Monday, March 29, 2021

Week 12 in Telecoms, Internet, Media

Corporate

  • Euskaltel: Friendly offer from MasMovil (= KKR, Providence, Cinven): 11.17 EUR/share cash (16% premium) = EUR 2b; 52.32% agrees, unconditional at 75%; to maintain brand (Euskaltel, R, Telecable, Virgin)
  • Telstra
    • Update on proposed legal corporate restructure (part of T22 strategy); to be completed Dec 2021, AGM Oct 2021, scheme booklet to be published Sep 2021; 3 units: InfraCo Fixed (passive:  ducts, fibre, data centres, exchanges), InfraCo Towers (passive mobile: towers), ServeCo (products & services; active networks, RAN, spectrum; separate subsidiary for international business (incl submarine cables); to establish new holding Telstra Group; InfraCo Towers to attract external investment from 21/22Q2
    • Rumor: may merge with NBN
  • Verizon: Verizon Media to launch Yahoo Shops (marketplace) - Yahoo services have 3m subs, to be Verizon Media's consumer-facing brand
  • RTL: Rumor: plans sale of RTL BE (candidates: Telenet, DPG, Rossel, TF1) and RTL NL (candidates: DGP) and M6 (48%, family Frère 7.2%); DPG denies
  • Vivendi: Canal+ Polski files for IPO
  • WeWork: Plans IPO via SPAC, valuation $9b

Results

  • Salt: 20Q4
  • Tele2: Annual Report 2020; Kinnevik holds 27.2% of the capital and 42.0% of the voting rights YE 2020; more-for-more strategy in SE; div received from T-Mobile NL zero (note 30), "Over time we see an opportunity to crystalize value for our shareholders as we exit this market."; Other non-current assets (mainly T-Mobile NL stake) valued at SEK 7.16b = EUR 700m); book value T-Mobile stake SEK 7.011b = EUR 690m); "As part of the annual impairment test in 2020, it was reconfirmed that the recoverable amount of our holding in the Netherlands exceeds book value."
  • United Internet: 20Q4
  • 1&1 Drillisch: 20Q4; plans national 5G roaming & construction deals 21Q2; plans multi-vendor Open RAN, Central, Edge & Far-Edge datacenters, virtualised network; outlook 2021: SR EUR 3.1b, EBITDA 650m (incl 30m negative impact from 5G roll-out, 25m negative from corona virus; excludes 34.4m positive impact from adjusted MVNO deal); adjusted EBITDA 735m for Access, -30m for 5G
  • Tele Columbus: 20Q4
  • Polsat: 20Q4 & 2020 Annual Report & Briefing
  • Gamma Communications: Annual Report 2020
  • Ericsson Annual Report 2020

Networks

  • General
    • BCG for ETNO report Connectivity and Beyond: How Telcos Can Accelerate a Digital Future For All: EUR 300b (o/w 150b for 5G, 150b for fixed) telecoms investment in EU in 4 yr will yield 2.4m new jobs + EUR 113b added to economic growth (from 5G), accelerated green transformation (digital solutions reduces carbon emissions 15%, smart cities 30%, digital transformation in transport 30%)
    • Akamai reached new peak: 200 Tb/s
  • FTTP
  • 5G
  • 6G
    • Next G Alliance launches 2 working groups: 6G Roadmap Working Group (R&D) and Green G Working Group (environmental impact) [see 201013]
  • LEO
    • OneWeb reaches 146 sats in orbit; plans service launch end 2021 in UK, Alaska, N Europe, Greenland, Iceland, Arctic Seas, Canada; global by 2022

Services

  • Video
    • ViacomCBS: To raise $3b equity for investing in originals for Paramount+; $2b in Class B common stock,$1b in Series A Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock - Moody's positive (Baa2, outlook stable)
    • NBCUniversal (Comcast): Considers SVOD service Universal Stream for non-US markets (Peacock for US)
    • HBO (AT&T): HBO Max to expand to UK, DE, IT 2025 (until then deals with Sky)
    • Report on share of exclusive content: Disney+ 89% (Total catalog: 311 TV shows/742 movies), Netflix 83% (Total catalog: 2,069 TV shows/3,766 movies), HBO Max 72% (Total catalog: 606 TV shows/1,932 movies), Paramount+ 41% of TV, 23% of movies, Hulu 40% (Total catalog: 1,700 TV shows/916 movies), Amazon Prime Video 38% (Total catalog: 2,161 TV shows/14,670 movies)
  • B2B
    • Free (Iliad) enters B2B market with Free Pro, launches new Freebox Pro 50 EUR/mo (first year 40) + 10 EUR/line/mo for additional lines (incl 2 fixed lines, NAS server; WiFi, based on 10G EPON tech, max 7/1 Gb/s; tri-band WiFi; 4G backup; Cloud Sync Pro for protected data storage, firewall, support); offering includes 1 5G/4G line
    • Sky (Comcast) Launches Sky Connect to enter SME market; launches Connection Pro: BB 4G backup, VoiceEdge (digital voice, 24 call mgt features), WiFi, security, support
    • Google: Launches Network Connectivity Center: console for a business of any size to manage all its networks on a global basis, seamlessly connects VPNs, partner & dedicated interconnects, 3rd-party routers & Software-Defined WANs

