Sunday, December 27, 2020

Week 52 in Telecoms, Internet, Media

Corporate

  • Vodafone:
    • Terminates discussions with STC over a sale of 55% stake in Vodafone Eqypt [see 200129]
    • Closes merger of Vodafone GR's towers assets with Wind Hellas towers to form Vantage Towers Greece (Vodafone 62%, Crystal Almond 38%), call option until 211231 to buy out Crystal Almond for EUR 288m cash by 200630, 5% more by 211231, to be triggered by Vantage Towers IPO announcement
    • To buy out minority shareholders from KDG (17.1%), 103 EUR/share, stake to rise to 93.8%, total cost EUR 1.557b (2.119b for 100%) [see 130624]
  • Liberty Global: To be removed from Nasdaq-100 index 201221
  • Telenet: Liberty Global changes chain of control (transfers Binan shares to LG Broadband, transfers to UnitedGlobalCom, transfers to LG Holding); after transaction: Binan owns 66,342,037 shares (58.28% of votes), Telenet owns 4,598,558 shares (4.04% of shares)
  • Tele Columbus: Offer from Kublai (= Morgan Stanley Infrastructure), 3.25 EUR/share = EUR 400m; shareholders United Internet, Rocket Internet support, to close 21Q2; proposes capital increase EUR 475m for fiber roll-out (EGM 210120, Kublai to take part for EUR 75m, United Internet pro rata); to invest EUR 2b over 10 yr in fiber (2m HP by 2030), 1&1 Drillisch to be RSP on fiber network
  • Play: Iliad launches squeeze-out procedure for remaining 3.3% (8,494,848 shares)
  • BT: Openreach CEO Clive Selley positive on selling minority stake to investor
  • Cyfrowy Polsat: To acquire 114,173,459 Netia shares (34.02%) at 4.80 PLN/share, subscription period 210115 - 210226 (current holding 221,404,885 shares = 65.98%)
  • Netia: Rumor: to acquire several ISPs
  • Euskaltel: Expansion: 3 bidders for max 49% in fiber JV: Fiera Capital, First Sentier Investors, Infravia Capital Partners
  • Viasat: Acquires RigNet, $222m in shares
  • AT&T:
    • NYPost: may cancel DirecTV auction if offers don't improve
    • WarnerMedia acquires You.i TV (cross-platform development tools for TV and media, delivers video apps across mobile, tablet, game consoles, streaming devices, STBs, Smart TVs using a single codebase)
  • MGM (Anchorage Capital): WSJ: considers sale, valuation $5.5b
  • IAC: Plans to spin off Vimeo as listed company 21Q2
  • Tidal: Bloomberg: Square (Jack Dorsey) interested
  • ByteDance: Rumor: interested in CMGE Technology (mobile games), to acquire 27.6% stake (or part) from Fairview Ridge Investment, 4-5 HKD/share (30-60% premium)

Networks

FTTH

    • Full Fibre raises funds from Basalt Infrastructure Partners to expand FTTP (rural, semi-urban; OA via wholesale arm iNeedFibre) to 500k premises by 2025
    • Wildanet raises GBP 50m from Gresham House British Strategic Investment Infrastructure Fund for FTTP investment in Cornwall [see 201012]

5G

LEO

  • BNA (DE) provides temporary (1 yr) spectrum license to Starlink (SpaceX)
  • ACMA (Australia) provides mmWave spectrum (26, 28 GHz) to SpaceX Starlink, OneWeb, New Skies Satellite/SES, O3b/SES, Inmarsat, Viasat, Telstra, Optus, Vocus, Nokia, NBN, Opticomm, other
  • EC orders study (EUR 7m) to design, develop & launch European-owned space-based communication system (LEO, BBoS) from Airbus, Arianespace, Eutelsat, Hispasat, OHB, Orange, SES, Telespazio, Thales Alenia Space

Services

Content

Streaming

  • Samsung TV Plus (free OTT TV, 742 channels) expands to 12 countries (60m installed base, 15m active users): US, Canada, Australia, UK, FR, DE, CH, AT, IT, ES, S Korea, Brazil; plans expansion 2021 to Mexico, India, Sweden, more European countries

