- Consumer Mobile organic revenue improved to -9.0% but still in the same magnitude it has been since 12Q1. EBITDA has been going down rapidly in the last 4 quarters and this will probably continue for one more quarter.
- Consumer Residential organic revenue growth has been negative for 2 quarters and it looks like this could continue. EBITDA growth has been solid, but that may now drop off.
- A big issue is competition on the fixed-line market. The Ziggo/UPC merger was approved. It will be followed by ACM's decision on KPN/Reggefiber and regulation of the market until 2018. Europe is now moving toward fixed-voice deregulation, but broadband is a different matter. Vodafone appears to have found its strategy for NL: resale & unbundling. It remains to be seen what Tele2 is up to. Potentially, Vodafone could allow Tele2 access to its unbundled network. Continued unbundling may be a condition for approval of the Reggefiber deal, but then what about cable regulation? And beneath all that is the question: is unbundling good (more sales power, high-margin wholesale revenues, Vodafone not just a competitor but a partner as well) or bad (the message KPN puts forward to the regulator) for KPN?
- On the TV market the question is what the impact of Netflix is. Are consumers canceling pay-TV yet? What is happening to VOD revenues?
- On the mobile market, much depends on Tele2 and when it will launch its LTE network.
- John van Vianen, head of Corporate Market, to exit at the end of 2014. No new job and no successor named.
- America Movil once more reduced its stake, now by 1.2 pp to 21.4%. Above 20% they retain the right to appoint 2 members of the Supervisory Board.
- Results Tele2: not impressive. Mobile subs growth slowing. Tele2 hosts an analyst briefing December 12, presumably to launch the Dutch LTE network.
- Eurofiber was put up for sale by ite PE owner Doughty Hanson. CIF, BT and Zayo may be candidates.
Conclusions: pressure remains in the mobile market (Tele2 launch) and in the business market (Eurofiber takeover, Ziggo/UPC merger).