Friday, October 22, 2004

3.5G (HSDPA) is being readied by Siemens for commercial launch in 05Q4.

Some specs:
  • HSDPA: High Speed Downlink Packet Access
  • Part of GSM/UMTS migration
  • Software upgrade (!)
  • Enhances spectrum efficiency and capacity
  • Delays decrease, allowing for better voice quality
  • Theoretical max through put: 14 Mbps; average: 2-3 Mbps
  • Demonstration Jan '05, trials 05Q2, commercial launch 05Q4

Addition to previous entry on Shrinking Inventory:

  • DVR skipping
  • Remote control zapping

  • Reduction of commercial time per hour to drive value and improve listener experience

Wednesday, October 20, 2004

Advertising inventory is under attack from two sides:
Internet: links drives up prices
TV: time-shifted watching (through VDRs) reduces the 30s-commercials market

Inventory on the other hand is growing:
Video games:
  • in-game advertising, as a form of product placement that has already emerged form infancy stages. Both Massive and inGamePartners provide services. Nielsen Entertainment trials a metering service in cooperation with Activision (for inventory) and Chrysler (for displaying the Jeep brand).
  • Extending the reach through Google SMS (search from mobile handsets).
  • Google Desktop (increase inventory to include PC hard drives) and Enterprise Search (to include intranets).
  • Personalisation (such as MyYahoo!) en localisation (Yahoo! Local, Google Local) to drive the value.
  • Also: an enhanced search experience. Specifically: MSN will debut a new search engine within the next few months, Vivisimo introduced Clusty and Idealab launched Google, Yahoo! and Ask Jeeves continuously improve their search engines.
  • Extending search databases by including books & magazines (Google Print, Amazon Search Inside the Book) and science (HighBeam).
  • Advertsing in e-mail (e.g. Google's Gmail) and along web logs (Google's Blogger service).
There does not seem to be a shortage of inventory, but to tap all the above requires capex and willingness to take risks.

Trends 13-19 september 2004:

· FTTH, PLC: steun van FCC (FTTN max 500 feet)
· Broadband Ned: Impulscommissie adviseert overheidsinvestering 340m (Garantiefonds 260m in 15 jr voor infra (techniek-agnostisch); Stimuleringsfonds 80m in 4 jr voor projecten in sectoren (zorg, onderwijs, mobiliteit, veiligheid))
· DSL: uitbr dekking Verizon (26 staten + DC)
· Triple Play: intr Livebox doo Wanadoo in Ned
· IP TV: plan Tiscali Ita
· LLU: intr 12 Mbps door Tiscali Ita
· WiFi: Cingular breidt dekking uit door samenw met SBC’s WiFi per 06; SBC combineert WiFi met DSL (samen 29 $/mnd); SBC combineert VoIP en WiFi per 05; intr CallVantage Local door AT&T (unlimited alleen local)
· WLL: plan Nepal Telecom
· VoIP: Verizon combineert met DSL (samen 30 $/mnd); Tiscali in Ita; Sununu wants to regulate trhough new Telecoms Bill, M Powell wants no state regulation & will propose to the FCC within 1 month; Germany intros non-geografic code for VoIP (032) or geografic code, must be fit for emergency calls (112), wants ‘naked DSL’; high growth of Skype’s ‘minutes served’
· 4G: trial Aloha met Flarion (Flash-OFDM); all Flarion with Netgear (Flash-OFDM in Netgear WiFi products)
· Regulation: Sununu, McCain & Stevens aim for new Telecoms Bill in 2005 (VoIP/USF, intercarrier compensation)
· Convergence: cellular/WiFi at Cingular; DSL/WiFi at SBC; WiFi/VoIP at SBC; VoIP/WiFi at Vonage/Boingo; FlashOFDM/WiFi at Flarion/Netgear; EDGE/UMTS handset van Nokia (6630; bij TIM; eerder: World Phone van Verizon (GSM/CDMA), World Wind van China Unicom (GSM/CDMA))
· Spectrum/license auctions: 3rd GSM-license Croatie cancelled (new tender end of October); NextWave delayed 2 weeks to 260105
· Job cuts: Sprint
· Share buy-back: Telkom
· Venture capital: in Bezeq, uit Telfort
· IPO: 1e notering Hutchison Tel Int 14/10 (prijs 11.67, 1e koers 11.35, slot 11.26); 1e notering StarHub 0.95; Etisalat okt 04; plan CelTel 05 in London

