T-Mobile US Analyst Day

T-Mobile US Analyst Day

• FCC auction 107 (C-band: 3.7-4.2 GHz)
• Round 1: 201208 - 210115
• Round 2 (assignment): 210127 - 210217
• Winners announcement 210224
• T-Mobile US
• Spent $9.3b
• Average 40 MHz in top markets (225m pops)
• Best suited for dense urban
• Total midband spectrum 292 MHz (AT&T 172, Verizon 244)
• Key Themes
1. Maintain 5G Leadership
• Ultra Capacity 5G (midband (2.5 & C-band) & mmWave), build best network, current coverage 125m pops, target 200m YE 2021, completion end 2023 (90% pops coverage)
• Extended Range 5G (low-band: 600 MHz) coverage 300m pops YE 2021, 97% YE 2022
• current 5G coverage 287m pops & 1.6m miles^2 (AT&T 0.7m, Verizon 0.4m)
• currently 85k macro sites, to add thousands + 50k small cells
2. Expand addressable markets
• expand market share in smaller/rural markets (50m HH) from 10 to 20% in 5 yr, with hundreds of new stores o/w 200 in 2021)
• improve service support, improve self-service
• to increase B2B market (50m lines) share from 10 to 20% in 5 yr
• to launch in-home Home Broadband plan March 2021, target 7-8m Home Broadband subs in 5 yr
3. Unlock merger synergies
• $1.3b in 2020, target $2.7-3.0b in 2021, to grow to $7.5b per yr (originally $6b) from decomissioning macro sites (35k YE 2022 for $3b synergies) + avoiding cost synergies ($2b) + SGA savings ($2.5b)
• synergies to NPV $70b (up from 43)
4. Better financial results
• SR 2023 $61-62b (up from 60), $70b by 2026
• core adj EBITDA 2023 $28-29b (up from 26), $36b by 2026
• capex 2023 $9-10b, 2026 $9.5b
• FCF 2023 $13-14b (up from 10-11), $18b by 2026 (down from 9-12)
• shareholder returns 2023-26 cumulative up to $60b
• Other
• current consumer market (310m subs) share 30%
• currently 7500 T-Mobile branded stores (postpaid) + 500 Metro branded stores (prepaid), plans store-in-store at Best Buy (1000) & Walmart (2200)
• current B2B market ($27b in 2020, CAGR 8% to $40b in 2025; 50m lines in 2020, CAGR 4% to 60m in 2025)
• current home BB market $90b