Consumer clouds and lockers: implications for operators

What is cloud computing?

• Internet-based computing, remote computing
• Often subscription-based or free
• On demand
• Managed by third-party
• Optional: automatic updates/back-ups, synchronisation across devices

OTT players (B2C):

• Apple: iCloud, iTunes, iPhone, iPod, iPad.
• Google: Android, Chrome, Chrome OS, Chromebook, Google Music, Gmail, Google Docs, Google Apps, YouTube, Picasa, Google Fiber, cloud connect for Microsoft Office.
• Microsoft: Office 365, Lync, SkyDrive, Azure.
• Amazon: Cloud Drive, Cloud Player, Kindle, Amazon Web Services.
• Yahoo!: Yahoo! Mail, Flickr.

Services (B2C):

• Any file: Amazon Cloud Drive, Box.net
• Music: Spotify, Google Music (beta), Apple iCloud
• Photos: Flickr
• Video: Netflix, YouTube, Uitzendinggemist, BBC iPlayer, UltraViolet
• Presentations: SlideShare, SlideRocket
• Social networking: Facebook, LinkedIn, Hyves
• OS (turn iPad or Chromebook into fully-fledged computer): Chrome OS
• Office: Microsoft Office 365, Google Docs/Apps, Zoho
• Individual file storage (for sharing): RapidShare, MegaUpload, zShare
• Back-up, remote access: Dropbox, Mozy, Carbonite

Telco acquisitions (B2B), bringing data centers and services to the table:

• NTT Com: Dimension Data, Frontline Systems
• Verizon: Terremark
• CenturyLink: Savvis
• Windstream: Hosted Solutions
• TDS: Visi
• Cincinatti Bell: CyrusOne
• Time Warner Cable: NaviSite
• Telefonica: Acens Technologies

Operator initiatives (B2B):

• Netflix is a big AWS (Amazon) customer for its Watch Instantly streaming service.
• KPN launches SME Workspace: software and services from KPN CyberCenters at 40 EUR/employee/month (May 31 2011).
• Telstra to invest AUD 800m over 5 years; 1 new datacenter, modernising existing, building new apps and a management portal (June 16 2011).

Developer platforms (B2B):

• Salesforce.com: Force.com
• VMware: Cloud Foundry
• Microsoft: Azure
• Amazon: BeanStalk
• Google: App Engine

Computer vs. cloud:

• As the computer/files/hard disks are cut out of the ecosystem and the cloud replaces them: a. connectivity becomes more important, and b. the computer ecosystem (Microsoft, Intel) stands to lose.

Infrastructure and connectivity:

• Syncing/back-ups/updates will be done over WiFi, so wireless will not be burdened (for now). WiFi becomes even more important. Ultimately, WiFi implies fiber.
• Other network elements (CDN's, data centers, servers) may also become more important. However, Apple (and Google) are using their own private networks.
• Operators have control over the last mile, but Apple (and Google) may control all the other network elements. Next battlegrounds: WiFi, FTTH (as in Google Fiber).
• Amazon Web Services provides cloud services to smaller players.
• Hosting, co-location, housing.

Data:

• Enormous lock-in for Apple (and Google) will work in their favour. They control the subscriber's data. Will operators have an answer and provide these services: put all your data in our cloud, with automatic back-up and syncing?
• Apple's system is closed: plays on iOS devices only.
• Apple and Google are going OTT, while operators have their own managed and secure infrastructure.
• Is email (Hotmail, Yahoo! Mail, Gmail) the basis of developing a cloud strategy?

Other players:

• Do cloud-based players such as Facebook, Dropbox, Zoho, Flickr, SlideRocket, Netflix, Evernote have a future?
• Ericsson is in a way the biggest operator in the world, through its managed services. They can be a partner for telcos, which can then focus on sales & marketing.
• Is UltraViolet still relevant? It's open, runs anywhere.

General:

• Cloud negatives: security (privacy), reliability (access), latency. Also: digital media fragmentation across multiple clouds and devices.
• Cloud positives: better functionality and flexibility, faster and automatic updates (everything as a service), cost savings (lower capex/opex), shift from capex (hardware) to opex (subscription).

Benefits for consumers:

• Lower cost (SaaS, Slim PC)
• Buy once, play anywhere (streaming)
• Sync across devices
• Share among family members

What is the future role of a telco?

• Infrastructure? Last mile (fixed and wireless) is too expensive to replicate
• Cloud computing? Local and managed datacenters offer better security.
• Services, sales & marketing? OTT players are building direct-to-consumer relationships, with credit card billing.
• Telcos are squeezed: competition, regulation, device manufacturers, OTT players.

Apple iCloud limitations:

• iOS devices only.
• No TV/video.
• WiFi only.
• Video calls (FaceTime) limited to on-net over WiFi.