Google TV meets Google Fiber and YouTube Live

This is an update to the series of posts on Google Fiber, which ended up focusing on two key characteristics of several NGA networks:

• 1 Gb/s. The 100 Mb/s bar is gradually being left behind (Docsis 3 doing 120, Comcast 105, Bell Aliant 170) and there are several 1 Gb/s services around now. Most recently, it was launched by EPB Fiber Optics of Chattanooga (Tennessee). It comes at 350 $/mo. Other 1 Gb/s service news relates to Costa Rica and Hong Kong.
• Open access. Wholesale-only business models are springing up rapidly. LightSquared (US) and CenterNet/Mobyland (Poland) are planning LTE networks, Allied Fiber is into fiber backhaul, the Australian NBN is making progress, so is the New Zealand UFB network, while eircom is planning trials and Covage is rolling out in France.

In the meantime, Google is trialing Live on YouTube (live streaming), while ever more details are made public on Google TV. Google TV is to launch in the Fall, Google Fiber will be decided (perhaps with a shortlist as an intermediate step) by year-end. It is therefore supporting to see 1 Gb/s and open access proliferate, while YouTube is expanding its options:

• YouTube Leanback is an optimised version for Google TV.
• YouTube.com/movies will offer movies.
• YouTube HD was launched some time ago.

This is our 1,000th post, which coincides nicely with all the 1,000 Mb/s news.

Google's Acquisitions

Cool graph from Scores.org.

See also:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_acquisitions_by_Google

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Ventures

Research by Scores.org

TD-LTE: an introduction

TD-LTE is an interesting area. Spectrum is cheap and lends itself very well to data traffic. TD-LTE may also present an upgrade path for WiMax, possibly leading to a merger of LTE and WiMax. Touseef Ahmed of Mobile Broadband has been friendly enough to make an intro into the topic, that is presented here as a guest post.

Defining TD-LTE:

LTE (Long Term Evolution) is the fundamental and primary technology for the development of 4G technology, which is an evolution of 3G networks. TDD (Time Division Duplex) version of LTE is called TD-LTE. It was developed by China Mobile in the recent years.

TD-LTE explained:

TD-LTE allows carriers to make use of unpaired spectrum that many of them already own. Compared to the previous standards GSM, EDGE, etc., TD-LTE's commercial release time period is very short, due to its later addition into the standards.

There are some essential similarities and differences between TD-LTE and classic LTE. Basically LTE has the following characteristics:

• Much faster upload and download speeds than the 3G.
• It can reach download speeds of over 150 Mbit/s and upload speeds of over 80 Mbits/s.
• It has a larger cell size where a single LTE cell tower can cover upto 100km. Although its size will be greatly diminished in urban areas, it is still a lot better than 3G.
• It can easily be upgraded as it was developed with the intention of making the implementation of upgrades easier down the line.
• It has a great advantage of being compatible with existing standards.

Differences and similarities between LTE and TD-LTE:

• They run on different bands of wireless spectrum. But the part of spectrum that carries the TD-LTE signal is a lot cheaper and has much less traffic.
• LTE and TD-LTE are so similar that both the networks can be accessed by the same chip, which is easier for handset manufacturers.
• 4G, WiMAX standards are not compatible with LTE, but compatible with TD-LTE.

TD-LTE technical specifications:

• TD-LTE is specified to operate in the frequency range of 1850 to 2620 MHz.
• It uses the same MIMO (Multiple Input, Multiple Output) scenarios.
• There are two frame configurations, each with an overall length of 10 milliseconds and divided into 10 subframes as shown in the figure above.
• That is, the transmitted signal is organized into subframes of 1 millisecond.
• There is only one single carrier frequency and the transmissions (uplink and downlink) in the cell are always separated in time.

TD-LTE frame structures (see figure above):

• The 5ms version has two special subframes when compared to one in the 10ms version which provides greater chances of uplink/downlink flexibility.
• The frame can be dynamically configured to any one of the above depending upon the transmission requirement.
• Each one millisecond downlink subframe contains blocks of data called “Resource Blocks” meant for a number of different users.
• Uplink subframe contains blocks of data from the users to the Base Station.
• The specified latency time is 5 ms or only half a frame for small data packets.
• The current system is made such that the stationary or pedestrian users or the low speed users experience operations done at the highest speed.

Advantages of TD-LTE:

• There is no need to develop new devices for using TD-LTE. It's enough to add TD-LTE support to the existing devices.
• There is a lot of TDD spectrum available and it is cheap in cost.
• The increasing availability allows transition of WiMAX (Worldwide interoperability for Microwave Access) operators to TD-LTE using the same allocated spectrum.
• Industry commitment is great without any limitations.

