Looking back to the 12Q4 results:
- Relatively strong in mobile, weak in fixed broadband.
- Revenue still down, EBITDA weak as a result of losses in mobile.
- Tele2 has now finally entered the NGA world of FTTH and LTE.
Guidance for the mobile activities in NL:
- Revenue SEK 1,600-1,700m (EUR 185-200m) (2012: EUR 105m)
- EBITDA negative SEK 50-75m (EUR 6-9m)
- EBITDA break-even: 3 years after launches 4G-services
- Capex: SEK 2,000-2,500m (EUR 230-290m), of which SEK 1,400m (EUR 161m) for 4G licenses.
Market consensus (roughly):
- Revenue SEK 1,330m
- EBITDA SEK 340m
- Mobile subs 540k
- Tele2 Russia was sold and perhaps Tele2 Croatia is next. This is good news from a capex point of view as resources may be shifted to NL. It may also leave room for acquisitions.
- Tele2 Business finally has a new director, Fedor Hoevenaars (formerly of BT and Verizon).
- Group management was reshuffled. Günther Vogelpoel (formerly Western-Europe) is now solely responsible for NL again.
- The main point is Tele2 NL's LTE strategy:
- Timeline, pricing, targets, quad plays, fixed-line replacement services?
- Will there be network sharing (with T-Mobile NL)? Recently, the group stated it expected to see 'co-build' in NL.
- Is Tele2 NL essentially a mobile-only company, following the group's motto: "Tele2 - a European mobile operator - Mobile is our strategy".
- What about WiFi? And distribution (Tele2 NL doesn't operate a retail store chain of its own)?