Sunday, February 14, 2021

Week 6 in Telecoms, Internet, Media

Corporate

  • BT:  Hatch report (The Economic Impact of BT Group in the UK): gross value added (GVA) 2019/20 GBP 24b, supports 300k FTE, spent GBP 10.1 on UK suppliers, maintains 35k vehicles; spending by people on BT pension contributed GBP 2b, supports 26600 jobs
  • Proximus: Buys out Swisscom (22.4% for EUR 110m) and MTN (20.0% for EUR 107m = ZAR 1.8b, to record ZAR 1.2b book profit) from BICS for full ownership and strategic flexibility; EV EUR 569m = 4.4x EBITDA
  • Vodafone: Vantage Towers Moodys: Baa3, outlook stable
    • 45,500 fully controlled macro sites + 14,200 and 22,100 co-controlled macro sites in Cornerstone (50%) and INWIT (33.2%) JVs, 20/21 Adj EBITDA EUR 814m; debt EUR 2.3b, leverage 4.0 (Moodys: gross debt/EBITDA excl Cornerstone, INWIT 5.0x)
    • Positives: strong market positions, geographically well-diversified, high barriers to entry for competitors, high barriers to exit for customers, good earnings & cash flow predictability (supported by anchor long-term service contracts with Vodafone), expectation of medium-term EBITDA growth (driven by site additions, improving tenancies ratios, operational efficiencies)
    • Negatives: high customer concentration with Vodafone, short history of operating as a separate entity, expectation of negative free cash flow over the next 2 years (as a result of Vantage Towers' capital intensive model (7,100 contractual built-to-suit commitments that it is targeting over FY2022-FY2026) and planned dividend payments of EUR 280m to be paid in FY2022), starting net leverage of around 4.0x EBITDAaL with willingness to increase up to 5.5x
  • Telenet: 20Q4
    • Outlook 2021: rev (+1%) & Adj EBITDA (up 1-2%) to return to growth, Op FCF -1%, FCF 420-440m
    • Outlook 2018-2021: Op FCF CAGR lower end of current range 6.5-8.0%
    • Focus on 5 pillars: 1. Expand customer relations, 2. grow in B2B, 3. Customer approach simplified, digital-first, 4. Perfect networks, 5. Empower employees, agile structure
    • Eltrona deconsolidation [see 200225] reduces operationals from 21Q2: HP -47700, customers -9500, RGUs -18500, TV -9200, BB -5500, FT -3800
    • Other: expects to win VOO auction (21Q2), Wallonia may hold on to stake; talks with Fluvius on FTTH ongoing (currently full fiber for FTTO and greenfields); considers towers (>3000) monetisation in case of funding need or transformational transaction
  • MasMovil: Acquires controlling stake in Lucera: energy reseller
  • Vivendi: To spin off 60% of Universal Music Group (Tencent holds 20%, Vivendi to hold 20%) in IPO as special dividend end 2021 in Amsterdam 'to reduce Vivendi’s conglomerate discount'; EV EUR 30b; EGM 210329; Vivendi shareholders to receive 44%, Bollore Groupe (holds 27% of Vivendi) 16%; proposes ordinary div EUR 0.60 over 2020, AGM 210622
  • Twitter: 20Q4
    • outlook 21Q1: rev $940-1040m, oper income loss $0-50m
    • outlook 2021: headcount +20%, costs + expenses +25% (incl new datacenter), rev to grow faster than expenses, SBC expense $525-575m, capex $900-950m
    • CEO Jack Dorsey considers decentralised social network to be built by Bluesky team [see 191211]; plans to give people more choice over what they see through marketplace of algorithms
  • Match Group acquires Hyperconnect, $1.73b: social network S Korea, operates Azar (live video & audio chat platform) & Hakuna Live (live-streaming app for video & audio broadcasts)
  • Bumble: Sets IPO price at $43, to sell 50m shares - First trade $76.00, closes at $70.31

