Sunday, December 06, 2020

Week 49 in Telecoms, Internet, Media

Corporate 

  • Telefonica: Establishes 50/50 JV Movistar Money in Colombia (19m subs; may expand in Latam) with BBVA to offer consumer loans, to launch 21Q2
  • TIM: Reuters: KKR to sell part of FiberCop stake (max 30%) to Infinity Investments (sovereign wealth fund Abu Dhabi)
  • Orange Belgium: Orange plans offer, 22 EUR/share cash (36% premium); plans squeeze-out & delisting on reaching 90% capital, 95% votes; current ownership: Orange 52.91% (via Atlas Services Belgium), Polygon Global Partners 5.05%, Boussard & Gavaudan 3.02%, free float 39.02%
  • Tele2: Sells Tele2 DE in MBO, EV EUR 22.8m
  • Altice Europe: Sued by Lucerne Capital Management (owns EUR 94m in shares): opposes structure of Next offer, price too low - Sessa Capital agrees
  • Optus: Plans to sell 70% of towers, $2b
  • Eurofiber: Acquires FullSave (B2B operator in Toulouse & Bordeaux regions; FTTO (600 km), 1 datacenter for colocation, IaaS)
  • RTL: Buys out minority shareholders in RTL BE (tv: RTL-TVI, Club RTL, Plug RTL; radio: Bel RTL, Radio Contact, Mint; streaming: RT: Play; news site: RTLInfo.be) in cash & stock
  • S&P Global: WSJ: offers $44b for IHS Markit - In stock
  • Google: Acquires Actifio (data mgt for businesses) 
  • Amazon:
    • Record Holiday season to date (Black Friday, Cyber Monday); 3rd-party sales $4.8b (+60% yoy), 71k surpasssed $100k in sales; 3rd-[arty sellers created total 2.2m jobs
    • WSJ: to acquire Wondery (podcast maker), >$300m
  • Facebook: Acquires Kustomer (CRM solution for small businesses), rumored price >$1b
  • Airbnb: Revised IPO filing: IPO price $44-50 (valuation at max $35b), to raise $2.5b, symbol ABNB
  • DoorDash: Raises IPO range to $90-95, 33m shares, to raise $3.1b

Networks

  • VodafoneZiggo: Integrates internet traffic with Liberty Global (replacing direct peering at AMS-IX) from 201130; expects no quality degradation (latency, packet loss); current peak capacity 6.5 Tb/s
  • Fixed:
    • WIK report on copper switch-off 
    • IDATE for FTTH Council Europe report (State of Fibre: new Market Forecasts 2020-2026 revealed) forecasting 2020-2026:
      • FTTH/B connections in EU27+1 to 202m with 148m subs (73.3%)
      • NL: from 3.8m HP with 2.0m subs (25.3% HH penetration) in 2020 to 7.7m HP with 4.6m subs in 2026 (56.4% HH penetration)
      • also for EU39: from 195m HP with 86m subs (43.9%) in 2020 to 317m HP with 208m subs (65.4%) in 2026
    • RUNE connects first customer to XGS-PON (first in Europe), with Iskratel
    • Google Fiber launches 2 Gb/s in Huntsville, Nashville 
    • Netherlands:
  • Wireless:
    • Industry reports:
      • Ericsson Mobility Report:
        • 5G pops coverage YE 2020E 1b, 5G subs YE 2020 220m, 2026E 3.5b
        • 5G launched by 106 operators (o/w 22 announced cloud gaming); FWA launched by 200 service providers, YE 2026E subscriptions 180m (o/w 70m = 40% over 5G), from 60m YE 2020E, data traffic 2026E 25% of all mobile data traffic, from 15% at end 2020)
        • Mobile data traffic growth 20Q3 10% qoq, 50% yoy, by 2026 5G will carry 54% of all mobile data, data traffic per smartphone CAGR 2020-2026 24%, 30% in MENA, 30% in Latam, 28% in SE-Asia/Oceania, 27% in N-America, 26% in W-Europe, 26% in C&E Europe, 26% in sub-Sahara Africa, 24% in NE-Asia, 15% in India
        • IoT connections to grow from 12.6b in 2020 to 26.9b in 2026 (CAGR 13%), CAGR by type: short-range 12%, wide area 22% (o/w cellular 23%)
        • 4 time-critical use cases with 5G (low latency; 10s of ms = 99% reliability, 1 ms = 99.999% reliability):
          • Real-time media: processing and rendering to the cloud; for AR/VR
          • Remote control: moving humans out of hazardous locations
          • Industrial control: real-time process monitoring and control, controller-to-controller communication, smart grid control, machine vision for robotics and motion control,
          • Mobility automation: automation of control loops for vehicles and mobile robots for automated guided vehicles (AGVs), cooperative maneuvering of vehicles, advanced intersection safety
        • 5G network coverage 60% of global pops by 2026, from >1b = 15% in 2020
        • [other topics: AT&T FirstNet, Industry 4.0, mobile cloud gaming]
        • Operators have 3 main paths to success:
          • Quality (to lead the market, taken by 19%)
          • Offering (to challenge the market with new offerings, taken by 28%)
          • Industry (follow trends; to follow the market, focus on value-for-money propositions; taken by 38%)
      • Comsof for FTTH Council Europe report 'Fibre for 5G: the story of convergence' [see 190313]: phased roll-out of FTTH (requires 2 fibers) with spare capacity significantly reduces future cost of 5G (backhaul requires 24 fibers); based on shared trenches & ducts; extra investment to make FTTH ready for 5G is 1-7%
      • Viavi Solutions report 'Fiber in 5G Networks': FTTx disaggregated architecture using splitters for FTTH and WDM for small cells
      • Enterprise IoT Insights report 'Challenges with Digital Change in Healthcare – from low-level IoT sensing to big-bang 5G and AI, and how Covid-19 has turned the market both on and off': remote monitoring in healthcare
    • 5G launches
      • Bouygues launches 5G (3.5 & 2.1 GHz) in 20 cities, targets nationwide coverage end 2021; plans 5G Core 2023; launches promo: B&You 25 EUR/mo (unlimited voice & text, 130 GB)
      • Viettel launches 5G in Hanoi (free trial), to expand to Da Nang and Ho Chi Minh City
    • 5G technology