Web applications

Regulatory

TIM: AGCM starts antitrust investigation of FiberCop (TIM 58%, KKR 37.5%, Fastweb 4.5%)

Spectrum

  • AKOS (Slovenia) plans 5G spectrum auction 2021, combined starting prices EUR 69m
  • ACMA (Australia) awards 5G mmWave (26 GHz (24.7-25.1) & 28 GHz (27.5-29.5) bands) licenses to 15: MarchNet, Dreamtilt, Field Solutions Group, Opticomm, Nokia, NBN Co, Optus, Telstra, Vocus, Starlink (SpaceX), WorldVu (One Web), Inmarsat, Viasat, O3B/SES, New Skies Satellites/SES

Government funding

Other

  • ACM (NL) Telecommonitor 20Q3: Mobile: 4G data traffic 254m GB (+20% qoq), 10.3b min, 617m SMS; Fixed: 1.94b min over BB, 263m min over PSTN
  • DNA (Telenor): Publishes Technology Trends for 2021 guide: 17 trends



at 8:28 pm 0 comments
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Sunday, December 20, 2020

Week 51 in Telecoms, Internet, Media

Corporate

Networks

General

  • Eur Council & EP approve EC's Horizon Europe fund, EUR 95.5b until 2027 (follow-up to Horizon 2020)
  • Ookla Speedtest Global Index (Nov 20)
    • global average FBB 92/49 Mb/s, MBB 46/13 Mb/s
    • FBB: Sing #1 (241 Mb/s), HK #2 (223), Thailiand #3 (213), Monaco #4 (207), NL #26 (134)
    • MBB: UAE #1 (170), SK #2 (167), Qatar #3 (160), China #4 (148), Australia #5 (113), NL #7 (100)

FTTH

5G
  • Environmental
    • Haut Conceil pour le Climat (FR) report (Maitriser l’impact carbone de la 5G): 5G to lead to sharp increase in power consumption and greenhouse gas emissions; additional carbon emissions from data centres and device manufacturing
  • Security
  • Technology
    • 3GPP delays Release 17 (SA NR 5G, ultra-low latency, MIMO support, RAN slicing, integrated access & backhaul, MBS positioning, multicast & broadcast, multi-SIM support, etc) by 6 mo to mid 2022: stage 2 functional freeze June 2021, stage 3 protocol freeze March 2022, coding freeze June 2022; to decide on Release 18 roadmap by end 2022  
    • Samsung demos 305 Gb/s over 5G SA Core per server, with Intel  
    • Swisscom trials CA and VoNR on SA 5G, with Ericsson, OPPO, over SA 5G  
  • Launches
    • Free (Iliad) launches 5G in 700 MHz & 3.5 GHz bands (70 MHz) with smartphones at 5255 sites (pops coverage <40%; all sites for 700 band, 220 for 3.5 band) in FR, no extra cost for Free Mobile Plan subs; Free Unlimited 5G 10 EUR/mo for Freebox Pop subs, 16 for other Freebox subs; extra SIM 150 GB/mo for 20 EUR/mo for mobile-only subs; uses mainly European equipment  
    • Linkem launches 5G FWA (coop with Fastweb) in 3 towns (Modugno, Grottaglie, Avellino), target 50 YE 2020, 500 YE 2021, 2000 YE 2023; max 1 Gb/s  
    • Fastweb (Swisscom) launches 5G (26 GHz) in 50 cities (part of NeXXt Generation 2025 plan) as UltraFWA network, max 1 Gb/s, no caps; target 500 cities by 2021, 2000 by 2024; total coverage 2024E 8m HP in grey areas, 4m in white areasl CPE based on Qualcomm X55; to launch mobile 5G service 201227 in Milan, Bologna, Rome, Naples, target 90% pops coverage 2025 (to be included FWA at no extra cost)  
    • Vidéotron launches 5G (600, 700 MHz; 2.6 GHz) in Montreal, with Samsung (RAN)  
    • 3 Denmark (= Hi3G Access = 3 Group Europe = CK Hutchison 60%; Investor AB 40%) launches 5G in Copenhagen & Roskilde (425k covered subs o/w 15k have 5G smartphone), with 14 smartphones; no price premium; real speeds 25-345 Mb/s down, 23-38 Mb/s up; targets nationwide coverage summer 2022  
    • Wind Hellas launches 5G in Athens, Thessaloniki; target 60% pops coverage after 3 yr 
    • Cosmote launches 5G in Athens, Thessaloniki, other cities, with Ericsson; no price premium
    • Proximus launches 5G in 3.6-3.8 GHz band (based on temporary license)  
  • Applications
    • Vodafone DE trials 5G for broadcast pre-production at football stadium, with Sky DE  
    • AT&T demos 3D AR concert over 5G, with Ericsson, Songland (= NBC); spectators place 3D version at home and interact  
    • Telia FI launches FWA over 5G; max 400 Mb/s for 40 EUR/mo, max 1 Gb/s for 45 EUR/mo, installation fee EUR 500  
    • Aerospace & Saab launch Private 5G at plant in Linköping (SE), with Combitech, Vinnergi (SI), Nokia; spectrum subleased from Edzkom (formerly Ukkoverkot) & 3 Sweden (50 MHz in 2.6 GHz band)  
    • Chunghwa Telecom launches Private 5G at AES Group factory in Kaohsiung (to add 7 factories in 2021)  
LEO
  • Project Kuiper (Amazon; LEO) demos user terminal prototype (phased array antenna), smaller & cheaper than standard sat equipment; 400 Mb/s and 4K video with GEO  
  • SpaceX to raise funds  
  • AST SpaceMobile plans equatorial sat network (no expensive specialized satellite phones or ground antenna systems required, 4G and 5G phones suffice; to serve 49 countries, 1.6b pops), 1.6b covered pops; plans first launch of 20 sats, target 100 after 2 yr, 233 by 2027; targets 9m subs YE 2023, ARPU for SpaceMobile ~$1; targets 2023: rev $181m, EBITDA $130m; targets 2027: rev $9.7b, EBITDA $9.6b; supported by Vodafone/Vodacom and AT&T as wholesale customers (50/50 rev share); plans IPO via SPAC (symbol ASTS)  
  • OneWeb launches 36 sats; to raise $400m; target total 650 LEO sats 

