Week 40 in Telecoms, Internet, Media

Networks

5G

• Philippine Telegraph and Telephone Corp (PT&T) plans FWA trial
• Orange trials smart factory with Schneider Electric in Le Vaudreuil: AR for maintenance, telepresence robot
• 3 Ireland launches 5G at 315 sites, pops coverage 35% (to add 500 early 2021), with smartphones; uses 3.7 GHz band and repurposed 4G spectrum; with Ericsson
• Xiaomi launches 8K TV (Mi TV Lux Pro 82-inch TV) with 5G - And Mi 10T smartphone series
• Samsung Electronics (RAN, Core, MEC) & Microsoft (Azure) plan e2e cloud-based Private 5G solution for retail stores, smart factories, entertainment venues
• Telstra launches FWA over 5G (first invitation-only): 5G Home Internet, 85 AUD/mo for 500 GB/mo, incl modem, typical download speeds 50-300 Mb/s
• BT orders 5G RAN from Nokia to replace Huawei
• Elisa orders 5G RAN (and Core) from Ericsson, and RAN from Nokia
• Telenor SE launches Private 5G (3.7 GHz) at Atlas Copco (Sickla plant in Stockholm), with Ericsson
• T-Mobile US expands 5G-2500 to 121 new cities, total 210
• Eir expands 5G to 340 sites
• MoC Israel hands 5G licenses to Partner, HOT (Altice Europe), Pelephone (Bezeq); Pelephone launches service at 150 sites (200 GB/mo for 50 ILS/mo, 500 GB/mo for 60 ILS/mo), Partner and HOT at 250 sites (500 GB/mo for 60 ILS/mo, 1 TB/mo for 70 ILS/mo)
• Rakuten Mobile launches NSA 5G (midband & mmWave) in 6 areas, max 870/110 Mb/s (from Nov 2020: max 2.2 Gb/s down, 275 Mb/s up), with Rakuten-branded smartphone (BIG, 6.9 inch) & Aquos R5G; launches unlimited plan Rakuten UN-LIMIT V (4G & 5G), 3000 JPY/mo ('with transformational innovation, we are passing on significant savings to our customers'), with loyalty program; to launch SA 5G 21Q2
• ZTE demos broadcast over 5G NR (30 MHz in 700 band)
• Telekom DE, DFMG Deutsche Funkturm, Kathrein Broadcast, Porsche, Rohde & Schwarz, SWR (project lead), Technische Universität Braunschweig – Institut für Nachrichtentechnik launch 5G broadcast trial in Stuttgart & Heilbronn for in-car use
• DoCoMo demos multi-vendor CA (3.7 & 4.5 GHz bands), with Fujitsu, NEC
• Nokia demos network slicing; plans first deliveries end 2020
• Nokia reaches 100 5G operator deals & 160 commercial 5G engagements (incl trials)
• Telefonica DE launches 5G in 5 cities (Munich, Berlin, Hamburg, Cologne, Frankfurt) at 150 sites (450 antennae), to add 10 new cities Oct 2020; targets k sites (antennea incl 3.6 GHz band) YE 2021
• Batelco (Bahrain) reaches near-nationwide coverage (95%)
• Vodafone CZ launches NSA 5G in 5 cities (Prague, Brno, Usti nad Labem, Jesenik, Karlovy Vary), with DSS
• O2 UK (Telefonica) plans expansion to 100 cities YE 2021 after merger with Virgin Media (Liberty Global)

WiFi: WiFi 7 (802.11be) to launch 2024, max 46 Gb/s, max 320 MHz

Services

Telecoms

• Fixed telephony: Siminn to phase out PSTN by 2021
• Chat: Facebook: Launches cross-messaging between Messenger and Instagram
• TV: Virgin Media IE launches Virgin TV 360 platform (STB, follow-up to Horizon): updated UI, all screens, with voice search & control