Regulatory

  • Congress US releases statements from Facebook, Google, Twitter CEOs on Section 230 (liability) for Hearing 210325; Facebook proposes platforms should be required to demonstrate that they have systems in place for identifying unlawful content and removing it; Twitter advocates transparency, has 2 projects: Birdwatch (users report misinformation), Bluesky (open & decentralized standards for social media); Google invests in journalism - Reddit, Etsy and Dropbox defend Section 230

Sunday, March 28, 2021

Netflix: all the originals and licensing announcements of Week 12

Movies - scripted
Series - scripted
  • Ordered season 2 of The Witcher
  • Orders comedy series Beef (Steven Yeun, Ali Wong; 10x30 min)
  • Orders series Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story (10 episodes)
  • Comedy series The Kominsky Method season 3 (final, 3 episodes) premieres 210528
  • Licenses series Inside Man (Stanley Tucci, David Tennant, Dolly Wells, Lydia West; 4 episodes) from BBC
  • Series Sexify (Poland) premieres 210428
  • Anime series Eden (Japan, 4 episodes) premieres 210527
Series - unscripted
Movies - unscripted

Tuesday, March 23, 2021

KPN establishes FTTP JV with APG

KPN establishes an FTTP JV with APG (presentation).

In the self-financing scenario, they would reach 65% coverage by 2026. That now rises to 80%, with a commitment to go to 100% thereafter. New too is the inclusion of business parks and the off-balance sheet character.

Note: we recently hinted at this option ('Plan B')in a Deep Dive on KPN (Feb. 18), after examples set by TIM, Proximus and Orange.

The details:

  • Establishes 50/50 JV with APG, which contributes EUR 440m cash o/w half initially, half in installments
  • Equity value EUR 880m = 970 EUR/line
  • Total expected capex EUR 1.2b o/w 70% debt financed
  • To pay dividends when CF positive (from year 5)
  • Almost all financing and construction capacity secured
  • To launch 21Q2
  • To not be consolidated; option on 1 additional share to consolidate and control
  • To roll-out 910k FTTP lines in medium dense areas (1,000 villages) & business parks (long tail): 685k homes, 225k businesses by 2026
  • Brings FTTH coverage (KPN + JV) to 80% (6.5m lines) by 2026 (comes on top of existing plans for 2.5m new lines by YE 2026m from 2.8m today)
  • To finalise roll-out after 2026
  • Network to provide wholesale services, KPN anchor tenant and builds & operates active layer and provides wholesale services

Questions remains

  • Since it's medium dense areas, will they use AON (point-to-point active ethernet), just as Proximus is doing in its JVs with Delta Fiber and Eurofiber? Or go with the (new) PON strategy after all?
  • What exactly does finalising mean? How close to 100% will it come?
  • Is there a further option to buy out APG altogether?


Monday, March 22, 2021

Week 11 in Telecoms, Internet, Media

Corporate

  • KPN
  • VodafoneZiggo
    • 20Q4 final, Annual Report 2020
    • Moody's affirms Ba3 corporate family rating (CFR) & Ba3-PD probability of default rating (PDR)
  • Vodafone: Vodafone Business Investor Briefing ("Connecting people, places & things for a better future")  
  • Telefonica: Considers selling minority stake in submarine cable unit (part of Telxius), to be integrated in Telefonica Infra
  • Iliad: 20Q4; Iliad IT to add fixed-line services summer 2021
  • Elisa: Annual Report 2020
  • Rakuten: Rakuten sells equity (13% stake) for $2.2b to Japan Post (8.32%), Image Frame Investment (= Tencent) 3.65%, Walmart 0.92%, Mikitani
  • Spotify: Launches Loud & Clear website: guide to royalty payment system; >13k artists made >$50k in 2020, 870 made >$1m
  • Google: Cuts Google Play app store fees for developers to 15% from 210731 for first $1m earned per yr (above remains 30%)
  • Amazon: Expands Amazon Care telehealth service nationally for its employees and other companies summer 2021 [see 201216]
  • Snap: Acquires Fit Analytics (fitting tech for fashion e-commerce)
  • Microsoft: Acquires Marsden Group (industrial innovation)

