Showing posts with label eBay. Show all posts
Showing posts with label eBay. Show all posts

Thursday, March 26, 2009

Shopping time for eBay

At its recent analyst day, eBay laid out plans for all its units: MarketPlaces, PayPal and Skype.
PayPal and Skype combined are targeted to equal the MarketPlaces business in terms of revenues by 2011 (up from 35% of eBay in 2008). Skype should double its revenues almost to $1bn in 2011 (from $551 in 2008). Skype's margin must be grown to 18-20% (from 11% in 2008). PayPal too has has for doubling revenues and restoring margins to the 18-20% range.

An interesting part of the statement was that eBay now targets the secondary market, estimated to be worth $500bn worldwide, including liquidation inventory.

Now, coincidentally I ran into just the site that eBay could single out for an offer: Troostwijk. The company was founded in 1930 and they are just the place to go if you are looking to fill your newly acquired real estate. I have no financials, but somebody registering and tracking what's going on for a while, could get a pretty clear picture of the value of the merchandise passing hands on the site. And the interesting thing is: such auctions deliver the auctioneer a hefty 16% fee, with not too much risk and a self-explanatory web site.

Tuesday, March 04, 2008

It's all about customer happiness


EBay is a case in point proving that running a great business ultimately boiles down to just one thing: make your customers happy. Causing a sellers revolt is exactly what is wrong over there. If the basic laws of economy still hold, this is the time for a (disruptive) competitor to rise to the challenge.

Of course, Amazon.com is a candidate too.

Thursday, July 26, 2007

Is Amazon's opportunity over twice eBay's?

Check this sheet, comparing Amazon.com and eBay, based on the 07Q2 quarter. (I had to estimate the eBay employee numbers.)

Is Amazon.com too expensive, or is there more to come? I suppose Amazon has a much bigger market opportunity (retail shifting online) than eBay (auctions must be much closer to maturing). However:


  • 1. Both show continued growth. Is the acceleration at Amazon going to last?

2. The same goes for their core revenue (Media at Amazon, Marketplaces at eBay).

    3. Margins at eBay are much fatter, but Amazon is showing a lot of growth. Where are Amazon's margins headed?

4. On most metrics, Amazon is about twice as expensive. How does that compare to growth?

I think the valuation differential is a little stretched, but I do believe Amazon.com demands a premium.


Thursday, June 21, 2007

Turmoil in Yahoo!/Semel aftermath keeps eBay merger option alive

I believe all the turmoil around Yahoo!, after CEO Terry Semel quit, fortifies the case for a merger with eBay, which I defended before.
Keep in mind that Google is the perennial enemy to both. Microsoft on the other hand is carefully treated as an equally beleaguered colleague, rather than as a competitor.

The recent animosities by no means endanger a Yahoo!/eBay merger:
  • Google was ready to invade eBay's Live event, which made eBay pull away from AdWords. Instead, eBay could be a bigger Yahoo! partner.
  • Google attacked Microsoft over Vista's desktop search. The case was settled.
Nor do the recent advances, quite to the contrary:
  • Yahoo!'s problems keep any merger speculation alive, particularly with Microsoft.
  • Now the Times of London reports that News Corp floated the idea of swapping MySpace for a 30% Yahoo! stake. I believe the implied MySpace valuation must be too high for Yahoo!, which proved quite frugal when approaching Facebook. Also, I believe that Yahoo! needs to be a 'content neutral' aggregator, not a News Corp vehicle.
  • However, the eBay/MySpace talks are still ongoing.
  • Yahoo! has not responded to Ron Burkle's try to involve Yahoo! in a counter offer for Dow Jones, News Corp's much desired prey.

In other words, I think Yahoo! is carefully aiming for eBay. At the same time, News Corp must be kept at an arm's length.


Thursday, May 10, 2007

How Terry and Meg are marrying off Yahoo! and eBay

It is interesting to see what happened at Yahoo!, six months after Brad Garlinghouse’s ‘Peanut Butter Manifesto’ was leaked to the Wall Street Journal. In general, he called for focus and job cuts.