OTT

• Video
• Walt Disney
• Disney+ plans Drive-In Festival in Santa Monica (Cal) 201005-12: screenings incl premieres (The Right Stuff, Clouds)
• Closes Disney Channel in UK, content moves to Disney+
• Lowers Premier Access price for Mulan to $7 on Disney+; available for non-subs from 201006 on Amazon Prime Video, iTunes, Google Play, VUDU, FandangoNOW
• WarnerMedia: Movie The Witches (Robert Zemeckis, Anne Hathaway) premieres in HBO Max 201022, skips US theater release due to corona virus, int theater release 201028
• PMO (= PTV Telecom, Opencable, Asociación de Operadores de Telecomunicaciones Locales de Andalucía (ACUTEL)) launches Zapi; tech from Mirada (IRIS solution), based on Android
• Music: Amazon: To add remastered tracks to UHD or 3D Audio (Dolby Atmos, Sony 360RA) from UMG & WMG for Amazon Music HD (currently 5m tracks in HD, 60m in HD)
• Print: Google: Launches News Showcase program (as part of Google News Initiative), $1b: 3rd-party paywalled news production for Google News from 200 publishers in UK, Australia, Canada, Argentina, Brazil, DE
• Commerce: Amazon Launches Amazon Explore (platform & marketplace), public beta: live virtual experiences with tour guides, store owners, other local experts in countries around the world; hosts set price (mostly $10-200); launches with 86 experiences in 16 countries

Hardware, technology

• Google: Launch Night In event: launches
• Google TV (OS, UX, formerly Android TV: guide for love TV & apps, recommendations, search; for Chromecast, Android TV, later other devices)
• Chromecast With Google TV ($50; remote control, 4K, HDR 60 fps, Dolby Vision, voice control; to add Google Stadia support 21H1), promo: $90 incl 6 mo Netflix
• Nest Audio (smart speaker, $100, successor to Google Home; 2 will create stereo sound)
• Pixel 4a 5G ($500, EUR 500, GBP 500) & Pixel 5 (5G; $700, GBP 600; with 3 mo free Stadia & YouTube Premium & Google One (100 GB)), both with Extreme Battery Saver mode
• Hold For Me (feature of Google Assistant for while waiting on hold, powered by Duplex tech)
• new editor for Google Photos on Android
• Amazon: Launches Amazon One tech (verification by hand palm scanning) in Amazon Go store Seattle

Corporate

M&A

• Fore Freedom: Majority stake acquired by Morrison & Co [Vincent Gerritsen] from Ancala
• MasMovil: Polygon Global Partners files appeal against takeover approval
• NTT: Offer for DoCoMo free float (34%), 3900 JPY/share = JPY 4t = $38b

IPO

• fuboTV: Sets IPO price at $9-11, to sell 15m shares, ticker FUBO
• Playboy: Plans IPO through SPAC merger with Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp (MCAC), ticker to change to PLBY, to close 21Q1
• Roblox: Rumor: plans IPO early 2021, valuation ~$8b
• Airbnb: Rumor: to raise $3b from IPO, to file Nov, IPO Dec 2020

Other

• Walt Disney: Cuts 28k jobs at US theme parks (Disneyland, Walt Disney World) over corona virus
• Grupo Prisa: To refinance EUR 1.2b debt

Regulatory

Spectrum

• ARCEP (FR) starts Phase 2 of 5G auction (3.4-3.8 GHz) - Ends 201001 raising EUR 2.786b from 310 MHz after 17 rounds, 10 MHz blocks priced at EUR 126m (to be paid over 4 yr), 50 MHz for EUR 350m (to be paid over 15 yr [see 200102]); Iliad wins 70 MHz for EUR 602m; Orange wins 90 MHz, EUR 854m (total holdings: 257 MHz); Bouygues Telecom wins 70 MHz, EUR 602m; Altice FR wins 80 MHz, EUR 728m (total holdings 245 MHz); positioning auction follows Oct 2020
• BIPT (BE) awards final 4G spectrum (2.6 GHz band) to Citymesh, valid 15 yr, EUR 15m

Google

• To block election ads in US after polls for US Presidential Election (201103) close
• WSJ: small search engines (such as DuckDuckGo, Ecosia) lose auction for position as search engine on Android; DuckDuckGo only appears in Bulgaria, Croatia, Iceland, Liechtenstein
• WSJ: makes concessions to EU to get Fitbit acquisition approved: no discrimination against wearables manufacturers that also use Android; Fitbit to continue health-data deals with 3rd-parties (such as Strada); Fitbit data not to be used for targeted ads

Facebook

• Sues BrandTotal (Israel) and Unimania (US) over data scraping (name, user ID, gender, date of birth, relationship status, location information, other) using browser extensions (UpVoice and Ads Feed)
• WSJ: Facebook files doc (14 pages) to counter company break-up ('A ‘breakup’ of Facebook is thus a complete nonstarter' because of costs)

Twitter: Plans Birdwatch: moderation tool to fight misinformation (to provide notes as context, report tweets)

Platforms

• FT: EU Digital Services Act forbids platforms qualifying as gatekeepers to pre-install exclusively their own apps, nor require from 3rd-party OS or CPE manufacturers; uninstalling pre-installed apps must be possible; data collected may not be used to target users unless shared with rivals; blocking rivals from offering services outside platform not allowed h
• Singapore plans Cybersecurity Labelling Scheme (cyber security as the equivalent of providing fresh water & sewerage services)

Ziggo: preview 13Q1

Ziggo reports on 13Q1 tomorrow, April 16, at 7:30 AM local time.

