Week 8 in Telecoms, Internet, Media

Corporate

• TIM: 20Q4 & 2021-23 Plan Update Beyond Connectivity: 1. Unique commercial proposition, 2. Best technological infrastructure, 3. Further improve operational excellence, 4. Leaner organizational model; works with 5 factories: Noovle (cloud), Telsy (cyber security), Olivetti (integrated IoT), Sparkle (int wholesale), TIM Vision (content)
• Proximus: 20Q4; guidance 2021: additional expenses (opex EUR 50m) for fiber migrations, IT transformation, cloudification, Mwingz (shared mobile network with Orange BE) roll-out (reducing capex), targets EBITDA EUR 1.750-1.775m, capex close to EUR 1.2b, to double fiber roll-out from 2020, net debt/EBITDA <1.6x, domestic rev close to 2020 level (EUR 4.285m), div 2021 and 2022 EUR 1.20 (floor); confirms #inspire2022 ambitions; opex redux CAGR 2020-22 1-2%, expands cost savings to EUR 400m over 2020-2025 (o/w half in 2020-22), targets domestic EBITDA to grow from 2022
• Vodafone
• Vodafone CZ plans strategic coop wit utility CEZ (70% state-owned)
• Vantage Towers Intention to Float (ITF) in Frankfurt March 2021 of meaningful minority stake; rumored valuation: EUR 15b, to raise EUR 4b
• Virgin Media UK (Liberty Global): CMA publishes responses from Sky & Vodafone regarding O2 merger; concerns on wholesale market for MVNOs and backhaul - O2 UK claims concerns addressed
• Akamai: Investor Summit
• 3-5 year Security targets: Application Security CAGR 20-25%, Network Security CAGR 20-25%, Security Services CAGR 10-15%, overall CAGR goal >20% (rev to more than double in 5 yr to $2.5b, addressable market $29b)
• 3-5 year CDN targets: Edge Delivery CAGR 0-3%, Edge Applications >30%, Services CAGR 1-3%, overall CAGR goal 2-5% (addressable market $18b)
• Financial targets Security: cash gross margin high 80s (2021: 86-87%), EBITDA margin high 40s (2021: 45-46%), oper margin mid 30s (2021: 34-35%), network capex low single digit (2021: 1-3%), R&D capex high single digit (2021: 8-10%)
• Financial targets CDN: gross margin high 60s (2021: 68-69%), EBITDA margin mid 40s (2021: 42-43%), oper margin high 20s (2021: 26-27%), network capex low double digit (2021: 11-13%), R&D capex mid single digit (2021: 4-5%)
• Total targets 3-5 yr: rev CAGR 6-10%, gross margin high 70s (2021: 76-77%), EBITDA margin mid 40s (2021: 44%), oper margin 30-32% (2021: 30%), capex mid teens of rev (2021: 16%)
• Roblox: Plans IPO via direct listing 210310
• Thomson Reuters: To invest $500-600m in AI, ML in 2 yr; to cut opex by $600m from eliminating duplicate functions, modernizing & consolidating technology, attrition, shrinking real estate footprint
• Twitter: Analyst Day: Goals:
• 1. Double development velocity by end 2023 (ie doubling the number of features shipped per employee)
• 2. 315m mDAU (monetisable DAU; currently 85% from brand ads, 15% from performance ads; global digital brand + performance ads market $150b, Twitter market share 3%) 23Q4 (20Q4: 192m, implies CAGR 20%)
• 3. more than double annual rev to $7.5b (2020: $3.7b) 
• Snap: Investor Day: guidance: revenue CAGR 50%; Usage stats: 5b Snaps/day, Snap Map 250m MAU, advertising 90% self-serve, digital ad market US share 2% (reach <50% of smartphone uesrs), reach 13-24 year olds >90% (US, UK, Australia, FR, NL), reach 13-34 year olds >75% (US, UK, Australia, FR, NL)

