Sunday, May 09, 2021

Netflix: all the originals & licensing announcements of Week 18

Movies - scripted
Series - scripted
  • Animated series Arcane (based on League of Legends) premieres autumn 2021 (in China on Tencent)
  • Series Summertime (Italy) season 2 premieres 210603
  • Series Halston (Ewan McGregor, Ryan Murphy) premieres 210514
  • Starts production of series Emily in Paris season 2
  • Mystery series 1899 (8 episodes, Germany, multi-lingaul) in production
  • Cancels series The Irregulars after season 1 (premiered 210326)
  • Comedy series The Neighbor (Spain) season 2 premieres 210521
  • Orders series from Millarworld (Mark Millar, acquired 2017):
    • new season of The Magic Order (after cancelling in 2020)
    • live-action spy series (6 episodes), anime series Super Crooks (13x30 min)
    • series Jupiter’s Legacy season 1 (8 episodes) premieres 210507
  • Series Stranger Things season 4 to premiere
Series and movies - unscripted
  • Culinary docu series High on the Hog: How African American Cuisine Transformed America premieres 210526
  • Puts docu series Amend: The Fight for America (6 episodes) on YouTube
  • Docu film Audible (about deaf high-school football team) premieres at Hot Docs Film Festival 210501








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Monday, May 03, 2021

KPN rejects approaches from EQT, KKR

KPN confirms that it rejected approaches from EQT/Stonepeak and KKR. There have been no discussions or negotiations. KPN claims that no price was mentioned (the FT claimed EQT offered 3 EUR/share = EUR 12.5b). KPN sees no added value from a takeover for its current strategy.

Observations:

  • No added value means probably two things:
    • EQT and KKR weren't raising the capex budget for FTTP.
    • There will be no synergies from a takeover.
  • An offer needs to be 'friendly' because EQT and KKR are investors, not telcos. They need the current management tema.
  • KKR teamed up with rival T-Mobile NL instead, establishing an FTTP joint venture (Open Dutch Fiber). It must have seen a large enough opportunity in the Netherlands. Apparently, not only was T-Mobile NL shopping for an investor, KKR itself also shopped around to see if a deal with KPN could be made.
  • The KPN share can still be seen as undervalued. Assuming full FTTP roll-out, it could be worth 4-5 EUR/share. KPN and its current shareholders would somehow need to split the difference. At 5 EUR/share it would be hard to create value. Hence 3.75 EUR/share come out as a nice middle ground.
  • The Dutch government should be wary of an investor deal for KPN. It holds a right to block a deal if it would conflict with the 'essential infrastructure' status of KPN. There is a risk of selling assets and raising debt, for no other reason than to pay out as a dividend. The could jeopardise the FTTP capex budget. TDC and Eircom could serve as bad examples (victims of vulture capitalists), but today's owners show that a sound deal is possible too.


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Week 17 in Telecoms, Internet, Media

CORPORATE

  • KPN: FT: KPN rejected approaches from EQT/Stonepeak (offered 3 EUR/share = EUR 12.5b) and KKR interested in offer - KPN rejects both (EQT/Stonepeak gave no offer price), adds nothing to strategy
  • Orange: Moody's assigns Baa3 to perpetual 8-year non-call deeply junior subordinated hybrid bonds (EUR 500m)
  • Orange Belgium: Orange expands stake to 74.68%, extends offer to 210504
  • VOO: To be put up for sale (50% + 1 share or 75% minus 1 share) May 2021, shortlist 210721, to sell by end 2021; Nethys (= Enodia) to hold controlling stake
  • Sunrise UPC (Liberty Global): Plans 450 job cuts (13.5% of 3350 FTE) + 150 through attrition
  • BT: Rumor: plans part sale of BT Sports, Amazon, DAZN, Disney, CVC, Silverlake interested - Confirms
  • Verizon: WSJ: plans sale of Verizon Media assets (AOL, Yahoo), $4-5b - Bloomberg: to sell to Apollo Global Mgt, up to $5b
  • Mediaset: Relaunches plan to establish MediaForEurope HQ in Amsterdam
  • Apple: To invest $430b in US in 5 yr incl dozens of Apple TV+ productions in 20 states, add 20k jobs; plans new campus in N Carolina
  • Endeavor: IPO price $24, trading starts 210429, symbol EDR - First trade $27.00, closes at $25.20