Services

Retail, hardware
  • Sunrise: Launches XPLORA X5 Play eSIM: smartwatch for kids (voice calls, voice messages, SOS button, GPS for tracking, no internet), CHF 12.25 for We Connect subs (17.25 CHF/mo in 24 mo contract)
  • Telenet Business launches Tellie platform for care institutions: video calling from TV
Wholesale
Music
Video
Web services

Regulation

Telecoms

  • AGCom (IT) starts antitrust investigation against Sky IT
  • Spectrum
    • EETT (GR) launches multiband (700 MHz, 2 GHz, 3-4-3.8 GHz, 26 GHz) auction 201216, expected to raise EUR 367m - Raises EUR 372m after 6 rounds; Cosmote 123m for 2 700MHz blocks (51m), 4 2GHz blocks (35m), 15 3.5GHz blocks (31m), 2 26GHz blocks (6.5m); Vodafone 130m for 2 700MHz blocks (51m), 4 2GHz blocks (35m), 14 3.5GHz blocks (38m), 2 26GHz blocks (6.5m); Wind 119m for 2 700MHz blocks (50m), 4 2GHz blocks (35m), 10 3.5GHz blocks (30m), 1 26GHz block (3.3m)  
    • Appeals Court Sweden allows PTS to conduct auction - To start 210119  
    • MinEZK (NL) plans 3.5 GHz (3450-3750) auction 22Q1, to be available 220901, consultation 21Q1; goals: realistic chances for all candidates, realistic proceeds, simple & transparent auction model; auction model to be proposed by DotEcon; auction rules to be published 21H1, applications from 21H2 