Networks

  • FTTH
  • Nokia
    • Nokia partners with Google for cloud-based 5G radio solutions, combining RAN, Open RAN & Cloud RAN with Google's edge - Also with AWS (Amazon) for cloud-based 5G radio solutions, combined with AWS Outposts - And with Microsoft on cloud solutions for enterprises (Private 4G & 5G), combining Cloud RAN with Azure
    • Nokia to reset cost base by EUR 600m by end 2023 from 5-10k job cuts to 80-85k in 18-24 mo; to be redirected to R&D, innovation (5G, cloud, digital infra), salaries; restructuring costs EUR 600-700m (o/w 50% in 2021, 15% in 2022, 35% in 2023) by 2023; maintains outlook 2021 (incl EUR 500m cash out for previous restructuring); units to streamline portfolios [see 210311] 
    • Nokia to halve 5G base station power consumption by 2023
    • Nokia CMD: target oper margin 7-10% in 2021, 10-13% in 2023 (Mobile Networks 5-8%, Network Infra 9-12%, Cloud & Network 8-11%, Nokia Tech >75%)
    • Nokia launches midrange 5G smartphones A52, A72

Services

Regulatory

  • Spectrum
    • Ofcom (UK) raises GBP 1.36b from multiband auction (700 MHz & 3.6-3.8 GHz) Phase 1 (Phase 2 for assignments to follow); EE 2x10 MHz in 700 MHz band for GBP 280m, 20 MHz of supplementary downlink spectrum in 700 MHz band for GBP 4m, 40 MHz in 3.6-3.8 GHz band for GBP 168m; 3 UK 2x10 MHz in 700 MHz band for GBP 280m, Vodafone 40 MHz in 3.6-3.8 GHz band for GBP 176m; Telefonica O2 UK 2x10 MHz in 700 MHz band for GBP 280m and 40 MHz in 3.6-3.8 GHz band for GBP 168m
    • FCC plans 3.4 GHz band (100 MHz in 10 MHz blocks for Partial Economic Areas, total 4060 licenses) auction (110) Oct 2021, reserve price $14.7b
  • Ofcom (UK) publishes Wholesale Fixed Telecoms Market Review (WFTMR) for 5 yr (April 2021 - March 2026) framework to promote fibre: entry level copper/fiber wholesale prices not reduced, top-end fiber unregulated, regulated fiber prices may be raised, no cost-based fiber regulation for at least 10 yr  - Virgin Media UK positive - BT confirms rol-out plan (20m FTTP premises by 2025-30, GBP 12b), Openreach may not give geographic discounts - TalkTalk negative: price increases on BB, FTTP may become too expensive for many - DCMS launches Project Gigabit, GBP 5b for >1m rural premises: targets 85% FTTP coverage by 2025
  • Platforms: BEREC supports EC's DMA [see 201215], publishes Opinion and Draft Report, adds proposals, consultation until 210504
  • EC adopts first Horizon Europe 2021-24 strategic plan (EUR 95.5b), to launch call for proposals spring 2021


Sunday, March 21, 2021

Netflix: all the originals and licensing announcements of Week 11

Movies - scripted
  • Orders movie Mystery Girl (Tiffany Haddish)
  • Orders unnamed action comedy film (France; Louis Leterrier, Omar Sy; sequel to On the Other Side of the Tracks) to premiere 2022
  • Post-apocalyptic comedy movie Love and Monsters (Dylan O’Brien) premieres 210414, also in theaters (Paramount)
  • Orders spy thriller The Gray Man (Ryan Gosling)
  • Licenses movie He’s All That (Addison Rae, Tanner Buchanan, Rachael Leigh Cook) from Miramax, rumored price >$20m
  • Movie (4 short films) Ajeeb Daastaans (India) premieres 210416
  • Orders 5 micro-budget films in ZA, ZAR 28m
  • Drama film Concrete Cowboy (Idris Elba) premieres 210402
  • Musical film A Week Away (Kevin Quinn, Bailee Madison, Jahbril Cook, Kat Conner-Sterling) premieres 210326
Series - scripted
Movies - unscripted
  • Docu film Operation Varsity Blues: The College Admissions Scandal premieres 210317
Series - unscripted


