Showing posts with label News Corp. Show all posts
Showing posts with label News Corp. Show all posts

Sunday, August 02, 2020

Week 31 in Telecoms, Internet, Media

EARNINGS
  • KPN: 20Q2
    • cumulativ cost savings since 190101 EUR 213m, maintains target YE 2021: EUR 350m
    • maintains outlook 2020, outlook 2021 uncertain; plans interim div 4.3 c./share 200804
    • plans new reporting: new Consumer rev break-down (convergence, BB-only, postpaid-only, legacy/non-SR), new KPIs (HH replacing RGUs, to add ARPA (address)), Business end-to-end adj EBITDA AL
    • mobile site modernisation targets: FTTS to 95%, backhaul 10 Gb/s, 5G-ready, 6-8 frequency bands, 4x4 MIMO (or higher), 1 antenna, 3 site configurations
  • Orange: 20Q2
  • Telefonica: 20Q2
  • Telefonica Deutschland: 20Q2
  • BT: 20/21Q1
  • Proximus: 20Q2
  • Telenet: 20Q2
  • Telekom Slovenije: 20Q2
  • Altice Europe: 20Q2
  • MasMovil: 20Q2
  • Equinix: 20Q2
  • Digital Realty: 20Q2
  • Eutelsat: 19/20Q4 
  • Google: 20Q2
  • Amazon: 20Q2
  • Facebook: 20Q2
  • Pinterest: 20Q2
  • Spotify: 20Q2
  • Vivendi: 20Q2
  • ProSieben: 20Q2
  • Omnicom: 20Q2
  • Interpublic: 20Q2


CORPORATE


NETWORKS - FIXED

Fiber
  • Telefonica: Proposes Digital Deal for Spain
    • GDP impact 1.8% per annum until 2025
    • slogan "A Digital Deal to build back better our societies and economies"
    • 100% FTTP coverage by 2025, to lead in 5G
    • 5 priorities: 1. Boosting digitalisation for a more sustainable society & economy; 2. Addressing inequalities by investing in digital skills & adapting the welfare state; 3. Building inclusive & sustainable connectivity; 4. Ensuring fair competition by modernising the fiscal, regulatory & competition frameworks; 5. Improving trust through ethical & responsible use of technology.
  • Telefonica Deutschland
  • TIM
    • Rumor: gvt IT wants single OA NBN from TIM network merger with Open Fiber, majority-owned by TIM, open for outside investors
    • Reuters: KKR offers EUR 1.8b for 38% in access network (FiberCorp), CDP (gvt; currently 10% of TIM) to also take stake, Fastweb (Swisscom; currently 20% in JV FlashFiber with TIM) 4.4%; KKR, Macquarie, Wren interested in Open Fiber
    • TIM confirms KKR offer, to discuss 200804
  • Proximus
    • Targets 4.2m FTTP premises by end 2028 (= 70% coverage)
    • partners with Delta Fiber (= EQT) for Flanders (1.5m premises) via JV
    • partners with Eurofiber (= Antin) for Wallonia (0.5m premises) via JV
  • Community Fibre
    • plans FTTP in London, target 1m premises by 2023
    • Warburg Pincus & DTCP acquire controlling stake (other: Amber Infrastructure, RPMI Railpen)
    • appoints Olaf Swantee (formerly Sunrise, EE) Exec Chair
    • Consumers max 1 Gb/s (average 920/920 Mb/s) for 50 GBP/mo, Businesses 1 Gb/s for 300 GBP/mo, max 10 Gb/s for 500 GBP/mo
  • Fore Freedom to reuse abandoned fuel ducts form Dpt of Defence
Other


NETWORKS - WIRELESS

5G
Other
  • SKT starts 2G switch-off
  • SpaceX to raise $1b at $44b valuation
  • Amazon: FCC approves Project Kuiper: 3236 satellites (at 590-630 km: LEO), 50% to be operational by 260730, 100% by 290730; >$10b; 5 phases, to activate after 578 satellites; for rural BB, 4G/5G backhaul; to use 10-14 GHz, 17-20 GHz and 27-30 GHz bands


