Thursday, April 22, 2021

Netflix 21Q1

21Q1
  • net additions 21H1 slow due to pull forward and delayed slate dynamics plus typical seasonality
  • biggest competitors linear TV & YouTube
Targets 2021
Viewing stats first 28 days
  • series
    • Firefly Lane 49m
    • Cobla Kai season 3 45m
    • Fate: The Winx Saga 57m
    • Ginny & Georgia season 1 52m
  • movies
    • I Care A Lot 56m
    • YES DAY 62m
    • Outside the Wire 66m
    • To All the Boys I’ve Loved Before (final movie) 51m
  • foreign productions
    • Below Zero (Spain) 47m
    • Space Sweepers (S Korea) 26m
    • Squared Love (Poland) 31m
    • Who Killed Sara? (Mexico) 55m
    • Lupin (France) 76m



at 12:10 am 0 comments
Labels:

Wednesday, April 21, 2021

Netflix: all the originals and licensing announcements of Week 15

Movies - scripted
  • Orders live-action movie Gundam
  • Orders Anna Karenina adaptation from Gazprom-Media, plans more orders from Russia
  • Zombie movie Army of the Dead (Zack Snyder) premieres 210521 & in select theaters
  • Dance of the 41 (Mexico) premieres 210512
  • Drama movie Fatma (Turkey) premieres 210427
  • Orders crime movie The Poet
  • Ordered vampire movie Day Shift (Jamie Foxx, Meagan Good, Karla Souza, Snoop Dogg)
  • Ordered movie Spaceman (Adam Sandler, Carey Mulligan)
Series - scripted
Series - unscripted
Movies - unscripted
Other: orders Spanish originals
    • 3 drama series (Intimidad, Baruca, Si lo hubiera sabido)
    • dating series Amor con fianza
    • reality series Georgina on Georgina Rodríguez
    • movie A través de mi ventana
    • romcom movie Eres Tu
    • season 2 (final) of series El Vecino premieres 210521


at 1:11 am 0 comments
Labels:

Monday, April 19, 2021

Week 15 in Telecoms, Internet, Media

CORPORATE

  • Orange BE
  • Tele Columbus: EC approves takeover; accepted by 91.96%, to close 210419, then rights offering to raise EUR 475m
  • Eir (NJJ 33%, Iliad 32%) Report on poor customer service during corona virus pandemic due to remote working and outsourcing
  • Virgin Media UK (Liberty Global): CMA (UK) approves O2 UK merger, "unlikely to lead to any substantial lessening of competition in relation to the supply of wholesale services" (provisional, open for comments until 210507, final decision 210527)
  • Altice Europe (Patrick Drahi): Moody's: assigns B2 to sr secured notes ($3b) issued by Altice FR, outlook negative (high leverage, weak FCF generation); increases debt maturity from 5.5 to 5.9 yr, interest savings EUR 50m
  • Telstra: Rumor: considers merging Telstra International with PCCW Global (talks with PE firm I Squared Capital), Telstra to acquire PCCW Global
  • Amazon: Annual Report 2020, Letter to Shareholders, Proxy Statement; reaches 200m Prime subs worldwide; spent $11b (+41%) on content (movies, series, music) in 2020
  • Netflix: Moody's upgrades from Ba3 to Ba1, outlook positive
  • Clubhouse: Raises funds; rumor: at $4b valuation; 10m WAU
  • Squarespace: Plans IPO via direct listing; symbol SQSP
  • AppLovin: IPO, symbol APP, IPO price $80, opens at $70, closes $65.20 (-19%) on first trading day
  • Epic Games: Raises $1b (incl $200m from Sony), valuation $28.7b
  • Reservoir Media: Plans IPO via SPAC, with with Roth CH Acquisition Co II; 21Q3 on NYSE, symbol RSVR, EV $788m

