Trends 6-12 october, 2004:

Telecoms:
· LLU: plan Zwi; FCC wil geen sharing van fiber (gerucht Reuters)
· FTTH: plannen A’dam, R’dam, Den Haag, Utrecht (‘G4’) binnen 8-10 jr (TNO: ‘niet nodig’)
· WiFi: campus-wide voor Vrije Univ A’dam ism Siemens
· WiMAX: plannen AT&T (launch 06) en Covad (launch 05)
· VoIP: intr ‘Digitalphone’ door TWC (ism Sprint), eerst in NY en NJ; PCCW sues regulator omdat VoIP-provider City Telecom het PCCW-netwerk gebruikt (zou tegen telecom license ingaan); entree Office Depot nov 04; all AT&T met Linksys tbv meer mogelijkheden CallVantage
· TV, Triple Play: plan entree Wanadoo (FT) in Ned; intro ‘MSN TV 2 Internet Media Player’ door Microsoft
· 4G: Siemens neemt Flash-OFDM van Flarion in licentie tbv Eur markt (plan intro 05Q2)
· ICT: all BT; plan expansie VZ; all TI Sparkle
· Veilingen: Wit-Rusland schrapt plan voor 3e GSM (wordt state-owned), Oostenrijk veilt extra GSM-frequenties, opbrengst EUR 1m
· Allianties: gerucht (FinTimes): Starmap praat met Bouygues, Telstra, Digi.com (Mal), DTAC (Thai); FT met Nokia in R&D (eerder: FT met Motorola, China Telecom, DT)
· Job cuts: AT&T, KPN, Global Crossing
· MVNO: Tele2 in Dld, Scarlet in Ned; T-Mobile als wholesaler in US
· IPO: StarHub prijs SID 0.95, opbrengst SID 458m; prijs 1.155 mrd aand = 25.7% Hutchison Tel Int HKD 6.01 (ADS (= 15 aand): USD 11.67), opbrengst $890m, 1e handel 14/10

Internet:
· Search: intro Snap.com
· Spyware: Reps US keurt ‘Spy Act’ goed (requires opt-in, notice & consent; verboden: phishing, keystroke logging, home page hijack, ads that can’t be closed except by shutting down a computer; boete tot $3m)
· China: plannen PayPal (eBay) en Electronic Arts

Media:
· Open access STM: Springer S+B Media
· Muziek: IFPI sues 459 swappers Eur (UK, Fra, Den); geen compromis over ‘Induce Act’ (zie vorige week); Supreme Court verwerpt appel RIAA tegen verbod Appeals Court op dagvaardingsproces via ISPs
· Film: CinemaNow voegt HD-films toe en Reuters start iTV news channel, beide obv Windows XP Media
· Ads: ZenithOptimedia verhoogt verw:
o USA 04 5.5 (was 5.6), 05 4.2 (was 3.8), 06 4.8 (idem)
o Eur 04 4.7 (was 4.2), 05 4.4 (was 4.0), 06 5.1 (was 4.5)
o A-P 04 7.3 (was 6.4), 05 5.7 (was 5.4), 06 5.5 (was 5.2)
o L-A 04 4.7 (was 5.4), 05 5.2 (was 5.0), 06 6.7 (was 6.1)
o RoW 04 13.4 (was 12.9), 05 11.3 (was 11.4), 06 11.1 (was 11.0)
· IPO: plan Springer S+B Media uiterlijk 07; voorbereiding DreamWorks Animation, range 23-25, 29m aand, ticker DWA (NYSE) (verw 04Q3: rev 230-240m, oper 25-30m, vooral door Shrek 2)

Let's look at the various options in MOVIE DELIVERY.

Distinguish between:

• Theatrical, physical (DVD) and electronic/online delivery
• Push (braodcast) versus pull/on-demand
• Ordering (online) versus delivery (mail, download)
• Buy/own versus rent
• Legal versus illegal (DRM)
• Also: Hollywood's release schedule: 1. Theater. 2. Home video. 3. Rental, PpV, (S)VoD, internet. 4. PayTV, premium channels. 5. Broadcast.

Considerations:

• Consumer centric view: watch whenever, wherever, using any device
• Hollywood view: hype theatrical releases, maximize DVD sales, limit piracy and P2P downloads
• Service provider view (cable, telco, ISP): maximize VoD

Overview:

• 1. View live: Theater, airplane, boat
• 2a. Buy DVD: Blockbuster, Amazon.com, Wal-Mart
• 2b. Download to own: P2P file sharing
• 3a. Rent DVD: Blockbuster, slef-destruct DVD (Disney)
• 3a. Rent DVD, ordering through internet: Netflix, Walmart.com, Blockbuster.com
• 3b. Download temporary: Movielink, CinemaNow, Movieflix, Starz on Real, Netflix/TiVo, Akimbo, Comcast On Demand, Sony Connect on PSP
• 4. View on pay-TV: HBO, Showtime, Starz Encore
• 5a. View on broadcast TV: free-to-air, IP TV
• 5b. DVR/PVR services: TiVo, ReplayTV, NDS, proprietary cable DVRs

Addition to 2 previous post on developments in Search:

Marvel by IBM (to be released in 3-5 years):
Search queries return images, video & audio.

Another addition to the latest developments in search:

Marvel owned by IBM:
Search queries will return images, video & audio files. To be released in a 3-5 year time frame.

