Wednesday, December 05, 2007

Teleworking: traffic growth to stay at the 100% level

In this release Foundry Networks announces a deal with the Amsterdam Internet Exchange (AMS-IX). In case you didn't know, it's the largest in the world.
Some interesting info in the release:
  • By late October a new record was set: 350 GB/s. AMS-IX expects to maintain its c. 100% growth rate and get near the 1 Tb/s threshold by the end of 2008. By the way, in the AMS-IX stats it now appears that the new record is 371 Gb/s.
  • All the usual suspects are 'blamed': video, gaming, streaming. Looking ahead, AMS-IX points to HD, and specifically to " the maturation of children of the digital revolution (...). As they embark in their professional careers, they are already accustomed to being online all the time, especially with the new Web 2.0 applications. We will potentially see traffic patterns shift to higher volumes, thus defining more critical infrastructure needs".

Approaching the matter from a completely different angle, it is interesting to take a look at slide 22 of McGraw-Hill's UBS presentation. Standard and Poor's apparently expects growth in 2008 to come a.o. from public finance for "increasing demand for new-money issuance to fund general infrastructure needs" (added at the presentation: "especially in large developing countries"). Now of course, infrastructure will entail a wide range of physical stuff, but it sounds great for us Fiber Ringers.

To end, this ties nicely into the teleworking stance we heard at the Broadband Cities conference last month. (Look out for Benoit Felten's run-down of Dirk van der Woude's presentation on his excellent Fiberevolution blog.) Reports on the benefits of true broadband i.e. FTTH abound. Personally, I am entirely convinced:

  • Economic and environmental benefits: productivity goes up, GBP grab (developing nations are leapfrogging western countries' incumbent networks), the environment will benefit from reduced traffic etc.
  • Appease managers who will have to put some trust in their employees: a video link requires FTTH. Take a look at this Alltel release for some added manager reassurance.
  • Quality of life: teleworking is nice tool for businesses trying to attract workers in tight labour markets. I presume it will become common practice to plan houses with built-in office space. More people will own second homes!

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