NETWORKS

General

  • Ookla Speedtest Global Index (March 2021)
    • Global average FBB 99/53 Mb/s, MBB 48/13 Mb/s
    • FBB: Singapore #1 (234), Thai #2 (231), HK #3 (225), RO #4 (211), Monaco #5 (205), NL #27 (137)
    • MBB: UAE #1 (179), S Korea #2 (171), Qatar #3 (167), China #4 (150), KSA #5 (134), NL #8 (103)
  • Tefficient mobile data usage report 2020 (ranking 105 MNOs)
    • Global mobile data volume +38%, Zain Kuwait #1 (40.2 GB/SIM/mo), DNA #2 (34.8), 3 Austria #3 (30.5); T-Mobile NL 6.0, VodafoneZiggo 3.4, KPN 3.1
    • "The bottom 11 operators are from the low usage markets of Greece (Vodafone), Czech Republic (TMobile), Belgium (Proximus, Orange, Telenet BASE), Germany (Telekom, O2, Vodafone) and the Netherlands (KPN and Vodafone Ziggo – but not T-Mobile)."
    • " the nine operators with the highest revenue per GB are from six European countries: Greece, Belgium, Norway, the Netherlands, Czech Republic and Switzerland."

FTTP

  • Orange PL establishes open access FiberCo (Światłowód Inwestycje) 50/50 JV with APG
    • Orange PL anchor tenant
    • Valuation PLN 2.748b (debt-free, cash-free) = EUR 605m
    • Orange PL to receive PLN 1.374b = EUR 303m (PLN 887m on closing, PLN 487 on delivery during 2022-2026)
    • Orange PL contributes 0.7m lines, to add 1.7m lines in 5 yr in mid/low competition areas, capex PLN 3b (partly from new debt (>80%), equity contributions PLN 300m from each during 2023-2026); ultimately to own 2.4m lines
    • Will not be consolidated by Orange PL; Orange PL has option to acquire extra 1% + control between 2027 and 2029
    • To close end Aug 2021

HFC

5G

  • AR: DNA plans 5G pilot at Hiukkavaara school in Oulu, with BusinessOulu, Educational & Cultural Services, City of Oulu, Oulun Digi, Hiukkavaara school, Playsign: to develop AR experiences for phenomenon-based learning
  • VR: BT plans 5G at Hyberbat (battery maker) factory to support VR-enabled digital twin, with Ericsson, NVIDIA, Qualcomm
  • 360 degrees video: Verizon launches TUDN Vision: portal for 360 degree watching of soccer games televised by Univision
  • Cloud gaming: Vodafone IT launches 5G cloud gaming platform GameNow
  • SA 5G: Vodafone DE launches SA 5G in 3.5 GHz band at 10 sites in 170 cities, with Ericsson, Qualcomm, OPPO; latency 10-15 ms
  • Bell Labs Consulting (Nokia) report The Big Inversion ("How 5G+ technologies will create new value for industries in a post-COVID world")
  • Private Wireless
    • Nokia and EY partner on Private Wireless, 3 key offerings: 1. fuelling digital change in manufacturing, energy, and operations across industries, including for governments and cities; 2. building cybersecurity and digital trust by protecting and managing challenges brought by IoT and IT/OT crossover; 3. helping telcos, specifically, to capture and monetize 5G business enterprise opportunities
    • DT acts as SI for Private 5G for Industry 4.0

6G

SERVICES & CPE

Telco & other

Music

  • Spotify
    • Launches Car Thing in US (smart player, limited release, invite-only), free for select Premium subs (excl shipping): voice control (“Hey Spotify”), dial, touch screen (4 inch), preset buttons, requires Bluetooth and smartphone; "Our focus remains on becoming the world’s number one audio platform—not on creating hardware—but we developed Car Thing because we saw a need from our users, many of whom were missing out on a seamless and personalized in-car listening experience."
    • Partners with Warner Music Group to develop podcasts around WMG's catalogs
  • Apple Music: WSJ: Apple Music pays 52% of subscription rev (0.01 $/stream) to rights holders [compare Spotify: 67% to rights holders o/w 75-80% to labels = 50-53; Spotify has more subscribers and has a free+ads tier]
  • Distr deal with Epix (= MGM): bundle 13 $/mo, exclusive access to music to series Godfather of Harlem 
Video