Google

  • DoJ antitrust trial to start 230912, next staus hearing 210121 [see 200827]
  • 10 US state AGs (all Republican, led by Texas AG) start antitrust lawsuit against Google (colluding with Facebook) over monopoly in Search (redesign disadvantaged specialised (vertical) search engines, such as Amazon, TripAdvisor, Yelp, Angie's List; as Google prioritises own results) & online ads, co-conspired with Facebook to rig ad auctions and fix prices - Google denies, points to falling ad and ad-tech prices
  • Antitrust lawsuit by AGs (bipartisan) from 35 US states, DC, Guam, Puerto Rico related to Search & Search Advertising (violating Sherman Act, self-reinforcing, limiting consumer options), requires design changes - Google opposes (redesign 'to prominently feature online middlemen in place of direct connections to businesses')
  • Rejects ACCC's News Media & Digital Platforms Mandatory Bargaining Code as unworkable ("Google to pay to show links in an unprecedented intervention that would fundamentally break how search engines work", no website or search engine paid to connect people to other websites), proposes News Showcase as alternative
  • 4 Private publishers file 2 antitrust lawsuits (1 by Sweepstakes Today, 1 by Genius Media Group, The Nation, The Progressive) over digital ad sales 
Platforms
  • FTC orders Amazon, Facebook, WhatsApp, YouTube, Discord, ByteDance, Reddit, Snap, Twitter to reveal data collection policies, to respond in 45 days [in relation to tracking, personal info, privacy, kids, ads]
  • EC launches
    • DSA (Digital Services Act; e-commerce; remove illegal goods, transparency on algorithms & other recommendation engines; each acuisition to be reported; max fines 6% of annual global turnover)
    • DMA (Digital Markets Act; gatekeepers based on size (active in >= 3 states, annual rev >$6.5b, market value >EUR 65b, >45m MAU, >10k annual business customers), role, duration; may not use data from 3rd-party sellers, may not block users & businesses from using competitors, may not favor own services in rankings; fines max 10% of global turnover; systematic non-compliance may result in behavioral orders, forced divestments or breakups); national Digital Services Coordinator to monitor every 6 mo; to be negotiated with member states & EP - BEREC supports (ex-ante regulatory framework)
  • Facebook opposes Apple's iOS 14 (to show App Tracking Transparency (ATT) prompt from early 2021, limits data sharing, requires users' consent, reuqires opt-in for tracking), prepares advertisers
  • Facebook supports Epic Games in complaint against Apple's App Store policies - Judge orders Tim Cook & Craig Federighi (both Apple) to testify

at 9:11 pm 0 comments
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Sunday, December 13, 2020

Week 50 in Telecoms, Internet, Media

Corporate

  • Telefonica: Rumor: may sell Movistar Uruguay to Telecom Argentina
  • BT: Sells 2 BT Italy units (serving Public Administration and SME) to TIM, completing Phase 1 of transformation (sold units in FR, DE, NL, ES, China, Singapore, 15 Latam countries); Phase 2 to focus on growth    
  • MasMovil (KKR, Cinven, Providence): Rumor: offers EUR 90m for Ahimas (Ahi+) (wants EUR 170m)
  • Altice Europe: Lucerne Capital files petition at Amsterdam Court of Appeal asking for inquiry into corporate governance; asks for appointment of 3 independent non-executive directors to the board, prohibit EGM 210107; hearing 201223
  • Belgium
    • Orange BE: Polygon European Equity Opportunity Master Fund (holds 5.29%) opposes Orange offer 'derisory', wants 39.50-47.25 EUR/share; Orange BE owns 3100 towers at 300k EUR/tower (sale of 66% could raise EUR 600m)
    • Cegeka: Acquires majority of Citymesh, to concentrate 4G/5G in Citymesh
    • Proximus: To reduce office space at CHQ from 105k to 40k m^2 due to corona virus
  • VodafoneZiggo:
    • Launches Green Bond Framework, pillars: Use of Proceeds, Process for Project Evaluation and Selection, Management of Proceeds, Reporting, External Review (KPMG);  launches new CSR (ESG) strategy (‘People, Planet, Progress’), goals: 'halve our impact on the environment and help two million people move forward in society' (2% energy efficiency improvement every year, reducing greenhouse gas emissions and we use 100% wind energy), focus on ' climate crisis, pollution and social inequality'; 5 areas: 1. Everything for a healthy environment, 2. Equal opportunities in the digital society, 3. A diverse and inclusive culture, 4. Technology for society, 5. Sustainable purchasing of services and products
    • Launched first Green Bond 201207: settlement 201218, EUR 700m 2.875% notes due 2029 to refinance existing debt (EUR 600m 2.5% Vendor Financing due 2024 & EUR 100m Vendor Financing due 2021), 'to invest an amount equal to the net proceeds of the Green Bonds in existing and/or future green projects'
  • Delisting
  • AT&T
    • WSJ: offers for DirecTV reach $15b
    • WarnerMedia sells Crunchyroll to Funimation (= Sony Pictures Ent, Aniplex (= Sony Music Ent); 3m SVOD subs, 90m r'red users for AVOD), $1.175b cash
  • Modern Times Group: Acquires Hutch (free-to-play mobile games), $375m (275 cash + 100 earn-out)
  • Google: Acquires Dataform (UK, B2B, manage data warehouses) 
  • Amazon: Rumor: to invest $100m in Apollo Pharmacy (India)
  • ByteDance: Federal Court Washington grants injunction against TikTok shutdown in US
  • Uber
    • Sells Advanced Technologies Group (self-driving car tech) to Aurora Innovation, rumored price $4b, to close 21Q1; Uber to invest $400m in newco at $10b valuation, Uber to own 26%, ATG investors to own ~14%
    • Sells Elevate (flying taxis) to Joby Aviation, to invest $75m in newco
  • IPO
    • DoorDash: IPO price $102, first trade $182, closes at $189.51
    • Airbnb: IPO price $68, First trade $146, closes at $144.71
    • C3.ai: IPO price $42, first trade $100.00, closes at $92.49
    • Roblox: Postpones IPO to 2021; "Based on everything we have learned to date, we feel there is an opportunity to improve our specific process for employees, shareholders and future investors both big and small" [DoorDash, Airbnb, C3.ai exploded on first day of trading, implying IPO price was too low]
    • Affirm: Postpones IPO to 2021 

