Friday, October 21, 2005

VoIP according to Forrester

Here's Forrester's view on VoIP, that I do not quite agree with. Would they ever have actually used Skype? Here are some of their dubious claims:
  • Voice calls will never be absolutely free.
  • VoIP isn't really mature today.
  • Slow braodband uptake.
  • VoIP will capture 30% of the residential fixed voice market in 2010 and won't approach 100% until 2020.
  • Global portals like MSN, AOL, Yahoo! will never be able to claim national consumer VoIP market leadership in any Western European country.

He does have a point though when it comes to incumbents and VoIP:

  • Pro-active incumbents launched flat-rate PSTN calling.
  • By launching VoIP services, ADSL bundles, and enhanced functionality services, incumbents are fighting the pure plays on their own turf.
  • Incumbents have many advantages in brand names, customer base, billing, financial strenght.
  • The best pure plays can hope for is to be acquired or to license their often interesting technology and service concepts.

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