Thursday, October 19, 2006

VOIP://Skype data points from eBay's Q3 report

Data are limited in the report and the conference call. No active users or paying (SkypeOut and In, Voicemail) subs, the way eBay and PayPal are illuminated.
No word on Skype for Mobile.

What is there on Skype (consolidated from 05Q4):

  • 135.9m registered subs in >200 countries, + 23m = +20% qoq.
  • Revenues $50.0m, +13% qoq. Of this, 84% is from non-US v. 86% in the previous quarter.
  • The 2006 revenue target has been lowered to $195m (originally $200m).
  • Break-even is expected during 2007, "... while making significant investments to continue to build out the ecosystem and expand the product offering. (...) We're looking at a variety of incremental revenue streams ..."
  • Sky-to-Skype minutes: 6.6 bn or -8% qoq ("summer seasonal impact") and +77% yoy.
  • SkypeOut minutes: 1.1 bn, +32% qoq and +235% yoy. Partly on the back of free promos in the US, Canada and France.
  • The ecosystem comprises 3500 developers and 400 partners, including NetGear, Belkin and Sony (the cool new Mylo) for hotspot calling.
  • Skype for Pocket PC was downloaded 5m times.
  • Trials are ongoing of Skype Me buttons on eBay en Kijiji sites. "We see great promise. (...) we see indications of a higher conversion rate when there are Skype buttons that are used."
  • Skype fuels PayPal adoption.
  • Skype is part of the US deal with Yahoo! and the non-US deal with Google for click-to-call. Trials to start early 2007.
  • The 2007 guidance will be updated in January, depending on the results of several inititatives, including "Skype momentum to the fourth quarter."

UPDATE: lowering the revenue target will likely reduce the $1.5 bn earn-out (based on 2008 targets)

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