VNU's increasing deal spread to IMS

Reuters reports that investors are increasingly worried over the planned IMS Health acquisition. As you can see below, the deal spread fell in the first few weeks from $2.16 to $0.88, but has since jumped to $2.35.
VNU doesn't exactly have a good reputation when it comes to integrating acquisitions and extracting synergies from them. As part of the $5.8 bn take-over price is to be payed in cash, earnings will dilute. Future EPS might possibly benefit more from a large-scale share buy-back.

Still, most investors didn't seem to think VNU overpays (the AGM is only in January of 2006). And VNU is actually stepping up its efforts when it comes to realising synergies. I would assume that VNU will end up owning IMS.

date vnu ims offer delta
08/07/2005 27.80 25.89 28.05 2.16
11/07/2005 26.99 26.50 27.56 1.06
12/07/2005 27.50 26.76 27.86 1.10
13/07/2005 27.90 26.83 28.10 1.27
14/07/2005 28.42 27.19 28.42 1.23
15/07/2005 28.18 27.19 28.27 1.08
18/07/2005 28.36 27.03 28.38 1.35
19/07/2005 28.30 27.15 28.35 1.20
20/07/2005 27.97 27.04 28.15 1.11
21/07/2005 28.63 27.66 28.54 0.88
22/07/2005 28.36 27.31 28.38 1.07
25/07/2005 28.50 27.14 28.47 1.33
26/07/2005 28.55 27.16 28.50 1.34
27/07/2005 28.65 27.38 28.56 1.18
28/07/2005 28.76 27.51 28.62 1.11
29/07/2005 28.74 27.23 28.61 1.38
01/08/2005 29.13 27.65 28.85 1.20
02/08/2005 28.93 27.60 28.73 1.13
03/08/2005 29.08 27.80 28.82 1.02
04/08/2005 28.87 27.53 28.69 1.16
05/08/2005 28.56 27.35 28.51 1.16
08/08/2005 28.86 27.55 28.69 1.14
09/08/2005 29.69 27.89 29.19 1.30
10/08/2005 30.95 28.16 29.95 1.79
11/08/2005 31.62 28.47 30.36 1.89
12/08/2005 31.76 28.27 30.44 2.17
15/08/2005 31.31 28.00 30.17 2.17
16/08/2005 31.48 27.90 30.27 2.37
17/08/2005 31.15 27.52 30.07 2.55
18/08/2005 30.56 27.36 29.71 2.35
(all prices in $)