Services

      • in US 210104; Already launched in UK/Ireland (distr. deal with Sky). In US 210104 (distr. deal with Verizon: 12 mo free for Play More or Get More Unlimited subs, 6 mo free for Start or Do More Unlimited subs). To add >25 countries in 2021: Nordics, IT (distr. deal with TIM), NL, ES, Latam, parts of Asia (incl. India).
      • 5 $/mo with, 7 $/mo without ads
      • Max 5 profiles, max 4 concurrent streams
      • 55k episodes from 2500 shows at launch (incl 50 originals, 150 hr of exclusive content), to add 1000 hr of originals in first yr
      • No linear channels (content first in linear channels, then on Discovery+) but sports in Europe (incl Tokyo Olympics) be covered (via Eurosport)
    • WarnerMedia:
      • Entire 2021 film slate (17 films: The Matrix 4, Dune, In the Heights, The Many Saints of Newark, The Suicide Squad, The Little Things, Judas and the Black Messiah, Tom and Jerry, Godzilla vs. Kong, Mortal Kombat, Those Who Wish Me Dead, The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It, Space Jam: A New Legacy, Reminiscence, Malignant, King Richard) to premiere in theaters & on HBO Max on same day because of corona virus - Ends offering free trial - AMC (659 theaters) opposes, will "aggressively pursue economic terms that preserve our business"
      • Plans expansion to Europe (replacing HBO-branded services in C&Ê Europe and Nordics), Latam 21H2; long term target 190 countries h
      • Rumor: plans 2 streaming video services 2021: CNN (SVOD), entertainment (content from TBS, TNT, Warner Bros films; free AVOD)

Hardware

  • Vodafone UK launches smartwatch Neo for kids, developed with Disney, Fuseproject
  • Vodafone partners with Nreal (glasses for AR, MR) to develop wearables & services for consumers (sports, gaming, virtual tours, mmersive education) & businesses (conference call capabilities, remote collaboration & technical services, retail-focused offerings incl virtual showrooms) over 5G
  • Amazon: Fire TV Cube adds webcam support for calling any Alexa-enabled device 

Regulatory

  • Telecoms
    • Ofcom (UK) launches Spectrum Management Strategy, consultation until 210226
  • Platforms
    • Rumor: US federal & state authorities plan 4 lawsuits against Google & Facebook by Jan 2021
    • ACM (NL) starts investigation of payment apps and NFC (some smartphone only allow payment app from NFC provider) 
    • Google: Federal judge handling DoJ lawsuit [see 201020] calls on both sides to set rules about who will have access to sensitive information
    • Facebook:
      • Oversight Board interim report: 20k submitted posts since start (201022), selects 6 for comments (by 201208)
      • Reuters: >40 US states (led by NY) plan antitrust lawsuit Dec 2020
      • US DoJ sues over discriminating against US workers by reserving positions for temporary visa holders


at 9:28 pm
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