FTTH depends on regulation

The word is out, but no big surprise for our readers: KPN and privately held Reggefiber will build out FTTH nationwide in the Netherlands, spending EUR 6-7bn over 5-7 years. Vincent Dekker gets the credits for digging in. KPN and Reggefiber are planning a joint venture Glashart (originally Reggefiber FttH), with KPN taking a 41% stake + option to a majority.

Just a few comments/clarifications:

1. Conditions:

• NMa (competition authority) approval: without it, there's obviously no deal. Also, the combo would risk to be regulated at the retail level. That's a no-go too. Approval seems to be close.
  
• OPTA (the NRA) regulation: due Monday, open for a brief two week consultation. KPN and Reggefiber will realise they have to play nice, or else risk to be structurally separated.
  

2. Numbers:

• Capex: 1000 EUR/home seems reasonable for 'just' the passive network. No more DSLAMs, no VDSL2 - that saves a lot too.
  
• Timeframe: current run rate is 200k homes/annum, with room to move to 600k. That would still require 12 years for the entire 7.2m homes. I suppose they will target 75% or so, and see about the rest later (wireless?).

More next week.