Sunday, January 26, 2014

Spectrum holdings in the Netherlands create opportunties, but not for Tele2

Spectrum in the Netherlands has been auctioned off in 2010 and 2012, leading to the situation shown in the figure. A few things stand out:
  • All holdings are roughly equal for the incumbents (KPN, Vodafone, T-Mobile).
  • T-Mobile has a lot of unpaired spectrum, which could enable TD-LTE and DSL-replacement services.
  • Tele2 has limited spectrum. This offers limited options for LTE-Advanced and Carrier Aggregation. And limited spectrum/capacity means limited options for a wholesale strategy.
  • ZUM (Ziggo/UPC) only owns 2600-spectrum, which could be used to lower wholesale costs to Vodafone. Ziggo has an MVNO on Vodafone and focuses on WiFi. An alternative would be to focus on the 2600-spectrum, offload to WiFi as much as possible, roam on Vodafone (or T-Mobile or KPN) and cancel the MVNO.

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