SERVICES

Video
Telecoms
  • BT launches Halo (FMC) for small businesses: Superfast Fibre Broadband, Digital Phone Line, Unlimited 4G SIM for 43 GBP/mo
  • Shaw launches sub-brand Shaw Mobile: free unlimited voice/text for BB subs, unlimited data 45 CAD/mo (throttling after 25 GB)
  • 1&1 Drillisch partners with Deutsche Post: physical mail notification (photo) 1 day before delievry for GMX.de and Web.de subs (34m)


REGULATORY

Spectrum, other
Platforms
  • Google
  • Amazon: ILSR report on 3rd-Party Sellers business in 2019: average fee 30% (2014: 19%), net rev $60b, "Amazon’s high fees make it nearly impossible for sellers to sustain a profitable business. Most fail."; proposes regulation (non-discrimination & fair pricing) and structural separation (online marketplace, retail division, logistics operation etc into separate companies)
  • Facebook
    • Established AI Red Team to hack own AI
    • Sues EU for seeking access to too much irrelevant documents in antitrust investigation - Court suspends EU request awaiting EC ruling
    • Blocks 12 accounts of Brazil President Bolsonaro supporters, complying with Supreme Court over fake news, after being fined for only blocking in Brazil [see 200625]; to appeal as regards it a threat to freedom of speech
  • Twitter
  • Snap: Diversity report 2019: 6.8% of employees Latinx, 4.1% black
  • Apple
  • General
    • India bans 47 more Chinese apps, considers to ban 275 more
    • NTIA (= Dpt of Commerce) orders platform regulation from FCC governing liability for content
    • US Congress (House Judiciary's Antitrust subcommittee) antitrust hearing 200729 of CEOs Apple (Tim Cook; App Store), Google (Sundar Pichai; search, ads, Android), Facebook (Mark Zuckerberg; ads, acquisitions, AI use, misinformation), Amazon (Jeff Bezos; 3-rd party sellers, copy services from companies that it invests in); statements from Amazon (size benefits consumers, sellers & the economy, faces plenty of competition from Walmart, Instacart, Shopify), Apple (not dominant in any market), Facebook (more work to do in combating disinformation and voter suppression), Google (helps small businesses thrive; plenty of competition in information from Amazon, Twitter, Snapchat, WhatsApp, online advertising costs dropped 40% over 10 years) - Jeff Bezos: "social media is a nuance-destruction machine"
    • Turkey establishes Digital Platforms Commission; to guard violation of laws, personal rights, fundamental rights, freedoms, privacy
    • ACCC Draft news media and digital platforms mandatory bargaining code: orders platforms (Google, Facebook) to negotiate (in good faith) payments to media outlets for news snippets (on Google News, Search, Discover) from 210101 or risk infringement penalty (max 10% of Australian rev); with arbitration process: independent arbitrator (Australian Communications and Media Authority) to choose which of the two parties’ final offer is most reasonable (within 45 business days); platforms to give notice (28 days) of algorithm changes; platforms to provide usage data (time spent on article, number of articles read etc) - Google disappointed - Consultation August 2020, final order shortly after; code to be reviewed after 1 yr

at 4:42 pm 0 comments
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Thursday, June 21, 2007

Turmoil in Yahoo!/Semel aftermath keeps eBay merger option alive

I believe all the turmoil around Yahoo!, after CEO Terry Semel quit, fortifies the case for a merger with eBay, which I defended before.
Keep in mind that Google is the perennial enemy to both. Microsoft on the other hand is carefully treated as an equally beleaguered colleague, rather than as a competitor.

The recent animosities by no means endanger a Yahoo!/eBay merger:
  • Google was ready to invade eBay's Live event, which made eBay pull away from AdWords. Instead, eBay could be a bigger Yahoo! partner.
  • Google attacked Microsoft over Vista's desktop search. The case was settled.
Nor do the recent advances, quite to the contrary:
  • Yahoo!'s problems keep any merger speculation alive, particularly with Microsoft.
  • Now the Times of London reports that News Corp floated the idea of swapping MySpace for a 30% Yahoo! stake. I believe the implied MySpace valuation must be too high for Yahoo!, which proved quite frugal when approaching Facebook. Also, I believe that Yahoo! needs to be a 'content neutral' aggregator, not a News Corp vehicle.
  • However, the eBay/MySpace talks are still ongoing.
  • Yahoo! has not responded to Ron Burkle's try to involve Yahoo! in a counter offer for Dow Jones, News Corp's much desired prey.