EARNINGS

  • Proximus: 21Q1; confirms guidance 2021: domestic rev flat, EBITDA EUR 1.750-1.775m, capex <EUR 1.2b (excl spectrum, football rights), net debt/EBITDA <1.6x, div 1.20
  • Swisscom: 21Q1; Raises outlook 2021: net rev CHS 11.3b (o/w Fastweb 2.4b), EBITDA 4.3-4.4b (o/w Fastweb 800m), capex 2.2-2.3b (o/w fastweb 600m), div 22 CHF/share; Partners with Salt on FTTH (P2MP), non-exclusive: Salt to have Layer 1 access (already in P2P) also in p2MP: to invest in own feeder & splitter (with IRU; reclassified from PPE to direct cost) and own drop (with IRU, reduces capex) based on dark fiber (classified as financial lease, lease payments to be wholesale rev), Swisscom in charge of construction & maintenance, postive for wholesale rev (+++), Op FCF (+++), EBITDA (+), FCF (+), negative for opex (--), capex (--)
  • Telenet (Liberty Global): 21Q1
  • Spotify: 21Q1
  • Sony: 21Q1; aggressively pursuing investment in music segment
  • Comcast: 21Q1; Peacock reaches 42m sign-ups; plans international roll-out, possibly with Sky
  • Discovery: 21Q1; discovery+ reaches 13m subs (15m total D2C subs globally)
  • Alphabet: 21Q1, YouTube ad rev $6.01b (+49% yoy; 2021E $29.7b based on analyst estimates), used by 81% of US adults, total usage 1b hr/days (Netflix 400m, based on analyst estimate); plans $50b SBB (Class C)
  • Amazon: 21Q1, >175m Prime Video users, Twitch 35m DAU ; guidance 21Q2: rev $110-116b (growth 24-30%), oper income 4.5-8.0b (incl 1.5b costs related to COVID-19 and Prime Day to take place during 21Q2)
  • Apple: 20/21Q2, total >660m paying subs (video, music, games, news)
  • Microsoft: 20/21Q3; Teams 145m DAU, LinkedIn ad rev TTM >$3b, Xbox hardware rev +232% yoy
  • Facebook: 21Q1; Instagram plans monetisation tools for creators
  • Twitter: 21Q1; outlook 21`Q2: rev $980-1080m, GAAP oper loss 170-120m; outlook 2021: SBC $600m, capex 900-950m
  • Pinterest: 21Q1
  • Nokia 21Q1; total 160 commercial 5G deals o/w 63 live networks (ReefShark: 44% 5G shipments market share); maintains outlook 2021 (oper margin high-end of 7-10% range)

NETWORKS

  • Broadband
    • German BMVI Ministry expands BB funding (currently in white spots (max <30 Mb/s) to grey areas (max <100 Mb/s)
    • CEBR for Ofcom (UK): FTTP will help 1m pops return to workforce in UK; nationwide FTTP would boost productivity by GBP 59b by 2025, Gross Value Added (GVA) impact GBP 25bn (1.3%)
    • Ofcom: no-internet HH dropped to 6% (from 11% March 2020)
  • 5G: GSA 5G Market Snapshot: 435 operators in 133 countries invest in 5G o/w 162 in 68 countries commercially launched (o/w 153 in 64 countries mobile, 54 in 30 countries FWA); 8 operators launched 5G SA (36 are planning to); total 5G devices 703 (incl 351 phones = 50%, FWA CPE 19%) o/w 431 commercially available
  • FWA: Carmel Group report (Liftoff!) on FWA in US

SERVICES

  • Video
    • HBO Max (WarnerMedia)