Virgin to Unveil Portable Music Player

After Howard Stern & Co defected to Sirius, a takeover of the latter by Viacom seems not unlikely.
The Washington Post runs a comparison of Sirius and XM: http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A10953-2004Oct6?language=printer

XM Satellite Radio:
launched november 2001, on 2 satellites, in-car deal with GM.
10 $/mo, 2.5m subs as of 04Q2.
content featuring Bob Edwards (formerly NPR) and Opie & Anthony.

Sirius Satellite Radio:
launched 2002, on 3 satellites, in-car deals with Ford, DaimlerChrysler, BMW.
13 $/mo, 0.6m subs as of 04Q2.
content featuring sports (NBA, NHL) and Howard Stren (as of 2006)

In addition to yesterday's post on search:

http://labs.google.com/personalized by Google:
Personalisation (in beta as of March 29, '04) through a user profile consisting of a set of preferences.

http://local.google.com/lochp by Google:
Localisation through a double search box, the second for location details (US only).

http://local.yahoo.com/ by Yahoo!:
Introduced October 3rd, after having been in beta since August 3rd. Works about the same way.

http://my.yahoo.com by Yahoo!:
Yahoo!'s personalisation effort. Recently restiled, RSS-feeds added. (Google is rumored to be working on adding an Atom feed for Gmail users).

www.snap.com owned by Idealab:
Launched October 6. Merges search (from LookSmart, Gigablast, Open Directory and Snap) with comparison shopping (from Smarter.com). Ranking based on 'Snap Rank' (by user satisfaction (measured by conversion rate), site popularity, amount of paying advertisers).

And then there is the other stuff:
JotSpot (Joe Kraus and Graham Spencer) uses wiki technology to consolidate & share information.
Blinkx enables control & management of desktop information (including e-mail and web documents).
MSN recruted bloggers for a 2-day event ('Search Champs') to test new search features.

Trends 29 sep - 5 oct 2004:

Telecom:
· LLU: plan entrée BT Retail
· VoIP: AT&T verlaagt tarief CallVantage 35>30 $/mnd, Vonage 30>25; intro door TI (‘Alice Mia’); plan intro door Telenor binnen 2 jr; intro ‘Friendster Phone’ obv GloPhone van Voiceglo; intro free VoIP tussen subs door EarthLink
· TV-o-ADSL2: plan intro door Telenor binnen 2 jr
· Verzadiging mobiel: penetratie Noorwegen (96%) en Portugal (102%) rond 100%
· EDGE: intro door AirTel in Mumbai (India)
· P2T: intro door Chungwa in Taiwan; plan intro door T-Mobile eind 04 in Dld
· Convergence: unified messaging door SBC (voice/email; fixed/wireless/fax) (vorige ‘iobi’ van VZ: comms mgt)
· Uitkering: verhoging pay-out door Telecom NZ
· M&A: gerucht Vodafone en Hutchison geinteresseerd in Telsim (Turkije)
· IPO: plan Hutchison India; Hutchison Telecom verkleint omvang (van 975-1130m naar 890-1040m) en prijs (van 6.52-7.04 naar 6.01-7.04)

Internet:
· Search: local (from beta) & personal (in beta) van Yahoo!; intro Clusty door Vivisimo
· Social networking: Friendster in VoIP
· IPO: 1e notering 51job 29/9 (prijs 14, open 18.98, slot 21.15)

Media:
· Muziek/film: bill US passes House: 3 jr gevangenis (p2p: meer dan 1000 files; movies: camera in theater); ‘Inducing Infringement of Copyrights’ Act (anyone who induces others to reproduce copyrighted material; investrors, advisers, reviewers, nonprofits uitgesloten) 30/9 naar senate judiciary committee; RIAA sues nog 762 (totaal 5400)
· Muziek: 04H1 worldwide sales -1.3% (slowest in 4 yr), unit sales +1.7%, US sales +3.9%, Eur sales -7.7%, Latam sales +24%, Austr -9%, DVD-music sales +20% (IFPI); intro mMode Music Store door AT&T Wireless ism Loudeye en Microsoft
· Movie delivery: 20th Century Fox in Blu-ray Disc Ass, maar blijft ook samenwerken met HD-DVD
· VoD: Comcast expandeert, intr door NTL 05Q1
· Radio: ads blijft zwak (Infinity, Clear Channel)

An exploding market: TV DVDs:
550 titles during all of 2003, over 500 in 2004 so far.
See this MediaPost Story. http://www.mediapost.com/PrintFriend.cfm?articleId=271812

Search has taken a few turns lately:

www.sensis.com.au owned by Telstra:
Yellow pages site: localised search by crawling the web but also citysearch.com.au, whereis.com.au, yellowpages.com.au and whitepages.com.au.

www.ask.com owned by Ask Jeeves:
Save results, limit the number of sites to be searched. No registration required. Desktop search to be released this month (Tukaroo was bought in June).

www.a9.com owned by Amazon.com:
Personalisation by allowing results to be saved. Results from Google (web and images), Amazon (Search inside the book), IMDb (Amazon), GuruNet.com (reference) and also from a user's history, bookmarks and diary. The 'Discover' feature suggests pages based on one's history. Also: registered users receive a 1.57% (or half pi) discount on Amazon. Google AdWords supplies ads.

www.furl.net acquired by LookSmart:
Save search results, that can later be searched and shared.

www.clusty.com owned by Vivisimo:
Meta search, clustering results, tabbing sources. Also localalised search. The 'details' link reveals the searched databases. Using the 'preview' (magnifying glass) link the result is displayed within the results page.

Most scientists seam to agree with Amazon's Udi Manber: "We're in the Wright brothers phase of search technology." Not everybody agrees showever.