Networks

FTTP
  • Proximus launches Fiber in Brussel: plans full FTTH coverage (600k HP) in Brussels (Brussels Hoofdstedelijk Gewest) by end 2026, partners Actiris, Bruxelles Formation, VDAB Brussel (600 jobs); target 4.2m HP YE 2028 (currently 400k, rollout in 16 cities); plans 50k in Brussels YE 2020, to add 100k/yr from 2022; ultimate coverage target BE 70%
  • Ulysse Group orders XGS-PON from Iskratel for network in Luik
  • Telekom DE plans nationwide FTTH by 2030, to add 600k HP in 2020 (2019: 270k), to rise to 2m/yr; currently 13k employees in Fiber Factory
  • Orange RO to increase FTTH 50% in 4 yr
  • CityFibre plans expansion to Plymouth, GBP 52m, roll-out to start Jan 2021 - And Dewsbury, GBP 40m - And Bradford, GBP 75m
  • Hyperoptic plans FTTP at large proportion of L&Q (housing ass London & SE England, total 90k)
  • Mediacom sues to block West Des Moines' partnership with Google Fiber
5G
  • DoCoMo demos CA, with Qualcommm: 100 MHz in 3.5 GHz & 100 MHz in 4.5 GHz, max 4.2 Gb/s
  • Slovak Telekom launches 5G (DSS of 15 MHz in 2100 MHz band) in Bratislava, down 300-600 Mb/s, up 60-80 Mb/s; launches Privat 5G at CEIT (R&D center in Zilina)
  • T-Mobile US launches 5G mobile hotspot from Inseego (5G MiFi M2000); 500 MB for 5 $/mo, 100 Gb for 50 $/mo
6G
  • EC appoints Nokia leader of 6G project Hexa-X (210101 - 230630): research, pre-standardisation process, use cases, scenarios; 6 challenges: 1. Connecting intelligence (AI/ML for improved efficiency & service experience), 2. Network of networks (digital ecosystem), 3. Sustainability (reduced global ICT environmental footprint), 4. Global service coverage (incl connecting remote places), 5. Extreme experience (extreme bitrates, extremely low (imperceptible) latencies, seemingly infinite capacity, precision localization & sensing), 6. Trustworthiness (confidentiality & integrity of communications and delivering data privacy, operational resilience & security) - Ericsson to co-lead - Partners: Orange, TIM, Telefonica, Intel, Atos, Siemens, universities, other
LEO

