Monday, October 24, 2011

KPN: what to look for in the Q3 results?

KPN will report on 11Q3 tomorrow. First, see what the Q2 report looked like:

Next: guidance:
  • 2011: EBITDA > EUR 5.3bn, Capex < EUR 2bn, FCF: up (2010: EUR 2428m), DPS: > EUR 0.85
  • 2012: FCF EUR 2.4bn, DPS EUR 0.90
  • 2013: DPS EUR 0.95
Market consensus:
  • Revenue: EUR 3303m (last year: 3378)
  • EBITDA: EUR 1320m (last year: 1408)
  • EBIT: EUR 760m (last year: 847)
  • Net result: EUR 431m (last year: 406)
  • EPS: EUR 0.28 (last year: 0.27)
  • Will guidance be maintained? How is the new strategy (Strengthen, Simplify, Grow) progressing?
  • Economic crisis (mostly felt at Getronics and KPN Business)? Getronics benefitted from the certificate problems at DigiNotar.
  • Job cuts planned: 4-5k of which 2.0-2.5k at Getronics (now: KPN Corporate Market).
  • How will the mobile international activities (Simyo) in France and Spain be ended? Will Ortel (now in 6 countries) be involved?
  • Pension fund coverage was OK in Q2 (108%), but if below 105% needs extra cash.
  • Will a share buy-back be planned (probably at the Q4 results)?
  • Where is the planned takeover of Caiway (still at NMa)?
  • Any sign yet of the new company structure as of Jan 1 2012 (i.e. new heads for Consumer Wireless NL and Consumer Wireline NL)?
  • Expectations for the spectrum auction of 12Q2 and a possible Reggefiber buy-out?
  • More deals such as the Spotify deal coming?
Mobile NL:
  • What is the impact on voice & SMS of apps such as WhatsApp?
  • What is the impact of new pricing at KPN and Hi (Telfort to follow 12Q1)?
  • How many iPads were sold?
  • How do the net adds hold up against Ziggo (+38k) and Tele2 (-16k)?
  • How does the RGUs/customer ratio develop (1.9 in Q2)?
  • How is FTTH doing (HP, net adds, XS4ALL, Telfort)? When/where will the 500 Mb/s service be offered?
  • Where is VDSL (roll-out of outer rings), both VDSL@CO and FTTC?

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