Showing posts with label T-Mobile US. Show all posts
Showing posts with label T-Mobile US. Show all posts

Sunday, April 11, 2021

Week 14 in Telecoms, Internet, Media

CORPORATE

  • KPN: WSJ: EQT & Stonepeak Infrastructure Partners plan offer, >3 EUR/share (>EUR 12.6b); preparing due diligence, offer spring 2021
  • Orange BE (Orange 53%)
    • Orange launches offer until 210423
    • Degroof Petercam expert opinion: DCF equity value per share EUR 18.5 = 4.7x EBITDA 2020 = 5.1x adj EBITDA 2020 = 12.0x FCF (EBITDA - capex) 2020 = 13.0x FCF (adj EBITDA - capex excl spectrum) 2020; CCA (comparable company analysis): equity value per share EUR 21.0 at midpoint based on EV/EBITDA, EUR 17.2 based on EV/FCF (overall midpoint EUR 19.2)
  • Iliad: Acquires 12% of Unieuro (retailer Italy) - Rumor: to launch fixed-line services in IT within weeks
  • PPF: Considers European acquisitions in telecoms & media
  • Virgin Media UK (Liberty Global): Plans GBP 10b investments in 5 yr for 5G & FTTP expansion (1.14 Gb/s); to add 1m fixed (FTTP) HP by YE 2021 to total 16m if merger approved (CMA to rule May 2021), to add 7m long-term fixed-line addresses if merger approved; could add wholesale services
  • HMD Global (Nokia branded smartphone manufacturer) plans MVNO HMD Mobile in UK on EE (BT); from 6.50 GBP/mo for unlimited calls/texts + 1 GB data
  • Microsoft: Rumor: plans offer for Nuance (speech-recognition tech; 7100 employees), 56 $/share = $16b (23% premium) 
  • Twitter: Co-invests in ShareChat (social media, short video; India, 160m MAU), $502m with Snap, others at $2.1b valuation
  • Box: Raises $500m equity from KKR via convertible & SBB (current equivalent 14%)
  • Patreon: Raises $155m at $4b valuation

NETWORKS

FTTP

  • T-Mobile NL (DT 75%, Tele2 25%)
    • partners with ODF (Open Dutch Fiber; = KKR Global Infrastructure Investors Funds majority, DTCP Infra (DT Capital Partners) rest): to roll out OA FTTH (1-10 Gb/s, passive only) in urban & high dense areas; to avoid uneconomical overbuild; ODF to be led by founders Jordi Nieuwenhuis (Reggefiber co-founder) & Uwe Nickl (formerly Deutsche Glasfaser co-CEOs), Michael Griffioen CEO
    • to launch 21Q2, fully funded, construction agreements in place, to invest >= EUR 700m (capex) for >= 1m lines in 5 yr
    • T-Mobile NL anchor tenant with own active layer; 

5G

  • T-Mobile US launches Home Internet (FWA over 5G or 4G, un-carrier move): 65 $/mo (60 with autopay); coverage 30m HH (o/w/ 10m rural), 50-100 Mb/s, possible throttling during peak hours - To hire 2500 hometown experts for T-Mobile Hometown retail stores
  • Ucell (Uzbekistan) launches 5G in Tashkent

SERVICES

General data usage: AMS-IX New traffic peak 210407: 10.012 Tb/s

Video

Music

Web services

  • Facebook: Trials Hotline (developed by NPE Team, public beta, led by Eric Hazzard of former tbh [see 171016]): Q&A with creators, audio-only or video [a la Clubhouse & Instagram Live]
  • Reddit: Trials moderator-run voice chats [a la Clubhouse]

Hardware

REGULATORY

  • Google
    • Noyb (Max Schrems) files complaint at CNIL (France) over user tracking in Android (using Android Advertising ID (AAID)) violating EU privacy law (ePrivacy Directive), urges investigation
    • Filing in antitrust case led by Texas
      • Google operated program (Project Bernanke) giving its own ad-buying system an advantage over competitors, amounts to insider trading [Google operates exchange, represents buyers & sellers and acts as ad buyer for Search, YouTube]
      • commercial deal with Facebook (Jedi Blue, required Facebook to spend >= $500m in Google’s Ad Manager or AdMob auctions in year 4 of the agreement) enabled Facebook to identify 80% of mobile users & 60% of desktop users (excl users of Apple’s Safari web browser) in ad auctions 
  • Platforms