  • Self Financial report based on IMDb ratings: Apple TV+ #1 (average score 7.24 or 7.13 on 70 titles), HBO Max 7.13 or 7.01, Netflix 6.94 (530 titles), Disney+ 6.63 (420 titles)
  • Morgan Stanley survey US: 39% say Netflix offers best originals, Amazon Prime 12%, Disney+ 7%, Hulu 7%, HBO Max 6%
  • Antenna & MoffettNathanson report on churn rates US 20Q4: Netflix 2.5%, Disney+ 4.3%, Apple TV+ 15.6%, HBO Max 6.7%, Peacock 9.5%
  • Plex: Reaches 25m MAU (r'red users who spent >= 10 minutes on Plex); >150 free channels, 20k free movies & episodes (from Lionsgate, Warner Bros, MGM, Sony Pictures Television, Sinclair Broadcast, AMC, A+E, Crackle, BBC); raises $50m

REGULATORY

  • Amazon: WSJ: leverages dominance in one business to compel partners to accept terms from another
  • Twitter: Launches Responsible Machine Learning Initiative led by ML Ethics, Transparency and Accountability (META) team: assess downstream or current unintentional harms in the algorithms used
  • Platforms
    • US Senator Josh Hawley (R-Mo) proposes Trust-Busting for the Twenty-First Century Act: ban M&A for fimrs with market cap >$100b, replace antitrust issue of consumer harm by protection of competition, , empower FTC
    • EU plan for AI regulation leaked: to establish European Artificial Intelligence Board
    • US House of Representatives Judiciary Committee approves report on platforms (Google, Facebook, Amazon, Apple); "each hold monopoly power over significant sectors" [see 201006]


at 1:14 pm 0 comments
Labels: , , , , , , ,

Monday, April 12, 2021

Netflix: all the originals and licensing announcements of Week 14

Movies - scripted
Series - scripted
Unscripted

at 9:55 pm 0 comments
Labels:

Orange Poland establishes 50/50 open access FiberCo with APG

Orange PL establishes open access FiberCo (Światłowód Inwestycje)
Press release - report - presentation
  • 50/50 JV with APG
  • Orange PL anchor tenant
  • Valuation PLN 2.748b (debt-free, cash-free) = EUR 605m, Orange PL to receive PLN 1.374b = EUR 303m (PLN 887m on closing, PLN 487 on delivery during 2022-2026)
  • Orange PL contributes 0.7m lines, to add 1.7m lines in 5 yr in mid/low competition areas, ultimately to own 2.4m lines
  • Capex PLN 3b (partly from new debt (>80%), equity contributions PLN 300m from each during 2023-2026)
  • Will not be consolidated by Orange PL
  • Orange PL has option to acquire extra 1% + control between 2027 and 2029
  • To close end Aug 2021



