POST-LLU REGULATION://What about VDSL and Openreach in the Netherlands?

Coming back to OPTA's timeline note (summarized before and here also) and publication of the Analysys study, I can add a few remarks after having talked with OPTA and KPN. OPTA was rather candid about acknowledging that this would not exactly be what KPN presumably likes to hear at this stage. It looks like OPTA is backtracking, having been a little bit too generous for KPN. They should have awaited Analysys and competitor responses.

• OPTA will not enforce the Openreach model on KPN (to be announced mid February). This is what I 'read between the lines' talking to OPTA. There are two important factors behind this. Most of all, cable is hurting KPN much more than it (NTL/Virgin) does in the UK. In fact, it looks like there are only few countries where cable has this kind of strength (Belgium; Germany in due course, once the analogue/digital upgrade is done). In other words, only PTTs of Portugal and Spain et al could be at risk for having an Openreach kind of regulation. Second, KPN is mirroring Openreach as it is, judging its carrier portfolio (range of services and pricing).
• Late February really is the 'date' to watch. By then, OPTA will come up with some sort of Fully-fledged Alternative for LLU. Personally, I have a lot of sympathy for the Australian model, where 9 altnets have come together. Other than that, the situation appears pretty much deadlocked.
• KPN's official plan still is to launch VDSL services on May 1. Will OPTA block this?