Wednesday, October 20, 2004

Trends 13-19 september 2004:

Telecoms:
· FTTH, PLC: steun van FCC (FTTN max 500 feet)
· Broadband Ned: Impulscommissie adviseert overheidsinvestering 340m (Garantiefonds 260m in 15 jr voor infra (techniek-agnostisch); Stimuleringsfonds 80m in 4 jr voor projecten in sectoren (zorg, onderwijs, mobiliteit, veiligheid))
· DSL: uitbr dekking Verizon (26 staten + DC)
· Triple Play: intr Livebox doo Wanadoo in Ned
· IP TV: plan Tiscali Ita
· LLU: intr 12 Mbps door Tiscali Ita
· WiFi: Cingular breidt dekking uit door samenw met SBC’s WiFi per 06; SBC combineert WiFi met DSL (samen 29 $/mnd); SBC combineert VoIP en WiFi per 05; intr CallVantage Local door AT&T (unlimited alleen local)
· WLL: plan Nepal Telecom
· VoIP: Verizon combineert met DSL (samen 30 $/mnd); Tiscali in Ita; Sununu wants to regulate trhough new Telecoms Bill, M Powell wants no state regulation & will propose to the FCC within 1 month; Germany intros non-geografic code for VoIP (032) or geografic code, must be fit for emergency calls (112), wants ‘naked DSL’; high growth of Skype’s ‘minutes served’
· 4G: trial Aloha met Flarion (Flash-OFDM); all Flarion with Netgear (Flash-OFDM in Netgear WiFi products)
· Regulation: Sununu, McCain & Stevens aim for new Telecoms Bill in 2005 (VoIP/USF, intercarrier compensation)
· Convergence: cellular/WiFi at Cingular; DSL/WiFi at SBC; WiFi/VoIP at SBC; VoIP/WiFi at Vonage/Boingo; FlashOFDM/WiFi at Flarion/Netgear; EDGE/UMTS handset van Nokia (6630; bij TIM; eerder: World Phone van Verizon (GSM/CDMA), World Wind van China Unicom (GSM/CDMA))
· Spectrum/license auctions: 3rd GSM-license Croatie cancelled (new tender end of October); NextWave delayed 2 weeks to 260105
· Job cuts: Sprint
· Share buy-back: Telkom
· Venture capital: in Bezeq, uit Telfort
· IPO: 1e notering Hutchison Tel Int 14/10 (prijs 11.67, 1e koers 11.35, slot 11.26); 1e notering StarHub 0.95; Etisalat okt 04; plan CelTel 05 in London

Internet:
· Search: intr desktop search door Google
· Social networking: intr Lycos Circles; funding voor LinkedIn; Evita (= IAC) intr restaurant/entertainment recommendations; acq Metails.com door Buy.com; planned intro of new community by eBay
· Retail sales US sep: +1.5% (verw +0.6)
· Holiday sales US (Thanksgiving – Christmas): verw +20% tot 13.2 mrd (Forrester; 03: +31%)
· IPO: PlanetOut in handel 14/10 (prijs 9, 1e koers 9.32, slot 10.30); plan eLong (travle site China)

Media:
· Muziek: intr MSN Music in Ned; deal ASCAP (19k leden; 7.5m composities + affiliates abroad) met RMLC (12k radiostations US), incl internet streams (1.7 mrd in 8 jr)
· Digital tv: groei HDTV hoog (8.7m households eind 03, 14m eind 04, 37m 08) maar niet voldoende voor FCC deadline voor analogue switch-off (Strategy Analytics); hoge groei IPG (killer app; sales 207m in 03, 282m in 04, 1 mrd in 08, CAGR 37%), ‘big 3’ winnaars Gemstar-TV Guide, Microsoft, Tribune Media Services (In-Stat/MDR); weinig belangstelling stand-alone DVR (Jupiter)
· Ads B2B US: aug: pages +3.7% yoy, spending +4.6% yoy; YTD: pages +0.7%, spending +1.7% (ABM)
· In-game ads: start test Nielsen Ent (VNU) met Activision; Yankee verwacht hoge groei (79m in 03, 260m in 08)

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