Looking back to the 12Q4 results:
- Weakened results.
- Rights issue announced.
- NL: market share broadband 40%, longer term 45%, market share mobile >40%, 'leading' on the Business/ICT market; overall stabilisation toward 2014; EBITDA margin mid term 40-45%.
- Germany: long-term market share 20%, margin 30-35%; 2013 margin down.
- Belgium: long-term market share 25%, margin 25-30%.
- Overall 2013: capex EUR 2.3bn, dividend 3 c/share, net debt/EBITDA toward 2.0-2.5.
- Overall 2014: dividend 3 c/share
- Beyond 2014: consolidation Reggefiber not before 14H2, capex cumulative 2013-2015 EUR 7bn (incl. Reggefiber).
Market consensus 13Q1:
- Revenue EUR 2.95bn.
- EBITDA EUR 1.00bn.
- Net income EUR 310m.
- The results for 2011 and 2012 have been slightly restated to account for IAS 19 and for the splitting up of Corporate Market (formerly Getronics) - most migrates to Business, the rest continues as IT Solutions (data centers, consulting services, workspace solutions).
- The Reggefiber takeovers (approved April 2012) and the Reggeborgh takeovers (approved October 2012) create an unequal comparison basis. Same for the sale of Getronics International (May 2012).
- When will the rest of RoutIT be bought (KPN acquired 12.5% in September 2012).
- During 13Q1 the 4G-licenses were paid for (EUR 1.35bn).
- Rights issue EUR 3bn was approved and will follow after the 13Q1 results. EUR 2bn in hybrid bonds was already raised.
- What will the cooperation with America Movil (29.8%) lead to?
- According to fresh market rumors, E-Plus and O2 Germany are working toward some form of network sharing.
- Fixed network outsourcing to Alcatel-Lucent. KPN Business sold a maintenance unit.
- LTE and DC-HSPA services in NL.
- Partnered with FON in NL.
- Mobile network for Alliander (energy grid operator).
- Quad play in NL (KPN Compleet).
- Triple play in Belgium (SNOW).
- Accenture is now developing IPTV for KPN (taking over from NSN).
- How are the results developing, especially in mobile? Can guidance be maintained?
- How is the DSL market doing? What was the effect of the winter on Reggefiber?
- Will the EUR 3bn rights issue suffice, or does the leverage need to be reduced further?