· Search: intr desktop search door Google
· Social networking: intr Lycos Circles; funding voor LinkedIn; Evita (= IAC) intr restaurant/entertainment recommendations; acq door; planned intro of new community by eBay
· Retail sales US sep: +1.5% (verw +0.6)
· Holiday sales US (Thanksgiving – Christmas): verw +20% tot 13.2 mrd (Forrester; 03: +31%)
· IPO: PlanetOut in handel 14/10 (prijs 9, 1e koers 9.32, slot 10.30); plan eLong (travle site China)

· Muziek: intr MSN Music in Ned; deal ASCAP (19k leden; 7.5m composities + affiliates abroad) met RMLC (12k radiostations US), incl internet streams (1.7 mrd in 8 jr)
· Digital tv: groei HDTV hoog (8.7m households eind 03, 14m eind 04, 37m 08) maar niet voldoende voor FCC deadline voor analogue switch-off (Strategy Analytics); hoge groei IPG (killer app; sales 207m in 03, 282m in 04, 1 mrd in 08, CAGR 37%), ‘big 3’ winnaars Gemstar-TV Guide, Microsoft, Tribune Media Services (In-Stat/MDR); weinig belangstelling stand-alone DVR (Jupiter)
· Ads B2B US: aug: pages +3.7% yoy, spending +4.6% yoy; YTD: pages +0.7%, spending +1.7% (ABM)
· In-game ads: start test Nielsen Ent (VNU) met Activision; Yankee verwacht hoge groei (79m in 03, 260m in 08)

Social networking is a new trend:
  • launched Auctions: combining auctioning with SN.
  • bougt combining etail with SN.
  • Lycos introduced Lycos Circles, extending to personal interests.
  • Evite (IAC) added recommendations in order to increase traffic and site visit time.
  • Similar offerings are from Judy's Book (which recently got funding), Idealab's Insider Pages, Yelp! and local-i.
  • eBay supposedly will launch a 'new community', possibly through Yelp!

Wednesday, October 13, 2004

Trends 6-12 october, 2004:

· LLU: plan Zwi; FCC wil geen sharing van fiber (gerucht Reuters)
· FTTH: plannen A’dam, R’dam, Den Haag, Utrecht (‘G4’) binnen 8-10 jr (TNO: ‘niet nodig’)
· WiFi: campus-wide voor Vrije Univ A’dam ism Siemens
· WiMAX: plannen AT&T (launch 06) en Covad (launch 05)
· VoIP: intr ‘Digitalphone’ door TWC (ism Sprint), eerst in NY en NJ; PCCW sues regulator omdat VoIP-provider City Telecom het PCCW-netwerk gebruikt (zou tegen telecom license ingaan); entree Office Depot nov 04; all AT&T met Linksys tbv meer mogelijkheden CallVantage
· TV, Triple Play: plan entree Wanadoo (FT) in Ned; intro ‘MSN TV 2 Internet Media Player’ door Microsoft
· 4G: Siemens neemt Flash-OFDM van Flarion in licentie tbv Eur markt (plan intro 05Q2)
· ICT: all BT; plan expansie VZ; all TI Sparkle
· Veilingen: Wit-Rusland schrapt plan voor 3e GSM (wordt state-owned), Oostenrijk veilt extra GSM-frequenties, opbrengst EUR 1m
· Allianties: gerucht (FinTimes): Starmap praat met Bouygues, Telstra, (Mal), DTAC (Thai); FT met Nokia in R&D (eerder: FT met Motorola, China Telecom, DT)
· Job cuts: AT&T, KPN, Global Crossing
· MVNO: Tele2 in Dld, Scarlet in Ned; T-Mobile als wholesaler in US
· IPO: StarHub prijs SID 0.95, opbrengst SID 458m; prijs 1.155 mrd aand = 25.7% Hutchison Tel Int HKD 6.01 (ADS (= 15 aand): USD 11.67), opbrengst $890m, 1e handel 14/10

· Search: intro
· Spyware: Reps US keurt ‘Spy Act’ goed (requires opt-in, notice & consent; verboden: phishing, keystroke logging, home page hijack, ads that can’t be closed except by shutting down a computer; boete tot $3m)
· China: plannen PayPal (eBay) en Electronic Arts