Relevancy to investors is limited, since the Liberty Global share price drives Ziggo's stock. Apart from the performance relative to consensus and the outlook (can it be maintained?), this is what to look for on the consumer market:

• Analog TV losses and conversion to digital. Analog penetration will drop below 15%, bringing analog switch-off discussions into the spotlight. It's the last quarter including subscribers on the Kabelnoord network.
• Network utility rate: dropping to just over 60%.
• Broadband market: net additions, penetration to cross the 70% mark.
• Mobile market: not quite reaching 100k (YE 2013: 33k).
• Organic revenue growth (excl. the Esprit takeover): further improvement expected in line with management goals coming from broadband and telephony.
• EBITDA margin: may drop after heavy ad spending, but management target is flat for the year.
• Capex: guidance EUR 370 for the year.

When it comes to the business market, it remains to be seen if there is any growth at all. Excluding Esprit, revenues have been flat for a while.

Further operational details:

• How is the WiFi network developing. How many homespots? Are public hotspots being added? Usage stats.
• Usage stats on Ziggo's apps (TV app, voicemail app and the new Bapp VoIP app).
• Netflix impact, both on traffic and revenues.
• Other subscriber numbers, such as HBO subs and digital pay-TV subs.
• Commercial plans, campaigns.

Ziggo: stepping into the same marketing pitfall plaguing the FTTH market

Cable marketing against FTTH is based on services, not infrastructure. This makes sense for the simple reason that consumers want services, not infrastructure. They couldn't care less about the underlying network. As long as the services are great. The network is the operator's problem. If it's broke, they will fix it.

FTTH providers base their marketing on infrastructure, and they appear to have some success in making the network the consumer's problem. "You want a future-proof network." Or: "gimme fibre". But it makes no sense from a marketing point of view.

Now, Ziggo, for its Ziggo Mobile marketing, is stepping into the same pitfall. They focus on infrastructure (WiFi) in their marketing instead of services.

What both FTTH providers and Ziggo Mobile should focus on is services. The network message should be directed to their shareholders. "Look, we are using superiour infrastructure, which reduces our opex."

Lessons for Ziggo:

• Fixed:
• Keep up the good work in the fixed-line area. Capex will keep rising - not the consumer's worry, but the shareholders' worry.
• Maybe give FTTH another thought.
• Mobile:
• Refocus Ziggo Mobile's marketing. Stop talking about WiFi. Talk about price instead, because lower opex can and indeed will be passed on to consumers.
• Reconsider Ziggo Mobile's network. WiFi is for off-loading and indoor coverage. But maybe LTE-2600 can be the core of the service offering. Cancel the MVNO on Vodafone. There's nothing like owning your own network.

Ziggo: piecing together an OTT mobile strategy

Fixed-line operators are looking to (re)enter the mobile market, despite threats from OTT, other competition, regulation and a stretched balance sheet. BT bought spectrum and is now looking for a partner. Virgin Media UK has an MVNO and plans a VoIP app. Ziggo appears to take its own route, involving WiFi, femtocells, an MVNO and a VoIP app. Here's how it may work.

• WiFi. All customer modems will be opened for use by Ziggo subscribers. It's much like FON (a KPN partner), except Ziggo has a dedicated piece of spectrum reserved for use by fellow Ziggo subs. As a result, the modem owner will not see his (shared) spectrum reduced by strangers.
• Femtocells. One might think that Ziggo, UPC and the other cablecos could allow each other to place femtocells outside their own footprint in order to reach nationwide coverage. But Ziggo is taking femtocells further and plans to expand the (very limited) footprint of its subscriber modems. It intends to roll-out femtocells to locations outside subscriber homes, possibly lamp posts or anywhere near the existing fiber backbone or backhaul from street cabinets. It now becomes clear why Ziggo bought LTE-2600 spectrum.
• MVNO. Ziggo already has an MVNO in place, with Vodafone NL. Customers do not need to sign up, but then they won't have full mobility. That would
  require a SIM card (hence subscribing to the MVNO). Ziggo will probably go SIM-only, and possibly data-only, if they manage to create a solid:
• VoIP app. At the recent Q1 call, management promised a VoIP app for 14H2.

