FTTH versus HFC: short- and long-term over- and underestimation

Paul Budde has written a very eloquent piece on the FTTH/HFC debate. I have been talking to a number of cable execs myself recently, and my attempt at The Truth is something like this:

• The Medium. In general, the shortcomings of HFC networks include limited downstream (where Docsis and other technologies help out), even more limited upstream (where channel bonding options are more limited), the medium itself (which is much less 'transparant' for signals than fiber, which is why HFC operators need several amplifiers in their access networks) and the fact that it is a shared access network (just like wireless).
• The Upgrades. HCF operators have a choice of many technologies and techniques (I counted 14!) to upgrade their networks. The trouble is, some do not apply for practical reasons, some are still embryonic and others may prove costly.
• End-game. Even if HFC operators manage to do node splits to 1 per 20 homes and fiber deep to reduce the access network to 50 meters, expand the spectrum to 3,000 GHz and apply 256-QAM, questions remain: how much does it cost, and is it enough?
• Access network. In the above case, a 50 meter access network could in practice not be too different from an in-home network based on copper or coax in most FTTH networks.
• Non-linear video. The big threat is a migration away from linear TV to non-linear HD video, in both the uplink and the downlink. Here it is important to note that people tend to overestimate the short-term and underestimate the long-term. In other words: yes, upgrading will allow HFC operators to compete for several years; and no, it may not be enough and a full FTTH migration may be necessary.

Akamai new State of the Internet report

Akamai put out its 09Q1 State of the Internet report today.

Time spent online doubled in 4 years

Instead of asking 'why should NGA networks be built', a different question is worth asking: What will people do with virtually unlimited bandwidth?

Part of the answer comes a survey on the time spent online (done by The Media Audit, as quoted by BizReport, among a US audience).

"On average, American adults are now spending just under 4 hours each day online; that is an 81% increase over 2006 numbers, according to a new report from The Media Audit. Researchers have found that the Internet now accounts for more than 30% of a 'media day' for adults in the US."

In other words: time spent online must have doubled since, let's say, 2005. And it makes up only 30% of a media day.

FTTH in the Netherlands 2009: Conference September 17

At the parent company, we are working hard to put our first conference together. It is devoted to FTTH in the Netherlands and will be held September 17 in Houten (NL), in Dutch. Our list of speakers has been finalised, and we are very proud to have such a varied (and large) band.

We are selling the report (in English) and the conference as a bundle, but you can order them separately as well.

Ramp^Rate on the cost of running YouTube

For those of you who haven't seen it yet: RampRate's report on the cost of running YouTube. RampRate puts the numbers much lower than Credit Suisse does.

Medici.tv: Live streaming classical music

The people at Atanar Technologies have been able to create a stunning streaming service of classical live concerts - not requiring a particularly fat pipe at all. It's called Medici.tv and has some wonderful (live) content. Check out this Berliner Philharmoniker concert under Simon Rattle: Tchaikovsky's Nutcracker, the 'Rakh 3' (with Yefim Bronfman) and a Sacre in the rain.

(Have you seen the Grooveshark player in the right hand column of this blog? Poor guys have been sued!)

Singapore FTTH is ahead of schedule

Singapore is moving ahead of schedule in rolling-out FTTH (NGNBN), under the iN2015 banner.

• In-building work starts in September. It is free for those who signed up and will take four hours. During the first month, 56k homes and 1k businesses will be wired. At the end of 2010, 60% coverage will be reached.
• Activation and commercial service is set to be launched sometime during H1 of 2010.

It remains to be seen how competition will develop. Currently, there are 46 service providers, but on the NGNBN there will just be a single operator, rolling out mostly GPON (some p2p to businesses). It all depends on margins; smaller margins means becoming an operator might be necessary. But new operators will not be eligible for the SID 250m subsidy that Nucleas Connect (StarHub) receives. And with 46 SP's margins will likely not be fat.

Optimum Lightpath launches HD Voice

Coffee is a typical commodity, and many people don't mind drinking it just like that (left). Came along Nescafe and Douwe Egberts/Philips, to give the world Nespresso (right) and Senseo. These products are outrageously overpriced, but equally popular.

Imagine what marketing like that could do to plain old voice service.

Optimum Lightpath (the business arm of Cablevision) may be leading the way. It is launching HD voice (over its fiber-to-the-business network; quickly after its interactive patient care service).

FTTH in the Netherlands 2009

Our FTTH NL 2009 report is finally ready. It took a few months, but we've spoken to almost 20 C-level execs from around the Dutch landscape to get past, present and future into the 45-page document. You can access the table of contents here (registration).

The report has an entirely Dutch focus, but it's written in English. Buyers will have access to our first event, scheduled for September 17 - but that will mostly be in Dutch. We have been able to contract a handful of high-profile speakers.

FTTP raises Xfone's ARPU to USD 175 (from USD 75)

From a recent Xfone press release:

FTTP is a key profitability driver for our Company and we believe there are significant opportunities for our services in select communities. Our ability to provide a voice, video and data "triple play" offering attracts customers who, because they are subscribing to three services rather than one, generate higher monthly revenue per customer. For example, Average Revenue Per User (ARPU), at March 31, 2009 for our non-FTTP U.S. customers approximated $75 per month, while ARPU for residential FTTP customers exceeded $175 per month with business FTTP customers exceeding $300 per month. Furthermore, these customers tend to stay; monthly business and residential FTTP had an attrition rate of approximately just 1% and 1.7%, respectively during the quarter.