Future of TD-LTE:

TD-LTE will bring in new challenges to developers and vendors of design. New schemes, new configurations, higher system bandwidths, higher system capacity, lower latency are some of the expected challenges. There is a prediction that there will be 30 to 80 million subscribers and over £70 billion in operator revenues within 5 years.

FTTH and LTE help increase focus on wholesale

Three weeks of holidays create a truck load of catching up to do. Results, LTE, MVNO, FTTH, VoIP, WiMAX - every possible new item crossed our mail boxes. They can best be categorised at the next higher level: Corporate, NGN, Wholesale and OTT.

Corporate:

• Results: incumbents (KPN, DT, BT, Telefonica, Belgacom, FT, Bell Aliant), mobile (Sprint), cablecos (Liberty Global, Telenet, Ziggo, Virgin Media, ONO, Comcast).
• Financing: Reggefiber got its desired EUR 130m loan from the EIB.
• IPO: Skype's $100m plan.
• M&A: possible buyers (Telefonica, PT, Vodafone, FT, TI) and sellers (PT, TI, Vodafone).

NGN:

• FTTH: lots of deployments announced (inclusing China and India).
• NBNs and NBPs: Australia expands coverage plans to 93%, New Zealand receives 15 bids, the US awards another round of funds.
• LTE: several deployments announced.
• 4G: Clearwire moving closer to switching from WiMAX to LTE and the WiMAX2 standard gets ready for a 2012 launch.
• 1 Gbps: several MSO and telcos are now going beyond 100 Mbps, while ever more are eying 1 Gbps as the new frontier for bandwidth.

Wholesale:

• Structural separation: proposal from Telecom NZ in order to be able to bid for the Crown Fibre plan.
• MVNO: KPN reports success with foreign MVNO operations (2G, 3G); Econet plans launch on the Everything Everywhere network (3G); Best Buy will do the same on the Clearwire network (WiMAX); Airspan is LightSquared's first wholesale customer (LTE); Tele2 NL started offering CATV on the networks of Ziggo and UPC (analogue TV); Chile considers a wholesale-only network (mobile and digital TV).
• BT was not allowed to raise wholesale prices to help stem the pension fund deficit.

OTT:

• Apps: Google ended the development of Google Wave and acquired Slide; Samsung announced a developer contest.
• Net neutrality: Google and Verizon struck an agreement.
• Hybrid TV: Apple was rumoured to rework Apple TV into iTV, Cox partnered with TiVo and the Virgin UK/TiVo partnership added Cisco.

Conclusions:

• The focus in the sector is shifting to Wholesale and OTT; FTTH and LTE are ongoing; wholesale is established as an important new business.
• M&A is focused on emerging markets, esp. Latam.
• Many incumbent telcos are still assembling global empires in order to be able to show growth. KPN is continuing on the wholesale path for growth.
• A telecoms network can be looked at as a vital piece of national infrastructure. If structurally separated, its cash flows can be seen as a vital element of the governments budget (incl. retirement funding).
• Cablecos are outperforming telcos. If you split the business three ways, it becomes clear why. 1. Connectivity (access): Docsis 3 outperforms xDSL and provides cable with a growth engine. Utility rates are close to 80% in the Netherlands, still much higher than FTTH's. 2. Communication: a nice add-on for growth and loyalty, hitting incumbent telcos in their hearts. 3. VAS (incl. content): here cable is the incumbent and benefits from a considerable head-start on multiple fronts (network, digital services, content deals). The foremost risks include FTTH and non-linear TV/hybrid TV/OTT.
• NGNs (FTTH, LTE) are exploring their advantages: 1. Maximum symmetrical bandwidth. 2. Lowest opex, highest score on the green scale. 3. Options for open access and wholesale.
• OTT is a complex and uncertain field, but hybrid TV seems to be a promising direction.

Final conclusion: while areas such as Latam may provide telcos with some more growth, wholesaling (open access) appears to be the way to maximise the value of a network. FTTH and LTE carry the lowest possible technology risk. OTT is a promising but complex development.

Smart grid proponents have some explaining to do

We are doing a new broadband conference October 13, after an FTTH conference (September 2009) and a mobile broadband conference (June 2010). The program isn't finalised yet, but one of the thing to look forward to is smart grid and smart metering. Hopefully somebody will teach us the value of these things, because I haven't been convinced yet. In fact, I am inclined to be an opponent, as I will explain here. Since I am probably not alone erring, I hope an expert speaker will address these points:

1. Burning oil (or corn) has three issues:

a. CO2 is released, which probably causes the greenhouse effect and as a consequence forces rapid climate change upon us.

b. Oil is scarce. Burning it will only make matters worse, driving up prices and making us ever more dependent on undemocratic countries for our oil supply. Burning corn or the like is just a stupid idea, not worth elaborating on.

c. Oil is scarce, even at times (such as in the middle of the night) when there is a temporary oversupply.

