Sunday, January 31, 2021

Week 4 in Telecoms, Internet, Media


  • KPN
  • Orange: Partners with Sanofi, Capgemini, Generali to establish e-health JV platform, funding EUR 24m, to launch June 2021 (virtual), Dec 2021 (physical)
  • TIM: Establishes Noovle: cloud & edge services for enterprises [see 200527], to be based on 17 datacenters, targets rev CAGR 20% to EUR 1b by 2024 with EUR 400m EBITDA
  • Telia: 20Q4 final, Annual Report 2020, motto Dare Care Simplify; Strategy update Reinventing a Better Telia; establishes Telia Asset Mgt (towers & fiber); focus on raising mobile ARPU (from improved customer experience & 5G monetisation), FMC (reduces churn, upselling potential), ICT (new rev streams), FWA; to establish separate Infra Cos (to crystalize infrastructure value & accelerate investments); Outlook 2021-23: service rev  growth LSD, adj EBITDA growth LSD-MSD, capex/sales from 17% down to 15%; leverage target 2.0-2.5x, div floor SEK 2.00 with ambition of MSD growth
  • Elisa: 20Q4
  • Vodafone
  • Liberty Global: Plans more M&A deals, interested in VOO (Wallonia), MNO Ireland
  • RTL
  • Vivendi: Closes stake sale to Tencent 210129, UMG plans IPO 2021/22
  • Vimeo: Raises $300m equity from T Rowe Price Group and Oberndorf Enterprises at $5b valuation; spin=off planned 21Q2; 200m users in 190 countries, 1.5m paying subs
  • Facebook: 20Q4; outlook 2021: commerce ongoing shift to online and consumer demand shifts from services to products positively impact advertising, yoy rev growth 21H1 stable to modestly accelerating, 21H2 pressured (due to reversal of corona virus trends), ad targeting headwinds from platform changes (iOS 14 from March 2021), 2021 total expenses $68-73b, capex $21-23b, tax rate high teens; expands SBB by $25b
  • Twitter: Acquires newsletter publishing platform Revue (NL, 6 employees)
  • AT&T: 20Q4; charges $15.5b on pay-TV, $650m on WarnerMedia
  • Verizon: 20Q4


  • FTTP
    • TIM: Proposes co-investment in OA FTTH via FiberCop to Agcom: fiber to 1610 munis in grey & black areas (urban & semi-urban) to connect 75% of premises by 2025; atrchitecture to balance eficiency, infrastructure competition, simple customer migration; to comply with EU Telecom Code
    • CETIN: Avege download speed 2020 105 Mb/s (+25%); to expand FTTP/FTTB to 150k YE 2021, 1m by 2027 
    • Virgin Media plans FTTP at new homes built by Barratt Developments, 15k in 2021 - Rolls out FTTP in Shrewsbury - Launches FTTP in Debdale (Greater Manchester), 5k HP
    • GlasVoorNop starts roll-out in Noordoostpolder (10 villages, total 47k pops), first in Creil; RSP: KPN (incl Solcon, XS4ALL, RoutIT), T-Mobile (incl Tele2), Online (= Canal+), Youfone, Tweak, Kliksafe, Freedom Internet, Oxxio, NEM, Budget, ONVI, Qonnected,, hallo,
    • Google Fiber launches 2 Gb/s in Salt Lake City and Provo (Utah) and in Atlanta (Ga)
  • Mobile network sharing
  • 5G
    • Ericsson launches 5G RAN slicing, proposes slicing for high-revenue generating use cases (cloud gaming, smart factories, enhanced video, smart healthcare), enables 1 ms latency at RAN (with SA 5G)
  • 6G
    • EU launched Project REINDEER (REsilient INteractive applications through hyper Diversity in Energy-Efficient RadioWeaves) as part of 5G PPP, funding from Horizon 2020, 210101 until 240630, Ericsson to develop multi-antenna-based smart connectivity platform, with KU Leuven, Linköping University, Lund University, etc; RadioWeaves technology is key deliverable: fabric of distributed radio, compute & storage, to enable large-scale intelligent surfaces & cell-free wireless access to offer capabilities far beyond future 5G networks, to offer capacity scalable to quasi-infinite, perceived zero latency & interaction with a large number of embedded devices
  • LEO