    • SPI/FilmBox: Launches Filmstream app for Samsung TV Plus for Galaxy platform in UK
    • The Teaching Co plans to launch Wondrium SVOD service (ad-free): factual, life-long learning (films, docu series, other; 7500 hr of content)
    • Allen Media Group: distr deal for Local Now (local news, info, entertainment, weather from The Weather Channel; content from Reuters, AP, Lionsgate, Cinedigm, Pattrn, Cheddar, Bloomberg, Kevin Hart’s LOL, People.TV) with Verizon (FiOS STB integration)
  • Music/audio/podcasts/radio
    • Spotify

  • Hardware: Amazon: Launches new tablets: Fire HD 10 (32 or 64 GB, from $150), Fire HD 10 Plus (4 GB RAM; $180), Fire HD 10 Kids (incl Amazon Kids+, case, parental controls, 2-yr guarantee; $200), Fire Kids Pro (incl Amazon Kids+, protective case, 2-yr guarantee; from $100); launches  Fire HD 10 Productivity Bundle (Fire HD 10 or 10 Plus + detachable keyboard case, Microsoft 365 Personal subscription, $220)

REGULATORY

  • Platforms: EP adopts law forcing platforms to remove terrorist content within an hour of it being flagged
  • Apple
    • Sued in Germany in antitrust case over privacy settings of iPhones by 9 associations (representing Facebook, Axel Springer, etc)
    • EC starts antitrust investigation over abuse of control over the distribution of music-streaming apps via Apple App Store (functioning as gatekeeper in mobile ecosystem), possible fine max 10% of annual rev
    • Case by Epic Games starts 210503, over 30% App Store fees on in-app purchases - Epic claims App Store oper. margin 78% in 2019, Apple disagrees


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Sunday, May 02, 2021

Netflix: all the originals & licensing announcements of Week 17

Series - scripted
  • Series The Naked Director season 2 premieres 210624
  • Comedy series Special season 2 premieres 210520
  • Ordered drama series Heartstopper (8 episodes)
  • Postapocalyptic series Sweet Tooth premieres 210604
  • Animated series Castlevania season 4 (final, 10 episodes) premieres 210513
  • Cancels series The Duchess (Katherine Ryan) after season 1
  • Fantasy series Lucifer season 5 part 2 (8 episodes) premieres 210528
  • Romcom series Master of None (Aziz Ansari) season 3 premiere 210523
  • Series The Kominsky Method season 3 (Michael Douglas, Kathleen Turner, Morgan Freeman, Barry Levinson) premieres 210528
  • Thriller series Hit & Run to premiere
  • Anime series Yasuke premieres 210429
Movie - scripted

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Amazon Prime Video: all the originals and licensing announcements of April

Series - scripted
Movies - scripted
  • Orders remake of thriller movie Goodnight Mommy (Naomi Watts)
  • Movie Tom Clancy’s Without Remorse premieres 210430
  • Licenses sci-Fi movie The Tomorrow War (Chris Pratt) from Paramount, premieres 210702, rumored value $200m
  • Orders zombie comedy movie Killing It (Robin Thede)
  • Licenses movie A Hero (Asghar Farhadi; Iran), to premiere 2021
Unscripted
  • Orders Spanish adaptation of cooking reality series The Great British Bake Off (Celebrity Bake Off España, 10x50 min)
  • Licenses global option rights for local versions of adventure reality series Hunted from Banijay
  • Orders docu series The Pogmentary (about footballer Paul Pogba)
  • Docu Time (80 min, Oscar nomination) distributed on YouTube (free)

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Apple TV+: all the originals and licensing announcements of April