2. It is in our nature to try and drive up the efficiency of oil burning and usage. People are inventing smart grids, hybrid cars and are teaching us to unplug unused battery chargers. In itself, there is nothing wrong with increasing efficiency, but at the same time, three new issues arise:

a. Focus remains on burning oil, instead of developing new and truly green sources.

b. The efficiency efforts themselves require a lot of energy and oil burning.

c. It is naive to think that enabling consumers to monitor their usage will make them more frugal or efficient. Human nature doesn't work that way.

When it comes to business decisions, it is wise to sweat your assets and squeeze every penny out of them (as in copper networks). Oil is another matter however and we need to switch over to new sources sooner rather than later. It looks like we need to stop thinking in terms of increasing efficiency. We should be more ambitious and develop new sources that provide us with an abundance of energy. Energy shouldn't be scarce any more than bandwidth.

I can't wait for the expert to address these issues.

Australian NBN trials apps for FTTH

The Australian NBN is trialing applications to run over the new network in NSW. Finally stuff other than Internet access requiring OA FTTH! Here's what they will ofer 40 trial homes in the Parkbruidge Estate. Teleworking seems to be missing; the services being trialed can definitely be expanded; but smart metering - who buys that?

• Smart metering (with Integral Energy). "Allow families and business to track their energy consumption in real time and adjust energy use accordingly". This is the one application that nobody has been able to convince me about (see next post).
• Touch screen communication (by Smart Services Cooperative Research Centre and Consult Point). Basically e-health/e-care. For elderly and young children.
• Virtual world learning environment (by Smart Services CRC and NSW Department of Education and Training): An e-learning app.
• HD Internet TV (by NICTA and Opticomm). Basically a hybrid STB. You can wonder why they do not partner with Google TV or another existing player in the connected TV/hybrid TV/OTT market.

Google TV: what will the UI look like?

Connected TV, OTT content, hybrid STBs: success is largely dependent on the UI. According to this article, the Xbox is going 'Minority Report'. And in this article, Yahoo! talks about the UI for Yahoo! TV.

In theory, it's a mixture of a lare range of building blocks:

• Remote control, keyboard, mouse
• (Multi-)touch screen
• Camera, gesture-based control
• Menus, search
• Recommendation engines, social media
• Personalisation
• Widgets, widget channels, app stores
• Accelerometer, gyroscope, GPS
• Voice control
• ??

Google TV is keeping all its options open, for the moment. Read more about is over here.

Kabel Noord: the case for open access

Cable company Kabel Noord is a darling among fiber aficionados because of its commitment to FTTH. It is therefore gratifying to see that their 2009 results seem to reflect both FTTH and open access - to a limited degree.

Kabel Noord is quite small, with just 29k homes passed in the north east of Frisia (including two islands). While the company is behind Ziggo and UPC in terms of margins, free cash flow generation, ARPU and the roll-out of telephony services, it has taken a lead on the broadband market in terms of penetration.

For a review and comparison with Ziggo and UPC, read this article (subscription required).

After 3-D comes 4K

If you think 3-D is the end of video developments, you should have been at last week's Mediapark Jaarcongres 2010 in Hilversum. 3-D, 4K and holography were hot topics.

First 3-D. Phil Lelyveld of the Consumer 3D Experience Lab in Los Angeles explained why headaches and nausea are issues for 3-D. The focus point is by definition on the screen, but looking at two different images at the same time makes our eyes converge at a different point, either in front of or behind the screen. This creates the 3-D experience, but for some it is hard for the head or the stomach. Hence, 3-D is to be applied in a moderate way and Phil recommends not too many images where the convergence point is way in front of the screen.

Then holography. There was some talk about Japan trying to organise the 2022 Soccer World Cup, in which case they would have holographic projections of each match in soccer stadiums around the country.

Finally 4K. If television develops from black & white to color to widescreen to HD to 3-D, then 4K could be the next step. Back in 2004, this article in the New York Times described MGM's efforts digitising analogue films in the 4K standard. The 4K standard is experimented on by CineGrid in the Netherlands, working with SURFnet and other partners. Fiber is explicitly mentioned as the medium of choice, because of the excessive data rate. Images are 4x sharper than in 3-D (i.e. a 4,096 x 2,160 resolution) and sound is recorded in 16 channels. According to this leaflet, 1.5 hours of video would require 750 DVDs or 3.5 TB of data. Each frame would be the equivalent of up to 50 MB, not mentioning what the 16 sound channels require. It was stated that a 4K stream would require a massive 8 Gb/s download speed for streaming (uncompressed), or close to 1 Gb/s (compressed). So that looks like a cinema experience, rather than a home cinema experience for now. Coincidentally, a few days ago a new 4K recording was made of Viktoria Mullova, playing JS Bach in the Holland Festival.

Nokia's first step

This pedal-powered charger from Nokia is nice, but they need to think on a much bigger scale.