Monday, March 15, 2021

Week 10 in Telecoms, Internet, Media

Corporate

  • Updates
    • Elisa: Capital markets day: targets 2020-23 rev growth CAGR >2%, EBITDA growth CAGR >3%, capex/sales max 12%, net debt/EBITDA 1.5-2.0x, equity ratio >35%, profit distribution (dividend, capital repaymnet, purchase of treasury shares) 80-100% of previous year's net profit; To grow in global telco software business (customers include DT) and industrial software for manufacturing [Consumer NPS 31.8]
    • Deutsche Telekom: T-Mobile US Analyst Day    
    • AT&T: Analyst Day Strategy Update & 5G Strategy    
    • Verizon: Investor Day    
    • US Cellular (TDS): Acquired 254 C-band licenses covering 94% of subs in FCC auction 107, $1.46b
  • Towers
    • Monaco Telecom (Xavier Niel): Sells towers Malta, Cyprus to Phoenix Tower (815 towers + build-to-suit sites), to close end 2021
    • Vodafone: Vantage Towers Sets IPO price range EUR 22.50-29.00, market cap EUR 11.4-14.7b; to sell stakes in IPO to investors Digital Colony (EUR 500m) and RRJ (EUR 450m); tosell 88.9m shares to raise EUR 2.0-2.8b (incl 25% upsize & 15% greenshoe), 19.1-24.6% to be listed; subscription period until 210317, first trade Frankfurt 210318
  • Other
    • Dropbox: Acquires DocSend, $165m: document sharing via secure link
    • PayPal: Acquires Curv (crypto security, Israel), rumored price <$200m
    • Stripe: Raises $600m at $95b valuation from Ireland’s National Treasury Management Agency, Allianz, Fidelity, Baillie Gifford, AXA, Sequoia Capital
    • Airspan Networks plans IPO via SPAC merger on NYSE, symbol MIMO
    • RTL: 20Q4

Networks

  • FTTH
    • UK: CityFibre (Antin, Goldman Sachs) plans Phase 2: adds 216 towns (3m homes, GBP 1.5b) to cover <33% by 2025 (England, Scotland; 8m homes, 800k businesses, 400k publi sector sites, 250k 5G sites); currently 650k homes, 14 ISPs
    • DE: TNG (= Intermediate Capital Group) raises EUR 73m debt for rural FTTH (200k premises) from UBS, others
    • DE: Telekom DE plans 600k FTTH lines in Berlin by 2025, 1m by 2027
    • DE: Deutsche Glasfaser plans 300k FTTH lines in Saarland, EUR 500m
  • LEO

Services

  • Deutsche Telekom
    • T-Mobile US plans opt-out advertising program from 210426 (excl business accounts & children): targeted ads based on anonimised online activity
    • Telekom DE partners with Envision Digital (Charging by EnOSTM) for home EV charging solution, with SIM and IP-VPN, from 37 EUR/mo (incl 100 kWh)
  • Video

Regulatory

  • Spectrum auctions
  • ACCC publishes Issues Paper on the impact of default settings for search engines & browsers on mobile devices, consultation until 210415 - Plans report on app marketplaces 210331
  • EC publishes Digital Decade plan, proposes Digital Compass: 1. Digitally skilled citizens and highly skilled digital professionals (incl 20m ICT specialists), 2. Secure, performant and sustainable digital infrastructures (gigabit connectivity, 5G, quantum computer, 10k climate-neutral secure edge nodes), 3. Digital transformation of businesses (cloud, Big Data, AI; double the number of unicorns), 4. Digitalisation of public services (incl e-medical records) - BEREC supports