Thursday, March 18, 2021

Vodafone Business Investor Briefing

Vodafone Business Investor Briefing ("Connecting people, places & things for a better future")
  • Business is 28% of SR (organic growth 20/21Q3 3.2% to GBP 10.3b)
  • Employees
    • 3100 employees in 23 countries in Prod Dev
    • 2500 employees in 22 countries in Commercial & Ops
    • x in Support
  • Serves 6m customers in Europe & Africa (>150m connections)
  • Current revenues
    • EUR 5.9b in mobile (5.6m customers, 34.4m connections)
    • 3.1b in fixed (1.7m customers, 2.8m connections)
    • 0.6b in unified comms (140k customers, 5.7m users)
    • 0.5b in cloud & security
    • 0.8b in IoT
  • Addressable market >EUR 100b, expected growth 8% per annum
    • By segment
      • Enterprise (Corporate >100 employees, MNC >1000 employees, Public sector >100 employees; current market share 6%) 75b, expected growth CAGR 9%
      • SME (10-99 employees, current market share 15%) 18b, expected growth CAGR 8%
      • SOHO (1-9 employees, current market share 20%) 13b, expected growth CAGR 3%
    • By service
      • EUR 16b in mobile (CAGR 1%)
      • 27b in fixed (CAGR legacy -6%, CAGR next-gen 6%)
      • 9b in unified comms (CAGR 12%)
      • 40b in cloud (CAGR 12%)
      • 4b in security (CAGR 12%)
      • 10b in IoT (CAGR 16%)
    • By geography
      • EUR 34b in DE
      • 30b in UK
      • 14b in IT
      • 12b in ES
      • 16b in Other
    • By sub-segment
      • Enterprise
        • EUR 18b in manufacturing, 17b in fin serv, 8b in gvt & edu, 7b in prof serv, 6b in retail & wholesale, 4b in telco, 4b in health, 11b in Other
        • 7b in mobile, 17b in fixed, 4b in unified comms, 36b in cloud, 3b in security, 8b in IoT
      • SME
        • EUR 5b in manufacturing, 3b in prof serv, 3b in retail & wholesale, 2b in fin serv, 1b in health, 4b in Other
        • 5b in mobile, 5b in fixed, 2b in unified comms, 3b in cloud, 1b in security, 2b in IoT
  • 3 Pillar growth plan 2025
    1. Trusted partner for SME
    2. Gigabit provider for LE
    3. Leading e2e IoT solutions provider for all
  • Medium term targets
    1. Above-market revenue growth in fixed & mobile
    2. Double digit revenue growth in cloud, security, IoT, unified comms
    3. Optimise EBITDA growth & EBITDA margin
    4. Invest in high-margin ROCE opportunities for consistent ROCE growth

Monday, March 15, 2021

Week 10 in Telecoms, Internet, Media

Corporate

  • Updates
    • Elisa: Capital markets day: targets 2020-23 rev growth CAGR >2%, EBITDA growth CAGR >3%, capex/sales max 12%, net debt/EBITDA 1.5-2.0x, equity ratio >35%, profit distribution (dividend, capital repaymnet, purchase of treasury shares) 80-100% of previous year's net profit; To grow in global telco software business (customers include DT) and industrial software for manufacturing [Consumer NPS 31.8]
    • Deutsche Telekom: T-Mobile US Analyst Day    
    • AT&T: Analyst Day Strategy Update & 5G Strategy    
    • Verizon: Investor Day    
    • US Cellular (TDS): Acquired 254 C-band licenses covering 94% of subs in FCC auction 107, $1.46b
  • Towers
    • Monaco Telecom (Xavier Niel): Sells towers Malta, Cyprus to Phoenix Tower (815 towers + build-to-suit sites), to close end 2021
    • Vodafone: Vantage Towers Sets IPO price range EUR 22.50-29.00, market cap EUR 11.4-14.7b; to sell stakes in IPO to investors Digital Colony (EUR 500m) and RRJ (EUR 450m); tosell 88.9m shares to raise EUR 2.0-2.8b (incl 25% upsize & 15% greenshoe), 19.1-24.6% to be listed; subscription period until 210317, first trade Frankfurt 210318
  • Other
    • Dropbox: Acquires DocSend, $165m: document sharing via secure link
    • PayPal: Acquires Curv (crypto security, Israel), rumored price <$200m
    • Stripe: Raises $600m at $95b valuation from Ireland’s National Treasury Management Agency, Allianz, Fidelity, Baillie Gifford, AXA, Sequoia Capital
    • Airspan Networks plans IPO via SPAC merger on NYSE, symbol MIMO
    • RTL: 20Q4

Networks

  • FTTH
    • UK: CityFibre (Antin, Goldman Sachs) plans Phase 2: adds 216 towns (3m homes, GBP 1.5b) to cover <33% by 2025 (England, Scotland; 8m homes, 800k businesses, 400k publi sector sites, 250k 5G sites); currently 650k homes, 14 ISPs
    • DE: TNG (= Intermediate Capital Group) raises EUR 73m debt for rural FTTH (200k premises) from UBS, others
    • DE: Telekom DE plans 600k FTTH lines in Berlin by 2025, 1m by 2027
    • DE: Deutsche Glasfaser plans 300k FTTH lines in Saarland, EUR 500m
  • LEO

