Tuesday, January 02, 2007

2007: extending 2006 trends

Here are some thoughts on 2007, mainly as simple extensions of 2006 developments.

Telecom:
- 2006 was the year of the seeds of WiMAX (more of a supplement than a replacement) and wVoIP (to rebalance mobile pricing toward flat-fees)
- My personal favorite: Google’ efficient power supply
- Third world countries profit from the lack of legacy systems, as witnessed by WiMAX, 3G and NGN builds
- Regulation: international roaming cuts to be effective; NMa on Tiscali/KPN; one EU regulator; the rise of VDSL/FTTP (NL, D) will pressure regulators and altnets alike
- Structural separation: to happen in Ireland, Denmark, New-Zealand
- Standards, technology: 802.11n ratification, UWB certification (and a mobile handset from SKT/Staccato), CDMA Rev C, TVoW
- Auctions (spectrum, licenses): UK (WiMAX/mobile TV/UMTS), Russia (3G), Montenegro (2G/3G), Kosovo (2G/3G), Macedonia (2G/3G), France (UMTS), China (3G), Kuwait (2G/3G), Saudi Arabia (2G/3G), Chile (3G), Nigeria (3G), Cyprus (WiMAX), Italy (WiMAX), Finland (mobile TV)
- Operator launches: Etisalat in Egypt, eMobile in Japan, Vodafone BB in the UK; WiMAX from Sprint and many others; more FTTH (focus on symmetrical BB)
- Service launches: X-Series (Hutch), IPTV (KPN), TVoW, wVoIP, WiMAX; mobile and fixed operators converging by moving toward triple/quad plays
- MVNOs: many to come to market (Spain, France)
- Subbrands: telcos will copy KPN’s sucessful strategy
- For sale: Hutch 3G, Hutch Essar, Tiscali UK, FastWeb?, TDC mobile assets, PT, directories of Windstream, Endemol (Telefonica), debitel DK/FR/NL/Slovenia, TIM Brasil (TI), TIM Hellas (TPG/Apax), Alltel, Leap?
- Buyers include PE, China Mobile, Vodafone; and professional hooverers KPN, BT, FT; more ICT takeovers
- Corporate: strategy update from DT
- IPO: NextWave (from OTC to Nasdaq) and Clearwire; Oger Telecom?; Idea Cellular
- Mobile: tariffing (homezones, personalisation, flat rates) aimed at FMS, reducing churn and stimulating data/3G usage; more applications, as diverse as Disney Mobile, Nokia’s new software-based N-Gage, KPN’s AyWorld and payments/banking; advertising-based services (Blyk MVNO in the UK)
- Applications: will an operator buy an applications provider?
- The dogs of 2006: Sprint Nextel, DT, FT, TI, Telecom New Zealand

Internet:
- 2006 was the year of: video, Web 2.0 (UGC, social networks, sharing), virtual life
- Terry Semel will leave Yahoo!, Susan Decker to take over, replacement for SD at Audience unit
- Google market share is likely to peak
- eBay could start paying dividends
- Jon Miller (formerly AOL), Dan Rosensweig (formerly Yahoo!), Lloyd Braun (formerly Yahoo!) and Ross Levinsohn (formerly News Corp) are looking for jobs
- AOL could be sold
- Yahoo! could score more telco/cableco deals
- More offline deals (mobile, print, TV, radio)
- The dogs of 2006: Yahoo!, eBay, Amazon.com, Cnet, Overstock.com

Media:
- 2006 was the year of: broadband video, VoD, place-shifting
- Regulation: the US could drop the 30% audience limit on MSOs
- EMI and Warner Music are likely to merge finally; Vivendi will sell its 20% NBC Universal stake to GE
- RCN is still up for sale
- The education units of Thomson Corp and Wolters Kluwer will be sold
- Launches: a new free, ad-funded high-quality newspaper, delivered daily door-to-door in the Netherlands
- #3 movies (i.e. 2nd sequels): Spiderman, Bourne, Shrek, Pirates, Ocean’s
- Ad accounts under review: Wal-Mart, Heineken, Philips
- The dogs of 2006: Viacom, Lagardere, XM, Sirius

1 comment:

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