Wednesday, July 20, 2005

Are Yahoo! investors overlooking the seasonal effect?

Yahoo! lost over 10% after hours on its Q2 report. Revenue disappointed only marginally and the guidance range was narrowed, whereby the mid-point actually came up a little.

The possible negatives seem to include a slow-down in search-related advertising revenues. Yahoo! doesn't break down the marketing fees into search and banners, but if traffic acquisition costs (TAC, fees to distribution partners) are anything to go by, it seems to be caused mainly by the well-publicized seasonal effect. Look at the sequential growth rates: 7.1% in 05Q2, 20.5% in 05Q1, 16.7% in 04Q4, 12.6% in 04Q3, 7.7% in 04Q2.

So what disappoints most? The fact that Yahoo! did not once again succeed in beating the consensus.

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