Services

  • Deutsche Telekom
    • T-Mobile US plans opt-out advertising program from 210426 (excl business accounts & children): targeted ads based on anonimised online activity
    • Telekom DE partners with Envision Digital (Charging by EnOSTM) for home EV charging solution, with SIM and IP-VPN, from 37 EUR/mo (incl 100 kWh)
  • Video

Regulatory

  • Spectrum auctions
  • ACCC publishes Issues Paper on the impact of default settings for search engines & browsers on mobile devices, consultation until 210415 - Plans report on app marketplaces 210331
  • EC publishes Digital Decade plan, proposes Digital Compass: 1. Digitally skilled citizens and highly skilled digital professionals (incl 20m ICT specialists), 2. Secure, performant and sustainable digital infrastructures (gigabit connectivity, 5G, quantum computer, 10k climate-neutral secure edge nodes), 3. Digital transformation of businesses (cloud, Big Data, AI; double the number of unicorns), 4. Digitalisation of public services (incl e-medical records) - BEREC supports


Sunday, March 14, 2021

Verizon Investor Day: C-Band auction results

Investor Day
  • Acquired 140-200 MHz in each market (total 406; average 161 MHz) of C-band spectrum) for 5G Ultra Wideband in FCC auction 107 (3.7-4.2 GHz), $52.9b
  • Plans deployment
    • on existing & new sites (7-8k for C-band + 14k for mmWave in 2021), capex 2021-23 $10b
    • C-band covered pops: 100m in 12 mo, 175m by 2023, 250m by 2024
  • FWA
    • coverage15m HH YE 2021, 30m YE 2023, 50m YE 2025
    • 5G Home Internet (max 1 Gb/s, typical 300 Mb/s, up 50 Mb/s) currently in 18 markets
    • 5G Business Internet in >20 markets YE 2021 (currently in Chicago, Houston, LA)
  • MEC
    • addressable market $30b by 2025: $10b US public/private, $12b US enterprise, $10b global
    • Public MEC with AWS (for developers), Private MEC with Micosoft (for Businesses)
  • Financial targets
    • revenue growth 2% in 2021, 3% in 2022-23, 4% from 2024
    • higher interest 2021-23 $4b
    • lower cash taxes 2021-23 $5b
    • net debt/EBITDA increases to 2.8 YE 2021 (return to target range 1.75-2.00 in 4-5 yr)
  • Other
    • LT urban trafiic 50% over mmWave
    • FTTS to grow to >50% in 3 yr
    • Ongoing Verizon Business transformation, target EBITDA margin 25%
    • "One Fiber monetization and scaling 5G opportunities"

Saturday, March 13, 2021

Netflix: all the originals and licensing announcements of Week 10

Movies - scripted
  • Orders movie This Beast (Kurt Sutter)
  • Musical film A Week Away | Place In This World (Kevin Quinn, Bailee Madison) premieres 210326
  • Thriller movie Oxygen (France) premieres 210512
  • Licenses movies: The Pale Blue Eye (Gothic horror-thriller, $55m), The Ice Road (Liam Neeson, Laurence Fishburne; action-thriller, $18m for US rights), Operation Mincemeat (Colin Firth, for Americas)
  • Movie Madame Claude (France) premieres 210402
  • Licenses movie Monkey Man (Dev Patel), rumored price $30m, premieres 2022
  • Orders unnamed spin-off movie of Bird Box (Spain)
  • Movie Just Say Yes (Netherlands) premieres 210402
  • Movie Ferry (Netherlands, prequel to Undercover) to premiere
  • Movie Ride or Die (Japan) premieres 210415
Series - scripted
  • Series The One (8 episodes) premieres 210312
  • Season 5 (final) of comedy series Kim's Convenience (CBC) premieres 210413
  • Anime series Yasuke (6 episodes, created by MAPPA) premieres 210429
  • Orders vampire romance series First Kill (Imani Lewis, Sarah Catherine Hook; 8x60 min)
  • Special season 2 (8x30 min) premieres 210520
  • Crime series Snabba Cash premieres 210407
Series - unscripted
  • Reality series Family Reunion Part 3 premieres 210405
  • Orders season 2 of reality series Down To Earth With Zac Efron, premiere 2022
  • Orders seasons 4 & 5 of Selling Sunset and season 2 of Bling Empire (reality series), orders new reality series from DiVello’s Done (Done Productions) and Jeff Jenkins Productions (with 3BMG)
  • Docu series This Is A Robbery (4 episodes) premieres 210407
  • Reality series The Wedding Coach (6 episodes) premieres 210407
Movies - unscripted

