Verizon responds to ARRA in a predictable way

Dave Burstein reports in his newsletter that Veizon's FiOS buildout 'is dying'. Expansion into new areas is suspended. Verizon now focuses on areas where it already has agreements and expects to reach the 18 million homes passed by year-end 2010 - as promised before.

People are now complaining over being left in the dark, since 10 million Verizon customers may never see FiOS come to their premises. Such as those in Alexandria.

My comments:

• You can't blame Verizon. This is how listed companies work. They have a focus on the short term. If you don't like it, change the system (ARRA is one answer, nationalisation is another).
• Verizon is apparently seeking ARRA funds. Again, don't blame them. Looks like a sound business decision. This is exactly what you get when you throw government money at the market: it distorts the market and companies respond in a predictable way.
• One thing the FCC should be looking at, is promises made by Verizon. In itself, it shouldn't be illegal to brake a promise, unless the promise itself got you funding or something like a regulatory holiday.
• Another thing the FCC should prevent is Verizon trying to block Alexandria from building munifiber (should they want to), either with ARRA or Google funds.

Kabel-X: Copper-to-fiber with limited digging

Take a look at this: FTTH made cheap & easy. Kabel-X touts 'Copper to Fibre without excavation'. Taking excavation (or really: replacing it with some other labour) out of the equation will "save your business up to 200,000 euros per kilometre compared to conventional digging".
Besides, the copper can be sold at 20-30 $/meter and will no longer attract individuals with unhealthy intentions.
Kabel-X already has a long list of customers: Deutsche Telekom, BT, KPN, Swisscom, Telekom Austria, O2, UPC, Elisa. I am not sure if the cost advantages are already incorporated in the FTTH business plan calculations these operators no doubt all have done. So far, they all maintain that the business case is not viable, but the lack of support from investors seems to be the true reason why FTTH is not yet widespread.

Any way, if the technology really works, it could have far reaching consequenses, but I see a couple of limitations.

First, fiber may not necessarily be put in the ground at the exact same location where the old copper is. This is especially true when it comes to connecting street cabinets to MDF locations. A valued reader recently asked me how KPN works at this, since it is moving from LLU/ADSL to FTTN/SLU/VDSL for its All-IP network. KPN confirmed that in many cases the copper stays in the ground for this reason (at least until it needs to be removed for regulatory reasons).

Second, when it comes to the last mile (FTTH, esp. active ethernet for point-to-point), regulation has to be in place - one way (no sharing, as is the case in the US) or the other (open access seems to be here to stay in Europe). GPON architecture (point-to-multipoint) may run across a completely different route than the existing copper network.

Third, Verizon (FiOS) attracts a some criticism for ripping out copper wiring in the last few feet (but this doesn't seem to be where the technology could be used - unless you have a really big place). A switch back to DSL is not possible, even if this seems more of a regulatory concern than something anybody would really want (customer satisfaction over FiOS is very high).