  • Auctions
    • Ofcom (UK) delays auction (700 & 3.6-3.8) by 2 mo over corona virus to March 2021
    • MNUs HU (Magyar Telekom, Vodafone, Telenor) extend 900 & 1800 licenses by 15 yr until 370409, HUF 150b (EUR 418m); Magyar Telekom 16 MHz in 900 & 40 MHz in 1800; Telenor 26 MHz in 900 & 40 MHz in 1800; Vodafone 2x9 MHz in 900 for HUF 22.7b & 2x20 MHz in 1800 for HUF 26.4b
  • Switching

Saturday, January 30, 2021

Netflix: all the originals and licensing announcements of Week 3-4

Movies - scripted
Series - scripted
Series - unscripted
Movies - unscripted

Incitement becoming a major force in Platform manipulation

 Of all the forms of propaganda going around on Internet Platforms (disinformation, fake news, hate speech, manipulation), recent examples are cases of incitement:

  • Twitter: The Capitol Hill attack by Trump supporters
  • Telegram: looting in the Netherlands, under the pretence of dissatifaction with a pandemic induced curfew
  • TikTok: a deadly challenge, fatal for a 10 year old kid in Italy
  • Reddit: massive attack on short sellers of GameStop stock and more

The Five Ps, a taxonomy of the Problems with Internet Platforms. One originates at the users of the Platforms (their Players), four are tied to the Platforms themselves

  • Players
    • Propaganda, disinformation, fake news (reviews, ads, artists), hate speech, overstepping the boundaries of freedom of speech, incitement (hatred, violence), defamation, propaganda, algorithms, AI, manipulation, addiction
  • Platforms
    • Privacy, collection, use and trading of personal data (as currency for targeted advertising)
    • Power abuse (mostly in the wholesale markets), antitrust, monopolies (duopolies, oligopolies), collusion, vertical and horizontal integration/consolidation, service bundling, the double hat problem of vertically integrated platforms
    • Payment evasion of taxes and copyright dues
    • Politics, cybersecurity (espionage), geo politics, trade wars, border wars

Sunday, January 24, 2021

Week 3 in Telecoms, Internet, Media



  • Telefonica DE: CMD: Strategy update; confirms outlook 2020; raises div to 18c over 2020, sets 18c as floor for 2021-23; 3 growth pillars: 1. Mobile growth: grow market share in rural areas & reinfoice urban, 2. Smart bundling (fixed & mobile, incl FMS) based on tech agnostic approach, 3. Attack in B2B (esp SME) opportunity; takes 10% stake in FTTH venture Unsere Grüne Glasfaser, to invest EUR 100m in FibreCo; target full 5G coverage (>100 Mb/s) by 2025, to sunset 3G 2020-21; to add 1500 built-to-suit (BTS) mobile sites (via Telxius) by 2025; guidance 2020-22: cum rev growth >= 5%, margin higher, capex/rev 17-18% in 2020-21, normalising from 2022; to be climate neutral by 2025
  • Deutsche Telekom: Merges T Infra NL (3150 towers & rooftops; rev EUR 60m, EBITDA AL 30m, plus EUR 250m loan) with Cellnex NL (984 towers acquired 2016-17 for EUR 492m) for 38% stake to be held by newly established DIV, total 4314 sites (incl 180 build-to-suit sites), DT to deconsolidate, Cellnex expects rev contribution EUR 63m, FCF to increase EUR 30m, T-Mobile NL to lease for 15 yr (automatic renewal 10 yr); establishes Digital Infrastructure Vehicle (DIV, independent mgt, focus on European digital infra (fiber, tower, datacenters, open to institutional investors, DT to hold 25%), DT contributes EUR 400m, Cellnex EUR 200m, with dealflow agreement for future transactions in European towers (Cellnex to co-invest for 51% stake) `
  • Orange: Establishes Orange Concessions, 50/50 with consortium of La Banque des Territoires (Caisse des Dépôts), CNP Assurances, EDF Invest, call option for Orange to take control & consolidate, to close end 2021; co-control; 23 PIN networks, 4.5m FTTH lines (plugs) (built or to-be-built), valuation EUR 2.675b [ie sells 50% stake for EUR 1.33b]; roll-out & maintenance by Orange - To decide on towers 210218
  • Elisa: Establishes JV with Lounea (western Finland, #4 operator) to create nationwide FTTP network
  • VOO (= Nethys (= Enodia), Brutele): Rumor: Brutele (owned by 30 munis) to sell to Enodia
  • Telia: 20Q4
  • ProSieben: 20Q4 prelim; Mediaset Spain raised stake by 3.43% to 13.18%
  • Netflix: 20Q4    
  • Sunrise UPC: Integration leads to reorganisation and job cuts (significantly less than 30%) (Sunrise had 1763 FTE, UPC CH 1500)
  • Amazon: CIRP: Amazon Prime reaches 142m subs in US YE 2020 o/w 52% on annual tier
  • Iliad: Targets carbon neutrality by 2035, 10 pledges
  • Tele2: Launches new sustainability strategy, 4 focus areas: 1. Advance circular economy to combat climate change, 2. Maximize potential through an inclusive and diverse workplace, 3. Boost innovation for sustainability, 4. Protect children in a connected society