AT&T Analyst Day: Strategy Update & 5G Strategy

Analyst Day: Strategy Update & 5G Strategy, Presentation
  • HBO expansion
    • HBO Max AVOD tier to launch June 2021 (has $80m in ad bookings), will not include 2021 theatrical releases, HBO original series will not have ads inside
    • raises subs targets HBO/HBO Max (excl free trials, Cinemax) to 120-150m YE 2025 (from 75-90), 67-70m YE 2021 (61m YE 2020 o/w 41.5m in US)
    • HBO rev target $15b in 2025 (2020: $6.8b), HBO Max investements peak in 2022, break-even in 2025
    • HBO Max to expand to 60 new markets in 2021 (39 in Latam June, 21 in Europe H2)
    • no plans to add live sports to HBO Max in 2021
    • target HBO Max ARPU $12 in 2021, $14 in 2025 (2020: $11.7)
  • FTTP expansion
    • to add 3m lines in >90 metro areas in 2021 (current BB coverage 52.97m HH o/w 14.93m on FTTH, 22.6m on FTTN/VDSL, 13.9m on ADSL)
    • 70% of FTTH gross adds are new to AT&T
  • C-band spectrum (80 MHz in 3.7-4.2 GHz band)
    • acquired for $27.4b (o/w $23b payable in 2021)
    • deployment from 2021 (40 MHz), associated capex $6-8b (mostly 2022-24)
    • current 5G coverage 230m pops in 14k cities, 5G+ (mmWave) in 38 cities
    • 5G key areas
      • Sports & venues (5G+ in new 17 venues YE 2021, total >40; interactive experiences, holographic capabilities)
      • Entertainment Retail (5G+ at >30 locations; from immersive AR experiences to IoT integrations) & Gaming (low latency 5G+, unique streaming opportunities, cloud gaming, plans gaming alliances)
      • Travel & transportation (5G+ at 7 new airports YE 2021, autonomous vehicles, connected trains)
      • Business transformation (complement business fiber with FWA with Sierra Wireless and Cradlepoint routers; universities, healthcare incl AR & VR; MEC for Private 5G, autonomous drones, video AI, synchronous media collaboration, connected vehicles)
      • Security & public safety
  • Guidance 2021 unchanged
    • rev growth 1% (wireless SR 2%)
    • adj EPS stable
    • gross capital investment $21b (capex $18b)
    • FCF $26b
    • div $15b (pay-out ratio high 50s)
    • leverage target YE 2021 3.0x (incl $6b debt increase for C-band spectrum), by 2024 2.5x
  • Expected business trends
    • wireless EBITDA growth from share gains, customer growth, adoption of unlimited plans
    • increased fiber penetration
    • business wireline margin improvement from portfolio simplification
    • WarnerMedia improvements (HBO Max scales, ad improvements, cost savings from restructuring)
    • AT&T Latam improvements (customer growth, expense mgt)
  • Other
    • current data usage average (GB/line/mo) over fixed 280 down, 39 up, fixed 318 (CAGR 2015-2020 38%), wireless 5.6 (CAGR 35%)
    • current spectrum 72 MHz low-band, 173 MHz midband, 1040 MHz mmWave
    • current FTTH ARPU $58

T-Mobile US Analyst Day

T-Mobile US Analyst Day
  • FCC auction 107 (C-band: 3.7-4.2 GHz)
    • Round 1: 201208 - 210115
    • Round 2 (assignment): 210127 - 210217
    • Winners announcement 210224
    • T-Mobile US
      • Spent $9.3b
      • Average 40 MHz in top markets (225m pops)
      • Best suited for dense urban
      • Total midband spectrum 292 MHz (AT&T 172, Verizon 244)
  • Key Themes
    1. Maintain 5G Leadership
      • Ultra Capacity 5G (midband (2.5 & C-band) & mmWave), build best network, current coverage 125m pops, target 200m YE 2021, completion end 2023 (90% pops coverage)
      • Extended Range 5G (low-band: 600 MHz) coverage 300m pops YE 2021, 97% YE 2022
      • current 5G coverage 287m pops & 1.6m miles^2 (AT&T 0.7m, Verizon 0.4m)
      • currently 85k macro sites, to add thousands + 50k small cells
    2. Expand addressable markets
      • expand market share in smaller/rural markets (50m HH) from 10 to 20% in 5 yr, with hundreds of new stores o/w 200 in 2021)
      • improve service support, improve self-service
      • to increase B2B market (50m lines) share from 10 to 20% in 5 yr
      • to launch in-home Home Broadband plan March 2021, target 7-8m Home Broadband subs in 5 yr
    3. Unlock merger synergies
      • $1.3b in 2020, target $2.7-3.0b in 2021, to grow to $7.5b per yr (originally $6b) from decomissioning macro sites (35k YE 2022 for $3b synergies) + avoiding cost synergies ($2b) + SGA savings ($2.5b)
      • synergies to NPV $70b (up from 43)
    4. Better financial results
      • SR 2023 $61-62b (up from 60), $70b by 2026
      • core adj EBITDA 2023 $28-29b (up from 26), $36b by 2026
      • capex 2023 $9-10b, 2026 $9.5b
      • FCF 2023 $13-14b (up from 10-11), $18b by 2026 (down from 9-12)
      • shareholder returns 2023-26 cumulative up to $60b
  • Other
    • current consumer market (310m subs) share 30%
    • currently 7500 T-Mobile branded stores (postpaid) + 500 Metro branded stores (prepaid), plans store-in-store at Best Buy (1000) & Walmart (2200)
    • current B2B market ($27b in 2020, CAGR 8% to $40b in 2025; 50m lines in 2020, CAGR 4% to 60m in 2025)
    • current home BB market $90b