· Open access STM: Springer S+B Media
· Muziek: IFPI sues 459 swappers Eur (UK, Fra, Den); geen compromis over ‘Induce Act’ (zie vorige week); Supreme Court verwerpt appel RIAA tegen verbod Appeals Court op dagvaardingsproces via ISPs
· Film: CinemaNow voegt HD-films toe en Reuters start iTV news channel, beide obv Windows XP Media
· Ads: ZenithOptimedia verhoogt verw:
o USA 04 5.5 (was 5.6), 05 4.2 (was 3.8), 06 4.8 (idem)
o Eur 04 4.7 (was 4.2), 05 4.4 (was 4.0), 06 5.1 (was 4.5)
o A-P 04 7.3 (was 6.4), 05 5.7 (was 5.4), 06 5.5 (was 5.2)
o L-A 04 4.7 (was 5.4), 05 5.2 (was 5.0), 06 6.7 (was 6.1)
o RoW 04 13.4 (was 12.9), 05 11.3 (was 11.4), 06 11.1 (was 11.0)
· IPO: plan Springer S+B Media uiterlijk 07; voorbereiding DreamWorks Animation, range 23-25, 29m aand, ticker DWA (NYSE) (verw 04Q3: rev 230-240m, oper 25-30m, vooral door Shrek 2)

Tuesday, October 12, 2004

Let's look at the various options in MOVIE DELIVERY.

Distinguish between:
  • Theatrical, physical (DVD) and electronic/online delivery
  • Push (braodcast) versus pull/on-demand
  • Ordering (online) versus delivery (mail, download)
  • Buy/own versus rent
  • Legal versus illegal (DRM)
  • Also: Hollywood's release schedule: 1. Theater. 2. Home video. 3. Rental, PpV, (S)VoD, internet. 4. PayTV, premium channels. 5. Broadcast.
  • Consumer centric view: watch whenever, wherever, using any device
  • Hollywood view: hype theatrical releases, maximize DVD sales, limit piracy and P2P downloads
  • Service provider view (cable, telco, ISP): maximize VoD
  • 1. View live: Theater, airplane, boat
  • 2a. Buy DVD: Blockbuster,, Wal-Mart
  • 2b. Download to own: P2P file sharing
  • 3a. Rent DVD: Blockbuster, slef-destruct DVD (Disney)
  • 3a. Rent DVD, ordering through internet: Netflix,,
  • 3b. Download temporary: Movielink, CinemaNow, Movieflix, Starz on Real, Netflix/TiVo, Akimbo, Comcast On Demand, Sony Connect on PSP
  • 4. View on pay-TV: HBO, Showtime, Starz Encore
  • 5a. View on broadcast TV: free-to-air, IP TV
  • 5b. DVR/PVR services: TiVo, ReplayTV, NDS, proprietary cable DVRs

Addition to 2 previous post on developments in Search:

Marvel by IBM (to be released in 3-5 years):
Search queries return images, video & audio.

Another addition to the latest developments in search:

Marvel owned by IBM:
Search queries will return images, video & audio files. To be released in a 3-5 year time frame.

Virgin to Unveil Portable Music Player

Monday, October 11, 2004

After Howard Stern & Co defected to Sirius, a takeover of the latter by Viacom seems not unlikely.
The Washington Post runs a comparison of Sirius and XM:

XM Satellite Radio:
launched november 2001, on 2 satellites, in-car deal with GM.
10 $/mo, 2.5m subs as of 04Q2.
content featuring Bob Edwards (formerly NPR) and Opie & Anthony.

Sirius Satellite Radio:
launched 2002, on 3 satellites, in-car deals with Ford, DaimlerChrysler, BMW.
13 $/mo, 0.6m subs as of 04Q2.
content featuring sports (NBA, NHL) and Howard Stren (as of 2006)

Friday, October 08, 2004

In addition to yesterday's post on search: by Google:
Personalisation (in beta as of March 29, '04) through a user profile consisting of a set of preferences. by Google:
Localisation through a double search box, the second for location details (US only). by Yahoo!:
Introduced October 3rd, after having been in beta since August 3rd. Works about the same way. by Yahoo!:
Yahoo!'s personalisation effort. Recently restiled, RSS-feeds added. (Google is rumored to be working on adding an Atom feed for Gmail users). owned by Idealab:
Launched October 6. Merges search (from LookSmart, Gigablast, Open Directory and Snap) with comparison shopping (from Ranking based on 'Snap Rank' (by user satisfaction (measured by conversion rate), site popularity, amount of paying advertisers).