  • Finder (Australia): 85% of users stream online o/w 36% experience buffering weekly, 16% daily
  • France gvt allocated EUR 570m for FTTP rural expansion (total EUR 3.57b)
  • Ookla Speedtest Global Index (Dec 20): global average FBB 96/52 Mb/s, MBB 47/13 Mb/s; FBB: Thai #1 (308), Sing #2 (245 Mb/s), HK #3 (227), RO #4 (191), CH #5 (189), NL #26 (136); MBB: Qatar #1 (178), UAE #2 (178), S Korea #3 (169), China #4 (156), Australia #5 (113), NL #9 (101)
  • EC approves public funding for FTTI (12k schools) in Italy, EUR 325m
  • FTTH


  • Telekom DE and Telefonica DE to share several hundred sites (incl active network) for 4G (800 band) in grey areas in 2021 - Also between Vodafone DE and Telefonica DE
  • Agcom (IT): average data consumption 20Q3: 9.2 GB/mo (+48%)
  • 5G
    • Inventec and Affirm (Microsoft) partner to develop smart industry solutions
    • Salt Home (FWA over 5G & 4G; with Gigabox: outdoor antenna, WiFi 6 router) coverage reaches 2m pops (>50%); max 400 Mb/s over 4G, 1 Gb/s over 5G
    • Mobily (KSA) demos network slicing (RAN, Core & transport; separates critical traffic from general internet traffic) for FWA (over 5G and 4G) in Riyadh, with Nokia; enables prioritising customers (service tiers for consumer or enterprise) and premium services (voice, data, gaming, home office apps etc)
    • SmarTone (HK) launches 5G SmarTransport Safety Monitoring System, with Route 3: provides video footage from tunnels and highways to control room (motion-detection cameras, ML/AI analytics
  • LEO



  • Youfone: To expand to BE on Proximus networks (fixed & mobile), to launch April 2021
  • Pluto TV (= ViacomCBS): Expands to FR 210208, 40 channels; next to expand to IT, end 2021
  • Lionsgate: Expands Lionsgate Play to Indonesia
  • Newsplayer+: Launches in UK; live news channels, 2.50 GBP/mo; channels: Al Jazeera, Bloomberg TV, Bloomberg’s Quicktake, Euronews, Newsmax, Africanews, Germany’s DW-TV, France 24, China’s CGTN, India’s NDTV 24×7, Israel’s i24, Russia’s RT, Australia’s Ticker, Turkey’s TRT, US network NewsNet
  • Critics’ Choice Awards TV nominations: Netflix 26 (6 for The Crown, 6 for Ozark), HBO 22

Smart city

  • Turk Telecom launches smart city platform (50 services: next-generation transportation, energy, environment, health, life, security) in 9 cities



  • Subtel (Chile) plans 5G auction 210208: 700 MHz (2x10 MHz), AWS = 1800 & 2100 MHz (2x15 MHz), 3.5 GHz (150 MHz), 26 GHz (400 MHz), valid 30 yr; Claro, Entel, WOM interested, to be awarded 26 GHz spectrum without tender
  • PTS (Sweden) raises SEK 2.32b from auction (2.3 & 3.5 GHz, valid 25 yr until 451231); Telia SEK 760m for 120 MHz in 3.5 GHz band, Net4Mobility (= Te;e2, Telenor) SEK 666m for 100 MHz in 3.5 GHz band, 3 Sweden SEK 491m for 100 MHz in 3.5 GHz band, teracom SEK 400m for 80 MHz in 2.3 GHz band