at 12:07 pm 0 comments
Labels: , , ,

Sunday, April 11, 2021

Week 14 in Telecoms, Internet, Media

CORPORATE

  • KPN: WSJ: EQT & Stonepeak Infrastructure Partners plan offer, >3 EUR/share (>EUR 12.6b); preparing due diligence, offer spring 2021
  • Orange BE (Orange 53%)
    • Orange launches offer until 210423
    • Degroof Petercam expert opinion: DCF equity value per share EUR 18.5 = 4.7x EBITDA 2020 = 5.1x adj EBITDA 2020 = 12.0x FCF (EBITDA - capex) 2020 = 13.0x FCF (adj EBITDA - capex excl spectrum) 2020; CCA (comparable company analysis): equity value per share EUR 21.0 at midpoint based on EV/EBITDA, EUR 17.2 based on EV/FCF (overall midpoint EUR 19.2)
  • Iliad: Acquires 12% of Unieuro (retailer Italy) - Rumor: to launch fixed-line services in IT within weeks
  • PPF: Considers European acquisitions in telecoms & media
  • Virgin Media UK (Liberty Global): Plans GBP 10b investments in 5 yr for 5G & FTTP expansion (1.14 Gb/s); to add 1m fixed (FTTP) HP by YE 2021 to total 16m if merger approved (CMA to rule May 2021), to add 7m long-term fixed-line addresses if merger approved; could add wholesale services
  • HMD Global (Nokia branded smartphone manufacturer) plans MVNO HMD Mobile in UK on EE (BT); from 6.50 GBP/mo for unlimited calls/texts + 1 GB data
  • Microsoft: Rumor: plans offer for Nuance (speech-recognition tech; 7100 employees), 56 $/share = $16b (23% premium) 
  • Twitter: Co-invests in ShareChat (social media, short video; India, 160m MAU), $502m with Snap, others at $2.1b valuation
  • Box: Raises $500m equity from KKR via convertible & SBB (current equivalent 14%)
  • Patreon: Raises $155m at $4b valuation

NETWORKS

FTTP

  • T-Mobile NL (DT 75%, Tele2 25%)
    • partners with ODF (Open Dutch Fiber; = KKR Global Infrastructure Investors Funds majority, DTCP Infra (DT Capital Partners) rest): to roll out OA FTTH (1-10 Gb/s, passive only) in urban & high dense areas; to avoid uneconomical overbuild; ODF to be led by founders Jordi Nieuwenhuis (Reggefiber co-founder) & Uwe Nickl (formerly Deutsche Glasfaser co-CEOs), Michael Griffioen CEO
    • to launch 21Q2, fully funded, construction agreements in place, to invest >= EUR 700m (capex) for >= 1m lines in 5 yr
    • T-Mobile NL anchor tenant with own active layer; 

5G

  • T-Mobile US launches Home Internet (FWA over 5G or 4G, un-carrier move): 65 $/mo (60 with autopay); coverage 30m HH (o/w/ 10m rural), 50-100 Mb/s, possible throttling during peak hours - To hire 2500 hometown experts for T-Mobile Hometown retail stores
  • Ucell (Uzbekistan) launches 5G in Tashkent

SERVICES

General data usage: AMS-IX New traffic peak 210407: 10.012 Tb/s

Video

Music

Web services

  • Facebook: Trials Hotline (developed by NPE Team, public beta, led by Eric Hazzard of former tbh [see 171016]): Q&A with creators, audio-only or video [a la Clubhouse & Instagram Live]
  • Reddit: Trials moderator-run voice chats [a la Clubhouse]

Hardware

REGULATORY

  • Google
    • Noyb (Max Schrems) files complaint at CNIL (France) over user tracking in Android (using Android Advertising ID (AAID)) violating EU privacy law (ePrivacy Directive), urges investigation
    • Filing in antitrust case led by Texas
      • Google operated program (Project Bernanke) giving its own ad-buying system an advantage over competitors, amounts to insider trading [Google operates exchange, represents buyers & sellers and acts as ad buyer for Search, YouTube]
      • commercial deal with Facebook (Jedi Blue, required Facebook to spend >= $500m in Google’s Ad Manager or AdMob auctions in year 4 of the agreement) enabled Facebook to identify 80% of mobile users & 60% of desktop users (excl users of Apple’s Safari web browser) in ad auctions 
  • Platforms


