Saturday, March 13, 2021

T-Mobile US Analyst Day

T-Mobile US Analyst Day
  • FCC auction 107 (C-band: 3.7-4.2 GHz)
    • Round 1: 201208 - 210115
    • Round 2 (assignment): 210127 - 210217
    • Winners announcement 210224
    • T-Mobile US
      • Spent $9.3b
      • Average 40 MHz in top markets (225m pops)
      • Best suited for dense urban
      • Total midband spectrum 292 MHz (AT&T 172, Verizon 244)
  • Key Themes
    1. Maintain 5G Leadership
      • Ultra Capacity 5G (midband (2.5 & C-band) & mmWave), build best network, current coverage 125m pops, target 200m YE 2021, completion end 2023 (90% pops coverage)
      • Extended Range 5G (low-band: 600 MHz) coverage 300m pops YE 2021, 97% YE 2022
      • current 5G coverage 287m pops & 1.6m miles^2 (AT&T 0.7m, Verizon 0.4m)
      • currently 85k macro sites, to add thousands + 50k small cells
    2. Expand addressable markets
      • expand market share in smaller/rural markets (50m HH) from 10 to 20% in 5 yr, with hundreds of new stores o/w 200 in 2021)
      • improve service support, improve self-service
      • to increase B2B market (50m lines) share from 10 to 20% in 5 yr
      • to launch in-home Home Broadband plan March 2021, target 7-8m Home Broadband subs in 5 yr
    3. Unlock merger synergies
      • $1.3b in 2020, target $2.7-3.0b in 2021, to grow to $7.5b per yr (originally $6b) from decomissioning macro sites (35k YE 2022 for $3b synergies) + avoiding cost synergies ($2b) + SGA savings ($2.5b)
      • synergies to NPV $70b (up from 43)
    4. Better financial results
      • SR 2023 $61-62b (up from 60), $70b by 2026
      • core adj EBITDA 2023 $28-29b (up from 26), $36b by 2026
      • capex 2023 $9-10b, 2026 $9.5b
      • FCF 2023 $13-14b (up from 10-11), $18b by 2026 (down from 9-12)
      • shareholder returns 2023-26 cumulative up to $60b
  • Other
    • current consumer market (310m subs) share 30%
    • currently 7500 T-Mobile branded stores (postpaid) + 500 Metro branded stores (prepaid), plans store-in-store at Best Buy (1000) & Walmart (2200)
    • current B2B market ($27b in 2020, CAGR 8% to $40b in 2025; 50m lines in 2020, CAGR 4% to 60m in 2025)
    • current home BB market $90b



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