Ericsson Mobility Report (Nov. 30): 5G coverage 60% by 2026, smartphone data traffic CAGR 2020-2026 24%

Ericsson published its new Mobility Report 201130. A walk-through of its contents:

• 5G pops coverage
• YE 2020E 1b
• 5G subs YE 2020 220m, 2026E 3.5b
• FWA
• launched by 200 service providers
• YE 2026E subscriptions 180m (o/w 70m = 40% over 5G), from 60m YE 2020E
• data traffic 2026E 25% of all mobile data traffic, from 15% at end 2020)
• Mobile data traffic
• growth 20Q3 10% qoq, 50% yoy
• by 2026 5G will carry 54% of all mobile data
• smartphone data traffic CAGR 2020-2026 24%
• 30% in MENA, 30% in Latam
• 28% in SE-Asia/Oceania
• 27% in N-America
• 26% in W-Europe, 26% in C&E Europe, 26% in sub-Sahara Africa
• 24% in NE-Asia
• 15% in India
• IoT connections
• to grow from 12.6b in 2020 to 26.9b in 2026 (CAGR 13%)
• CAGR by type: short-range 12%, wide area 22% (o/w cellular 23%)
• 4 time-critical use cases with 5G (low latency; 10s of ms = 99% reliability, 1 ms = 99.999% reliability)
1. Real-time media: processing and rendering to the cloud; for AR/VR
2. Remote control: moving humans out of hazardous locations
3. Industrial control: real-time process monitoring and control, controller-to-controller communication, smart grid control, machine vision for robotics and motion control
4. Mobility automation: automation of control loops for vehicles and mobile robots for automated guided vehicles (AGVs), cooperative maneuvering of vehicles, advanced intersection safety
• 5G network coverage 60% of global pops by 2026, from >1b = 15% in 2020
• [other topics: AT&T FirstNet, Industry 4.0, mobile cloud gaming]
• operators have 3 main paths to success
1. Quality (to lead the market, taken by 19%)
2. Offering (to challenge the market with new offerings, taken by 28%)
3. Industry (follow trends; to follow the market, focus on value-for-money propositions; taken by 38%)