It looks to me like Yahoo! is quietly implementing Brad’s underlying recommendations. Focus is in fact increasing (but as a content aggregator Yahoo!’s coverage remains naturally wide). Job cuts could be on the cards next. Still, Yahoo! seems pretty phlegmatic in executing its grand plan. Take for instance Facebook. As Mr. Zuckerberg is looking for more and more money, a deal with Yahoo! is getting less and less likely.

As Yahoo! is focusing and eBay is expanding its branch of e-commerce operations (see below), speculation over increased cooperation or even a merger may continue.

So what action have we seen at Yahoo? First of all, a restructuring into three groups was launched: Advertiser & Publisher, Audience and Technology. Some high-profile vacancies were created in the process. As Susan Decker seems to be heading for the CEO job when Terry Semel retires later this year, the company is trying to hire a CFO and an Audience CEO.

Second, Yahoo! got focused on improving its search engine and monetisation efforts under the ‘Panama’ banner.

Third, it is defending the display market that Google is entering. Yahoo! is building ‘brand universes’ for large advertisers and it acquired Right Media. Also, it entered into a large newspaper cooperation.

Fourth, Yahoo! continued the ‘relaunch’ of its verticals, lastly Yahoo! Finance and Yahoo! Travel. At the same time, the company has started discontinuing other sites, such as the North American Auctions business and Yahoo! Photos (which will migrate to Flickr). Yahoo! Bookmarks and del.icio.us could be merged, but the former is simply too successful to discontinue. New verticals include Yahoo! Food.

Fifth, Yahoo! continually expands its community features. It bought blogging services MyBlogLog and Wretch (Taiwan), as well as Bix.com (runs contests). The vastly popular Yahoo! Answers teamed with Answers.com. A deal with Reuters will see uploaded photos and videos appear both on Yahoo! and Reuters.com. The new Yahoo! Pipes allows for the creation of mash-ups.

A different way of seeing increased focus is by looking at what does NOT offer: no satellite images such as Google Earth and Microsoft Virtual Earth; no Office look-alikes such as Google’s Docs & Spreadsheets and its soon-to-launch presentations tool; offline efforts are largely limited to wireless and print (no radio, TV, outdoor and in-game, as we have seen at Google); e-commerce activities are limited to certain countries.

The latter easily leads to some eBay speculation.

First, as Yahoo! is focusing, eBay is in fact expanding without creating more overlap. The e-commerce activities comprise not only the core auctions business, but a growing list of related services and sites: Buy It Now, eBay Express, Shopping.com, Rent.com, Craigslist, Marktplaats.nl, Kijiji. Recently eBay added StubHub (ticket sales) and possibly StumbleUpon (recommendations).
As a side note, it is quite easy to list a few takeover candidates for eBay to grow further within the e-commerce sector: single-item retailers (Woot.com in the US, iBood.com in Europe), travel (Expedia, Orbitz, Travelocity), securities trading (E*Trade, Zecco.com), swapping (La La Media) or even Amazon.com.

Second, Yahoo! and eBay are already partnering on a number of services (search, ads, payments, communication).

Third, strong positions in the Far East make a nice fit as well, as overlap is limited.

Fourth, eBay is aiming for increased community activity (see StumbleUpon) - a core strength at Yahoo!.

Would Terry Semel and Meg Whitman feel any urge to do a large deal before retiring or moving into politics?

Tuesday, February 13, 2007

OFFLINE://Internet on the move



Wednesday, February 07, 2007

MONETISATION://MySpace playing divide & conquer after all

While Google and MySpace are renegotiating their search/ads deal, eBay may be stuck in the middle. According to the Wall Street Journal (which doesn't necessarily mean it's true), Google would like keep eBay off of MySpace. Google and eBay compete not only for commerce leads, but for listings and payments as well.

Under a MySpace/eBay deal, the latter would add 'peer commerce' and payments to the former (and what about Skype?).

The interesting thing is in the negotiations part of the story. A MySpace/PayPal deal was on the cards long ago. It looks like it would allow MySpace to stay in control and demand a large cut of any revenue sharing deal by using a basic divide & conquer strategy after all.