Saturday, March 13, 2021

T-Mobile US Analyst Day

T-Mobile US Analyst Day
  • FCC auction 107 (C-band: 3.7-4.2 GHz)
    • Round 1: 201208 - 210115
    • Round 2 (assignment): 210127 - 210217
    • Winners announcement 210224
    • T-Mobile US
      • Spent $9.3b
      • Average 40 MHz in top markets (225m pops)
      • Best suited for dense urban
      • Total midband spectrum 292 MHz (AT&T 172, Verizon 244)
  • Key Themes
    1. Maintain 5G Leadership
      • Ultra Capacity 5G (midband (2.5 & C-band) & mmWave), build best network, current coverage 125m pops, target 200m YE 2021, completion end 2023 (90% pops coverage)
      • Extended Range 5G (low-band: 600 MHz) coverage 300m pops YE 2021, 97% YE 2022
      • current 5G coverage 287m pops & 1.6m miles^2 (AT&T 0.7m, Verizon 0.4m)
      • currently 85k macro sites, to add thousands + 50k small cells
    2. Expand addressable markets
      • expand market share in smaller/rural markets (50m HH) from 10 to 20% in 5 yr, with hundreds of new stores o/w 200 in 2021)
      • improve service support, improve self-service
      • to increase B2B market (50m lines) share from 10 to 20% in 5 yr
      • to launch in-home Home Broadband plan March 2021, target 7-8m Home Broadband subs in 5 yr
    3. Unlock merger synergies
      • $1.3b in 2020, target $2.7-3.0b in 2021, to grow to $7.5b per yr (originally $6b) from decomissioning macro sites (35k YE 2022 for $3b synergies) + avoiding cost synergies ($2b) + SGA savings ($2.5b)
      • synergies to NPV $70b (up from 43)
    4. Better financial results
      • SR 2023 $61-62b (up from 60), $70b by 2026
      • core adj EBITDA 2023 $28-29b (up from 26), $36b by 2026
      • capex 2023 $9-10b, 2026 $9.5b
      • FCF 2023 $13-14b (up from 10-11), $18b by 2026 (down from 9-12)
      • shareholder returns 2023-26 cumulative up to $60b
  • Other
    • current consumer market (310m subs) share 30%
    • currently 7500 T-Mobile branded stores (postpaid) + 500 Metro branded stores (prepaid), plans store-in-store at Best Buy (1000) & Walmart (2200)
    • current B2B market ($27b in 2020, CAGR 8% to $40b in 2025; 50m lines in 2020, CAGR 4% to 60m in 2025)
    • current home BB market $90b



Thursday, March 04, 2021

T-Mobile US launches WFX: latest Un-Carrier move - unlimited mobile & FWA over 4G & 5G, covering half the country

T-Mobile US 5G Event: launches T-Mobile WFX business solutions for work-from-home (WFH) or anywhere (WFX) workforce
  1. Enterprise Unlimited Plans (4G & 5G)
  2. Home Office Internet
    • FWA, 4G & 5G, no cap, >25 Mb/s
    • dedicated router, prioritises work, with filtering (gaming, gambling, porn, Netflix etc)
    • starts with 60m HH covered, target 90m by 2025
    • from 90 $/line/mo
  3. Collaborate
    • cloud-based suite of solutions, AI-powered
    • voice & video conferencing; AI-assistant for taking notes, Microsoft 365 integrated, also G Suite, Salesforce, Slack
    • incl Enterprise Unlimited from 37 $/line/mo incl 10 GB hotspot data over 4G & 1 hr of GoGo in-flight Wi-Fi per flight for companies taking at least 11 lines
    • possible throttling after 50 GB
    • based on Dialpad tech
T-Ventures invests in Dialpad 10s of millions of $

T-Mobile US's 5G history:
  • Launch 190625, mmWave in 6 cities
  • Launch 191206, 600 MHz band near-nationwide
  • Launch 2000, 5G Ultra Capacity for Home Internet in 2.5 GHz band and mmWave
  • Launch 5G Core for SA 5G 200804
  • Covers 100m pops YE 2020
  • Target 200m covered pops YE 2021 (2.5 GHz & 600 MHz)