In other words, I think Yahoo! is carefully aiming for eBay. At the same time, News Corp must be kept at an arm's length.


at 12:08 pm 0 comments
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Thursday, June 07, 2007

Network sharing versus intramodal competition

As always, the TMT markets are moving rapidly. The interesting thing is that several seemingly unrelated deals can quite easily be connected. Let me set out on this small journey by starting with an Australian newspaper group and ending in the very same country.


The WSJ proves its value

The Wall Street Journal once more proves its value, this time at a very convenient moment. The Bancrofts may be pushing Murdoch for raising his Dow Jones offer, or they might want to entice somebody else to mount a counter offer.

Just two days ago a WSJ story carried this headline: Will Vodafone Be Put in PlayBy ABN-Energized Activists?. And today, John Mayo steps forward with his ECS Assets vehicle to push for the freeing up of up to GBP 38bn.

Bravo WSJ.


Will wireless be a duopoly market as well?

Further, one may question the long-term chances of a standalone wireless operator such as Vodafone, along the lines of consolidation in the European broadband markets: AOL has vanished (as an ISP), Tiscali has retreated to the UK and Italy, Pipex is up for sale, and today France Telecom and Deutsche Telekom are swapping assets (see below).
Vodafone's break-up value could be considerably more than its current market value. For now, mobile is a far more attractive game than broadband, in terms of margins, justifying 3, 4 and 5 player markets (not to mention markets like Bangladesh, served by 6 operators). But in a few years, mobile could be another utility. Look out for cablecos to snap up mobile operators once they have their networks and balance sheets under control.
Also, imagine the kind of cost savings when access networks are shared. In the end, base station networks are extremely overlapping access networks, which may very well be shared.


Telco/cableco duopoly nearing in the Netherlands

As to the FT/DT swap: today Ya.com is snapped up by France Telecom and Orange NL goes to T-Mobile.
Spain is consolidating:
  • three major players (Telefonica, France Telecom, Vodafone)
  • two standalone operators (Yoigo in mobile, Jazztel in fixed)
  • cable company Ono.
The Netherlands too:
  • it will be a 3-player mobile market (KPN, Vodafone and T-Mobile).
  • there is no obvious buyer for the Wanadoo-part (ISP) of Orange NL.

What could happen to the former Wanadoo-part of Orange NL?

  • I am sure T-Mobile is not interested - unlike FT, DT has a mobile-only strategy 'abroad'.
  • KPN is restricted, as the regulator barely allowed its recent Tiscali NL takeover.
  • Tele2/Versatel could be a serious candidate; if not, do not be surprised to see Tele2 abandoning the country altogether.
  • Scarlet could step in and move to a facilities-based business plan (following the Tele2 example).
  • Vodafone doesn't seem interested, as it uses Tiscali NL as its broadband partner for its 'Total Communications' strategy.
  • Finally, bbned (Telecom Italia) is a candidate, but its commitment to the Netherlands is doubtful.

In other words, the Netherlands seems to be advancing toward this telco/cableco duopoly.

I believe PTT's are increasingly proving to be winners, but so far this seems to be visible in the Netherlands only. Pushing fiber deeper into their networks (FTTC: fiber to the street cabinet - not to mention FTTH) makes LLU a thing of the past and effectively forces altnets to follow or die (see below).

Unless PTT's allow munifiber to get a too strong foothold, will many markets move toward a US-style duopoly of telco v. cable.


If SLU is impossible, network sharing should be considered

As I have written several times before, KPN is trying to kill LLU by moving to an All-IP network, which includes FTTC. The most obvious replacement would be SLU (sub-loop unbundling: from the street cabinet, instead of the central office), but Analysys has shown that this is not economically viable.
OPTA, the local NRA, is grapling with this dilemma. A 'full alternative' to LLU was promised for Q2, but so far hasn't emerged from OPTA's offices.

In my view, the obvious way out would be the Australian way, where 9 altnets have come together to propose an alternative to Telstra's fiber plans. Sure, altnets are backed by competing companies, but shouldn't they set aside their differences to work locally on a country-by-country basis? It simply makes no sense for 9 altnets to want to each compete with a strong incumbent.

