Friday, June 17, 2011

Are operators going to hit a wall?

Mobile operators like to complain to regulators over the threats posed by net neutrality and over-the-top service providers. Some even go as far as to say: if you go down this road, mobile service revenues will decline by 33% over the next five years relative to 2010.

What they are essentially saying is this: We are in a car, going really fast, but down the road is a wall and we're going to hit it.

It's easy to suggest what can save them: you have a driving wheel, you can easily drive around the wall. And what's more: walls on roads are characteristic of any market. It's part of doing business. Get used to it. Or as Bob Lefsetz puts it in his latest newsletter: Android shows Apple is vulnerable. And if it stays in place, Google search is vulnerable. You've got to reinvent yourself every day. Or get left behind.

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