Wednesday, January 20, 2021

Netflix 20Q4: better than expected, no more need for fund raising, market cap approaching USD 250b

Netflix 20Q4 results
  • Shareholder letter
  • Presentation
  • Global paying subs 204m, net additions 8.5m
  • ARM USD 11.02 (-0.4%)
  • Revenue USD 6.64b (+21.5%)
  • Operating income USD 954 million (+108%), margin 14.4%
  • Net income USD 542 million (-7.6%)
  • Delta cash USD -183m
  • Cash & equivalents at end USD 8.24b
  • Cash spent on streaming content USD 3.85b (TTM USD 12.5b)
  • 2021 oper margin 20% (raised from 19%), to grow margin average 3 pp/yr
  • 2021 FCF around break-even (raised from between -1b and break-even)
  • "We believe we are very close to being sustainably FCF positive"
  • "We believe we no longer have a need to raise external financing for our day-to-day operations"
  • To repay 210201 bond maturing out of cash, to maintain $10-15b in gross debt
  • Plans SBB (as in 2007-11)
Viewing stats first 4 weeks
  • The Midnight Sky 72m
  • Over the Moon 43m
  • We Can Be Heroes 53m
  • Holidate 68m
  • The Christmas Chronicles: Part Two 61m
  • Just Another Christmas 26m
  • Barbarians 37m
  • Sweet Home 22m
  • Selena: The Series 25m
  • Alice in Borderland 18m
  • Lupin expected 70m
  • The Queen’s Gambit 62m
  • Currently >500 titles in post-production or launch preparation
  • To provide update on LT stock performance in each Q4 report
  • To roll out Shuffle Play globally 21H1
  • Share price after close +13% to USD 565, market cap USD 249b

Sunday, January 17, 2021

Week 2 in Telecoms, Internet, Media


  • Deutsche Telekom: FD: plans to sell T-Mobile NL, EUR 4-5b, PE candidates: Apollo, Cinven, Providence, Warburg Pincus, Apex - Handelsblatt: to sell T-Mobile NL or sell minority of T-Mobile NL + IPO of infrastructure [Deutsche Funkturm]
  • Orange: Spins off Orange Ventures, allocation EUR 350m; focus on cybersecurity, digital enterprise, mobile financial services. e-health
  • Telefonica: Telxius Telecom (Telefonica Infra 50.01%, KKR 40%, Pontegadea (Amancio Ortega) 10%) sells Europe & Latam units (30722 towers in ES, DE and Brazil, Argentina, Peru, Chile; EBITDA AL TTM EUR 190m) to American Tower, EUR 7.7b cash (pro forma 30.5x EBITDA AL), capital gain EUR 3.5b, reduces net debt EUR 4.6b, reduces leverage 0.3 pp; ATC to expand tower network by 3300 in DE, Brazil for $500m by 2025
  • BT: Establishes BT Digital 210401, appoints Harmeen Mehta (formerly Bharti Airtel, BBVA, HSBC, BoA) to head as CTIO: accountability for IT, digital innovation, BT-wide business transformation, data & product strategy - Appoints Howard Watson CTO: network strategy, network transformation & service platforms, cyber & information security; establishes Technology Advisory Board with Daniela Rus, Mike Young, John Stecher, Shweta Sharma, Steve King, Dame Wendy Hall; CSTP Mike Sherman exits, roles move to Digital and CFO
  • Vodafone
    • Vodafone UK transfers 50% stake in Cornerstone (Telefonica O2 UK 50%; 14200 macro sites, 1400 micro sites; 2019/20 EBITDA AL GBP 111ml leverage remains 3.0-4.0, distributes 100% of excess cash) to Vantage Towers (total 82k macro sites in 10 countries), reaches Master Services Agreements for 8 yr; to add 1200 new macro sites by 2025 & 1950 new passive tenancies by 2024 (FY EBITDA GBP 17.5m by 2026E)
    • Vodafone IE launches sub-brand Clear Mobile: low-cost, SIM-only, online-only; 13 EUR/mo for unlimited voice, text, data (max 5 Mb/s)
  • Bouygues Telecom: Capital Markets Day (Ambition 2026) - Details
  • Elisa: Acquires camLine Group (industrial software) for smart factory applications
  • MasMovil (KKR, Cinven, Providence): Nowo (Portugal, won 1800 spectrum for EUR 54m) to enter PT market with 4G network
  • Gamma: 20Q4 trading statement, expects 2020 EBITDA above forecast; full results 210323
  • Snap: Acquires StreetCred (platform for location data)
  • Poshmark: Prices IPO at $14, raises $277m from 6.6m new shares, valuation $3.5b (fully diluted)
  • Affirm: Prices IPO at $49 (range was 41-44), valuation $11.9b, raises $1.2b by selling 24.6m shares; symbol AFRM - First trade at $90.90, closes at $97.24 (+98%) 
  • Walmart: Plans fintech company, with Ribbit Capital