at 9:43 pm 0 comments
Labels: , , , , , , ,

Sunday, April 04, 2021

Week 13 in Telecoms, Internet, Media

Corporate

  • Syn (Iceland, brand Vodafone): Tower sale & lease-back with anon investors; sells 49.9% stake in Faroese associate P/F (Tjaldur 50.1%; brand Hey), DKK 52.5m, maintains service agreement
  • MasMovil (KKR, Cinven, Providence): Moody's places B1 rating on review for downgrade on debt-financed acquisition of Euskaltel
  • Euskaltel: Moody's places B1 rating on review for downgrade on MasMovil offer (10x EV/EBITDA pre-synergies) (debt-financed acquisition of the company will likely result in weaker credit metrics for the combined entity, including leverage rising initially to over 6.0x)
  • Digi: Sells Digi Hungary (incl Invitel, I TV) to 4iG [on exclusion from 5G auction]
  • KPN: HEMA to end MVNO sales 210501, prepaid refers to KPN, to shut down 220501
  • Cellnex: To raise EUR 7b equity
  • Telenet (Liberty Global): Acquires 49% stake in Caviar Group (prodco)
  • M6 (RTL): Rumor: TF1, Vivendi, Xavier Niel, Mediawan, KKR, Matthieu Pigasse & Pierre-Antoine Capton, Daniel Křetínský (also Mediaset, NRJ, Altice Europe) interested
  • Music
  • Accenture: Acquires Cygni (IT)
  • Deliveroo (Amazon) IPO price set at GBP 3.90 [see 210308]; first trade 331p, closes at 287p
  • Funding

Networks

  • General
    • OECD publishes new Going Digital toolkit (based on access, use, innovation, jobs, society, trust, market openness); Netherlands score on access penetrations: broadband 93, M2M 21, mobile broadband 67, HH broadband acceess 98, business broadband speed >30 Mb/s 86, 4G broadband coverage 99, urban/rural broadband divide 100
    • US White House proposes $100b for universal broadband access by 2030 (as part of $2.25t Infrastructure & Tax Proposal (The American Jobs Plan); to raise corporate tax from 21 to 28%, tax on overseas profits from 13 to 21%) [focus on cheap munifiber]
  • FTTH
    • Germany
    • UK: Virgin Media UK (Liberty Global) trials use of Openreach ducts & poles for FTTP expansion (first in Swadlincote)
    • Italy: FiberCop (TIM 58%, KKR 37.5%, Fastweb 4.5%) starts operations as carrier-neutral OA wholesale operator; targets positive FCF (EBITDA - capex) by 2025, will not require capital injections; current pops coverage (FTTC + FTTH) 90%; targets 76% black/grey area MDUs (= 56% nationwide units coverage) by 2025 
  • 5G

Services

  • NBCUnivcersal (Comcast): Rumor: considers pulling movies from competitors (Netflix, HBO Max: movies 9 mo after theatrical release) to add to Peacock after theatrical & TVOD windows
  • Lionsgate: Sells 75% Pantaya stake to Hemisphere, $124m cash [see 170801]
  • T-Mobile US expands Google partnership: to resell YouTube TV (replacing TVision, closing 210429), Messages by Google as default RCS on Android smartphones; to offer Pixel smartphones; promoting Google One (backup & storage); 5G covers 287m pops, 1.6m miles^2
  • Telekom DE partners with Hamburg for citywide EV-charging for taxis (Project Future Taxi)
  • Google (Alphabet): Starts trialing FLoC cookie alternative in Chrome browser [see 210303]
  • Pinterest: Rumor: to acquire VSCO (photo app; total raised $90m, last at $550m valuation)
  • Facebook: Instagram launches Remix on Reels: record video alongside video from other user [a la TikTok Duets]
  • Audio

Regulation

  • Platforms
    • Letter from 40 European SME tech companies to EU MEPs on DMA (gatekeepers [see 201215]): propose stronger ex ante interoperability requirement (as in DSA) for dominant gatekeeper firms; interoperability reduces anti-competitive barriers created by lock-in of established user bases
  • Facebook
    • Nick Clegg (VP Global Affairs): "In the long run, people are only going to feel comfortable with these algorithmic systems if they have more visibility into how they work and then have the ability to exercise more informed control over them."; "Facebook demotes clickbait (headlines that are misleading or exaggerated), highly sensational health claims (like those promoting “miracle cures”), and engagement bait (posts that explicitly seek to get users to engage with them)."; "You should be able to better understand how the ranking algorithms work and why they make particular decisions, and you should have more control over the content that is shown to you. You should be able to talk back to the algorithm and consciously adjust or ignore the predictions it makes — to alter your personal algorithm in the cold light of day, through breathing spaces built into the design of the platform."
    • Launches features (in Android & iOS): Most Recent timeline (chronological display), Favorites timeline, turn of political ads, snooze specific pages or persons