Networks

  • 5G
    • GSA report on 5G devices: total 558 announced (o/w 365 = 62% commercially available) in 20 form factors from 113 vendors, 294 smartphones & 113 FWA devices announced (o/w 251 resp 42 commercially available)
    • GSA report on 4G & 5G networks, technologies & spectrum: 806 commercial 4G networks (incl 421 FWA, 743 mobile); 156 invest in NB-IoT o/w 111 launched, 51 deply LTE-M; 413 operators in 131 countries invest in 5G (o/w 65 operators in SA 5G) o/w 144 in 61 countries commercially launched 5G
    • Qualcomm launches Snapdragon X65 5G Modem-RF System (gen 4 5G modem-to-antenna solution; Release 16, 10 Gb/s, sub-6 GHz & mmWave, AI antenna tuning tech, upgradeable architecture) & X62 (for mainstream adoption of mobile broadband)
    • Personal (= Telecom Argentina) launches 5G in Buenos Aires, Rosario using DSS
    • Omantel launches 5G, no extra charge
    • Asia Pacific Telecom develops 5G-supported smart robots, with Foxconn Global Network (FHnet), to operate over SA Private 5G
    • Verizon opens 5G for sub-brand Visible (supports e-SIM)
  • 6G
    • Fraunhofer (5 institutes: IIS, HHI, FOKUS, IAF, IZM) launches 6G Sentinel research; focus on THz (100-300 GHz; very small cells, beamforming (Massive MIMO) integrated), flexible networks
    • CEA-Leti launches 6G research project RISE-6G, with 13 partners (Orange, TIM, NEC; Chalmeers University, Aalborg University, National & Kapodistrian University of Athens, University of Notthingam; Consorzion Nazionale Interuniversitario Italiano, Centre National de la Recherche Sceintifique; SNCF, Fiat); plans 'smart & energy-sustainable technology advances, on reconfigurable intelligent surfaces that will enable programmable control'
  • LEO
    • Starlink requests FCC designation as Eligible Telecommunications Carrier (ETC) to comply for funding [see 201207] - Competitors (FBA, NTCA) oppose funding as Starlink to hit capacity ceiling (congestion) by 2028 (Starlink plans 12k sats, throughput per sat 20 Gb/s, peak bandwidth per user 1.7-2.7 Mb/s); Starlink current permission max 1m users, to raise to 5m
    • Telesat orders LEO fleet Lightspeed (at 1015 and 1325 km; Ka-band, first launch in 2 yr, commercial servivces 23H2) from Thales Alenia Space; total capacity with 298 sats 15 Tb/s, max data rates 7.5 Gb/s (20 Gb/s for hotspot)
    • Starlink beta to expand to ZA in 2022 (already in US, Canada, UK); opens for deposites, fulfilled on a first-come, first-served basis - And to Spain - And global, where legal
    • Starlink (SpaceX) considers IPO
  • FTTH
    • Fern Trading
      • Jurassic Fibre (= Fern Trading) launches service in Barnstaple, max 950 Mb/s; to cover 10k premises by summer 2021
      • Swhish Fibre (= Fern Trading; plans 250k HP in 33 towns, 10 Gb/s) plans expansion in South Buckinghamshire
      • Vorboss (plans 250k FTTP lines by 2022) 75% stake acquired by Fern Trading

Services

  • B2B
    • Deutsche Telekom: T-Systems adopts Cloud-First strategy, expands partnerships with AWS, Azure; to launch new cloud offering 210216
    • Swisscom: Acquires Webtiser (expertise in SAP Customer Experience, 40 omployees), expands SAP-unit to 440 employees
    • Multiscope Thuiswerk Monitor survey report NL: 44% of WFH staff (due to corona virus) bought office products, spending average EUR 359 = total EUR 400m; 48% received financial support from employer
    • Microsoft adds Bulletins (news, info) and Milestones (track progress of work items) apps for Teams
    • Metrigy report (survey of 476 firms): 47% of businesses globally use UCaaS

  • Wholesale
  • Mobile
  • Smart city
    • Plasencia (Spain) orders smart city solution for tourism from Red.es and Vodafone ES, EUR 374k
    • Sharing Cities program (London, Lisbon, Milan, Bordeaux, Burgas, Warsaw) reaches EUR 250m investments in retrofitting buildings with energy-saving measures, developing sustainable energy management systems for new & existing developments, shared electric mobility, smart street infrastructure
  • Video
  • Web services
  • Hardware
    • Amazon: Rumor: plans wall-mounted Echo device as smart home control by end 2021/early 2022; 10-13 inch, $200-250
    • Facebook: Rumor: plans Android-based smartwatch, with  health and fitness features

Regulation

  • Spectrum
    • Nkom (NO) plans 5G auction Sep 2021: 2.6 GHz band (2x70 MHz in 14 blocks of 2x5 (minimum price NOK 25m) + 1x50; cap 80 MHz), 3.6 GHz band (3400-3800; 4 blocks of 40 (minimum price NOK 100m), 24 blocks of 10; cap 120 MHz), consultation until 210409
    • Ancom (RO) plans 5G auction 21Q3 (700, 800, 1500, 2600, 3400-3800; procedures by 21Q2; plans consultation on 24 GHz band
  • FT: EC considers forced payments by platforms to publishers for using snippets in search results, news
  • EU decides on e-privacy guidelines


at 2:26 pm
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