  • Deutsche Telekom: Launches Access 4.0 platform (A4; software-defined, disaggregated, highly automated, microservice-based), first for FTTH line in Stuttgart, also supports other telco edge (incl Open RAN); BNG (Broadband Network Gateway) functionality developed by RtBrick



  • United Internet: To start mobile network construction summer 2021
  • GSA: 5G ecosystem at 201231: 559 devices (278 smartphones, 108 FWA devices, 26 hotspots, 9 laptops, 8 tablets) announced across 20 form factors from 108 vendors o/w 335 (233 smartphones, 35 FWA devices, 16 hotspots, 1 laptop, 6 tablets) commercially available
  • Vodafone Greece launches as #3 5G network in Athens & Thessaloniki, target 40% pops coverage by 220331
  • NBN demos long-range mmWave FWA over 5G, with Ericsson, Qualcomm, Casa Systems: 1 Gb/s at 7.3 km
  • 3 UK plans Private 5G at Port of Felixstowe, GBP 3.4m, with Cambridge University, Blue Mesh Solutions, Ericsson, Siemens (part of UK gvt 5G Trials & Testbeds Programme); remote-controlled cranes via CCTV, IoT sensors, AI to optimise the predictive maintenance cycle
  • O2 UK plans 5G mobile based platform to broadcast events in stadiums and other venues, with Digital Catapult, Global Wireless Solutions, Rohde & Schwarz, DTG; receive GBP 1.3m from UK gvt (5G Create); total investment GBP 2.3m
  • Nokia partners with GCP (Google) to jointly develop cloud-native 5G core solutions to develop the network edge as a business services platform for enterprises


  • Starlink receives Ofcom (UK) approval for terminals (CPE); plans UK trial: 84 GBP/mo for 100-150 Mb/s, equipment GBP 440
  • Eutelsat raises EUR 200m debt from EIB to roll out Konnect VHTS (Very High Throughput Satellite) programme
  • OneWeb downsizes target LEO constellation to 7k sats (from 48k) - Raises $400m from SoftBank Group (350) & Hughes Network Systems (50); total raised $1.4b fully funds 648 sats by YE 2022



  • AT&T closes AT&T TV Now (originally DirecTV Now: OTT-TV) for new subs; adds AT&T TV tiers without contract: Entertainment Plan 70 $/mo (65 channels), Choice Plan 85 $/mo (65 chanels + RSN + HBO Max for 1 yr), Ultimate 95 $/mo (130 channels), Premier 140 $/mo (140 channels); plans contain less storage (20 hr; 500 ht for 10 $/mo), no Android TV STB
  • Community Fibre (London) launches TV service, with Netgem, 10 GBP/mo for BB subs: 135 channels, streaming (VOD (30k hr), catch-up (25 services)), 4K STB`; also fixed telephony service, unlimited nat fixed & mobile calls 10 GBP/mo
  • Swan (MNO Slovakia) plans Anroid TV based IPTV service for STB and smart TV


Bundling with non-telco service


  • Jazztel (= Orange ES) launches BB-only 600/600 Mb/s service, 30 EUR/mo (add-on unlimited nat fixed & mobile calls 3 EUR/mo)

