What next for KPN in 2015?

Let's look at the big picture:

• KPN heavily outsources and offshores functions. This implies de-emphasising the network, at least at the management level. Things are left to vendors such as Ericsson. NFV/SDN will only add to this. As a consequence, the emphasis is more on services.
• Market shares are high in general, leaving little room for domestic takeovers.
• There is ample cash, even taking into account debt reduction (€ 2 bn), pension fund (€ 200 mn), the Reggefiber buy-out (€ 770 mn) and cash outflow at Reggefiber (a total of probably half a billion or so over the next few years). The sale of E-Plus left KPN with € 5 bn and a 20.5% stake in Telefonica Deutschland (value € 2.5). Further, Base (€ 800 mn or more) and iBasis (pocket change) can be sold. In all, the war chest could be € 5.5 to 6 bn.
• KPN ended its pan-European MVNO strategy a few years ago.
• KPN wasn't willing to sell to America Movil (at 8 €/share), a very unfortunate decision.

Based on this, KPN is more of a hunter than a target (E-Plus was the company's prime asset). Assets for sale:

• Netherlands: Caiway, Delta Cable, T-Mobile NL,  Eurofiber (all impossible because of concentration issues), Film 1 (no interest), M7 Group.
• Europe: Bouygues Telecom, Orange Swiss, Sunrise, Yoigo, fibre operators in Germany & Italy, Telefonica Deutschland.

Creating value, other than focusing on the core businesses, could involve a major strategy shift:

• Structural separation. Spinning off is a good idea. Network & services are different animals. KPN could retain a stake in the NetCo. Vodafone and Tele2 could buy into the NetCo to speed up FTTH overbuilding.
• Acquire M7 Group (compare AT&T/DirecTV). This will strengthen KPN's position on the TV market. Vodafone and Tele2 may also be interested.
• Gain control of Telefonica Deutschland to re-enter Germany, but now as a full-service provider.
• Buy fibre operators abroad to export the expertise built up in Reggefiber.
• Buy independent mobile operators across Europe. A tie-up with Proximus could be considered. Or even TeliaSonera, bundling together more incumbents.
• Takeovers in other parts of the value chain (compare Telstra/Ooyala or Verizon/EdgeCast).
• Expand in content through a broadcaster: SBS or RTL (compare Comcast/NBC).
• Sell the company. Possible buyers: Altice, private equity.

Announcements to be expected for the Dutch market

What's up for 2014 in NL?

• KPN starts to roll out vectored VDSL from February 2014 to 2.1m HP. FTTH to roll out to 250k HP more to a total of almost 2m. There supposedly is a trial of LTE Broadcast and from April FON will be integrated. A new CFO will be appointed. E-Plus will be sold, Reggefiber will be consolidated and America Movil will probably sell its stake.
• Tele2 is rolling out its LTE network, but will probably launch in 2015. Plans are to unbundle FTTH, not with a time-frame. A new CEO will be appointed.
• Vodafone is also set to unbundle FTTH and appears to be closer than Tele2. It will appoint a new MD for Vodafone Business.
• T-Mobile will appoint a new CEO.
• UPC will launch the Horizon Phone app.
• Ziggo will probably launch a similar app. It remains to be seen what the next step in mobile will be.
• NPO will launch NPO Plus, a paid version (better quality, fewer ads) of its catch-up service.
• NPO, RTL and SBS will launch NLziet, bringing together their respective catch-up services (extended and non-free).