Services

Video

    • Overall
      • Total D2C content expense 2023/24 $14-16b
      • Total streaming subs 300-350m by 240930
    • Disney+
      • Reaches 86.8m subs 201202 (o/w 24m = ~30% for Disney+ Hotstar in India), target 230-260m by 240930 (o/w/ 30-40% at Hotstar; incl Star, launch 210223)
      • Target peak oper loss in 2020/21, profitable in 2023/24
      • To raise prices March 2021 in US from 7 to 8 $/mo (70 to 80 $/yr), bundle Hulu (with ads) & ESPN+ from 13 to 14 $/mo; new bundle Disney+, Hulu (ad-free), ESPN+ 19 $/mo; in Europe from 7 to 9 EUR/mo (to add Star)
      • Plans to add new originals to Disney+ every week; distr deal with Comcast for Xfinity X1 and Flex subs; to spend $8-9b on originals in 2023/24; to add 10 Marvel series, 10 Star Wars series, 15 Disney & Pixar series & 15 features (total 100 releases/yr across all brands)
      • Pinocchio (Tom Hanks), Peter Pan and Wendy to skip theaters to premiere on Disney+; day-and-date theater release & Premier Access at $30 for Raya and the Last Dragon
      • Star (#6 tier within Disney+, next to Disney, Pixar, Marvel, Star Wars, NatGeo; with parental control) to launch 210223 in continental Europe (1k titles), Canada, ANZ, Singapore
    • Hulu
      • Reaches 38.8m paid subs 201202, target 50-60m by 240930
      • 92m MAU for AVOD, Hulu With Live TV 4m subs
      • Target profitable by 2022/23
    • ESPN+
      • Reaches 11.5m subs 201202, target 20-30m by 240930
      • Target profitable by 2022/23
    • Star+
      • Incl. Disney+, ESPN, ESPN+ content
      • To launch June 2021 in Latam, ~7.50 $/mo stand-alone, ~9.00 $/mo in bundle with Disney+
      • 2k titles in first yr + 10k sports events (500 per mo)
Gaming
Web services
  • Amazon: AWS launches Amazon HealthLake: aggregates an organization’s complete data across various silos and disparate formats into a centralized AWS data lake and automatically normalizes this information using ML; first customers: Cerner, Ciox Health, Konica Minolta Precision Medicine, Orion Health
  • Brave launches Brave Today: personalised news reader (without trail for Brave, ISPs or 3rd-parties), based on CDN
Telco consumer services
  • yallo (Sunrise UPC subbrand) launches yallo Home for postpaid subs, 40 CHF/mo (new subs: 49 CHF/mo) in 24 mo contract for 10/10 Gb/s + TV (Wilmaa premium TV free for 24 mo, after 13 CHF/mo) + 2 mo free Sky Show or Sky Sport, with free Zyxel Fiber Box (with WiFi 6: max 6 Gb/s)
Telco business services
Telco web services
Smart city
  • Smart Dubai launches Leadership Dashboard for Government Resources initiative: aggregates financial, contractual, HR-related government data, to offer decision-makers a holistic view of their organisations, allowing them to make informed decisions based on real-time data 
  • Colombia to invest $1b in smart cities & educational centres. 
  • Leuven launched Digital City Pole project, with TRES, Citymesh (Cegeka, 5G) & Nokia (GPON): LED lighting, EV-charging

Hardware

Apple
Broadcom
  • FCC approves Broadcom's BCM4389 (world’s first FCC-certified Wi-Fi 6E chip), latency 2ms

Regulatory

Facebook
Platforms
  • Cnil (FR) fines Google EUR 100m, Amazon EUR 35m for breaching data protection rules by placing advertising cookies on users’ computers without obtaining appropriate consent
  • ACM (NL) starts investigation into how to oversee algorithms, publishes report (position paper); trial with Muziekweb
  • Modern Computing Alliance established by Google, Dell, Intel, Slack, Zoom, Box, Cirtrix, Imprivata, Okta, RingCentral, VMWare: to tackle joint problems around security, remote work, and other enterprise issues; focus on 4 areas: 1. performance, 2. security & identity, 3 remote work, productivity & collaboration, 4. health care; focus on Chrome browser and Chrome OS
Telecoms
  • FCC starts C-band auction: 280 MHz in 3.7-3.98 GHz band (currently at satellite operators) - Reaches $1.9b after day 1
  • Cyprus plans 5G multiband auction 201217, 4 bidders: Cyta (Cytamobile-Vodafone), PrimeTel, Epic, Cablenet: 6 lots 2x5 in 700 MHz band, 8 lots 50 MHz in 3.6 GHz band; coverage requirement: 70% of pops and major highways by 251231; reserve price CYP 6m per license


at 10:53 pm 0 comments
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Netflix: all the originals and licensing announcements of Week 50