Smart city






  • Google
    • Google Search sued by Rumble over “unfairly rigging its search algorithms” to place YouTube above Rumble in its search results
    • NOS: royalties rev 2012-2019 through NL to Bermuda EUR 128b, avoided EUR 38b in US taxes, paid EUR 25m in tax in NL
  • Amazon: Connecticut starts investigation of e-books market - Sued in CALS for driving up prices 30% in collusion with Big 5 publishers (Hachette, HarperCollins, Macmillan, Penguin Random House, Simon & Schuster)
  • Facebook:
  • Capitol Hill attack 210106:
    • Platforms ban POTUS Trump after assault on Capitol Hill (210106): Reddit, Amazon (AWS), Twitch, Shopify, Twitter, Google (Play Store), YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat, TikTok, Apple (App Store), Discord, Pinterest, Stripe
    • PGA Tour
    • Facebook halts political spending
    • Facebook removes content containing 'stop the steal'
    • Twitter updated coordinated harmful activity policy, deleted 70k Qanon accounts
    • Parler sues Amazon (AWS)
    • List of worries over content moderation
    • Reports: downloads for alternative social networks (MeWe, CloutHub, Signal, Telegram, Rumble) rise
    • YouTube bans Trump for 1 week
    • Amazon removes Qanon merchandise
    • YouTube blocks Trump channel for uploads and live streams
    • Snapchat permanently bans Trump's account from 210120
    • Airbnb cancels bookings in Washington DC week to inauguration day 210120
    • Google suspends political ads in US around inauguration
    • Bumble (social net) (re)instates political filter to block terrorists involved in Capitol Hill attack (also: Tinder, Match)

Netflix: all the originals and licensing announcements of Week 1-2

Movies - scripted
Series - scripted
  • Animated series Kid Cosmic premieres 210202
  • Orders season 3 of The Umbrella Academy (10 episodes)
  • Series Lupin (France, Omar Sy, 5 episodes) premieres 210108
  • Series Bridgerton to have 8 seasons
  • Bonding: Season 2 premieres 210127
  • Snowpiercer Season 2 (Sean Bean, 10 episodes) premieres 210126 (also on TNT)
  • Orders series The Lincoln Lawyer (David E Kelley, 10x60 min) from A+E Studios
  • Orders series Feria (Spain)
  • Movie Below Zero (Spain) premieres 210129
  • Series Firefly Lane (Katherine Heigl, Sarah Chalke) premieres 210203
  • Comedy series The Crew (about NASCAR, Kevin James) premieres 210215
Movies - unscripted
Series - unscripted

Saturday, January 16, 2021

Proximus Fiber Update - and where it came from

The Proximus FTTH strategy evolving from 2016 up to 2021. Presentation and Q&A for the latest session (Fiber Update) available.

20161216: Fiber for Belgium

  • FTTH expansion from 2017, currently 6k homes on active fiber in greenfields; recently switched to GPON for brownfields in Brussels; 99% (very) satisfied; pilot in Veurne; FTTO YE 2016: 6100 businesses; plans FTTP expansion from 2017 (currently 6k business FTTO subs)
  • Fiber capex EUR 3b in 10 yr; total capex 2017-2019 1b EUR/yr, capex/rev remains <18%, fiber to account for 1/3 of capex by 2019; net debt/EBITDA remains ~1; div stable at 1.50 EUR/share; first in Antwerp, Brussels, Charleroi, Gent, Namen, Roeselare; focus on dense areas that also have many enterprises; target 85% of businesses (p2mp GPON); >50% of homes (p2mp GPON); LT target 100% coverage in urban areas; also Deurne, Hasselt; FTTO: 40% after 3 yr, 65% after 5 yr, >85% after 10 yr; FTTH: 7% after 3 yr, 18% after 5 yr, 40% after 10 yr, >50% after 15 yr; churn down, ARPU up; consumer: regain market share; business: upsell, retaining customers, putting them on a higher value product and enabling adjacent IT solution sales
  • Outside cities: no FTTH but average distance to optical node (fiber distribution point) to be reduced to 350 meters (currently 530 meters); FTTC + ultra-vectoring at 17-35 MHz (250 Mbps at 300 meters, 200 Mbps at 400 meters); end-to-end fiber only for enterprises; possibly for MDUs, but preference for fiber technology: GPON, wall mounting + underground (~50/50), in time decommmission copper
  • Short-term opex (maintenance) per customer reduction from fiber 20% (lower power, less real estate, longer equipment lifecycle); also avoid renewal costs of copper; plans opex savings EUR 150m 2015-19 (from the 2015 level), total gross savings EUR 400m; densify mobile network in dense urban areas
  • Cost per home EUR 1,000; cost of in-home wiring is included; focus on dense areas, wall-mounting, pre-termination of homes that are passed (~70%; Belgium has relatively few MDUs and few ducts on the distribution side; machinery needs to scale up, targets roll-out speed at peak >4% of total homes per year; capex flattish after 2019: enterprise (more expensive per customer) will go down; consumer becomes more expensive per home; to reduce IT spending from SDN/NFV, standard software solutions; fiber is not regulated; may look into co-investment, however:: "So it’s fully funded by Proximus and we prefer to do it on our own and be the owner of the fiber that we lay in these areas." fiber against Docsis 3.1: speed, symmetry, latency, reliability; house value in the Netherlands increased 3% from FTTH