Networks

• Broadband Choices: report Internet Accessibility Index 2021 (based on speed & cost), ranking 169 countries: Denmark #1, Liechtenstein #2, US #3, NL #15
• FTTH
• Telefonica
• Telefonica Chile sells 60% stake in fiber network to KKR (Global Infrastructure Investors III Fund), $1b, to close 21Q2; to establish OA wholesale company; to expand pops coverage from 2m to 3.5m by 2023 (FTTH, 40k FTTO lines, FTTS); reduces debt by EUR 400m
• Telefonica Brazil plans fiber network spin-off to establish OA wholesale company FiBrasil, with investor (TBA 21Q1); Bloomberg: talks with Caisse de Depot et Placement du Quebec (CDPQ)
• T-Mobile NL to add 1m HP by 2025 with #2 investment partner (not Primevest), TBA 21H1, to start in 10-15 areas
• Mobile, 5G
• Ericsson Mobility Report 20Q4 update: global mobile subscriptions (8b, penetration 102%, unique active subs 6b; net adds 19m), mobile BB subs 6.5b (net adds 100m), 5G subs 220m at 130 providers (net adds 70m), 4G subs 4.5b (net adds 90m); total global mobile data traffic 60 EB/mo (+51% yoy, +9% qoq)
• EIB report Accelerating the 5G transition in Europe
• Umlaut: T-Mobile NL best network worldwide (962 points), KPN (954) and VodafoneZiggo (945) also in Top 10    
• Polsat Group sells 99.99% stake (2,069,656 shares) in Polkomtel Infrastruktura to Cellnex
• Malaysia plans government-owned wholesale 5G network via special purpose vehicle ($4b in 10 yr; also: FTTH), to adminster spectrum for all MNOs (part of digital  transformation by 2030); Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Telekom Malaysia to build & manage hyper-scale data centres & cloud services
• Google partners with Intel on cloud-native 5G; 3 main areas: 1. accelerating the ability of CSPs to deploy vRAN & ORAN solutions by providing next-gen infrastructure & hardware, 2. launching new lab environments to help CSPs innovate on cloud-native 5G, 3. making it easier for them to deliver business applications to the network edge; to develop reference architectures & integrated solutions for CSPs' for core network functions & edge network solutions
• 6G
• NGMN Alliance to focus on disaggregation, sustainability, 6G; plans to publish 6G Vision & Drivers White Paper report (version 1) March/April 2021
• EC proposes Smart Networks and Services project (incl 6G) as successor to 5G-PPP, EUR 900m
• LEO
• Starlink plans customer support center in Europe - To double speeds to 300 Mb/s & reduce latency to 20 ms later in 2021, targets global coverage by 2022; focus on low to medium population density areas

Services

• Video
• ViacomCBS: Streaming Event: Paramount+ to launch 210304
• Walt Disney
• Launches Star tab (75 series, 280 movies at launch) in Disney+ in Europe, ANZ, Canada, Singapore; content from content from ABC, Hulu, FX, Freeform, Disney Television Studios, FX, 20th Century Studios, 20th Television, more
• Disney+ price increases from 7 to 9 EUR/mo, 6 to 8 GBP/mo
• Release dates
• Rumor: Disney+ subs 40% in N America (40m), 30% in India, 30% in Europe & Latam
• Netflix: 10 Golden Globes (on 42 nominations)
• Music
• Spotify: Investor Discussion Spotify Stream On
• Facebook launches BARS app (first for iPhone, developed by NPE Team) for creating & sharing raps [a la TikTok]
• Smart city
• Las Vegas ordered smart city solutions from Siemens Advanta & Bluetech Park Properties, $7.5b in 6 yr (net-zero carbon footprint buildings within its own insular mini-city, automated multi-functional designs, renewable energy sources, photovoltaic super trees, various other interconnected innovations)
• Egypt (Administrative Capital for Urban Development) orders smart city ICT (datacenter, cloud services, to be operated by Orange Egypt) from Orange Business Services for new administrative capital (45km east of Cairo on a greenfield site, 700 km^2); 5 pillars: safety, connectivity, integration, digitalisation, replicability; to launch 21Q2
• Toyota starts smart city Woven City construction near Mount Fuji, 175 hectares, hydrogen-based, solar, robotics, AI, smart homes; appointed Bjarke Ingels Group as architects
• Stockholm ordered Univrses app to scan & map city streets from any car, transmitting & processing data in real-time to help create a more detailed picture of the state of the city’s streets, measuring everything from road damage to congestion, the location of streetlights to the state of road signage