And then there is the other stuff:
JotSpot (Joe Kraus and Graham Spencer) uses wiki technology to consolidate & share information.
Blinkx enables control & management of desktop information (including e-mail and web documents).
MSN recruted bloggers for a 2-day event ('Search Champs') to test new search features.

Thursday, October 07, 2004

Trends 29 sep - 5 oct 2004:

· LLU: plan entrĂ©e BT Retail
· VoIP: AT&T verlaagt tarief CallVantage 35>30 $/mnd, Vonage 30>25; intro door TI (‘Alice Mia’); plan intro door Telenor binnen 2 jr; intro ‘Friendster Phone’ obv GloPhone van Voiceglo; intro free VoIP tussen subs door EarthLink
· TV-o-ADSL2: plan intro door Telenor binnen 2 jr
· Verzadiging mobiel: penetratie Noorwegen (96%) en Portugal (102%) rond 100%
· EDGE: intro door AirTel in Mumbai (India)
· P2T: intro door Chungwa in Taiwan; plan intro door T-Mobile eind 04 in Dld
· Convergence: unified messaging door SBC (voice/email; fixed/wireless/fax) (vorige ‘iobi’ van VZ: comms mgt)
· Uitkering: verhoging pay-out door Telecom NZ
· M&A: gerucht Vodafone en Hutchison geinteresseerd in Telsim (Turkije)
· IPO: plan Hutchison India; Hutchison Telecom verkleint omvang (van 975-1130m naar 890-1040m) en prijs (van 6.52-7.04 naar 6.01-7.04)

· Search: local (from beta) & personal (in beta) van Yahoo!; intro Clusty door Vivisimo
· Social networking: Friendster in VoIP
· IPO: 1e notering 51job 29/9 (prijs 14, open 18.98, slot 21.15)

· Muziek/film: bill US passes House: 3 jr gevangenis (p2p: meer dan 1000 files; movies: camera in theater); ‘Inducing Infringement of Copyrights’ Act (anyone who induces others to reproduce copyrighted material; investrors, advisers, reviewers, nonprofits uitgesloten) 30/9 naar senate judiciary committee; RIAA sues nog 762 (totaal 5400)
· Muziek: 04H1 worldwide sales -1.3% (slowest in 4 yr), unit sales +1.7%, US sales +3.9%, Eur sales -7.7%, Latam sales +24%, Austr -9%, DVD-music sales +20% (IFPI); intro mMode Music Store door AT&T Wireless ism Loudeye en Microsoft
· Movie delivery: 20th Century Fox in Blu-ray Disc Ass, maar blijft ook samenwerken met HD-DVD
· VoD: Comcast expandeert, intr door NTL 05Q1
· Radio: ads blijft zwak (Infinity, Clear Channel)

An exploding market: TV DVDs:
550 titles during all of 2003, over 500 in 2004 so far.
See this MediaPost Story.

Search has taken a few turns lately: owned by Telstra:
Yellow pages site: localised search by crawling the web but also,, and owned by Ask Jeeves:
Save results, limit the number of sites to be searched. No registration required. Desktop search to be released this month (Tukaroo was bought in June). owned by
Personalisation by allowing results to be saved. Results from Google (web and images), Amazon (Search inside the book), IMDb (Amazon), (reference) and also from a user's history, bookmarks and diary. The 'Discover' feature suggests pages based on one's history. Also: registered users receive a 1.57% (or half pi) discount on Amazon. Google AdWords supplies ads. acquired by LookSmart:
Save search results, that can later be searched and shared. owned by Vivisimo:
Meta search, clustering results, tabbing sources. Also localalised search. The 'details' link reveals the searched databases. Using the 'preview' (magnifying glass) link the result is displayed within the results page.

Most scientists seam to agree with Amazon's Udi Manber: "We're in the Wright brothers phase of search technology." Not everybody agrees showever.