20200331: Capital Markets Day: #inspire2022

  • 4 pillars: 1. accelerate connectivity products & services, 2. digital transformation initiatives to improve NPS, opex CAGR negative 1-2%, remove all legacy IT by 2025, 3. achieve profitable growth by 2022, partnerships (Micosoft Azure), 4. embed sustainability & digital inclusion throughout the organisation
  • To launch 5G 200401
  • To expand FTTH plan by 800k HP to 2.4m by 2025 (instead of 2030), increases capex to 1.3b EUR/annum until 2025, financed by higher debt (EUR 600m), assets sales (EUR 700m), dividend reduction 20% (to min EUR 1.20 2020-2022), partnerships
  • To launch FTTH (1 Gb/s) subscription add-on, 15 EUR/mo
  • Establishes Network Business Unit (wholesale)
  • Targets 2020: FCF (EBITDA - capex) 780-800m

20201127: JV with EQT Infrastructure V [via Delta Fiber]

  • To close 21Q1
  • To connect 1.5m premises in medium dense Flanders by 2028 to open FTTP
  • To be owned 49.9% by Proximus, EQT 50.1%
  • Target 4.2m premises (= 70%) in BE by 2028 remains; interim target 2025 raised 30%

20201208: Fiber in Brussels

  • Plans full FTTH coverage (600k HP) in Brussels (Brussels Hoofdstedelijk Gewest) by end 2026
  • Partners Actiris, Bruxelles Formation, VDAB Brussel (600 jobs)
  • Target 4.2m HP YE 2028 (currently 400k, rollout in 16 cities)
  • Plans 50k in Brussels YE 2020, to add 100k/yr from 2022
  • Ultimate coverage target BE 70%

20210115: Fiber Update

  • Ownership
    • Eurofiber JV (0.5m HP in medium dense Wallonia by 2028) to be 50.1% owned by Eurofiber, Proximus 49.9%
    • May consolidate EQT and Euriber JVs by acquiring 2 shares; has option to add 10% in EQT Flanders JV
    • Blended ownership of Belgian FTTP 76% (80% incl extra 10% in Flanders JV)
  • Coverage
    • Reached 460k FTTP premises in 16 cities (80 building streams) YE 2020
    • New target to 4.2m HP (70%) by 2028
    • 100% owned FTTH in dense Flanders & Wallonia 100% of Brussels: 2.2m HP by 2028
    • Target >150 building streams in 2021, agreements in place with >30 cities; to add ~600k premises/yr in 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
  • Capex/Opex
    • Brownfield costs per HP to be reduced 10% in 2021-23, further 10% in 2024-26
    • Partners expertise used for less dense areas
    • Plans copper phase-out max 5 yr after fiber launch
    • Capex peak in 2022 <EUR 1.3b; JVs save EUR 500m capex 2020-25
    • Opex/customer -55%
    • Fiber/non-fiber capex to rebalance from 20/80 in 2019 to 40/60 in 2025 on own network
    • JV funding: partners equity injections 20-30%, 60-70% from JV debt, remainder (10-15%) from EBITDA
  • Technology
    • JVs deploy passive AON networks (P2P), allowing unbundling (3rd-party active layer)
    • Proximus to build own active layer in 100% owned network
  • Commercial
    • Adds wholesale services on all FTTH networks
    • Speed-based retail pricing, from 100 Mb/s: 350 Mb/s +5 EUR/mo, 500 Mb/s +11 EUR/mo, 1 Gb/s +15 EUR/mo
    • Fiber gains Residential: ARPC +10%, gross gains x2; fiber gains Enterprise: churn -25%, data ARPU +22%; migration rate after 3 yr 70%; overall fiber gains: ARPU +EUR 7, churn -25%
  • Corporate
    • Cumulative FCF 2021-25 unchanged from CMD 200308
    • Div policy unaffected: 1.2 EUR/share in 2020-22, return to div coverage in medium term