Series
Series - non-fiction
  • The Red Zone (comedy about football, Sam Mendes, 6x30)
  • Man vs Bee (short-form comedy, Rowan Atkinson, 10x10)
  • Half Bad (Joe Barton, 8x60)
  • The Seven Deaths of Evelyn Hardcastle (Sophie Petzal, 7x60)
  • Lockwood & Co (Joe Cornish, 8x60)
  • Cuckoo Song (6x60)
  • Baby Reindeer (Richard Gadd, 8x30)
also: A Concise Chinese-English Dictionary for Lovers

Movies
Movies - non-fiction

at 9:10 pm 0 comments
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Friday, December 11, 2020

Walt Disney Investor Day 2020: D2C targets raised; Disney+ adds Star and raises price; Star+ launches 2021 in Latam

Walt Disney's 2020 Investor Day presentation.

Overall

  • Total D2C content expense 2023/24 $14-16b
  • Total streaming subs 300-350m by 240930

Disney+

  • Reaches 86.8m subs 201202 (o/w 24m = ~30% for Disney+ Hotstar in India), target 230-260m by 240930 (o/w/ 30-40% at Hotstar; incl Star, launch 210223)
  • Target peak oper loss in 2020/21, profitable in 2023/24
  • To raise prices March 2021 in US from 7 to 8 $/mo (70 to 80 $/yr), bundle Hulu (with ads) & ESPN+ from 13 to 14 $/mo; new bundle Disney+, Hulu (ad-free), ESPN+ 19 $/mo; in Europe from 7 to 9 EUR/mo (to add Star)
  • Plans to add new originals to Disney+ every week; distr deal with Comcast for Xfinity X1 and Flex subs; to spend $8-9b on originals in 2023/24; to add 10 Marvel series, 10 Star Wars series, 15 Disney & Pixar series & 15 features (total 100 releases/yr across all brands)
  • Pinocchio (Tom Hanks), Peter Pan and Wendy to skip theaters to premiere on Disney+; day-and-date theater release & Premier Access at $30 for Raya and the Last Dragon
  • Star (#6 tier within Disney+, next to Disney, Pixar, Marvel, Star Wars, NatGeo; with parental control) to launch 210223 in continental Europe (1k titles), Canada, ANZ, Singapore

Hulu

  • Reaches 38.8m paid subs 201202, target 50-60m by 240930
  • 92m MAU for AVOD, Hulu With Live TV 4m subs
  • Target profitable by 2022/23

ESPN+

  • Reaches 11.5m subs 201202, target 20-30m by 240930
  • Target profitable by 2022/23

Star+

  • Incl. Disney+, ESPN, ESPN+ content
  • To launch June 2021 in Latam, ~7.50 $/mo stand-alone, ~9.00 $/mo in bundle with Disney+
  • 2k titles in first yr + 10k sports events (500 per mo)


at 11:13 am 0 comments

Thursday, December 10, 2020

The case for FWA in markets with full-grown fixed-line networks

Fixed-wireless access (FWA) over 5G in the 3.5 or 26 GHz bands could be a fixed-line killer, based on:

  1. The technology works. FWA-over-5G is active in many countries. Where fixed-line networks are not mature, it is the strongest 5G business case.
  2. In most mature fixed-line markets, mobile networks are mature as well. Therefore, the access networks are ready for 5G, even if they may need some densification for the 26 GHz band.
  3. Backhaul is a potential problem. FWA generates a disproportionate amount of mobile data traffic (see Ericsson's recent Mobility Report).
  4. There's always at least one serious market challenger annex mobile operator. It could offer 2 SIMs with a discount for unlimited usage, one for mobile and one for FWA.


at 8:21 am 0 comments
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Wednesday, December 09, 2020

FTC starts antitrust lawsuit against Facebook over 'illegal monopolisation'