at 10:17 pm 0 comments
Labels: , , ,

Apple TV+: all the originals and licensing announcements of March

Series
  • Orders anthology series Roar (Nicole Kidman, Cynthia Erivo, Merritt Wever, Alison Brie)
  • Series Calls (9 episodes) premieres 210319
  • Orders live action series based on Korean webtoon Dr Brain
  • Orders drama series In With the Devil (Ray Liotta; 6 episodes)
  • Orders season 3 of Central Park (animated comedy series)
  • Orders series Lady in the Lake (Natalie Portman, Lupita Nyong’o)
  • Orders docu series The Jet
  • Orders drama series Essex Serpent (Tom Hiddleston, Claire Danes)
  • Ordered WWII series Masters of the Air (Steven Spielberg, Tom Hanks, Anthony Boyle)
  • Orders unnamed comedy series (Alan Yang, Matt Hubbard, Maya Rudolph)
  • Orders series Five Days at Memorial (about Hurricane Katrina; Hurricane Katrina)
  • Orders season 3 of Trying, season 2 (8 episodes) premieres 210514
Movies
  • Orders movie The Greatest Beer Run Ever (Peter Farrelly, Zac Efron, Russell Crowe, Bill Murray)
  • Play 12 Angry Men … And Women; The Weight of the Wait (recorded in Stev Jobs Theater) free to watch 210326-210422
First-look deals

at 3:53 pm 0 comments
Labels: , ,

Amazon Prime Video: all the originals and licensing announcements of March

Series
Movies
Sports

at 3:37 pm 0 comments
Labels: , ,

Netflix: all the originals and licensing announcements of Week 13

Series - scripted
  • Season 2 of Who Killed Sara? premieres 210519
  • Anime series adaption of manga Record of Ragnarok premieres June 2021; anime series The Way of the Househusband premieres 210408; anime series Resident Evil: Infinite Darkness premieres 2021; anime series Yasuke premieres 210429; anime series Eden premieres 210527
  • Series Lucifer season 2 (second half) premieres 210528
  • Season 2 of crime series Sky Rojo (Spain; 8x25 min) premieres 210723
  • Fantasy series Shadow and Bone (8 episodes) premieres 210423
  • Orders rom com series (spin-off from To All the Boys; Anna Cathcart)
  • Fantasy series Zero (Italy) premieres 210421
  • Anime series Yasuke (6 episodes) premieres 210429
  • Fantasy series The Witcher (Henry Cavill) season 2 to premiere 2021
  • Ordered season 2 of Bridgerton
  • Ordered comedy series Day Shift (Jaime Foxx, Dave Franco)
  • Orders season 2 of How To Ruin Christmas, to premiere Dec 2021
Movies - scripted
  • Movie The Disciple (India; Chaitanya Tamhane, Vivek Gomber) premieres 210430
  • Animated comedy film The Mitchells vs The Machines premieres 210430
  • Licenses detective films Knives Out 2 & Knives Out 3 (Daniel Craig), $450m
  • To premieres new 27 French movies & series & docus in 2021: thriller movie A tombeau ouvert, action movie A Hard Day, sequel to On the Other Side of the Tracks (Omar Sy), sequel to Lost Bullet, series The 7 lives of Lea, thriller series Bendo
  • Thriller movie Ride or Die (Japan) premieres 210415
  • Horror movie Things Heard & Seen (Amanda Seyfried) premieres 210429
  • Ordered biopic Maestro (about Leonard Bernstein; Bradley Cooper, Carey Mulligan, Steven Spielberg), production starts April 2021
  • Sci-fi movie Stowaway (Toni Collett, Anna Kendrick) premieres 210422

at 3:09 pm 0 comments
Labels:
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)