Sunday, March 07, 2021

Week 9 in Telecoms, Internet, Media

Corporate

  • Deutsche Telekom: T-Mobile US (Sprint) sold 33% Tidal stake to Jay-Z
  • TIM: TIM Brasil Day: to acquire stakes (max 30%) in unicorns
  • Altice Europe: SFR to cut 1700 jobs of 15k (11%) by YE 2021; to hire 1000 in 4 yr for cybersecurity, data analysts and AI
  • Gamma Communications: Acquires Mission Labs (developer of applications to manage cloud contact centres; UCaaS tech platform CircleLoop) to enhance CCaaS service, GBP 40.2m + 3 yr earn-out max GBP 6.0m
  • Destiny (Apax): Acquires Ulysse Group (Wallonia, 12 employees, 350 customers)
  • Tidal: Bought back 33% stake from Sprint (T-Mobile US); Square acquires significant majority stake, $297m; artist shareholders remain (Jay-Z (Shwan Carter), Beyoncé, Alicia Keys, Chris Martin, Kanye West, Madonna, Nicki Minaj, Rihanna); currently 70m tracks, 250k videos, available in 56 countries
  • eBay: CMA (UK): reasonable grounds to believe the remedies presented by eBay & Adevinta address their concerns with respect to the proposed transaction [see 200721]
  • Crisp: Raises EUR 30m; 500 employees; sources directly from >600 small & high-quality producers
  • RTL: Mediengruppe RTL DE buys out BVI Television Investments (50%; = Walt Disney) from Super RTL (kids & family channel in DE & AT)
  • Vivendi: 20Q4
  • ProSieben: 20Q4; Strategy Update
  • Annual Reports
  • IPO

Networks

  • General
    • Comcast report 2020 Network Performance Data: downstream 14x upstream, peak traffic +32%, peak downstream traffic +38%, peak upstream traffic +56%; video 71% of downstream traffic (2019: 73), videoconferencing 5%
    • Surfshark Digital Quality of Life Index 2020 report ranking 85 countries, based on 5 pillars (Internet affordability, Internet quality, E-infrastructure, E-security, E-government); DK #1, SE #2, Canada #3, FR #4, NO #5, NL #6
  • FTTP
    • Netherlands
      • Delta Fiber starts roll-out in Bloemendaal, Overveen, with BAM Infra Telecom, to activate end 2021
      • Van Gelder Annual Report 2020: total 100k connections for KPN, Delta Fiber, Kabelnoord, T-Mobile NL
      • CommScope E-Fiber (Arcus 95%) case study
      • KPN plans FTTH in Amstelveen (35k premises), deal with city; roll-out starts July 2021, completion 2024 [see 210210]
    • Telefonica Brasil & Telefonica Infra establish 50/50 JV FiBrasil Infraestrutura e Fibra Otica (FiBrasil) with CDPQ [see 210224]; CDPQ to invest BRL 1.8b ($318m); OA wholesale, to close 21Q2; target 5.5m HP in 4 yr (currently 1.6m)
    • Telefonica DE: UGG (Unsere Gruene Glasfaser, JV with Allianz) plans 2m rural FTTH lines in 6 yr in communities of max 10k pops, EUR 5b, 50k km [see 201029]; roll-out starts in Maring-Noviand (RP, 1500 pops in 775 HH); next to Malterdingen, Aach, Volkertshausen (BW) and Hermeskeil (RP)
    • Deutsche GigaNetz (= InfraRed Capital Partners, Axos Capital (Jan Budden)) plans 3m FTTP lines in suburban to semi-rural areas, EUR 1b; plans to start in Hessen, BW summer 2021 
    • TIM Brasil plans to sell FiberCo stake to IHS Brasil (negotiates until 210324)
    • Sunrise UPC: Launches campaign Together more Wow; brands to coexist; plans 1 Gb/s over fixed coverage 90% pos coverage during 2021, then gardual upgrade to 10 Gb/s
  • 5G