There are plenty of challenges: a saturated mobile market, rolling out femtocells on a large scale, creating seamless handover between WiFi and 3G/4G, doing a stable and customer-friendly VoIP app. And hope that the network supplier (Vodafone) doesn't give in to the temptation to block mobile VoIP, violating Dutch net neutrality rules.

The mobile strategy looks a lot like an instrument to reduce churn. But it also has the potential to grow into a business and a new revenue stream. For this to happen, subscribers will actually need to join the MVNO (hence creating a quad play, mostly).

All in all, Ziggo is developing an interesting strategy to add mobile by going over-the-top.

3-D and mobile data offloading can use some 'standardisation'

Some new technologies or applications need standardisation before mass market adoption can take off. Apple is a famous example of an exception: it uses its own proprietary technologies and walled gardens and gets away with it. For such diverse things as 3-D and mobile data offloading, some form of standardisation seems to be necessary.

3-D: Prospective buyers are probably well informed and early on in their decision making are confronted with three different solutions:

• Active glasses; a standard for this version is under development at Panasonic and XpanD.
• Passive glasses: Philips has a set.
• Glasses-free 3-D: Nissho Electronics and Dimenco have launched a set in Japan.

Innovators may move in, but even early adopters may remain on the sidelines until the dust settles.

Mobile data offloading. Options are manyfold and operators the world over are making different decisions, but many appear to be on the sidelines - while data traffic explodes. Is there any operator that really knows which option is best? This is not about standardisation, strictly speaking, but consensus on what the best network architecture is, would be nice. The options:

• WiFi: either free from restaurants/hotels; free for mobile and/or broadband subs; for-pay (e.g. Boing); free/shared (FON).
• Femtocells, picocells.
• Rely on 4G and the right spectrum (Real Wireless for Ofcom: 230-450% efficiency gain; TeliaSonera at Investor Day: 8x more efficient). LTE-Advanced is poised to offer speeds up to 1 Gb/s.
• All new wireless architectures from Alcatel-Lucent (lightRadio), Ericsson (Antenna Integrated Radio), NSN (Liquid Radio).
• TD-LTE to roll out a cheap data network.
• Network sharing, possibly even with a wholesale-only partner (such as LightSquared in the US, or perhaps UK Broadband in the UK).

Consumer clouds and lockers: implications for operators

What is cloud computing?

• Internet-based computing, remote computing
• Often subscription-based or free
• On demand
• Managed by third-party
• Optional: automatic updates/back-ups, synchronisation across devices

OTT players (B2C):

• Apple: iCloud, iTunes, iPhone, iPod, iPad.
• Google: Android, Chrome, Chrome OS, Chromebook, Google Music, Gmail, Google Docs, Google Apps, YouTube, Picasa, Google Fiber, cloud connect for Microsoft Office.
• Microsoft: Office 365, Lync, SkyDrive, Azure.
• Amazon: Cloud Drive, Cloud Player, Kindle, Amazon Web Services.
• Yahoo!: Yahoo! Mail, Flickr.

Services (B2C):

• Any file: Amazon Cloud Drive, Box.net
• Music: Spotify, Google Music (beta), Apple iCloud
• Photos: Flickr
• Video: Netflix, YouTube, Uitzendinggemist, BBC iPlayer, UltraViolet
• Presentations: SlideShare, SlideRocket
• Social networking: Facebook, LinkedIn, Hyves
• OS (turn iPad or Chromebook into fully-fledged computer): Chrome OS
• Office: Microsoft Office 365, Google Docs/Apps, Zoho
• Individual file storage (for sharing): RapidShare, MegaUpload, zShare
• Back-up, remote access: Dropbox, Mozy, Carbonite

Telco acquisitions (B2B), bringing data centers and services to the table:

• NTT Com: Dimension Data, Frontline Systems
• Verizon: Terremark
• CenturyLink: Savvis
• Windstream: Hosted Solutions
• TDS: Visi
• Cincinatti Bell: CyrusOne
• Time Warner Cable: NaviSite
• Telefonica: Acens Technologies

Operator initiatives (B2B):

• Netflix is a big AWS (Amazon) customer for its Watch Instantly streaming service.
• KPN launches SME Workspace: software and services from KPN CyberCenters at 40 EUR/employee/month (May 31 2011).
• Telstra to invest AUD 800m over 5 years; 1 new datacenter, modernising existing, building new apps and a management portal (June 16 2011).