Still, one may question the long-term viability of intramodal competition (operating active elements like DSLAMs on the incumbent telco network). Fiber will be extended - sooner or later all the way to the user: FTTH. Any xLU model (LLU, SLU, ?LU) would imply altnets replicating more and more of the incumbent's network, in the end actually replicating the whole thing, as the copper last mile gets shorter and shorter. The only way out seems to be to sooner or later admit that a single fiber network is the only economically viable situation. Now that LLU is coming under strain seems to be the time to acknowledge this. In other words, altnets should aim for network sharing with incumbents. However, the PTT could be tempted into wanting to go it alone. Hence, an NRA like Arcep (France) is trying to facilitate network sharing.

The viability of intramodal competition in general was questioned earlier this week by the Australian Kevin Morgan. He referred to this an arbitrage game. Frankly, I hadn't looked at it that way before, but I suppose he has a point as altnets are merely kept alive by regulatory intervention. It reminds me of what the Bells over in the US kept repeating a few years ago, when the 1996 Telecom Act was replaced and intramodal competition was effectively killed: after 8 years of competition and cherry-picking, altnets should have built their own networks. However, Kevin does not acknowledge one important thing: how LLU operators have increased competition, driving prices down and broadband penetration up.

Anyway, the end of intramodal competition seems to be nearing. FTTH, fiber in the last mile, seems to be a natural monopoly. If PTTs do not see this, newcomers (like Reggefiber, Iliad, neuf Cegetel) will.

Which leaves cablecos: will they follow?
at 11:58 am 0 comments
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Friday, May 04, 2007

Reed Elsevier and Thomson Corp could carve up Reuters

Reuters has received a takeover approach. The Reuters (!) news service mentions Thomson Corp and News Corp as possible suitors.

I am surprised Reed Elsevier isn't mentioned. They are selling Harcourt (the education unit), reducing the company to a 3-trick pony. Thomson could be interested in the news business (avoiding FCC/FTC scrutiny, which would almost certainly result from combining Reuters and Thomson Financial), even if this is a minor part. Thomson recently stated they want to create their own news service, built upon the AFX buy, to be launched this month. In short, Reed and Thomson could carve up Reuters.

News Corp being mentioned, after their Dow Jones approach, seems a bit silly, but I do think it points to a trend. Piracy, P2P file-sharing and user-generated content undermine the value of B2C content. Hence, B2C companies seem to take interest in more valuable B2B assets. Not public data (that Google's Gapminder helps disclose), research funded by government bodies (under attack from the open access movement led by people like Stevan Harnad and Peter Suber), or even stock prices that used to fuel Reuters' profits. But 'must-have' content that the B2B conglomerats are focusing on.

That could spark another round of bid and break-up speculation.
at 12:03 pm 0 comments
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Google helps value shift to B2B media

The Voelspriet site (and Dutch language alert service) pointed me to a wonderful presentation by Hans Rosling, co-founder of Swedish Gapminder (from the 'Mind the Gap' phrase). It is titled 'Debunking third-world myths with the best stats you’ve ever seen' and is definitely worth the 20 minute view.

The content is compelling as it is, but the reason for being linked to on this site is the second half of the above title. Google bought Gapminder in March (this VentureBeat story also links to the Rosling performance) and the presentation highlights its Trendalyzer capabilities of visualising movements in time (e.g.) of (public) data.

I can see an intriguing, if somewhat vague, implication for Google. Once more this company undermines the value that B2B publishers extract from public data by making them more accessible. It builds upon the open access movement advocated by people like Stevan Harnad and Peter Suber. Imagine combining the technology with things like Google Book Search, Google Scholar, Google Health.

Last minute addition: Reuters has received a takeover approach. Reuters (!) mentions Thomson Corp and News Corp as possible suitors. So much for the undermining of the value of B2B content!
I am surprised Reed Elsevier isn't mentioned. They are selling Harcourt, reducing the company to a 3-trick pony. Thomson could be interested in the news business (avoiding FCC/FTC scrutiny, which would almost certainly result from combining Reuters and Thomson Financial). Thomson recently stated they want to expand their own news service. In short, Reed and Thomson could carve up Reuters.
News Corp being mentioned, after their Dow Jones approach, seems a bit silly, but I do think it points to a trend. Piracy, sharing and UGC undermine the value of B2C content. Hence, B2C companies seem to take interest in more valuable B2B content (apart from public data, or research funded by government bodies, or even stock prices that used to fuel Reuters' profit).
at 10:38 am 0 comments
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