Movies - scripted
  • Ordered thriller movie Killers of the Flower Moon (Martin Scorsese)
  • Orders comedy movie Mr Lucky (Robert Zemeckis, Aaron & Jordan Kandell)
  • Drama film CODA premieres 210813. also in theaters
Series - scripted
  • Orders anthology series Crowded Room (Tom Holland; 10 episodes)
  • Drama series The Mosquito Coast (Justin Theroux, Melissa George; 7 episodes) premieres 210430 (weekly releases)
  • Orders anthology series The Crowded Room (on mental illness; Akiva Goldsman, Tom Holland; 10 episodes)
  • Season 2 of comedy series Mythic Quest premieres 210507 (weekly releases)
  • Orders comedy series Acapulco
  • Drama series Lisey’s Story (Stephen King; Julianne Moore, Clive Owen) premieres 210604
  • Orders thriller series Now And Then
  • Dramedy series Ted Lasso season 2 premieres 210723
  • Series Trying season 2 premieres 210521
  • Orders series Last Days of Ptolemy Grey (Samuel L Jackson, Dominique Fishback, Walton Goggins, Omar Miller; 6 episodes)
  • Aerobics dramedy series Physical (10 episodes; Rose Byrne) premieres 210618
  • Drama series The Mosquito Coast (Justin Theroux, Melissa George) premieres 210430
Series - unscripted
Movies - unscripted

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Sunday, April 25, 2021

Week 16 in Telecoms, Internet, Media

CORPORATE

  • General
  • Ratings
  • Results
    • VodafoneZiggo: Impact Report 2020; 100% green energy, net CO2 emissions zero, 7501 employees, total 4572 towers, 118m IoT connections, uptime mobile 99.8%, uptime fixed 99.9%, NPS: Vodafone converged consumer +27, Ziggo converged consumer +7, hollandsnieuwe +22, Vodafone converged business +6, Ziggo converged business -4; Launches CSR targets 2025 (People Planet Progress): halve environmental impact, support 2m people in society
    • Eurofiber: 2020; 38300 network km, adds 40 km/week, 32932 customer connections, 215 datacenters, NPS +33, market share corporate fiber 26%, 100% renewable energy, total invested EUR 820m (50% of annual revenues)
    • Vodafone Ireland: Vodafone IE 2020/21, total 1020 employees
    • Orange Belgium: 21Q1; maintains guidance 2021: rev growth LSD, EBITDA AL EUR 320-340m, capex EUR 200-220m (incl MWingz 50/50 JV with Proximus)
    • Orange: 21Q1
    • Telia: 21Q1; outlook 2021 unchanged: SR flat-LSD, adj mEBITDA flat-LSD, capex SEK 14.5-15.5b; outlook 2021-2023 unchanged: SR LSD growth, adj EBITDA LSD-MSD growth, capex/sales 15% by 2023
    • Tele2: 21Q1; book value T-Mobile NL stake (25%) SEK 7.163b, profit contribution 21Q1 SEK -3m; proposes extraordinary dividend 3.00 SEK/share = SEK 2.1b
    • AT&T: 21Q1; outlook 2021: rev growth 1%, EPS stable, capital investment $22b o/w capex $17b, FCF $26b, div pay-out ratio high 50s
    • Verizon: 21Q1
    • EQT: 21Q1
    • Netflix: 21Q1; highlights:
      • net additions 21H1 slow due to pull forward and delayed slate dynamics plus typical seasonality (not new competitors); biggest competitors linear TV & YouTube, no material effect expected from economies reopening after corona virus pandemic
      • Targets 2021: to spend >$17b cash on content (2020: $11.8b), oper margin 20%, to maintain $10-15b in gross debt, to launch SBB $5b 21Q2, password sharing crackdown will not be aggressive; plans movies based on Sony IP based on distr deal [see 210408]
      • Viewing stats first 28 days: series Firefly Lane 49m, Cobla Kai season 3 45m,  Fate: The Winx Saga 57m, Ginny & Georgia season 1 52m, movies I Care A Lot 56m, YES DAY 62m, Outside the Wire 66m, To All the Boys I’ve Loved Before (final movie) 51m, foreign productions  Below Zero (Spain) 47m, Space Sweepers (S Korea) 26m, Squared Love (Poland) 31m, Who Killed Sara? (Mexico) 55m, Lupin (France) 76m
    • Snap: 20Q1; outlook 21Q2: rev $820-840m, adj EBITDA between -20m and zero