Developer platforms (B2B):

• Salesforce.com: Force.com
• VMware: Cloud Foundry
• Microsoft: Azure
• Amazon: BeanStalk
• Google: App Engine

Computer vs. cloud:

• As the computer/files/hard disks are cut out of the ecosystem and the cloud replaces them: a. connectivity becomes more important, and b. the computer ecosystem (Microsoft, Intel) stands to lose.

Infrastructure and connectivity:

• Syncing/back-ups/updates will be done over WiFi, so wireless will not be burdened (for now). WiFi becomes even more important. Ultimately, WiFi implies fiber.
• Other network elements (CDN's, data centers, servers) may also become more important. However, Apple (and Google) are using their own private networks.
• Operators have control over the last mile, but Apple (and Google) may control all the other network elements. Next battlegrounds: WiFi, FTTH (as in Google Fiber).
• Amazon Web Services provides cloud services to smaller players.
• Hosting, co-location, housing.

Data:

• Enormous lock-in for Apple (and Google) will work in their favour. They control the subscriber's data. Will operators have an answer and provide these services: put all your data in our cloud, with automatic back-up and syncing?
• Apple's system is closed: plays on iOS devices only.
• Apple and Google are going OTT, while operators have their own managed and secure infrastructure.
• Is email (Hotmail, Yahoo! Mail, Gmail) the basis of developing a cloud strategy?

Other players:

• Do cloud-based players such as Facebook, Dropbox, Zoho, Flickr, SlideRocket, Netflix, Evernote have a future?
• Ericsson is in a way the biggest operator in the world, through its managed services. They can be a partner for telcos, which can then focus on sales & marketing.
• Is UltraViolet still relevant? It's open, runs anywhere.

General:

• Cloud negatives: security (privacy), reliability (access), latency. Also: digital media fragmentation across multiple clouds and devices.
• Cloud positives: better functionality and flexibility, faster and automatic updates (everything as a service), cost savings (lower capex/opex), shift from capex (hardware) to opex (subscription).

Benefits for consumers:

• Lower cost (SaaS, Slim PC)
• Buy once, play anywhere (streaming)
• Sync across devices
• Share among family members

What is the future role of a telco?

• Infrastructure? Last mile (fixed and wireless) is too expensive to replicate
• Cloud computing? Local and managed datacenters offer better security.
• Services, sales & marketing? OTT players are building direct-to-consumer relationships, with credit card billing.
• Telcos are squeezed: competition, regulation, device manufacturers, OTT players.

Apple iCloud limitations:

• iOS devices only.
• No TV/video.
• WiFi only.
• Video calls (FaceTime) limited to on-net over WiFi.

World's first large-scale 802.11n network

Morrisville State College claims the world's first large-scale 802.11n network. It has 720 access points from Meru Networks. Capacity (speed) should be 130-150 Mb/s per basestation (shared). The MSC reports 1200 simultaneous users at peak times. It's still early days, but improvements relative to 11a/b/g are noticeable.
The report also mentions Duke University (a Cisco user) and Carnegie Mellon (which uses Aruba Networks and Xirrus gear) as 11n test sites.

I suppose this is the next step toward ubiquitous broadband, with any type of wireless technology for the last-few-meters. The WiFi camp will now be looking to add mobility (part of the 11r standard).

WiFi gearing up

This article contains the timeline for 802.11r, the WiFi standard enabling handover and thus mobility. The IEEE targets certification early 2008.

The interesting thing to me is that by adding mobility, WiFi could take away even more traffic from cellular networks. Wireless operators embracing WiFi could use this to stave off potential competition from WiMAX networks.

StarHub trials pfingo, a WiFi service

TeleGeography reports StarHub, the #2 telco and #3 mobile operator in Singapore, is trialing a new platform, dubbed pfingo, among 30 users for 3 months.

Pfingo is open to subs from SingTel and MobileOne as well and works on any handset. Users receive a new number and for a fixed monthly fee are allowed unlimited on-net voice minutes (pfingoTALK), as well as pfingoACTIVE (not sure what that is) and pfingoMAIL.

Pfingo uses WiFi connectivity.

Comment: Given the size of the nation and the state's broadband targets, it looks like pfingo's WiFi network will have full coverage. At a decent pricepoint, it will not only cannibalize StarHub's own voice revenues, but possibly those of its competitors as well. It could signal a new round of pricing pressure. Of course it remains to be seen how well it works and how it deals with full mobility (handover). I wonder how it is supposed to work on any handset. It looks like the service's purpose is to offload data traffic and free-up some capacity for StarHub's voice services.

Update (March 23): Check out this post. StarHub is taking Vodafone's 'Starfish' quite a few steps further.