Wednesday, January 29, 2020

KPN 19Q4: overview of details

The KPN share is down 6% on disappointing revenues, partly due to phasing and increased FTTH investment. Also, somewhat lower EBITDA outlook for 2020.

The results details (except the financial and operationals of the factsheets):


  • Divestments impact -EUR 2m on rev, -EUR 6m on EBITDA AL.
  • Cost savings +EUR 38m to EUR 141m of 2019-2021 program of EUR 350m from simplification and digitalisation (IT stacks from 20 to 2, core networks from 5 to 1).
  • FTTH HP additions 120k in 2019, roll-out currently in 70 areas, technology choice G-PON & XGS-PON.
  • FTTH HA net additions 19Q4: 14k
  • VDSL-FTTC roll-out (nearly completed) 2019: +1500 cabinets, +390k HP.
  • FTTH vs FTTC in 2019: NPS +2, ARPU +EUR 6, convergence +6 pp, churn -40%.
  • Mobile site modernisation (Massive MIMO, 5G-ready): 640 in 19Q4 (increases speed 30%, enables 3G switch-off).
  • All-IP migration on track, 175k lines to go (enables SDH/TDM switch-off);
  • Business portfolio (1): KPN Small Business for SoHo market, KPN EEN for SME market, KPN Smart Combinations and KPN Smart Integration for LE/Corporate market.
  • Business portfolio (2): 1. Access and connectivity, 2. Cloud and workspace, 3. Security and business continuity.
  • Integrated IT-activities of RoutIT, Divider, Startready, InSpark.
  • 2020: adjusted EBITDA AL stable to slightly up, capex EUR 1.1b, FCF growth >= MSD, DPS 13.0c.
  • 2019-2021 maintained: adjusted EBITDA organic growth, capex stable EUR 1.1b per yr, FCF CAGR MSD, progressive DPS; capex mix shift from 35 to 50% for access, mobile network 5G-ready by YE 2021, add 300k converged HH, increase SIMs/HH 10%, converged postpaid base 70%, cost reduction to serve KPN EEN 25%, cost reduction IT 75%.

Monday, January 20, 2020

Comcast / NBCUniversal Investor Day for Peacock: all specs on launch dates, business model, tiers and content

Investor Day for Peacock

Launch dates
  • 200415 for Comcast Xfinity X1 (video) & Flex (BB-only) subs
  • 200715 generally in the US
  • International launch later
Business model
  • Focus on ads, ad load 5 min/hr
  • Focus on HH (all genres)
  • Tiers
    • Peacock Free: limited programming, 7500 hr; with ads
      • free for all
    • Peacock Premium With Ads: complete programming 15k hr incl. live sports and early access to late-night shows; with limited ads
      • free for Comcast and Cox subs (24m)
      • 5 $/mo for non-subs
    • Peacock Premium: incl. non-televised Premier League soccer games; ad-free
      • 5 $/mo for Comcast and Cox subs
      • 10 $/mo for non-subs
  • With originals (series and films)
  • Live sports
  • Platform based on Sky tech
  • 30-35m subs YE 2024
  • Cumulative EBITDA investment 2020-'21 $2b
  • Outlook 2024: 30-35m active subs, ARPU $6-7, revenue $2.5b, adjusted EBITDA break-even