  • CSR
    • Telia
      • Launches new sustainability goals: empower societies in the Nordics & Baltics to achieve zero CO2 & waste by 2030, reach 1m people through digital inclusion initiatives by 2025, implement winning privacy & security strategies by 2023 to gain & maintain customers’ trust
      • Accenture report for Telia The Shift: The Role of Telcos in the Circular Economy: applying circular principles unlocks values of $45-80b annually

    • Orange PL sets climate goals: CO2 reduction, increase in renewable energy
    • Akamai: New sustainability goals: 5 goals in 3 areas (Akamai intelligent edge platform, communities in which it lives, works & operates, global supply chain): 100% Renewably-sourced Energy, 50% More Energy-Efficient Platform, 100% Platform Emissions Mitigationm Responsible Supply Chain Management, Global Expansion of 100% Electronic Waste Recycling Program
    • Amazon: The Climate Pledge reaches >100 signatories (5m employees in 16 countries), incl Elisa, Telefónica
  • WFH

NETWORKS

  • FTTH
    • Netherlands

SERVICES

  • Telecoms
    • Telenet launches ONE (to replace WIGO and YUGO): internet access (fixed & mobile & WiFi, no data cap), pricing speed-based pricing (at home 150 Mb/s or 1 Gb/s; away from 30 Mb/s), dependent on household; TV as add-on (managed via TV-box or OTT via Flow app); free extra data SIM (optionally for Minimodem: hotspot for max 10 devices)
  • Video
    • Pathe Thuis: Reaches 1m active users; usage 2021: total 7m films, average 2.2 viewers per film; distr deal with KPN from 210701: access to 3700 titles
    • Samsung: Expands Samsung TV Plus (on Samsung smart TVs) to NL, BE, LU, SE, FI, NO, DK, IE, PT; total 23 countries; also for Galaxy smartphones & tablets
    • Sony: Plans to trial PlayStation Plus Video Pass (15 movies, 6 series) in Poland, free for PlayStation Plus subs
    • Walt Disney: Content deal with Sony for Disney+, Hulu, ABC, Disney Channels, Freeform, FX, NatGeo in US for new theatrical releases & library titles 2022-2026 for Pay 1 TV window (after Netflix)
    • MTS plans OTT service Kion 210420 (to add AVOD tier end 2021)
  • Music, audio, podcasts
    • Apple
      • Launches Podcast Subscriptions in 170 countries per creator, price set by creator (from 49 c/mo in US; with Family Sharing)
      • Apple takes 30% in first year, 15% thereafter
      • Launches Apple Podcasters Program for creators, 20 $/mo
    • Spotify: WSJ: plans podcast subscription, creators keep 100% of fees (currently hosts 2.2m podcasts)
    • SoundCloud: Reaches 100k creators
    • Reddit: Launches Reddit Talk for subreddits, with moderators [a la Clubhouse]
    • Facebook: Plans new audio services in 3-6 mo
      • Soundbites (recorded audio messages)
      • Podcasts (discovery)
      • Live Audio Rooms (in Groups in Facebook & Messenger) [a la Clubhouse]
      • establishes Audio Creator Fund
      • partners with Spotify to integrate music (Project Boombox)
  • Hardware
    • Google: Fitbit launches Luxe, $150 (incl 6 mo Fitbit Premium): fitness tracker
    • Apple: Spring Loaded event
      • Launches new iPad (with M1 processor)
      • new Apple TV (with A12 Bionic processor, 4K, new Siri remote control)
      • AirTags (with U1 chip; keychain device for locating devices)
      • iOS 14.5
      • new iMac computer (with M1 chip) with new Magic Keyboard (with Touch ID)
      • launches Apple Card Family (to build joined credit)
      • launches podcast subscriptions

