Thursday, January 07, 2010

Adoption curves of innovations

How long does it take for dinosaurs to die? Some will never do, because evolutions are not always meant to replace older incarnations. Adoption curves (diffusion of innovations) for new technologies are equally interesting. Any suggestions welcome.
  • Copper/HFC > fiber
  • Narrowband > broadband > ultrabroadband
  • 1G > 2G > 3G > 4G
  • Handset > smartphone > smartbook
  • Analogue TV > digital TV
  • Broadcast > non-linear TV
  • SD > HD > 3DHD
  • Newspaper/book > e-reader
  • LP/VHS > DAT > CDi > CD/DVD > digital locker
Commonalities: digital, IP, fiber-optics, cloud

1 comment:

Pauline Rigby said...

Most of the technologies in your list will be superceded, eventually, except one.

I don't think books will ever die. The batteries never run out, it's easier on the eyes to read a non-illuminated screen, there is no learning curve to use one, and there are no digital rights management nightmares - when I buy a book, I know it's mine to keep.