Monday, December 14, 2009

Will KPN pull out a wild card?

It's the time of year to make predictions. On December 15, KPN is set to clarify its FTTx Roadmap, but it doesn't look like there will be any fireworks. Here are a few possible outcomes that don't seem to be on anybody's cards:
  • MAYBE they will accelarete FTTH. That would be a u-turn to previous statements, and construction capacity (currently at an annual run rate of 250k homes per annum) doesn't have much room to grow.
  • MAYBE they will bet the farm on VDSL2. It is what they have announced, but it could be more than just an interim strategy (in theory).
  • MAYBE have an acquisition to report. BBned is for sale and would add a handsome business provider (the wholesale provider would lose all its customers no doubt, and the retail business may have to be sold on). Still, they could replace BBned on a couple of FTTH networks.
  • MAYBE they have a retail partnership to report. Perhaps Online Breedband is finally ready to live up to its promises (made in April). Or Tele2. But the real big fish would be Ziggo. Imagine Ziggo becoming an operator/RSP on the Reggefiber FTTH networks! (UPC would be a harder nut to crack - they suffer from a severe case of incumbofobia).
  • MAYBE they have a content deal up their sleeve. Connected TV is all the rage. This would enhance the triple play.
UPDATE But the biggest surprise would be:
  • MAYBE there will be a switch to GPON technology (in the larger cities), in order to be able to re-use VDSL investments.

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