REGULATORY

  • Spectrum auctions
    • Slovenia raises EUR 164m from multiband auction (700, 1500, 2.1, 2.3, 3.5, 26) from Telekom Slovenia (EUR 52m), Telemach (EUR 52m), A1 (EUR 42m), T2 (EUR 18m)
    • Energistyrelsen (DK) raises DKK 2.08b from multiband auction (1.5, 2.1, 2.3, 3.5, 26 GHz); pops coverage demands 3.5 GHz band: 60% YE 2023, 75% YE 2025
      • TDC Net 45 MHz in 1,500 MHz band, 40 MHz in 2,100 MHz band, 40 MHz in 2,300 MHz band, 130 MHz in 3.5 GHz band, 1,250 MHz in 26 GHz band for DKK 795m
      • Hi3G 40 MHz in 2,100 MHz band, 120 MHz in 3.5 GHz band, 1,000 MHz in 26 GHz band for DKK 541m
      • TT-Network (Telia, Telenor) 45 MHz in 1,500 MHz band, 40 MHz in 2,100 MHz band, 140 MHz in 3.5 GHz band (incl 60 MHz with a leasing obligation), 600 MHz in 26 GHz band for DKK 741m
    • ACMA (Australia) raises AUD 648m from 26 GHz auction; Dense Air 2 lots for AUD 28.7m, Mobile JV 86 lots for AUD 108m, Optus Mobile 116 lots for AUD 226m, Pentanet 4 lots for AUD 7.90m, Telstra 150 lots for AUD 277m

  • Platforms
    • EC proposes harmonised rules on AI; list of high-risk use cases (critical infrastructure, college admissions, loan applications) subject to supervision and standards for development & use; fine on violations max 6% of annual global revenues; to be approved by European Council & European Parliament
    • US Senate antitrust hearing with Apple, Google over app store fees [monopoly rents]

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Netflix: all the originals & licensing announcements of Week 16

Movies - scripted
  • Crime movie Ferry (Frank Lammers; NL) premieres 210514
  • Production of movie The Swimmers (Sally El Hosaini) starts, with Working Title
  • Orders movie Perusasion, after Jane Austen (Dakota Johnson)
  • Orders thriller movie Rebel Ridge (AnnaSophia Robb, Emory Cohen)
  • Movie Oxygen (France) premieres 210512
  • Movie Dancing Queens premieres 210603
Series - scripted
Unscripted
Other

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Thursday, April 22, 2021

Netflix 21Q1

21Q1
  • net additions 21H1 slow due to pull forward and delayed slate dynamics plus typical seasonality
  • biggest competitors linear TV & YouTube
Targets 2021
Viewing stats first 28 days
  • series
    • Firefly Lane 49m
    • Cobla Kai season 3 45m
    • Fate: The Winx Saga 57m
    • Ginny & Georgia season 1 52m
  • movies
    • I Care A Lot 56m
    • YES DAY 62m
    • Outside the Wire 66m
    • To All the Boys I’ve Loved Before (final movie) 51m
  • foreign productions
    • Below Zero (Spain) 47m
    • Space Sweepers (S Korea) 26m
    • Squared Love (Poland) 31m
    • Who Killed Sara? (Mexico) 55m
    • Lupin (France) 76m



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Wednesday, April 21, 2021

Netflix: all the originals and licensing announcements of Week 15

Movies - scripted
  • Orders live-action movie Gundam
  • Orders Anna Karenina adaptation from Gazprom-Media, plans more orders from Russia
  • Zombie movie Army of the Dead (Zack Snyder) premieres 210521 & in select theaters
  • Dance of the 41 (Mexico) premieres 210512
  • Drama movie Fatma (Turkey) premieres 210427
  • Orders crime movie The Poet
  • Ordered vampire movie Day Shift (Jamie Foxx, Meagan Good, Karla Souza, Snoop Dogg)
  • Ordered movie Spaceman (Adam Sandler, Carey Mulligan)
Series - scripted
Series - unscripted
Movies - unscripted
Other: orders Spanish originals
    • 3 drama series (Intimidad, Baruca, Si lo hubiera sabido)
    • dating series Amor con fianza
    • reality series Georgina on Georgina Rodríguez
    • movie A través de mi ventana
    • romcom movie Eres Tu
    • season 2 (final) of series El Vecino premieres 210521


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