealab's Insider Pages, Yelp! and local-i.
• eBay supposedly will launch a 'new community', possibly through Yelp!

Trends 6-12 october, 2004:

Telecoms:
· LLU: plan Zwi; FCC wil geen sharing van fiber (gerucht Reuters)
· FTTH: plannen A’dam, R’dam, Den Haag, Utrecht (‘G4’) binnen 8-10 jr (TNO: ‘niet nodig’)
· WiFi: campus-wide voor Vrije Univ A’dam ism Siemens
· WiMAX: plannen AT&T (launch 06) en Covad (launch 05)
· VoIP: intr ‘Digitalphone’ door TWC (ism Sprint), eerst in NY en NJ; PCCW sues regulator omdat VoIP-provider City Telecom het PCCW-netwerk gebruikt (zou tegen telecom license ingaan); entree Office Depot nov 04; all AT&T met Linksys tbv meer mogelijkheden CallVantage
· TV, Triple Play: plan entree Wanadoo (FT) in Ned; intro ‘MSN TV 2 Internet Media Player’ door Microsoft
· 4G: Siemens neemt Flash-OFDM van Flarion in licentie tbv Eur markt (plan intro 05Q2)
· ICT: all BT; plan expansie VZ; all TI Sparkle
· Veilingen: Wit-Rusland schrapt plan voor 3e GSM (wordt state-owned), Oostenrijk veilt extra GSM-frequenties, opbrengst EUR 1m
· Allianties: gerucht (FinTimes): Starmap praat met Bouygues, Telstra, Digi.com (Mal), DTAC (Thai); FT met Nokia in R&D (eerder: FT met Motorola, China Telecom, DT)
· Job cuts: AT&T, KPN, Global Crossing
· MVNO: Tele2 in Dld, Scarlet in Ned; T-Mobile als wholesaler in US
· IPO: StarHub prijs SID 0.95, opbrengst SID 458m; prijs 1.155 mrd aand = 25.7% Hutchison Tel Int HKD 6.01 (ADS (= 15 aand): USD 11.67), opbrengst $890m, 1e handel 14/10

Internet:
· Search: intro Snap.com
· Spyware: Reps US keurt ‘Spy Act’ goed (requires opt-in, notice & consent; verboden: phishing, keystroke logging, home page hijack, ads that can’t be closed except by shutting down a computer; boete tot $3m)
· China: plannen PayPal (eBay) en Electronic Arts

Media:
· Open access STM: Springer S+B Media
· Muziek: IFPI sues 459 swappers Eur (UK, Fra, Den); geen compromis over ‘Induce Act’ (zie vorige week); Supreme Court verwerpt appel RIAA tegen verbod Appeals Court op dagvaardingsproces via ISPs
· Film: CinemaNow voegt HD-films toe en Reuters start iTV news channel, beide obv Windows XP Media
· Ads: ZenithOptimedia verhoogt verw:
o USA 04 5.5 (was 5.6), 05 4.2 (was 3.8), 06 4.8 (idem)
o Eur 04 4.7 (was 4.2), 05 4.4 (was 4.0), 06 5.1 (was 4.5)
o A-P 04 7.3 (was 6.4), 05 5.7 (was 5.4), 06 5.5 (was 5.2)
o L-A 04 4.7 (was 5.4), 05 5.2 (was 5.0), 06 6.7 (was 6.1)
o RoW 04 13.4 (was 12.9), 05 11.3 (was 11.4), 06 11.1 (was 11.0)
· IPO: plan Springer S+B Media uiterlijk 07; voorbereiding DreamWorks Animation, range 23-25, 29m aand, ticker DWA (NYSE) (verw 04Q3: rev 230-240m, oper 25-30m, vooral door Shrek 2)

Let's look at the various options in MOVIE DELIVERY.

Distinguish between:

• Theatrical, physical (DVD) and electronic/online delivery
• Push (braodcast) versus pull/on-demand
• Ordering (online) versus delivery (mail, download)
• Buy/own versus rent
• Legal versus illegal (DRM)
• Also: Hollywood's release schedule: 1. Theater. 2. Home video. 3. Rental, PpV, (S)VoD, internet. 4. PayTV, premium channels. 5. Broadcast.

Considerations:

• Consumer centric view: watch whenever, wherever, using any device
• Hollywood view: hype theatrical releases, maximize DVD sales, limit piracy and P2P downloads
• Service provider view (cable, telco, ISP): maximize VoD

Overview:

• 1. View live: Theater, airplane, boat
• 2a. Buy DVD: Blockbuster, Amazon.com, Wal-Mart
• 2b. Download to own: P2P file sharing
• 3a. Rent DVD: Blockbuster, slef-destruct DVD (Disney)
• 3a. Rent DVD, ordering through internet: Netflix, Walmart.com, Blockbuster.com
• 3b. Download temporary: Movielink, CinemaNow, Movieflix, Starz on Real, Netflix/TiVo, Akimbo, Comcast On Demand, Sony Connect on PSP
• 4. View on pay-TV: HBO, Showtime, Starz Encore
• 5a. View on broadcast TV: free-to-air, IP TV
• 5b. DVR/PVR services: TiVo, ReplayTV, NDS, proprietary cable DVRs

Addition to 2 previous post on developments in Search:

Marvel by IBM (to be released in 3-5 years):
Search queries return images, video & audio.

Another addition to the latest developments in search:

Marvel owned by IBM:
Search queries will return images, video & audio files. To be released in a 3-5 year time frame.

Virgin to Unveil Portable Music Player