Services

  • Telecoms
    • FWA
      • T-Mobile US 5G Event: launches T-Mobile WFX business solutions: 1. Enterprise Unlimited Plans (4G & 5G), 2. Home Office Internet (FWA, 4G & 5G, no cap, >25 Mb/s; dedicated router, prioritises work, with filtering (gaming, gambling, porn, Netflix etc); nationwide, starts with 60m HH covered, target 90m by 2025; from 90 $/line/mo), 3. Collaborate (cloud-based suite of solutions, AI-powered; voice & video conferencing; AI-assistant for taking notes, Microsoft 365 integrated, also G Suite, Salesforce, Slack; incl Enterprise Unlimited from 37 $/line/mo incl 10 GB hotspot data over 4G & 1 hr of GoGo in-flight Wi-Fi per flight for companies taking at least 11 lines, possible throttling after 50 GB; based on Dialpad tech); T-Ventures invests in Dialpad 10s of millions of $)
    • Chat/Voice
    • B2B
      • Google Workspace adds features for remote work
      • Microsoft adds Operator Connect to Teams: adds PSTN calling; initial partners BT, DT, Intrado, NTT, Nuwave, Orange Business Services, Pure IP, Rogers, Swisscom, TATA, Telenor, Verizon
      • Dell'Oro: SD-WAN vendor market 20Q4 +50%, market leaders: Cisco, VMware, Fortinet, Versa, HPE/Silver Peak
  • Smart City
  • TV
    • Federal Appeals Court US rejects Maine law requiring cable companies to give subscribers the option of purchasing access to individual cable channels
  • Video
    • Netflix: Adds tab Fast Laughs to iPhone app: vertical comedy clips from stand-up specials, series, movies; up to 100 per day [a la TikTok]
    • Sony: PlayStation Store exits TVOD 210831
  • Music
    • SoundCloud: Plans migration to fan-powered royalties 210401 (user-centric licensing, to replace pro rata payout): “each listener’s subscription or advertising revenue is distributed among the artists that they listen to, rather than their plays being pooled”, will “benefit rising independent artists with loyal fans”
  • Web
    • Facebook: Instagram launches Live Rooms: live broadcasts, max 4 creators
    • Twitter
    • Apple: report on contribution of iOS App Store to Australian economy
    • Microsoft: Launches Intelligent Speakers (with Yealink, Epos); launches Micorosft Mesh platform: mixed reality, presents people as virtual avatars
    • Razer launches smart glasses Anzu ($200, EUR 210), 2 formats (rectangular and round frames), 2 sizes: music, voice & video calls, voice assistant, Bluetooth (latency 60 ms) for pairing to compatible device
    • Square: Launches Square Financial Services (banking services)
    • Brave (26m MAU) plans search engine for desktop & mobile Brave Search (Tailcat), based on Cliqz tech: completely independent index, without compromising privacy, does not collect IP addresses or use personally identifiable information to improve search results - Publishes paper GOGGLES: Democracy dies in darkness, and so does the Web


Saturday, March 06, 2021

Netflix: all the originals and licensing announcements of Week 9

Series - scripted
Movies - scripted
Films - unscripted
Series - unscripted

Thursday, March 04, 2021

T-Mobile US launches WFX: latest Un-Carrier move - unlimited mobile & FWA over 4G & 5G, covering half the country

T-Mobile US 5G Event: launches T-Mobile WFX business solutions for work-from-home (WFH) or anywhere (WFX) workforce
  1. Enterprise Unlimited Plans (4G & 5G)
  2. Home Office Internet
    • FWA, 4G & 5G, no cap, >25 Mb/s
    • dedicated router, prioritises work, with filtering (gaming, gambling, porn, Netflix etc)
    • starts with 60m HH covered, target 90m by 2025
    • from 90 $/line/mo
  3. Collaborate
    • cloud-based suite of solutions, AI-powered
    • voice & video conferencing; AI-assistant for taking notes, Microsoft 365 integrated, also G Suite, Salesforce, Slack
    • incl Enterprise Unlimited from 37 $/line/mo incl 10 GB hotspot data over 4G & 1 hr of GoGo in-flight Wi-Fi per flight for companies taking at least 11 lines
    • possible throttling after 50 GB
    • based on Dialpad tech
T-Ventures invests in Dialpad 10s of millions of $

T-Mobile US's 5G history:
  • Launch 190625, mmWave in 6 cities
  • Launch 191206, 600 MHz band near-nationwide
  • Launch 2000, 5G Ultra Capacity for Home Internet in 2.5 GHz band and mmWave
  • Launch 5G Core for SA 5G 200804
  • Covers 100m pops YE 2020
  • Target 200m covered pops YE 2021 (2.5 GHz & 600 MHz)

Wednesday, March 03, 2021

Netflix: all the originals and licensing announcements of Week 8

Movies - scripted
Series - scripted
Series - unscripted
Films - unscripted