The FTC & 48 AGs (46 states, DC, Guam) start antitrust lawsuit based on Instagram [see 120409] and WhatsApp [see 140219] acquisitions and imposition of anticompetitive conditions on software developers (illegal monopolisation):

  • "... initially tried to compete with Instagram on the merits by improving its own offerings, but Facebook ultimately chose to buy Instagram rather than compete with it. Facebook’s acquisition of Instagram for $1 billion in April 2012 allegedly both neutralizes the direct threat posed by Instagram and makes it more difficult for another personal social networking competitor to gain scale."
  • "Facebook’s leadership understood—and feared—that a successful mobile messaging app could enter the personal social networking market, either by adding new features or by spinning off a standalone personal social networking app. (...) Facebook chose to buy an emerging threat rather than compete."
  • "Allegedly has made key APIs available to third-party applications only on the condition that they refrain from developing competing functionalities, and from connecting with or promoting other social networking services."

Possible remedies: "divestitures of assets, including Instagram and WhatsApp; prohibit Facebook from imposing anticompetitive conditions on software developers; and require Facebook to seek prior notice and approval for future mergers and acquisitions".

Other measures could be contemplated, such as data portability, or an obligation to offer an ad-free Facebook subscription.

Needless to say, Facebook disagrees.

Initial thoughts:

  • Take out a competitor? Sure, but is there any evidence, such as: Zuckerberg acknowledging as much on record?
  • However, Instagram was quite small when taken over: just 30m users. Last funding round took place at a $500m valuation. The question is: did Facebook's investments make it grow, or was it the 'network effect' that had already taken hold of Instagram?
    • Our notes from 120409: Acquires Instagram (photo-sharing app for iOS, Android; raised $57.5m; 30m users, 5m uploads/day; no revenue; 13 FTE), $1bn in cash/shares (raised $50m at $500m valuation from Sequoia, Thrive Capital, Greylock, Benchmark)
  • WhatsApp had 450m MAU and 320m DAU when taken over for an (at the time) ridiculous $19b. The deal was approved by the FTC (!), on some privacy conditions (which appears not to be at stake now). At the time, WhatsApp had already become very large, exploiting the 'network effect'.
    • Our notes from 140219: Acquires WhatsApp (55 employees o/w 32 engineers; Sequoia Capital 40%; >8k cores), $16bn (4 cash, 12 in shares (183,865,778 shares); cash >= 25%) + $3bn restricted stock (45,966,444 restricted stock units) vesting in 4 yr (for founders and employees: earn-out, retention), total shares 7.9%; to remain independent; 450m mo active users o/w 70% active daily (320m); 19bn messages/day sent, 34bn messages/day received, 600m photos/day uploaded, 200m voice messages/day sent, 100m video messages/day sent; break-up fee payable to WhatsApp in case of regulatory issue: $1bn cash + $1bn in shares; termination possible by both if no closing by 140819 (or 190815 if only regulation is open); to close 2014; CEO Jan Koum to be on Facebook board - Rumor: Google offered $10bn, willing to pay more than $19bn - 9.5m users in NL - Electronic Privacy Information Center & Center for Digital Democracy oppose over privacy - WhatsApp denies data sharing with Facebook - FTC approves, condition: both must uphold privacy policies
  • As to the FTC:
    • The wording of the FTC (above) is far from neutral.
    • It states that "... makes it more difficult for another personal social networking competitor to gain scale" but why would that be so?
    • The FTC approved both acquisition.
  • No matter how hard Facebook tries to unite the services, in order to preclude a break up, the three services still appear to be almost completely separate from each other. A break-up or forced sale wouldn't necessarily change anything much from a user perspective. Competitors would still have a very hard time creating a competing service.
  • Will Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp as standalone companie increase competition, in other words: will they enter each other's markets? Quite possibly so, for instance: Facebook has the facebook Messenger and Instagram has DM to compete with WhatsApp.
  • No matter how you look at it: Facebook allowed Instagram and WhatsApp to grow to their enormous sizes today, so from a consumer standpoint they did quite well.
  • Facebook's abusive behaviour relates mainly to privacy and misinformation and has little to do with owning Instagram and WhatsApp (apart from the de facto social media monopoly status giving it confidence that it can get away with this behavior).


at 11:11 pm 0 comments
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